A locally-built, LLM-digested index of recent arXiv papers in quant finance, geometry/topology, and statistical ML — keyword search served straight from SQLite on this machine.
Quantum strategy optimizes wealth growth in a double-or-nothing game.
Paper introduces MADL loss function for better AIS model optimization.
New methods improve neural directed link prediction across all sub-tasks.
LLMs translate natural language trading intents into correct option strategies using a domain-specific language.
Many applications in machine learning require optimizing a function whose true gradient is unknown, but where surrogate gradient information (directions that may be correlated with, but not necessarily identical to, the true gradient) is available instead. This arises when an approximate gradient is easier to compute t…
Accurate time series prediction over long future horizons is challenging and of great interest to both practitioners and academics. As a well-known intelligent algorithm, the standard formulation of Support Vector Regression (SVR) could be taken for multi-step-ahead time series prediction, only relying either on iterat…
Algorithmic trading is well studied in traditional financial markets. However, it has received less attention in centralized cryptocurrency exchanges. The Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) attributed the flash crash, one of the most turbulent periods in the history of financial markets that saw the Dow…
We propose a novel approach for learning node representations in directed graphs, which maintains separate views or embedding spaces for the two distinct node roles induced by the directionality of the edges. We argue that the previous approaches either fail to encode the edge directionality or their encodings cannot b…
Gradients help find global optima in complex functions.
Evolution strategy (ES) has been shown great promise in many challenging reinforcement learning (RL) tasks, rivaling other state-of-the-art deep RL methods. Yet, there are two limitations in the current ES practice that may hinder its otherwise further capabilities. First, most current methods rely on Monte Carlo type …
Study relaxes identification assumptions for natural direct effects in non-randomized settings.
LLMs outperform human analysts in predicting earnings direction.
In this paper, we propose the use of a black-box optimization method called deterministic Mesh Adaptive Direct Search (MADS) algorithm with orthogonal directions (Ortho-MADS) for the selection of hyperparameters of Support Vector Machines with a Gaussian kernel. Different from most of the methods in the literature that…
The study examines stability of Sobolev inequalities on manifolds with Ricci bounds.
Selective classification improves trading strategies by abstaining from predictions.
Study finds users mostly use recent market and decision information to guess market direction.
We consider a trader who wants to direct his portfolio towards a set of acceptable wealths given by a convex risk measure. We propose a black-box algorithm, whose inputs are the joint law of stock prices and the convex risk measure, and whose outputs are the numerical values of initial capital requirement and the funct…
This paper proposes an exploration method for deep reinforcement learning based on parameter space noise. Recent studies have experimentally shown that parameter space noise results in better exploration than the commonly used action space noise. Previous methods devised a way to update the diagonal covariance matrix o…
Efficient exploration remains a major challenge for reinforcement learning. One reason is that the variability of the returns often depends on the current state and action, and is therefore heteroscedastic. Classical exploration strategies such as upper confidence bound algorithms and Thompson sampling fail to appropri…
Optimal trading strategies in fluctuating financial markets are analyzed using complex mathematical models.
Multi-step-ahead time series prediction is one of the most challenging research topics in the field of time series modeling and prediction, and is continually under research. Recently, the multiple-input several multiple-outputs (MISMO) modeling strategy has been proposed as a promising alternative for multi-step-ahead…
We consider optimal investment problems for a diffusion market model with non-observable random drifts that evolve as an Ito's process. Admissible strategies do not use direct observations of the market parameters, but rather use historical stock prices. For a non-linear problem with a general performance criterion, th…
Machine learning models predict EUR/USD currency direction with 58.52% accuracy.
Model for directed synthesis of audio textures using multi-scale RNNs.
Transfer learning have been frequently used to improve deep neural network training through incorporating weights of pre-trained networks as the starting-point of optimization for regularization. While deep transfer learning can usually boost the performance with better accuracy and faster convergence, transferring wei…
Study uses VC correlation to uncover directional financial relationships.
In Biology, all motor enzymes operate on the same principle: they trap favourable brownian fluctuations in order to generate directed forces and to move. Whether it is possible or not to copy one such strategy to play the market was the starting point of our investigations. We found the answer is yes. In this paper we …
Improves RL planning by proposing sub-goals hierarchically.
Stochastic neighbor embedding (SNE) and related nonlinear manifold learning algorithms achieve high-quality low-dimensional representations of similarity data, but are notoriously slow to train. We propose a generic formulation of embedding algorithms that includes SNE and other existing algorithms, and study their rel…
New -algebra approach unifies machine learning strategies.
We propose a method to compute optimal control paths for autonomous vehicles deployed for the purpose of inferring a velocity field. In addition to being advected by the flow, the vehicles are able to effect a fixed relative speed with arbitrary control over direction. It is this direction that is used as the basis for…
China integrates ESG into corporate strategy for sustainable growth.
ConMeZO speeds up zeroth-order optimization for large language models.
New method identifies algo trading strategies as liquidity consumers or providers.
The paper analyzes trading strategies in a competitive market with incomplete information.
We introduce and study the notion of sure profit via flash strategy, consisting of a high-frequency limit of buy-and-hold trading strategies. In a fully general setting, without imposing any semimartingale restriction, we prove that there are no sure profits via flash strategies if and only if asset prices do not exhib…
Paper studies constrained control games with a novel approximation method.
Generative adversarial networks are used to generate images but still their convergence properties are not well understood. There have been a few studies who intended to investigate the stability properties of GANs as a dynamical system. This short writing can be seen in that direction. Among the proposed methods for s…
Paper optimizes trading profits by predicting price direction using ensemble models.
We develop an adversarial-reinforcement learning scheme for microswimmers in statistically homogeneous and isotropic turbulent fluid flows, in both two (2D) and three dimensions (3D). We show that this scheme allows microswimmers to find non-trivial paths, which enable them to reach a target on average in less time tha…
New method for personalized pricing using invalid instrumental variables.
We study a game-theoretic variant of the maximum circulation problem. In a flow allocation game, we are given a directed flow network. Each node is a rational agent and can strategically allocate any incoming flow to the outgoing edges. Given the strategy choices of all agents, a maximal circulation that adheres to the…
We develop a Markovian approximation for SVV models to compute hedging strategies.
Variational Optimization forms a differentiable upper bound on an objective. We show that approaches such as Natural Evolution Strategies and Gaussian Perturbation, are special cases of Variational Optimization in which the expectations are approximated by Gaussian sampling. These approaches are of particular interest …
This paper compares imputation and direct parameter estimation methods for missing data in correlation matrix visualization.
The study analyzes optimization trajectories in neural networks to reveal redundancy and redundancy-reducing strategies.
New methods improve LLM preference optimization by intelligently weighting multiple reference models.
Portfolio traders strive to identify dynamic portfolio allocation schemes so that their total budgets are efficiently allocated through the investment horizon. This study proposes a novel portfolio trading strategy in which an intelligent agent is trained to identify an optimal trading action by using deep Q-learning. …