Research
On-device research index

arXiv research

A locally-built, LLM-digested index of recent arXiv papers in quant finance, geometry/topology, and statistical ML — keyword search served straight from SQLite on this machine.

168,695 papers · 148 categories

Trend · papers per month

20395978 · Sep 202019922001200920172026
48 results for Customer Revenue Forecasting

Proposes a variational autoencoder for long-term customer revenue forecasting.

problem Predicting long-term customer revenue from sparse and irregular transaction data.
method Variational Autoencoder (VAE) with flexible latent representation.
result Improves upon latest benchmarks in multiple real-world datasets.

Ancillaries have become a major source of revenue and profitability in the travel industry. Yet, conventional pricing strategies are based on business rules that are poorly optimized and do not respond to changing market conditions. This paper describes the dynamic pricing model developed by Deepair solutions, an AI te…

2019-02-06abs ↗pdf ↗

The paper proposes a new method for product recommendation that considers revenue contributions and user similarity.

problem High dimensionality and sparsity in user-item data, especially in terms of revenue contributions.
method The approach encodes revenue contributions in the user-item matrix and computes customer similarity using suitable distance measures.
result The method segments users based on revenue-based similarity and supports recommendations aligned with profitability objectives.

Study optimizes crowdfunding platform offerings based on customer behavior.

problem Maximizing crowdfunding platform revenue through optimal product assortment.
method Multinomial logit model and machine learning methods (multivariate regression, classification) for revenue prediction.
result Optimal assortments can significantly increase platform revenue.

Develops a Bayesian model to predict business revenue and demand.

problem Estimating revenue and demand at business facilities.
method Variational Bayesian spatial interaction model (BSIM) with scalable inference.
result BSIM outperforms competing approaches in predicting pub revenue and demand.

New loss functions optimize pricing policies using transaction data, ensuring expected revenue guarantees.

problem Optimizing pricing policies with transaction data where valuation data is not directly observed.
method Introducing convex loss functions for contextual pricing, focusing on log-concave valuation distributions.
result Proved expected revenue bounds for generalized hinge and quantile pricing loss functions.

For any business, planning is a continuous process, and typically business-owners focus on making both long-term planning aligned with a particular strategy as well as short-term planning that accommodates the dynamic market situations. An ability to perform an accurate financial forecast is crucial for effective plann…

2016-11-21abs ↗pdf ↗

New findings challenge the importance of forecast accuracy in battery storage optimization, highlighting the role of rank correlation instead.

problem The challenge of optimizing battery storage dispatch decisions in multi-market electricity trading using forecast accuracy metrics.
method A hierarchical three-layer optimization system trading in multiple markets (FCR, aFRR, day-ahead, intraday) with real market data.
result Rank correlation (Kendall tau) is a better predictor of intraday dispatch value than forecast accuracy (MAE), with a threshold of tau around 0.85-0.95 capturing up to 97-100% of perfect-foresight revenue.

Unfair pricing policies have been shown to be one of the most negative perceptions customers can have concerning pricing, and may result in long-term losses for a company. Despite the fact that dynamic pricing models help companies maximize revenue, fairness and equality should be taken into account in order to avoid u…

2018-03-27abs ↗pdf ↗

The study uses historical revenue data to forecast music catalog cashflows and multipliers.

problem Valuation of music catalogs based on historical revenue data.
method Risk-neutral approach using discounted cashflows formula.
result Ask prices are close to multipliers justified by median song cashflows, while best bids are near multipliers justified by bottom decile cashflows.

This paper improves bidding price prediction for ancillary services markets, boosting revenues.

problem Volatility in renewable energy sources affects grid stability and revenue optimization.
method Machine learning models (SVR, DT, k-NN) and offset adjustment for pay-as-bid markets.
result The proposed approach increases potential revenues by 27.43% to 37.31% compared to baseline models.

Ebay uses forecasting and simulation to decide when to disable a vendor.

problem Determining the optimal time to disable a vendor to avoid customer loss.
method Data-driven approach involving multiplicative seasonality model, Monte Carlo simulation, and linear model.
result Identifies the best time to disable a vendor to minimize customer loss.

Proposes robust assortment optimization from observational data.

problem Real-world scenarios often violate assumptions of stable customer preferences and correct choice models.
method Develops a robust framework that accounts for potential distributional shifts in customer choice behavior.
result Uncovered the notion of ``robust item-wise coverage'' as the minimal data requirement for sample-efficient robust assortment learning.

