The study compares DLS method with machine learning for cricket match result prediction.
problem Improving accuracy of Duckworth-Lewis-Stern method for cricket match result prediction.
method Comparison of Duckworth-Lewis-Stern method with various supervised learning algorithms and optimization of DLS resource table.
result Development of Unpredictability Index to rank nations based on unpredictability in ODI matches.
Cricket betting is a multi-billion dollar market. Therefore, there is a strong incentive for models that can predict the outcomes of games and beat the odds provided by bookers. The aim of this study was to investigate to what degree it is possible to predict the outcome of cricket matches. The target competition was t…
In many professons employees are rewarded according to their relative performance. Corresponding economy can be modeled by taking N independent agents who gain from the market with a rate which depends on their current gain. We argue that this simple realistic rate generates a scale free distribution even though intr…
Tennis is a popular sport worldwide, boasting millions of fans and numerous national and international tournaments. Like many sports, tennis has benefitted from the popularity of rigorous record-keeping of game and player information, as well as the growth of machine learning methods for use in sports analytics. Of par…
Prediction suffix trees (PST) provide an effective tool for sequence modelling and prediction. Current prediction techniques for PSTs rely on exact matching between the suffix of the current sequence and the previously observed sequence. We present a provably correct algorithm for learning a PST with approximate suffix…
Model predicts Bitcoin's future movements using multimodal pattern matching.
problem Challenges in predicting Bitcoin's volatile future movements.
method Ranking similar past chart patterns given current chart information.
result Improves directional prediction of Bitcoin's future movements.
Study uses complex networks and machine learning to predict soccer match outcomes.
problem Predicting soccer match outcomes with complex networks and machine learning.
method Complex network metrics and match statistics were used to build machine learning models.
result Models based on passing networks were as effective as traditional models using match statistics.
We propose a unified data-driven framework based on inverse optimal transport that can learn adaptive, nonlinear interaction cost function from noisy and incomplete empirical matching matrix and predict new matching in various matching contexts. We emphasize that the discrete optimal transport plays the role of a varia…
Improved video tracking accuracy with active learning.
problem Efficiently predicting object matches in videos with active learning.
method Adversarial approach for active learning with structured prediction domains.
result Better accuracy and computational efficiency for object tracking.
TRACE improves conformal prediction for multi-dimensional outputs.
problem Challenges in constructing valid and informative conformal prediction regions for multi-dimensional outputs.
method TRACE uses transport alignment in diffusion and flow matching models to define nonconformity scores.
result TRACE yields valid and adaptive conformal prediction regions for multimodal and non-convex distributions.
Background: The problem of predicting whether a drug combination of arbitrary orders is likely to induce adverse drug reactions is considered in this manuscript. Methods: Novel kernels over drug combinations of arbitrary orders are developed within support vector machines for the prediction. Graph matching methods are …
Framework improves target domain prediction using quantile matching.
problem Improving prediction accuracy in data-scarce target domains.
method Conditional quantile matching for distributional alignment.
result Empirical risk minimizer achieves tighter excess risk bound.
This paper reviews methods for constructing confidence intervals for error rates in 1:1 matching tasks.
problem Challenges in assessing uncertainty of error rates in matching algorithms, especially when data are dependent and error rates are low.
method Derives and examines statistical properties of methods for constructing confidence intervals for error rates in 1:1 matching tasks.
result Coverage and interval width vary with sample size, error rates, and data dependence.
Distilled models often fail to match teacher models, despite improving generalization.
problem The discrepancy between teacher and student predictive distributions remains large.
method Investigated the optimization difficulties and dataset details affecting student performance.
result Optimizing for matching the teacher does not always lead to better generalization.
Domain adaptation is an important technique to alleviate performance degradation caused by domain shift, e.g., when training and test data come from different domains. Most existing deep adaptation methods focus on reducing domain shift by matching marginal feature distributions through deep transformations on the inpu…
Paper learns data-driven organ matching rules from observational data.
problem Tackles organ transplantation compatibility using observational data.
method Representation learning to cluster donors and apply recipient transformations.
result Model outperforms human experts in predicting transplant outcomes.
