New algorithms handle unpredictable actions in sequential learning.
problem Learning with unreliable composite actions in online optimization.
method Follow-The-Perturbed-Leader method with Counting Asleep Times loss estimation.
result Significant improvement in performance guarantees for sleeping bandit problem.
Proposes a method to reconcile count time series forecasts.
problem No formal framework for probabilistic reconciliation of count time series.
method Generalizes Bayes' rule for reconciling real-valued and count variables.
result Improves forecast accuracy for count variables compared to Gaussian reconciliation.
Flow Matching for count data improves sample quality and efficiency.
problem Mapping between count distributions across batches or time points in high-dimensional count data.
method count-FM, a flow-matching framework based on a continuous-time birth-death process with local unit jumps.
result count-FM achieves better sample quality than representative baselines while using fewer parameters.
Warped DLMs improve forecasting for count time series.
problem Limited options for modeling count time series data.
method Introduces a semiparametric methodology using warping of Gaussian DLMs.
result Demonstrates improved forecasting capabilities for count time series.
Time series of counts arise in a variety of forecasting applications, for which traditional models are generally inappropriate. This paper introduces a hierarchical Bayesian formulation applicable to count time series that can easily account for explanatory variables and share statistical strength across groups of rela…
Graphical estimation of count time series dependencies.
problem Estimating dependencies between multivariate count time series.
method Parameter-driven generalized linear model with l1-type regularization and MCEM algorithm.
result Characterization of disease spread interdependence and sources/sinks in Greater Mumbai.
We use self-report and electrodermal activity (EDA) wearable sensor data from 77 nights of sleep on six participants to test the efficacy of EDA data for sleep monitoring. We used factor analysis to find latent factors in the EDA data, and causal model search to find the most probable graphical model accounting for sel…
Polynomial-time methods count and sample DAGs from equivalence classes.
problem Counting and sampling DAGs from Markov equivalence classes.
method Polynomial-time algorithms for DAGs.
result Counting and sampling can be done in polynomial time.
The paper introduces neural INGARCH models for time series of counts.
problem Analyzing time series of counts using traditional INGARCH models.
method Combining artificial neural networks with INGARCH models.
result Neural INGARCH models outperform traditional models in information loss.
Proposes a new model to better handle overdispersed count time series.
problem Heterogeneous overdispersed count time series.
method Negative-Binomial Randomized Gamma Markov Process.
result Significantly improves predictive performance and fast convergence of inference algorithm.
Counting objects in digital images is a process that should be replaced by machines. This tedious task is time consuming and prone to errors due to fatigue of human annotators. The goal is to have a system that takes as input an image and returns a count of the objects inside and justification for the prediction in the…
We tackle anomaly detection in sparse time series data.
problem Sparse time series with low signal-to-noise ratios and non-uniform performance.
method We introduce a novel generative procedure for benchmark datasets and demonstrate how anomaly score smoothing improves performance.
result Anomaly score smoothing consistently improves performance in low-count time series anomaly detection.
A gamma process dynamic Poisson factor analysis model is proposed to factorize a dynamic count matrix, whose columns are sequentially observed count vectors. The model builds a novel Markov chain that sends the latent gamma random variables at time (t−1) as the shape parameters of those at time t, which are linked …
Paper tackles NP-complete subgraph isomorphism counting problem.
problem Counting subgraph isomorphisms in large graphs.
method Learning framework that augments representation learning architectures and iteratively attends pattern and target graphs.
result Scalable learning approach counts subgraph isomorphisms in linear time.
The paper proposes count echo state networks for forecasting graduate student enrollments.
problem Forecasting graduate student enrollments from historical data.
method Developed hierarchical count echo state networks and compared them to Poisson autoregressions and negative binomial models.
result Hierarchical negative binomial based echo state network is the superior model.
Polynomial-time methods count and sample DAGs from Markov classes.
problem Counting and sampling Markov equivalent DAGs.
method Polynomial-time algorithms for DAGs from Markov classes.
result Long-standing open problem solved, making practical infeasible strategies feasible.
