This review explores causal decision-making to improve decision quality.
problem Effective decision-making requires understanding causal relationships.
method Causal structure learning, causal effect learning, and causal policy learning.
result Challenges in causal decision-making are identified and recent advances are discussed.
This paper develops a framework for efficient decision-making under time pressure.
problem Efficient decision-making under time pressure and subjective tradeoffs.
method Unified framework for evidence-based decision-making under time pressure.
result Ability to model and understand decision-making behavior under time constraints.
Study minimax-optimal rates for offline decision-making with function approximation.
problem Statistical complexity of offline decision-making with function approximation.
method Near minimax-optimal rates for stochastic contextual bandits and Markov decision processes, using pseudo-dimension and behavior policy.
result Established performance limits and new characterization of behavior policy.
Framework for robust decision making in changing environments with privacy constraints.
problem Interactive decision making in changing environments with constraints.
method Hybrid Decision Making with Structured Observations (hybrid DMSO) framework, local differentially private decision making, query-based learning, robust and smooth decision making.
result Strong connections and bounds derived for DEC, SQ dimension, local minimax complexity, learnability, and joint differential privacy.
Paper tackles risk-sensitive decision-making under uncertainty.
problem Risk-sensitive decision-making problem under uncertainty.
method Formulated as a stochastic control problem, delineated necessary optimality conditions.
result Illustrative examples from optimal betting and inventory management support the theory.
New active learning strategy improves decision-making accuracy.
problem Maximizing decision-making accuracy in sequential data acquisition.
method Introduces a novel active learning criterion that maximizes expected information gain on the posterior decision distribution.
result Improved performance in decision-making accuracy compared to existing alternatives.
The paper tackles individualized decision-making under unmeasured confounding, providing a novel minimax solution and a paradox.
problem Unmeasured confounding in causal inference leads to biased estimates and affects individualized decision-making.
method The authors establish a formal link between individualized decision-making under partial identification and classical decision theory, providing a minimax solution and a paradox.
result A novel minimax solution for individualized decision-making/policy assignment is provided, and an interesting paradox is drawn.
The Chain-of-Decision approach improves forecasting of financial professionals' trading decisions.
problem Challenges in forecasting professionals' behaviors, especially in trading decisions.
method Integrates an opinion-generator-in-the-loop to provide subjective analysis based on news items.
result Promising improvements in the proposed tasks' performance.
The study examines robust decision-making in volatile financial markets, finding action robustness is more impactful than uncertainty tolerance.
problem Sequential decision making in high-frequency markets under evolving uncertainty.
method Analyzes two dimensions of robustness: uncertainty tolerance and action robustness, using simulations and empirical evidence.
result Action robustness has a larger impact on profitability than uncertainty tolerance, and excessive robustness can reduce profitability in illiquid markets.
A new framework designs experiments for better decision-making.
problem Suboptimal experimental designs for downstream decision-making.
method Amortized decision-aware Bayesian Experimental Design (BED) with Transformer Neural Decision Process (TNDP).
result TNDP effectively designs experiments and facilitates accurate decision-making.
Decision making based on behavioral and neural observations of living systems has been extensively studied in brain science, psychology, and other disciplines. Decision-making mechanisms have also been experimentally implemented in physical processes, such as single photons and chaotic lasers. The findings of these exp…
We model human decision-making behaviors in a risk-taking task using inverse reinforcement learning (IRL) for the purposes of understanding real human decision making under risk. To the best of our knowledge, this is the first work applying IRL to reveal the implicit reward function in human risk-taking decision making…
An online decision-making algorithm using stochastic gradient descent for big data.
problem Efficiently updating decision rules in online decision making with big data.
method Stochastic gradient descent for online updates, asymptotic normality of estimators.
result Asymptotic normality of parameter and value estimators, enabling statistical inference.
New algorithms for fast online decision making using neural networks and martingale posteriors.
problem Online sequential decision making under uncertainty.
method Martingale posterior neural networks for fast online learning and decision making.
result Achieves competitive performance-speed trade-offs in non-stationary contextual bandits and Bayesian optimization.
Post-processing predictors reduces calibration errors for decision-making.
problem Predictors with low calibration error for machine learning may have high error for decision-making.
method Post-processing with ε distance to calibration adds noise to make predictions differentially private.
result Post-processing achieves O(√ε) ECE and CDL, asymptotically optimal.
Improving cancer treatment decisions requires considering causal effects, not just model accuracy.
problem Cancer outcome prediction models may cause harm when used for treatment decisions.
method Explains the importance of considering causal effects in model validation and provides guidelines.
result Building and validating models that are useful for decision making requires considering causal effects.