Deep learning calibrates CO2 storage formations from seismic and well data.
problem Uncertainty in CO2 storage formation properties.
method Two deep learning models for well and seismic data, integrated into MCMC history matching.
result Significant uncertainty reduction in key parameters and accurate CO2 plume predictions.
Paper identifies tensor ranks via prior predictive matching, solving system of equations.
problem Determining the latent dimensions (ranks) in tensor factorization models.
method Prior predictive moment matching to transform moment matching conditions into a log-linear system of equations.
result Identifies which tensor models have identifiable ranks and derives rank estimators.
The paper proposes multicalibration to improve matching in graphs with imperfect predictors.
problem Finding the best matching in graphs with imperfect predictors.
method Introduces multicalibration as a fairness notion to ensure unbiasedness on protected sets of contexts.
result Constructing a multicalibrated predictor that outperforms standard optimal rules in matching algorithms.
We compare various extensions of the Bradley-Terry model and a hierarchical Poisson log-linear model in terms of their performance in predicting the outcome of soccer matches (win, draw, or loss). The parameters of the Bradley-Terry extensions are estimated by maximizing the log-likelihood, or an appropriately penalize…
Ecologists have long suspected that species are more likely to interact if their traits match in a particular way. For example, a pollination interaction may be more likely if the proportions of a bee's tongue fit a plant's flower shape. Empirical estimates of the importance of trait-matching for determining species in…
KD2M unifies feature matching in neural networks.
problem Matching neural network activations for knowledge transfer.
method Formalizes distribution matching strategy.
result New theoretical results for KD.
Partial Label Learning (PLL) aims to learn from the data where each training example is associated with a set of candidate labels, among which only one is correct. The key to deal with such problem is to disambiguate the candidate label sets and obtain the correct assignments between instances and their candidate label…
SMURF-THP improves Transformer Hawkes process models by providing uncertainty quantification.
problem Uncertainty quantification for Transformer Hawkes process predictions.
method Score matching for learning the score function of event arrival times.
result SMURF-THP outperforms likelihood-based methods in confidence calibration.
Matched filters reveal optimal normalization methods for different market participants.
problem Optimizing signal extraction from order flow for market microstructure analysis.
method General matched filter principle applied to normalization strategies.
result Optimal normalization methods (e.g., SMC and STV) differ based on trader types. Study dynamic matching in heterogeneous networks using ODE model.
problem Dynamic matching in heterogeneous networks with compatibility restrictions.
method Introduced an ODE model to evaluate matching algorithms.
result Demonstrated trade-off between quick matching and optimal matching.
Study efficient iterative method for distribution matching using sliced optimal transport.
problem Efficiently match distributions using sliced optimal transport.
method Slice-matching scheme based on sliced optimal transport, with quantitative non-asymptotic rates derived.
result Derive quantitative non-asymptotic rates for convergence to target distribution.
RG-VFM extends VFM to curved manifolds for better material and protein design.
problem Designing materials and proteins on curved manifolds.
method Riemannian Gaussian Variational Flow Matching (RG-VFM) for generative modeling on manifolds.
result RG-VFM more effectively captures manifold structure and improves performance.
A new approach to protein language models combines latent space prediction with masked language modeling.
problem Improving protein language models by predicting amino acid identities at masked positions.
method A variant of masked language modeling that predicts latent targets only at masked positions, retaining the MLM cross-entropy.
result The new approach outperforms pure masked language modeling on 11 out of 16 downstream tasks.
Esports have become major international sports with hundreds of millions of spectators. Esports games generate massive amounts of telemetry data. Using these to predict the outcome of esports matches has received considerable attention, but micro-predictions, which seek to predict events inside a match, is as yet unkno…
Unified framework for self-supervised learning via latent distribution matching.
problem Lack of a unifying theoretical framework for diverse SSL methods.
method Casting SSL as latent distribution matching (LDM): maximizing alignment and uniformity.
result Derives a Bayesian filtering model and proves identifiable latent representations.
