A locally-built, LLM-digested index of recent arXiv papers in quant finance, geometry/topology, and statistical ML — keyword search served straight from SQLite on this machine.
Develops optimal trading strategy for illiquid currency pairs.
Deep learning predicts currency volatility accurately.
This paper offers a mathematical framework to manage inventory risk in FX cash markets.
Optimizes cryptocurrency trading pairs for efficiency and decentralization.
Study shows variance gamma model outperforms Black-Scholes for USD-INR currency options.
Paper uses machine learning to forecast significant currency exchange rate fluctuations.
High-frequency financial data of the foreign exchange market (EUR/CHF, EUR/GBP, EUR/JPY, EUR/NOK, EUR/SEK, EUR/USD, NZD/USD, USD/CAD, USD/CHF, USD/JPY, USD/NOK, and USD/SEK) are analyzed by utilizing the Kullback-Leibler divergence between two normalized spectrograms of the tick frequency and the generalized Jensen-Sha…
Agent learns to trade currency pairs with improved risk management.
For the purpose of elucidating the correlation among currencies, we analyze daily and high-resolution data of foreign exchange rates. There is strong correlation for pairs of currencies of geographically near countries. We show that there is a time delay of order less than a minute between two currency markets having a…
Machine learning models predict EUR/USD currency direction with 58.52% accuracy.
Study compares GARCH, EWMA, and IV models for GBP/USD and EUR/GBP currency pairs.
We suggest an intermediate currency approach that allows us to price options on all FX markets simultaneously under the same risk-neutral measure which ensures consistency of FX option prices across all markets. In particular, it is sufficient to calibrate a model to the volatility smile on the domestic market as, due …
Gold and currency markets form a unique pair with specific interactions and dynamics. We focus on the efficiency ranking of gold markets with respect to the currency of purchase. By utilizing the Efficiency Index (EI) based on fractal dimension, approximate entropy and long-term memory on a wide portfolio of 142 gold p…
We investigate quotation and transaction activities in the foreign exchange market for every week during the period of June 2007 to December 2010. A scaling relationship between the mean values of number of quotations (or number of transactions) for various currency pairs and the corresponding standard deviations holds…
Multiple Kernel Learning (MKL) is used to replicate the signal combination process that trading rules embody when they aggregate multiple sources of financial information when predicting an asset's price movements. A set of financially motivated kernels is constructed for the EURUSD currency pair and is used to predict…
Many studies have shown that there are good reasons to claim very low predictability of currency nevertheless, the deviations from true randomness exist which have potential predictive and prognostic power [J.James, Quantitative finance 3 (2003) C75-C77]. We analyze the local trends which are of the main focus of the t…
Using one of the key property of copulas that they remain invariant under an arbitrary monotonous change of variable, we investigate the null hypothesis that the dependence between financial assets can be modeled by the Gaussian copula. We find that most pairs of currencies and pairs of major stocks are compatible with…
Using data from a sample of 28 representatives countries, we propose a classification of currency crises consequences based on the ultrametric analysis of the real exchange rate movements time series, without any further assumption. By using the matrix of synchronous linear correlation coefficients and the appropriate …
Study proposes a method to construct copulas using corrected Hermite polynomial expansion for estimating foreign exchange volatility.
This study considers the multivariate segmentation procedure under the assumption of the multivariate Gaussian mixture. Jensen-Shannon divergence between two multivariate Gaussian distributions is employed as a discriminator and a recursive segmentation procedure is proposed. The daily log-return time series for 30 cur…
Novel OTT method for cryptocurrency trading offers high annualized profit.
We propose a strategy for automated trading, outline theoretical justification of the profitability of this strategy and overview the hypothetical results in application to currency pairs trading. The proposed methodology relies on the assumption that processes reflecting the dynamics of currency exchange rates are in …
The goal of developing a firmer theoretical understanding of inhomogenous temporal processes -- in particular, the waiting times in some collective dynamical system -- is attracting significant interest among physicists. Quantifying the deviations in the waiting-time distribution away from one generated by a random pro…
Machine learning struggles to predict binary options movements due to randomness.
