DPVis integrates HMMs into visualizations for disease progression analysis.
problem Challenges in interpreting HMMs for disease progression modeling.
method Design study with clinical experts, visualizations of HMM parameters and outcomes.
result DPVis successfully evaluates and summarizes disease progression models.
Bayesian model identifies health disparities in disease progression.
problem Health disparities bias disease progression models.
method Interpretable Bayesian model accounting for three disparities.
result Model identifies and corrects for health disparities.
Alzheimer's Disease (AD) is characterized by a cascade of biomarkers becoming abnormal, the pathophysiology of which is very complex and largely unknown. Event-based modeling (EBM) is a data-driven technique to estimate the sequence in which biomarkers for a disease become abnormal based on cross-sectional data. It can…
Bayesian meta-learning predicts Alzheimer's disease progression.
problem Predicting individual Alzheimer's disease progression from limited data.
method Bayesian meta-learning approach that dynamically predicts disease score distributions.
result Bayesian meta-learner outperforms single-task models and deterministic meta-learners, especially for long-term predictions.
Alzheimer's disease (AD) is a degenerative brain disease impairing a person's ability to perform day to day activities. The clinical manifestations of Alzheimer's disease are characterized by heterogeneity in age, disease span, progression rate, impairment of memory and cognitive abilities. Due to these variabilities, …
Enhances disease progression modeling using LLMs for complex brain connectivity.
problem Inaccurate predictions of disease spread due to oversimplified brain connectivity models.
method Uses LLMs to synthesize multi-modal relationships and learn disease trajectories from longitudinal data.
result Superior prediction accuracy and interpretability compared to traditional methods.
Study uses machine learning and survival analysis to predict CKD progression.
problem Early detection and management of CKD to reduce ESRD risk.
method Combines machine learning and classical statistical models to identify novel CKD progression predictors.
result Deep learning models outperform other methods in predicting CKD progression.
Improves disease progression prediction using auxiliary surrogate labels and health markers.
problem Challenges in predicting disease progression due to unknown true disease states.
method Integrates hidden Markov model with time-varying discriminative classification model.
result Significant improvement in distinguishing LBD from AD using objective markers.
Develops CSI for predicting disease progression from sparse data.
problem Lack of frequent clinical metrics for disease progression.
method Machine learning framework (CSI) for analyzing disease progression from sparse observations.
result CSI effectively predicts disease progression from sparse data.
Modeling disease progression using irregular time intervals in EHRs.
problem Challenges in analyzing temporal data from EHRs.
method Developed a Markovian generative model using EHR data.
result Model accurately recovers underlying disease progression patterns from irregular time intervals.
Modeling disease progression in brain images using monotonic Gaussian Processes.
problem Disentangling spatio-temporal disease trajectories from brain imaging data.
method Spatio-temporal matrix factorization with anatomically plausible priors, monotonic Gaussian Processes, and sparse codes.
result Monotonic Gaussian Processes model realistic disease trajectories in brain imaging data.
Disease progression models are instrumental in predicting individual-level health trajectories and understanding disease dynamics. Existing models are capable of providing either accurate predictions of patients prognoses or clinically interpretable representations of disease pathophysiology, but not both. In this pape…
Modeling disease progression in healthcare administrative databases is complicated by the fact that patients are observed only at irregular intervals when they seek healthcare services. In a longitudinal cohort of 76,888 patients with chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD), we used a continuous-time hidden Markov…
New method interprets deep embeddings for diabetes patient clustering.
problem Interpreting deep embeddings for disease progression.
method Patient clustering approach using deep embeddings.
result Clinically meaningful insights into diabetes progression patterns.
DIM shows promise in predicting Alzheimer's progression.
problem Predicting Alzheimer's disease progression from brain imaging.
method Used variants of Deep InfoMax (DIM) for brain imaging analysis.
result DIM outperforms supervised AlexNet and ResNet in Alzheimer's progression prediction.
Deep learning predicts AMD progression from longitudinal fundus images.
problem Predicting future stages of age-related macular degeneration (AMD).
method InceptionV3 feature vectors, interval scaling, Recurrent Neural Network.
result 0.878 sensitivity, 0.887 specificity, 0.950 AUC.
Study examines APOE's impact on AD progression using a novel DEBM approach.
problem Understanding APOE's role in AD progression and developing targeted clinical trials.
method Developed a discriminative event-based model (DEBM) and proposed a stratified approach to improve model accuracy.
result Identified APOE carriers' impact on AD progression timeline, aiding clinical trial selection.