One of the fundamental tasks in understanding genomics is the problem of predicting Transcription Factor Binding Sites (TFBSs). With more than hundreds of Transcription Factors (TFs) as labels, genomic-sequence based TFBS prediction is a challenging multi-label classification task. There are two major biological mechan…
Theory explains creativity in diffusion models generating novel images.
problem Diffusion models generate highly original images far from training data.
method Identified locality and equivariance as inductive biases to prevent optimal score-matching.
result Analytic models predict diffusion model outputs with high accuracy.
This paper develops a learning framework for optimal strategies in multi-stage decentralized matching markets.
problem Optimal strategies in multi-stage decentralized matching markets with uncertain preferences.
method Nonparametric statistical approach and variational analysis.
result Participants can be better off with multi-stage matching compared to single-stage matching.
Propensity score matching improves fairness in machine learning models.
problem Bias in training data affects fairness metrics in machine learning models.
method Propensity score matching to evaluate and mitigate bias in test data.
result FairMatch significantly reduces bias in test data without sacrificing predictive performance.
A new method for estimating uncertainties in neural ODEs without numerical integration.
problem Accurate estimation of predictive uncertainties in neural ODEs.
method Distributional Gradient Matching (DGM) algorithm that jointly trains a smoother and a dynamics model.
result Significantly more accurate predictions compared to traditional methods.
In this paper, we consider a problem of failure prediction in the context of predictive maintenance applications. We present a new approach for rare failures prediction, based on a general methodology, which takes into account peculiar properties of technical systems. We illustrate the applicability of the method on th…
MFM improves generative model interpolations by learning approximate geodesics on data manifolds.
problem Straight interpolations fail to capture dynamics on data manifolds.
method Metric Flow Matching (MFM) learns approximate geodesics by minimizing kinetic energy of a data-induced Riemannian metric.
result MFM outperforms Euclidean baselines, achieving SOTA on single-cell trajectory prediction.
New approach for algorithms that learn predictors to improve performance.
problem Improving algorithm performance by learning better predictions.
method Identify functional dependence and apply online learning techniques.
result Improved results in various online settings with simpler analysis.
IVON optimizes large neural networks, matching or outperforming Adam.
problem The inefficacy of variational learning in large neural networks.
method Improved Variational Online Newton (IVON) optimizer.
result IVON consistently matches or outperforms Adam for large networks.
Develops a deterministic method to approximate NSDEs for better uncertainty quantification.
problem Computational infeasibility of obtaining well-calibrated uncertainty from NSDEs.
method Bidimensional moment matching algorithm for approximating NSDE transition kernel.
result Deterministic approximation improves uncertainty calibration and prediction accuracy.
Bayesian rating system for large competitions improves prediction and efficiency.
problem Rating systems for large, competitive events like online programming contests.
method Developed a Bayesian rating system for many participants, proving robustness and runtime.
result The system outperforms existing systems in accuracy and computation speed.
New method recovers predictions from unobservable source subpopulation in binary classification.
problem Challenging binary classification with unobservable subpopulation in source domain.
method Distribution matching method to estimate subpopulation proportions, rigorous derivation of prediction models.
result Our method outperforms naive benchmarks in synthetic and real-world datasets.
Biological systems are often modelled at different levels of abstraction depending on the particular aims/resources of a study. Such different models often provide qualitatively concordant predictions over specific parametrisations, but it is generally unclear whether model predictions are quantitatively in agreement, …
Employers actively look for talents having not only specific hard skills but also various soft skills. To analyze the soft skill demands on the job market, it is important to be able to detect soft skill phrases from job advertisements automatically. However, a naive matching of soft skill phrases can lead to false pos…
New deep learning method preserves orientation in shape matching.
problem Symmetry issues in shape matching.
method Orientation-aware functional maps using complex functional representations and DiffusionNet.
result Stable correspondence predictions with robust orientation preservation.
Study predicts Euroleague basketball games with simple models, less accurate than crowds.
problem Predicting Euroleague basketball games with machine learning.
method Extracted features from Euroleague data, applied supervised machine learning techniques.
result Simple machine learning models achieve accuracy of less than 67% on test sets, outperformed by crowds.
Study develops a new method for creating fair models.
problem Ensuring equal outcomes for different protected groups.
method Introduces a new group-fair constraint based on transport maps.
result Develops a novel algorithm FTM for training group-fair models.