Develops methods for finding counterfactual explanations in sequential decision making.
problem Finding counterfactual explanations for sequential decision making processes.
method Formal characterization of sequential actions and states using Markov decision processes and Gumbel-Max structural causal model. Introduces a polynomial time algorithm based on dynamic programming.
result Algorithm finds optimal counterfactual explanations for sequential decision making.
Machine learning based decision making systems are increasingly affecting humans. An individual can suffer an undesirable outcome under such decision making systems (e.g. denied credit) irrespective of whether the decision is fair or accurate. Individual recourse pertains to the problem of providing an actionable set o…
Paper offers a fast convergence theory for offline decision making.
problem Offline decision making problems, including reinforcement learning and off-policy evaluation.
method Introduces a framework (DMOF) and algorithm (EDD) with a fast convergence guarantee.
result Demonstrates a fast convergence guarantee with a lower bound complement.
New bounds show complexity of adversarial decision making.
problem Understanding sample efficiency in adversarial decision making.
method New upper and lower bounds on Decision-Estimation Coefficient.
result Decision-Estimation Coefficient is necessary and sufficient for low regret in adversarial decision making.
Bayesian decision theory outlines a rigorous framework for making optimal decisions based on maximizing expected utility over a model posterior. However, practitioners often do not have access to the full posterior and resort to approximate inference strategies. In such cases, taking the eventual decision-making task i…
Improved model-free reinforcement learning with decision-estimation coefficient.
problem Interactive decision making, including structured bandits and reinforcement learning.
method Combining Estimation-to-Decisions with optimistic estimation to achieve better regret bounds.
result Regret bounds for model-free reinforcement learning with value function approximation.
New method learns decisions from collective preferences without individual covariates.
problem Making decisions online without individual covariates.
method Collaborative filtering, matrix completion bandit, ε-greedy policy, online gradient descent, inverse propensity weighting.
result Method outperforms benchmarks and reveals new discoveries.
Proposes a framework to quantify uncertainty in multi-step decision-making by LLMs.
problem Uncertainty quantification in multi-step decision-making scenarios of LLMs.
method A principled, information-theoretic framework decomposing uncertainty into internal and extrinsic components, and proposing UProp for efficient extrinsic uncertainty estimation.
result UProp significantly outperforms existing single-turn UQ baselines in multi-step decision-making benchmarks.
A new fairness metric for decision-making algorithms, conditioning on known fair variables.
problem Fairness issues in decision-making systems.
method Conditional fairness metric, Derivable Conditional Fairness Regularizer (DCFR), adversarial representation.
result Traditional fairness notations are special cases of the new conditional fairness notation.
The paper introduces a new algorithm for fair decision-making in outcome control tasks.
problem Fair and equitable automated decision-making in outcome control tasks.
method Causal analysis and optimization to ensure fairness in decision-making.
result Developed an algorithm for maximizing Y while ensuring causal fairness. Introduces principal fairness for fair decision-making.
problem Discrimination among similarly affected individuals.
method Uses principal stratification from causal inference.
result Explicitly accounts for decision impacts, not just protected attributes.
Dynamic probabilistic forecasts guide optimal decisions in uncertain processes.
problem Optimal decision making in processes influenced by uncertain random factors.
method Stochastic models for probabilistic forecast evolution, calibrated from ensemble forecasts.
result Optimal decision strategies determined using dynamic probabilistic forecasts.
Human irrationality can improve AI design, study shows.
problem Improving AI by learning from human decision-making biases.
method Developed a novel POMDP model to simulate human decision-making in contextual choice tasks.
result Reinforcement learners can exploit human irrationalities to make better decisions.
Machine learning algorithms can be fooled by small well-designed adversarial perturbations. This is reminiscent of cellular decision-making where ligands (called antagonists) prevent correct signalling, like in early immune recognition. We draw a formal analogy between neural networks used in machine learning and model…
The Availability bias, manifested in the over-representation of extreme eventualities in decision-making, is a well-known cognitive bias, and is generally taken as evidence of human irrationality. In this work, we present the first rational, metacognitive account of the Availability bias, formally articulated at Marr's…
Proposes a new machine learning problem for automated temporal decision-making.
problem Automating human involvement in temporal decision-making processes.
method Develops a deep Bayesian neural network, ForeClassNet, with Boltzmann convolutions.
result Achieves superior performance in real-world Foreclassing datasets.