We study the long memory of order flow for each of three liquid currency pairs on a large electronic trading platform in the foreign exchange (FX) spot market. Due to the extremely high levels of market activity on the platform, and in contrast to existing empirical studies of other markets, our data enables us to perf…
The multi dimensional string objects are introduced as a new alternative for an application of string models for time series forecasting in trading on financial markets. The objects are represented by open string with 2-endpoints and D2-brane, which are continuous enhancement of 1-endpoint open string model. We show ho…
We explore inverse and quanto inverse crypto options, their pricing, and applications.
In the paper, we study numerically the projections of the real exchange rate dynamics onto the string-like topology. Our approach is inspired by the contemporary movements in the string theory. The string map of data is defined here by the boundary conditions, characteristic length, real valued and the method of redist…
This paper considers method of creation of an advisor and indicator based on the spectral stochastic analysis model, both with linear and non-linear approximation. The problem of entrance to one or another trade position is solved on the basis of combined analysis of dynamics of quotations of all currency pairs, what a…
We present a simplistic model of the competition between different currencies. Each individual is free to choose the currency that minimizes his transaction costs, which arise whenever his exchanging relations have chosen a different currency. We show that competition between currencies does not necessarily converge to…
Uniswap analyzes liquidity provider risk and impermanent loss.
By analyzing the foreign exchange market data of various currencies, we derive a hierarchical taxonomy of currencies constructing minimal-spanning trees. Clustered structure of the currencies and the key currency in each cluster are found. The clusters match nicely with the geographical regions of corresponding countri…
A large class of trading strategies focus on opportunities offered by the yield curve. In particular, a set of yield curve trading strategies are based on the view that the yield curve mean-reverts. Based on these strategies' positive performance, a multiple pairs trading strategy on major currency pairs was implemente…
Paper examines pricing and hedging for cross-currency swaps referencing backward-looking rates.
Bitcoins have emerged as a possible competitor to usual currencies, but other crypto-currencies have likewise appeared as competitors to the Bitcoin currency. The expanding market of crypto-currencies now involves capital equivalent to US Dollars, providing academia with an unusual opportunity to study the em…
Abstract framework for cross-currency interest rate contracts.
Brazil proposes a new BRICS trade currency to dominate international trade.
World currency network constitutes one of the most complex structures that is associated with the contemporary civilization. On a way towards quantifying its characteristics we study the cross correlations in changes of the daily foreign exchange rates within the basket of 60 currencies in the period December 1998 -- M…
Develops a new model for cross-currency derivatives pricing.
A large set of daily FOREX time series is analyzed. The corresponding correlation matrices (CM) are constructed for USD, EUR and PLZ used as the base currencies. The triangle rule is interpreted as constraints reducing the number of independent returns. The CM spectrum is computed and compared with the cases of shuffle…
We define a methodology to quantify market activity on a 24 hour basis by defining a scale, the so-called scale of market quakes (SMQ). The SMQ is designed within a framework where we analyse the dynamics of excess price moves from one directional change of price to the next. We use the SMQ to quantify the FX market an…
We analyze structure of the world foreign currency exchange (FX) market viewed as a network of interacting currencies. We analyze daily time series of FX data for a set of 63 currencies, including gold, silver and platinum. We group together all the exchange rates with a common base currency and study each group separa…
The paper presents a framework for optimizing crypto-currency portfolios using generative models.
New digital currency aims for equal wealth distribution.
We propose a mathematical procedure for finding informed traders in ultra-high frequency trading. We wrote it as Vector ARMA and found condition of its stationarity. For the price exposure complied with ARMA(1,2) we proved that underlying asset price difference can be derived as ARMA(1,1) process. For validation of the…
Hybrid method reveals true currency correlations.
Study on collateral currency impact in differential swaps valuation.
It is well known that traded foreign exchange forwards and cross currency swaps (CCS) cannot be priced applying overnight cash and carry arguments as they imply absence of funding advantage of one currency to the other. This paper proposes a heuristic present value concept for multi-currency pricing and hedging which a…