Study forecasts stock returns on JSE using SGDLMs capturing cross-series dependencies.
problem Accurate forecasting of multivariate time series data.
method Simultaneous Graphical Dynamic Linear Models (SGDLMs) with customised DLMs and importance sampling/mean-field variational Bayes.
result SGDLMs accurately forecast stock data on JSE and respond to market changes.
E-commerce sales forecast using LSTM with cross-series information.
problem Accurate sales forecasting in e-commerce with limited univariate methods.
method Global training of LSTM on product assortment hierarchy, incorporating cross-series information.
result LSTM achieves competitive results on Walmart.com dataset, outperforming state-of-the-art techniques.
New framework improves E-commerce sales forecasts.
problem Short sales times series in E-commerce.
method Global model using Tree Boosting Methods.
result Outperforms state-of-the-art models on real dataset.
STanHop predicts multivariate time series with memory-enhanced capabilities.
problem Predicting multivariate time series with memory-enhanced capabilities.
method Sparse Tandem Hopfield Network (STanHop) with two external memory modules.
result STanHop outperforms dense Hopfield models in memory retrieval error.
Study compares local and global models for hierarchical forecasting accuracy.
problem Challenges in hierarchical time series forecasting, especially in accuracy and information utilisation.
method Developed and evaluated local and global forecasting models (GFMs) to exploit cross-series and cross-hierarchies information.
result Global Forecasting Models (GFMs) outperform local models in hierarchical forecasting accuracy and computational efficiency.
Model predicts volatility and dependencies in EUA and energy prices.
problem Analyzing uncertainty and dependencies in European carbon and energy prices.
method Probabilistic multivariate conditional time series model with VECM-Copula-GARCH structure.
result Forecasting performance evaluated in an extensive rolling-window study.
Chronos models improve financial forecasting by integrating multivariate data.
problem Improving financial forecasting accuracy using multivariate data.
method Evaluation of Chronos-2 on multivariate and univariate financial forecasting models.
result Multivariate forecasts consistently outperform univariate forecasts, especially for interest rates.
DeepPPMNet forecasts EMS demand and performs causal analyses for policy-making.
problem Accurate prediction and causal analysis of EMS demand for effective policy-making.
method DeepPPMNet, a LSTM-based framework, globally forecasts and analyzes causal relationships using Granger causality.
result DeepPPMNet outperforms traditional methods in forecasting EMS demand and policy-making.
A novel tree algorithm improves time series forecasting accuracy.
problem Improving accuracy in non-linear time series forecasting.
method Developed a hierarchical TAR model as a regression tree that trains globally across series, introducing a forecasting-specific tree algorithm with cross-series learning.
result Significantly higher accuracy than state-of-the-art tree-based algorithms and benchmarks across four metrics.
Enformer and GEnformer use Transformers with stochastic learning to forecast multivariate and spatiotemporal data with uncertainty.
problem Uncertainty quantification in multivariate time series and spatiotemporal forecasting.
method Synthesizing Transformer's expressive power with stochastic learning to model conditional distributions directly.
result Enformer and GEnformer yield calibrated probabilistic forecasts and outperform state-of-the-art baselines.
LSTM-MSNet forecasts time series with multiple seasonal patterns using a unified model.
problem Forecasting time series with multiple seasonal cycles.
method Decomposition-based, unified prediction framework using LSTM.
result LSTM-MSNet outperforms state-of-the-art methods on various datasets.
We simplify information measure computation using learned features.
problem Computing information measures from raw data is computationally expensive.
method Developed a separable design for computing information measures from learned feature representations.
result A variety of information measures can be computed efficiently through learned feature representations.
A new framework for information theory considers computational constraints.
problem Understanding information in complex systems with computational limitations.
method Variational extension of Shannon's information theory with computational constraints.
result Predictive V-information can be created through computation and reliably estimated from data. An asymmetric information model is introduced for the situation in which there is a small agent who is more susceptible to the flow of information in the market than the general market participant, and who tries to implement strategies based on the additional information. In this model market participants have access t…
We study a simple model of an asset market with informed and non-informed agents. In the absence of non-informed agents, the market becomes information efficient when the number of traders with different private information is large enough. Upon introducing non-informed agents, we find that the latter contribute signif…
Model shows too much information can make markets inefficient.
problem Information overload in financial markets.
method Original model using information overload to show inefficiency.
result Efficient market hypothesis ceases to be true with infinite information.