Deviance-style normalization for sparse, jointly overdispersed count matrices
problem Jointly overdispersed count matrices
method Dirichlet-multinomial deviance residualization
result Preserves exact sparsity, evaluates in constant time, recovers multinomial residual
We present the first framework for Gaussian-process-modulated Poisson processes when the temporal data appear in the form of panel counts. Panel count data frequently arise when experimental subjects are observed only at discrete time points and only the numbers of occurrences of the events between subsequent observati…
The study counts Salem numbers linked to arithmetic hyperbolic orbifolds.
problem Bounding the proportion of Salem numbers in arithmetic lattices.
method Using results on the distribution of Salem numbers, classical methods for counting Pythagorean triples, and Gauss' lattice-counting argument.
result Improved bounds on the proportion of Salem numbers and strong exponential growth of averages.
p-SNE embeds Poisson count data into low dimensions preserving structure.
problem Embedding high-dimensional sparse Poisson data into a low-dimensional space.
method p-SNE (Poisson Stochastic Neighbor Embedding) using KL divergence and Hellinger distance.
result p-SNE recovers meaningful structure in real-world count datasets.
Fluctuations in heart rate are intimately tied to changes in the physiological state of the organism. We examine and exploit this relationship by classifying a human subject's wake/sleep status using his instantaneous heart rate (IHR) series. We use a convolutional neural network (CNN) to build features from the IHR se…
Proposes a robust EM algorithm for analyzing incomplete panel count data.
problem Missing reports in panel count data.
method Functional EM algorithm for non-parametric counting process mean function estimation.
result Robust to misspecification of Poisson process assumption and missing completely at random.
odeN efficiently approximates multiple temporal motifs in large networks.
problem Efficiently counting multiple temporal motifs in large temporal networks.
method odeN is a sampling-based algorithm that provides accurate probabilistic approximations of motif counts.
result odeN provides accurate approximations of motif counts in a fraction of the time needed by state-of-the-art methods.
Proposes a method to handle sparse multiway count data with false zeros using zero-truncated Poisson regression.
problem Handling sparse multiway count data corrupted by false zeros.
method Zero-truncated Poisson regression with tensor completion.
result Accurate estimation of multiway count data from approximately IR2log22(I) non-zero counts. New method improves mHealth user engagement using Thompson sampling for count data.
problem Optimizing mHealth interventions for distal outcomes through proximal context.
method Combines count data models with Thompson sampling for contextual bandits.
result Improves user engagement in mHealth trials compared to existing methods.
Transformer learns to estimate negative binomial parameters efficiently.
problem Parameter estimation for over-dispersed count data in large screens.
method Pre-trained transformer trained on synthetic data generation to invert parameter to count transformation.
result Method of moments provides faster, more efficient, and better-calibrated estimates.
The paper improves count data regression models for overdispersed data.
problem Improving regression models for overdispersed count data.
method Double ℓ1-regularized negative binomial regressions. result Oracle inequalities and consistency for Lasso estimators of partial regression coefficients.
Complexity of counting group homomorphisms depends on group structure and presentation.
problem Computing the number of homomorphisms from a group to another.
method Obstruction theory and polynomial time algorithms for specific cases.
result Efficient algorithms for counting homomorphisms under certain conditions.
Develops a method to model multivariate count processes with Cox processes and shot noise intensities.
problem Modeling and estimating dependent count processes using granular data.
method Multivariate Cox process with shot noise intensities, connected via Lévy copulas.
result Allows for over-dispersion, auto-correlation, and realistic features in count processes.
New exact tests detect changepoints in binary and count data, especially when normal approximations fail.
problem Detecting changepoints in multichannel binary and count data.
method Exact tests combining two-sample conditional tests with multiplicity correction.
result Exact tests are much more powerful than asymptotic tests in various settings.
From social science to biology, numerous applications often rely on graphlets for intuitive and meaningful characterization of networks at both the global macro-level as well as the local micro-level. While graphlets have witnessed a tremendous success and impact in a variety of domains, there has yet to be a fast and …
Counting tripods on a flat torus using lattice point counting.
problem Counting finite BPS webs in flat torus geometry.
method Lattice point counting techniques in C2. result Asymptotic counting result for tripods on the torus.
