arXiv research

Bayesian model improves cure fraction estimation in survival analysis.

Proposes a deep neural network for predicting survival times with cure fractions.

Study identifies risk factors for subsequent suicide attempts in youth.

A Markov-chain model is developed for the purpose estimation of the cure rate of non-performing loans. The technique is performed collectively, on portfolios and it can be applicable in the process of calculation of credit impairment. It is efficient in terms of data manipulation costs which makes it accessible even to…

New model identifies cell-specific genes for cancer prognosis.

New method optimizes processes under constraints using bivariate Gaussian models.

The calibration of a measurement device is crucial for every scientific experiment, where a signal has to be inferred from data. We present CURE, the calibration uncertainty renormalized estimator, to reconstruct a signal and simultaneously the instrument's calibration from the same data without knowing the exact calib…

This paper argues, first, that a major problem in the planning of large infrastructure projects is the high level of misinformation about costs and benefits that decision makers face in deciding whether to build, and the high risks such misinformation generates. Second, it explores the causes of misinformation and risk…

To cure the lack of predictive power of general relativity Geroch proposed to complete the theory with an additional postulate that only "hole-free" spacetimes are permitted. I argue that this postulate is too strong -- it prohibits even the Minkowski space.

CURE extracts relations without supervision by clustering similar entity pairs.

New gauge condition fixes $L^2$ metric divergence in hyperbolic monopole spaces.

Dan Lovallo and Daniel Kahneman must be commended for their clear identification of causes and cures to the planning fallacy in "Delusions of Success: How Optimism Undermines Executives' Decisions" (HBR July 2003). Their look at overoptimism, anchoring, competitor neglect, and the outside view in forecasting is highly …

Rare diseases affect a relatively small number of people, which limits investment in research for treatments and cures. Developing an efficient method for rare disease detection is a crucial first step towards subsequent clinical research. In this paper, we present a semi-supervised learning framework for rare disease …

Although shill bidding is a common auction fraud, it is however very tough to detect. Due to the unavailability and lack of training data, in this study, we build a high-quality labeled shill bidding dataset based on recently collected auctions from eBay. Labeling shill biding instances with multidimensional features i…

We reconsider the multivariate Kyle model in a risk-neutral setting with a single, perfectly informed rational insider and a rational competitive market maker, setting the price of n correlated securities. We prove the unicity of a symmetric, positive definite solution for the impact matrix and provide insights on its …

This essay suggests that a proper assessment of the presently unfolding financial crisis, and its cure, requires going back at least to the late 1990s, accounting for the cumulative effect of the ITC, real-estate and financial derivative bubbles. We focus on the deep loss of trust, not only in Wall Street, but more imp…

Divide-and-conquer method speeds sparse factorization for large matrices.

In this work we present a new approach on studying dynamical systems. Combining the two ways of expressing the uncertainty, using probabilistic theory and credibility theory, we have research the generalized fractional hybrid equations. We have introduced the concepts of generalized fractional Wiener process, generaliz…

Methods from the geometry of nonholonomic manifolds and Lagrange-Finsler spaces are applied in fractional calculus with Caputo derivatives and for elaborating models of fractional gravity and fractional Lagrange mechanics. The geometric data for such models are encoded into (fractional) bi-Hamiltonian structures and as…

Introduces fractional k-dimensional measure bridging fractional length and area.

The theory of derivative of noninteger order goes back to Leibniz, Liouville and Riemann. Derivatives of fractional order have found many applications in recent studies in mechanics, physics, economics. In this paper we define the fractional tangent bundle on a manifold, using a method of Radu Miron. The fractional Lei…

Let $S_g$ be a closed orientable surface of genus $g \geq 2$ and $C$ a simple closed nonseparating curve in $F$. Let $t_C$ denote a left handed Dehn twist about $C$. A \textit{fractional power} of $t_C$ of \textit{exponent} $\fraction{\ell}{n}$ is an $h \in \Mod(S_g)$ such that $h^n = t_C^{\ell}$. Unlike a root of a $t…

We formulate the fractional Ricci flow theory for (pseudo) Riemannian geometries enabled with nonholonomic distributions defining fractional integro-differential structures, for non-integer dimensions. There are constructed fractional analogs of Perelman's functionals and derived the corresponding fractional evolution …

Using Caputo fractional derivative of order $α$ we build the fractional jet bundle of order $α$ and its main geometrical structures. Defined on that bundle, some fractional dynamical systems with applications to economics are studied.

Volatility roughness studied using fractional noise-driven models.

Using the reviewed Riemann-Liouville fractional derivative we introduce the fractional osculator Lagrange space of k order and the main structures on it. The results are applied at the k order fractional prolongation of Lagrange, Finsler and Riemann fractional structures.

Develops fractional de Rham theory for Maxwell equations.

Modeling financial markets with memory using fractional calculus and Brownian motion.

Long and short memory in economic processes is usually described by the so-called discrete fractional differencing and fractional integration. We prove that the discrete fractional differencing and integration are the Grunwald-Letnikov fractional differences of non-integer order d. Equations of ARIMA(p,d,q) and ARFIMA(…

In this paper we established the condition for a curve to satisfy stochas- tic fractional HP (Hamilton-Pontryagin) equations. These equations are described using It^o integral. We have also considered the case of stochastic fractional Hamiltonian equa- tions, for a hyperregular Lagrange function. From the stochastic fr…

We study the fractional gravity for spacetimes with non-integer dimensions. Our constructions are based on a geometric formalism with the fractional Caputo derivative and integral calculus adapted to nonolonomic distributions. This allows us to define a fractional spacetime geometry with fundamental geometric/physical …

Extends fractional $L^p$ uncertainty principles with extremizers and stability results.

Approximates derivative pricing under fractional stochastic volatility.

New method uses fractional posteriors for semiparametric inference with improved uncertainty quantification.

In this paper we introduce a link between geometry of ordinary continued fractions and trajectories of points that moves according to the second Kepler law. We expand geometric interpretation of ordinary continued fractions to the case of continued fractions with arbitrary elements.

The paper studies inequalities for fractional GJMS operators on conformal infinity.

Using the fractional integration and differentiation on R we build the fractional jet fibre bundle on a differentiable manifold and we emphasize some important geometrical objects. Euler-Lagrange fractional equations are described. Some significant examples from mechanics and economics are presented.

New model uses generalized fractional Brownian motion for stock price prediction.

Paper approximates fractional harmonic maps with numerical methods.

New framework for ranking distributions using variable fractional parameters.

The mixed-fractional CEV model improves CDS pricing by accounting for default risk.

Fractional combinatorial flow improves surface conformal structures.

This note develops certain sharp inequalities relating the fractional Sobolev capacity of a set to its standard volume and fractional perimeter.

A generalization of exterior calculus is considered by allowing the partial derivatives in the exterior derivative to assume fractional orders. That is, a fractional exterior derivative is defined. This is found to generate new vector spaces of finite and infinite dimension, fractional differential form spaces. The def…

We study fractional configurations in gravity theories and Lagrange mechanics. The approach is based on Caputo fractional derivative which gives zero for actions on constants. We elaborate fractional geometric models of physical interactions and we formulate a method of nonholonomic deformations to other types of fract…

Paper defines multi-dimensional fractional Brownian motion under volatility uncertainty.

First variation of fractional $k$-dimensional measure for submanifolds

In this note, we establish a relationship between fractional Dehn twist coefficients of Riemann surface automorphisms and modular invariants of holomorphic families of algebraic curves. Specially, we give a characterization of pseudo-periodic maps with nontrivial fractional Dehn twist coefficients. We also obtain some …