Interpole learns transparent decision-making policies from data.
problem Understanding human decision-making in opaque environments.
method Interpole combines belief-update and belief-action mapping estimation.
result Interpole provides interpretable models of decision-making behavior.
GoBOED optimizes experiments for specific decision-making objectives, improving downstream outcomes.
problem Reducing parameter uncertainty does not always improve decision-making in critical settings.
method Combines variational posterior surrogate and differentiable convex decision layer for gradient-based design optimization.
result GoBOED identifies designs that better align with specific decision objectives and reveals wider optimal design windows.
Bayesian models quantify uncertainty and facilitate optimal decision-making in downstream applications. For most models, however, practitioners are forced to use approximate inference techniques that lead to sub-optimal decisions due to incorrect posterior predictive distributions. We present a novel approach that corr…
In this paper the theory of semi-bounded rationality is proposed as an extension of the theory of bounded rationality. In particular, it is proposed that a decision making process involves two components and these are the correlation machine, which estimates missing values, and the causal machine, which relates the cau…
LinearAPT optimizes decision-making under resource constraints for a linear threshold problem.
problem Optimizing sequential decisions with a linear threshold under resource limitations.
method LinearAPT, an adaptive algorithm for fixed-budget TLB problem.
result LinearAPT achieves theoretical upper bounds and robust performance on various datasets.
This article introduces a framework to estimate the value of evidence-based decision making.
problem Lack of empirical tools to assess the value of evidence-based decision making and optimize statistical precision.
method Empirical framework using parametric and nonparametric empirical Bayes methods.
result The value of statistical evidence depends on how organizations translate it into policy decisions.
Study on multi-agent decision making complexity, showing sample efficiency gaps.
problem Understanding sample efficiency in multi-agent decision making.
method General framework for interactive decision making, focusing on equilibrium computation.
result No 'reasonable' complexity measure can close gaps between single and multiple agents.
New algorithm improves knowledge transfer in dynamic decision-making.
problem Utilizing data from existing ventures to improve decision-making in new ventures.
method Proposes Transferred Fitted Q-Iteration algorithm for estimating optimal action-state function Q∗. result Significantly improved final learning error of Q∗ function. Framework adds human knowledge to AI decisions to improve outcomes.
problem Conflict between AI recommendations and human insights.
method Develops a framework for integrating human knowledge as a guardrail for AI decisions.
result Human knowledge can improve AI decisions, especially in specific pitfalls.
IDT learns human preferences from uncertain decisions, even when humans are suboptimal.
problem Learning human preferences from uncertain and suboptimal decisions.
method Inverse decision theory (IDT) framework, statistical analysis of IDT, characterizing sample complexity.
result Learning preferences is easier when decisions are more uncertain, even if humans are suboptimal.
New methods improve robust decision-making under uncertainty in off-policy evaluation.
problem Statistical uncertainty and causal considerations in off-policy evaluation.
method Marginal Ratio (MR) estimator, Conformal Off-Policy Prediction (COPP), causal bounds.
result Improved robustness and uncertainty quantification in off-policy decision-making.
Study shows how AI model can improve decision-making with missing data.
problem Sequential decision-making with missing covariates.
method Introduced model elasticity to quantify imputation discrepancy; used statistical learning and regression for calibration.
result Calibrating pre-trained models can significantly reduce regret in decision-making.
New complexity measure for interactive learning reduces regret to near-optimal levels.
problem Challenges in sample-efficient, adaptive learning algorithms for interactive decision making.
method Introduces the Decision-Estimation Coefficient and the Estimation-to-Decisions (E2D) principle.
result Unified algorithm design principle E2D achieves optimal sample-efficient learning.
The paper introduces metrics to rank potential outcomes for better decision-making.
problem Optimal action selection in uncertain situations using causal reasoning.
method Introducing two new metrics: probabilities of potential outcome ranking (PoR) and probability of achieving the best potential outcome (PoB). Establishing identification theorems and deriving bounds for these metrics, and presenting estimation methods.
result The estimators' finite-sample properties and their application to a real-world dataset are demonstrated.
Machine learning can help personalized decision support by learning models to predict individual treatment effects (ITE). This work studies the reliability of prediction-based decision-making in a task of deciding which action a to take for a target unit after observing its covariates x~ and predicted outcom…
Modeling decision-making dynamics in MDD patients using RL-HMM.
problem Characterize reward learning strategies in MDD patients.
method Proposed RL-HMM framework to analyze reward-based decision-making.
result MDD patients show reduced engagement in RL compared to healthy controls.