We define a family of probability distributions for random count matrices with a potentially unbounded number of rows and columns. The three distributions we consider are derived from the gamma-Poisson, gamma-negative binomial, and beta-negative binomial processes. Because the models lead to closed-form Gibbs sampling …
A CNN-based method detects and counts corn kernels from images.
problem Manual counting of corn kernels is labor-intensive and prone to error.
method Sliding window approach with CNN for detection and NMS for overlapping removal.
result The method successfully detects and counts kernels with low error.
Networks are a fundamental tool for modeling complex systems in a variety of domains including social and communication networks as well as biology and neuroscience. Small subgraph patterns in networks, called network motifs, are crucial to understanding the structure and function of these systems. However, the role of…
The paper introduces a new insurance pricing model based on driving mileage.
problem Weak link between insurance premiums and mileage, leading to overdriving and accidents.
method Developed a Pay-As-You-Drive insurance pricing model using a counting process and non-homogeneous Poisson distribution.
result The model provides theoretical results for better insurance pricing based on driving behavior.
Automatically counts microglial cells in rat spinal cord images, providing precise counts and uncertainty estimates.
problem Counting microglial cells in small, heterogeneous datasets is time-consuming and requires extensive training.
method Pre-processing to filter images, designing a non-parametric, non-linear kernel counter, providing uncertainty estimation.
result The method can provide precise counts and uncertainty estimates in small datasets, even with expert opinions.
A new test statistic counts tree co-occurrences to detect edge correlation between networks.
problem Detecting edge correlation between networks using latent vertex correspondence.
method The test statistic is based on counting co-occurrences of signed trees for a family of non-isomorphic trees.
result The test runs in n2+o(1) time and succeeds with high probability for large n. The study counts arcs on hyperbolic surfaces, providing asymptotic growth formulas.
problem Counting arcs on hyperbolic surfaces with boundaries and cusps.
method Asymptotic analysis of pure mapping class group orbits and arc lengths.
result The number of arcs of bounded length is asymptotically proportional to L6g−6+2(n+p). Study counts geodesics on modular surface, linking to necklace counting.
problem Counting geodesics on modular surface with specific winding numbers.
method Asymptotic expansion, generating function analysis, correspondence to necklace counting.
result Obtained asymptotic growth rate of m low-lying geodesics in terms of word length.
We develop deep Poisson-gamma dynamical systems (DPGDS) to model sequentially observed multivariate count data, improving previously proposed models by not only mining deep hierarchical latent structure from the data, but also capturing both first-order and long-range temporal dependencies. Using sophisticated but simp…
New theorem counts curves on orbifolds.
problem Counting curves on surfaces.
method Applied Mirzakhani's theorem to orbifolds.
result Curve counting theorem extends to orbifolds.
Algorithm matches vertices of correlated Erdős-Rényi graphs efficiently.
problem Graph matching in correlated Erdős-Rényi graphs.
method Counting chandeliers to extract graph correlation.
result Correctly matches all but a vanishing fraction of vertices with high probability.
We propose a novel model for temporal detection and localization which allows the training of deep neural networks using only counts of event occurrences as training labels. This powerful weakly-supervised framework alleviates the burden of the imprecise and time-consuming process of annotating event locations in tempo…
Mirzakhani's thesis counts geodesics on hyperbolic surfaces, finding a specific asymptotic formula.
problem Counting simple closed geodesics on hyperbolic surfaces.
method Inspired by lattice point counting, uses principles of homogeneous dynamics.
result The number of simple closed geodesics of length ≤ L is asymptotic to L^(6g-6) times a constant.
This paper introduces a novel graph-analytic approach for detecting anomalies in network flow data called GraphPrints. Building on foundational network-mining techniques, our method represents time slices of traffic as a graph, then counts graphlets -- small induced subgraphs that describe local topology. By performing…
We describe two techniques that significantly improve the running time of several standard machine-learning algorithms when data is sparse. The first technique is an algorithm that effeciently extracts one-way and two-way counts--either real or expected-- from discrete data. Extracting such counts is a fundamental step…
A new method, Count-MORL, improves offline reinforcement learning by using state-action frequency.
problem Improving offline reinforcement learning performance.
method Integrates count-based conservatism into model-based offline reinforcement learning.
result The learned policy is near-optimal and outperforms existing methods.