Study compares neural and statistical models for Parkinson's disease progression from voice data.
problem Difficult statistical analysis of longitudinal voice biomarkers due to subject correlation, small cohorts, and varied disease trajectories.
method Evaluated Neural Mixed Effects (NME), Generalized Neural Network Mixed Models (GNMMs), and semi-parametric Generalized Additive Mixed Models (GAMMs).
result GAMMs achieve stronger predictive performance and retain interpretable smooth effects and subject-level structure.
Ensemble model predicts AD progression from CN status with high accuracy.
problem Early prediction of clinical progression from cognitively normal to mild cognitive impairment or Alzheimer's disease.
method Ensemble survival analysis combining penalized Cox regression, advanced survival models, and aggregation techniques.
result Ensemble model achieved peak C-index of 0.907 and integrated time-dependent AUC of 0.904, outperforming baseline models.
Most approaches to machine learning from electronic health data can only predict a single endpoint. Here, we present an alternative that uses unsupervised deep learning to simulate detailed patient trajectories. We use data comprising 18-month trajectories of 44 clinical variables from 1908 patients with Mild Cognitive…
EBM uses high-dimensional imaging biomarkers to improve dementia progression estimation.
problem Current EBMs only use scalar biomarkers, limiting accuracy from cross-sectional data.
method Proposes nDEBM, a novel method using semi-supervised SVM on voxel-wise imaging biomarkers.
result nDEBM outperforms state-of-the-art EBM methods using regional volume biomarkers.
New method predicts AD progression using MEG brain networks.
problem Early diagnosis and prediction of Alzheimer's disease progression.
method MG2G, a deep learning method that maps brain networks into a latent space.
result MG2G detects subtle brain connectivity patterns and predicts AD progression.
Method detects airway dilatation with high accuracy.
problem Detecting airway dilatation in lung diseases like IPF.
method Probabilistic model of abrupt relative variations, Bayesian Changepoint Detection.
result Model detects airway dilatation with 2.5mm accuracy.
We propose a method to predict the subject-specific longitudinal progression of brain structures extracted from baseline MRI, and evaluate its performance on Alzheimer's disease data. The disease progression is modeled as a trajectory on a group of diffeomorphisms in the context of large deformation diffeomorphic metri…
In this work, we consider the problem of predicting the course of a progressive disease, such as cancer or Alzheimer's. Progressive diseases often start with mild symptoms that might precede a diagnosis, and each patient follows their own trajectory. Patient trajectories exhibit wild variability, which can be associate…
Patient subtyping based on temporal observations can lead to significantly nuanced subtyping that acknowledges the dynamic characteristics of diseases. Existing methods for subtyping trajectories treat the evolution of clinical observations as a homogeneous process or employ data available at regular intervals. In real…
HMRNN combines HMMs and neural networks for Alzheimer's disease forecasting.
problem Improving disease progression modeling with hidden states not fully known.
method Developed HMRNN combining HMMs and recurrent neural networks.
result HMRNN improves disease forecasting and offers novel clinical interpretation.
LHM integrates expert ODEs with neural ODEs for disease progression prediction.
problem Predicting disease progression under medications using limited data.
method Integrating expert-designed ODEs with machine-learned Neural ODEs.
result LHM consistently outperforms previous methods, especially in small sample regimes.
Proposes LSTM algorithm for robust Alzheimer's disease progression modeling with missing data.
problem Challenges in modeling disease progression using incomplete longitudinal data.
method Utilizes Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM) networks for Alzheimer's disease progression modeling with a generalized training rule for handling missing data.
result Achieves significantly lower mean absolute error (MAE) than alternatives with p < 0.05.
Transformers improve Alzheimer's disease progression prediction by accounting for irregular biomarker histories.
problem Difficult prediction of medium-horizon Alzheimer's disease progression due to tied clinical scores and irregular biomarker observations.
method Developed a residual gap-aware transformer that combines statistical reference with transformer-based residual learning.
result The proposed model reduces mean error and improves prediction-observation correlation compared to baseline models.
Here we present DIVE: Data-driven Inference of Vertexwise Evolution. DIVE is an image-based disease progression model with single-vertex resolution, designed to reconstruct long-term patterns of brain pathology from short-term longitudinal data sets. DIVE clusters vertex-wise biomarker measurements on the cortical surf…
CRBM generates digital twins for MS patients, aiding in disease progression analysis.
problem Characterizing and analyzing disease progression in MS patients.
method Unsupervised machine learning with Conditional Restricted Boltzmann Machines (CRBMs).
result Generated digital twins are statistically indistinguishable from actual subjects.