New method quantifies redundant information using information bottleneck.
problem Quantifying redundant information among multiple sources.
method Formulated as an information bottleneck problem, termed redundancy bottleneck.
result Extracts information that best predicts the target without revealing source identity.
New method uses mutual info and network science to explain deep learning models.
problem Interpreting deep neural networks for understanding their decision-making process.
method Coupling mutual information with network science to quantify information flow in deep learning models.
result Proposed NIF technique for codifying information flow in deep learning models.
This paper reviews information theory in open-world machine learning.
problem Lack of a unified theoretical foundation for open-world machine learning.
method Synthesis of information theoretic approaches.
result Established a pathway toward provable and trustworthy open world intelligence.
Generalizes information theory to evolving belief.
problem Measuring change in belief over time.
method Derives a general theory of information from first principles.
result Recover all information measures and interprets entropy as expected gain.
Paper proposes a framework to identify and obfuscate sensitive features via information density estimation.
problem Identifying and protecting sensitive attributes from leakage in obfuscation mechanisms.
method Information density estimation to identify leaking features, followed by a targeted obfuscation mechanism.
result Proven leakage guarantee in terms of Eγ-divergence for the obfuscation mechanism. Review of information plane analyses in neural networks, highlighting mixed results and methodological challenges.
problem Understanding the relationship between information-theoretic compression and neural network performance.
method Literature review and detailed analysis of information quantity estimation methods.
result Information plane compression is not necessarily information-theoretic but compatible with geometric compression.
Information geometry offers new tools for statistical analysis.
problem Statistical analysis of probability distributions.
method Geometric perspective on statistical manifolds.
result New applications in radar sensing, signal processing, etc.
In financial markets valuable information is rarely circulated homogeneously, because of time required for information to spread. However, advances in communication technology means that the 'lifetime' of important information is typically short. Hence, viewed as a tradable asset, information shares the characteristics…
Introduces relative information gain for improving Gaussian process regression rates.
problem Improving the sample complexity of estimating or maximizing unknown functions.
method Introduces relative information gain, interpolates between effective dimension and information gain, and proves PAC-Bayesian bounds.
result Obtains minimax-optimal rates of convergence through the relative information gain.
This paper uses information theory to improve risk modeling in big data.
problem Insufficient application of information theory in actuarial science.
method Explores information theory to uncover performance limits of insurance big data systems.
result Guidance for risk modeling and actuarial pricing systems.
In information theory, Fisher information and Shannon information (entropy) are respectively used to quantify the uncertainty associated with the distribution modeling and the uncertainty in specifying the outcome of given variables. These two quantities are complementary and are jointly applied to information behavior…
Investors pay for additional asset information based on utility maximization.
problem Determining the optimal price for additional asset information.
method Solving a stochastic control problem with partial information and utility maximization.
result Investors choose to purchase information at a deterministic time.
New method detects information leakage using approximate Bayes predictor.
problem Unintentional exposure of sensitive information via observable data.
method Statistical learning theory and information theory framework, approximating Bayes predictor's log-loss and accuracy.
result MI can be accurately estimated to detect ILs, outperforming state-of-the-art baselines.
Market strategies minimize Fisher information to minimize risk.
problem Applying minimum Fisher information principle to market dynamics.
method Analytical extension to quantum harmonic oscillator eigenstates and Gibbs distribution.
result Minimizing Fisher information reduces information and risk.
New approach quantifies overfitting in high-dimensional regression.
problem Quantifying and avoiding overfitting in large neural networks.
method Information bottleneck theory to minimize residual information while maximizing relevant bits.
result Characterized the relative information efficiency of randomized regression compared to optimal algorithms.
Proposes a new framework for decomposing information in multivariate settings.
problem Decomposing information from multiple sources about a target variable.
method Formal analogy with set theory and Blackwell order to define PID.
result Framework can be generalized to various information theories.
Unified notation simplifies information-theoretic concepts in machine learning.
problem Opaque notation for information-theoretic quantities in machine learning.
method Proposed a practical and unified notation for information-theoretic quantities.
result Unified notation facilitates new intuitions and rederivations in machine learning.