This paper optimizes revenue and resource balance in network revenue management.

problem Maximizing revenue while ensuring fair resource consumption across different suppliers.
method Introduces a regularized revenue objective and a primal-dual UCB algorithm for continuous prices and balancing.
result Achieves a worst-case regret of O~(N5/2T)\widetilde O(N^{5/2}\sqrt{T}) for revenue maximization and balancing.

Personalized pricing analytics is becoming an essential tool in retailing. Upon observing the personalized information of each arriving customer, the firm needs to set a price accordingly based on the covariates such as income, education background, past purchasing history to extract more revenue. For new entrants of t…

2018-05-03abs ↗pdf ↗

A scalable system detects price anomalies in online marketplaces to improve customer experience.

problem Inaccurate prices on online marketplaces lead to poor customer experience and revenue loss.
method MoatPlus uses unsupervised statistical features and an ensemble of models to generate upper price bounds.
result Our approach improves precise anchor coverage by up to 46.6% in high-vulnerability item subsets.

Estimates price sensitivity from transaction data using a novel odds ratio method.

problem Estimate price sensitivity from transaction-level data with partially observed treatment assignments.
method Recursive partitioning procedure with adversarial imputation for robust estimation.
result Validated on synthetic data and applied to three case studies, demonstrating heterogeneity in treatment effects.

Paper benchmarks and customizes energy forecasting methods.

problem Energy forecasting challenges and differences from traditional time series.
method Collected large-scale load datasets and renewable energy datasets. Developed feature engineering and customized loss functions.
result Comprehensive evaluation of 21 forecasting methods in energy datasets.

This paper addresses dynamic price discrimination with fairness constraints.

problem Dynamic price discrimination with fairness constraints in online retailing.
method Nonparametric demand models, dynamic pricing policy, regret minimization.
result Optimal dynamic pricing policy with ildeO(T4/5) ilde{O}(T^{4/5}) regret for price fairness.

We study a stylized dynamic assortment planning problem during a selling season of finite length TT. At each time period, the seller offers an arriving customer an assortment of substitutable products and the customer makes the purchase among offered products according to a discrete choice model. The goal of the selle…

2018-06-27abs ↗pdf ↗

We study the pricing problem faced by a firm that sells a large number of products, described via a wide range of features, to customers that arrive over time. Customers independently make purchasing decisions according to a general choice model that includes products features and customers' characteristics, encoded as…

2016-09-24abs ↗pdf ↗

The study explores machine learning for predicting customer propensity-to-pay uncertainty.

problem Improving customer experience, reducing financial hardship, and managing cash flow risks.
method Investigated machine learning models for predicting propensity-to-pay, focusing on uncertainty estimation.
result Novel Bayesian Neural Network model for binary classification of propensity-to-pay.

Unfair stock trading strategies have been shown to be one of the most negative perceptions that customers can have concerning trading and may result in long-term losses for a company. Investment banks usually place trading orders for multiple clients with the same target assets but different order sizes and diverse req…

2019-12-14abs ↗pdf ↗

Dynamic assortment problem on two-sided platform with unknown parameters

problem Optimizing assortment display in an online platform with incomplete information and heterogeneous customers
method Data-driven algorithm that learns choice parameters while optimizing revenue
result Worst-case regret grows polylogarithmically over time

A novel CAB-XDE framework predicts speculative stock prices with high accuracy.

problem Forecasting speculative stock prices in volatile markets.
method Customized attention BiLSTM with XGBoost, integrating attention mechanism and weight determination theory-error reciprocal method.
result Empirically validated with MAPE of 0.0037, MAE of 84.40, and RMSE of 106.14.

This study improves valuation of post-revenue biopharmaceutical assets using Pfizer's data.

problem Accurate valuation of post-revenue drug assets in biotech and pharma.
method Historical sales data analysis to forecast future sales and calculate Net Present Value.
result Demonstrates a method for more informed investment decisions in biotech and pharma.

Firms miscount their customers who stop buying without saying goodbye.

problem Counting non-contractual customers accurately.
method Estimating repeat purchase probabilities and extrapolating to infinite time.
result The count of alive customers is only partially identified, with a wide range of estimates.

Optimizes BESS for cross-market energy arbitrage to boost revenues.

problem Charging and discharging BESS at optimal times to maximize profits.
method Developed a generic framework, backtest engine, and optimization strategy.
result Boosted revenues by 10% through strategic BESS operation.