Simulation framework assesses ROI of chronic disease adherence and policy timing.
problem Uncertainty in ROI of adherence-enhancing interventions under heterogeneous patient behavior and socioeconomic variation.
method Simulation-based framework integrating disease progression, time-varying adherence, and policy timing.
result Early and adaptive interventions yield highest ROI, exceeding 20% under certain conditions.
Project predicts Alzheimer's progression using neural networks and novel data processing.
problem Difficulty in early identification of Alzheimer's patients.
method Used machine learning, specifically neural networks, and a novel pre-processing technique.
result Neural network model accurately predicts AD progression with high accuracy.
Case vs control comparisons have been the classical approach to the study of neurological diseases. However, most patients will not fall cleanly into either group. Instead, clinicians will typically find patients that cannot be classified as having clearly progressed into the disease state. For those subjects, very lit…
Longitudinal patient data has the potential to improve clinical risk stratification models for disease. However, chronic diseases that progress slowly over time are often heterogeneous in their clinical presentation. Patients may progress through disease stages at varying rates. This leads to pathophysiological misalig…
StageNet improves health risk prediction by integrating disease stage information.
problem Improving health risk prediction for patients with chronic conditions.
method StageNet uses a stage-aware LSTM and stage-adaptive convolutional modules to extract and integrate disease stage information.
result StageNet achieves up to 12% higher AUPRC for risk prediction and over 58% higher Calinski-Harabasz score for patient subtyping compared to state-of-the-art models.
AdaptiveNet tackles disease progression prediction in rheumatoid arthritis using deep neural networks.
problem Predicting disease progression in rheumatoid arthritis using clinical data.
method AdaptiveNet, a novel recurrent neural network architecture, that handles multiple lists of different events and missing data.
result AdaptiveNet outperforms classical baselines in disease progression prediction.
Bayesian approach models neurodegenerative diseases without clinical labels.
problem Personalized, predictive modeling of neurodegenerative diseases.
method Probabilistic programmed deep kernel learning combining Gaussian processes and neural networks.
result Surpasses deep learning in accuracy and timeliness of predicting neurodegeneration.
Study predicts diabetes biomarkers using wearable data.
problem Understanding and predicting diabetes progression.
method Wide and deep neural network with LSTM structure.
result Model predicts biomarkers with low error rates.
New algorithm predicts lung cancer progression and mortality.
problem Predicting semi-competing risk outcomes in lung cancer.
method Neural Expectation-Maximization algorithm for multi-state outcomes.
result Estimates non-parametric baseline hazards and risk functions.
In this paper, we introduce the use of a personalized Gaussian Process model (pGP) to predict the key metrics of Alzheimer's Disease progression (MMSE, ADAS-Cog13, CDRSB and CS) based on each patient's previous visits. We start by learning a population-level model using multi-modal data from previously seen patients us…
Wide and deep neural network predicts Alzheimer's progression from shape and clinical data.
problem Predicting Alzheimer's disease progression from shape and clinical data.
method Fused anatomical shape and tabular clinical data in a neural network, employing survival analysis loss.
result The model outperforms shape and clinical models individually.
Deep neural network classifies DaTscan SPECT images for Parkinson's Disease.
problem Early diagnosis of Parkinson's Disease through objective analysis of SPECT images.
method InceptionV3 architecture with custom binary classifier, 10-fold cross validation.
result Deep neural network achieves high accuracy in classifying DaTscan SPECT images.
CoI framework models clinical feature interactions, revealing temporal dependencies and enhancing transparency.
problem Capturing latent, time-varying dependencies among clinical features in time-series data.
method Chain-of-Influence (CoI) framework constructs an explicit, time-unfolded graph of feature interactions.
result Achieves state-of-the-art predictive performance (AUROC of 0.960 on CKD progression and 0.950 on ICU mortality).
New model selects more promising patients for knee osteoarthritis trials.
problem Selecting patients likely to benefit from osteoarthritis treatments.
method Multi-classifier prediction from longitudinal data, cost-sensitive learning, feature selection.
result Model reduces by 20-25% the number of patients showing no progression.
Deep learning classifies keratoconus patients with high accuracy.
problem Accurately identifying keratoconus patients for early intervention.
method Unsupervised and semi-supervised machine learning models using corneal topography and clinical data.
result Unsupervised method with 29 variables shows better classification accuracy.
Prediction of the future trajectory of a disease is an important challenge for personalized medicine and population health management. However, many complex chronic diseases exhibit large degrees of heterogeneity, and furthermore there is not always a single readily available biomarker to quantify disease severity. Eve…