Paper explores how to use mixed types of side information for better recommendations.
problem Challenges in using heterogeneous side information for recommender systems.
method Proposes a framework to jointly capture flat and hierarchical side information.
result Demonstrates significant performance gains over state-of-the-art methods.
Study optimal portfolios for traders with asymmetric information and delay.
problem Optimizing portfolios for traders with delayed insider information.
method Anticipating stochastic calculus and white noise approach.
result Optimal portfolios maximize expected logarithmic utility under various financial models.
Strategic brokers exploit private information in broker-mediated markets, affecting informed traders' performance.
problem Strategic interactions and information leakage in broker-mediated markets.
method Study of strategic trading behavior and information leakage in a broker-mediated market.
result Brokers hold a strategic advantage over informed traders due to information leakage in trading flows.
Proposes a new method to enhance neural learning by maximizing information gain.
problem Improving neural learning by selecting key variables to maximize information gain.
method Adaptive Ensemble Kalman Filter to quantify uncertainty and maximize information gain.
result The proposed method enables the neural network to learn more effectively from stochastic systems.
Measures information in neural networks via weights and activations.
problem Understanding how information is encoded and used in deep neural networks.
method Measures information via the optimal trade-off between accuracy and complexity of weights, defined by coding length.
result Establishes a relation between information in weights and effective information in activations, showing low complexity models generalize better and learn invariant representations.
Mirror descent linked to information ratio via Bayesian regret bounds.
problem Understanding stability in mirror descent and its relation to information ratio.
method Developed a connection between mirror descent and information ratio using Bayesian regret bounds.
result Mirror descent with suitable estimators and distributions achieves bounds similar to information-directed sampling.
Study shows changes in information sharing between Bitcoin markets during 2017 crash.
problem Understanding information dynamics in Bitcoin markets during the 2017 crash.
method Analysis of high-frequency market-microstructure observables using information theoretic measures.
result Temporal changes in information sharing across markets, including predictability, memory, and synchronous coupling.
The abstract discusses how diversification and securitization lead to information losses in financial risk optimization.
problem Information loss in financial risk optimization practices.
method Information theoretic concepts to quantify information losses in financial transformations and portfolios.
result Diversification and securitization increase information sensitivity, leading to maximal information losses when assets are uncorrelated.
Derives a new variational approach to information bottleneck.
problem Information theoretic inference and predictive modeling.
method Variational lower bound of predictive information bottleneck.
result Generalizes modern inference procedures and suggests new ones.
Study on optimal information acquisition in Kyle model with entropy cost.
problem Optimal information acquisition in Kyle model with entropy cost.
method Continuous signals are optimal, and any signal with a logit posterior distribution yields the same ex-ante value.
result Posterior expected payoff becomes normally distributed as information acquisition cost increases.
Study on information evolution in interactive decision making using multi-armed bandits.
problem Understanding information dynamics in interactive decision making.
method Stochastic multi-armed bandit problem, focusing on optimal arm with a fixed margin.
result Distinct growth phases in mutual information, showing decoupling between success probability and information gain.
Study reveals mutual information is crucial for understanding algorithm performance in stochastic convex optimization.
problem Uncertainty in capturing the exceptional performance of learning algorithms using existing information-theoretic generalization bounds.
method Examined the relationship between mutual information and generalization in stochastic convex optimization.
result Mutual information is necessary for true risk minimization in stochastic convex optimization, indicating existing bounds fall short.
We create a formal framework for the design of informative securities in prediction markets. These securities allow a market organizer to infer the likelihood of events of interest as well as if he knew all of the traders' private signals. We consider the design of markets that are always informative, markets that are …
Softmax emerges naturally in neural networks as a measure of conditional mutual information.
problem The artificial nature of softmax in neural networks.
method Information-theoretic perspective to derive log-softmax and evaluate conditional mutual information.
result Training deterministic neural networks through log-softmax maximises conditional mutual information.
The paper proposes methods to extract and analyze individual variable information from complex dependencies.
problem Analyzing and understanding complex dependencies between multiple variables.
method Reversible normalization and iterative dependency reduction to extract individual information, and use it for direct mutual information and multi-feature Granger causality analysis.
result Decoupling of variables to analyze their individual information and direct mutual information transfers.