RC reduces neural network redundancy and improves performance through independent BN layers.
problem Improving neural network performance and reducing redundancy.
method Recurrent convolution with independent batch normalization layers for different unrolling steps.
result The proposed method improves RC networks' performance and achieves cost-adjustable inference.
Investigates how trading boundaries change with transaction costs in portfolio selection.
problem Investigates how trading boundaries vary with transaction costs in portfolio selection.
method Analyzes Merton's problem with proportional transaction costs, showing monotonicity of trading boundaries.
result Cost-adjusted trading boundaries are monotone in transaction costs, with implications for the Merton line.
Proposes a method to infer the distributional impacts of predictive models on stakeholders.
problem The influence of predictive models on target variable distribution, leading to performative prediction.
method Modeling agents' responses as a cost-adjusted utility maximization problem and using optimal transport to align pre- and post-model distributions.
result Provides estimates for the cost associated with these responses and demonstrates the quality of these estimates.
Efficient adjustment sets found for cost-minimized causal estimations.
problem Estimating interventional means with minimum cost in causal graphical models.
method Defined cost-adjustment sets, constructed flow networks, and used maximum flow algorithms.
result Minimum cost optimal adjustment sets exist and can be found efficiently.
The importance of collateralization through the change of funding cost is now well recognized among practitioners. In this article, we have extended the previous studies of collateralized derivative pricing to more generic situation, that is asymmetric and imperfect collateralization with the associated counter party c…
This study explains and mitigates inflated returns and turnover in SPO-based portfolio optimization.
problem Inflated returns and excessive turnover in SPO-based portfolio optimization.
method KKT-based interpretation of portfolio decisions as ranking over adjusted scores, empirical evaluation of stabilization mechanisms.
result Realistic output constraints and portfolio-level turnover control improve SPO-based strategies.
The study extends SPT to account for real-world transaction costs, improving portfolio performance.
problem Real-world transaction costs affect portfolio performance, especially during market stress.
method Developed a continuous-time model with stochastic transaction costs and derived lower bounds for cost-adjusted wealth.
result Functionally generated portfolios can still achieve relative arbitrage after accounting for transaction costs.
The paper develops a method to learn cost-optimal sequential testing policies from retrospective data.
problem Learning cost-optimal sequential decision policies from retrospective data with missing test results.
method Doubly robust Q-learning framework with path-specific inverse probability weights.
result The method reduces testing cost without compromising predictive accuracy.
Improved financial performance through better regime prediction.
problem Predicting financial market regimes for profitable trading.
method A novel method combining contrarian trading and frequent short positions.
result Significant performance improvements over four years across three asset classes.
Study uses ML to predict currency and bond returns from news sentiment.
problem Predicting financial returns from news sentiment.
method Pretrained FinBERT model on finance-specific language, XGBoost classifier, SHAP for interpretability.
result XGBoost strategy outperforms benchmarks with Sharpe ratios > 5.
Study adapts OHLC volatility estimators for monitoring market stress in diverse settings.
problem Limited use of range-based volatility estimators in local commodity markets.
method Adapted OHLC volatility estimators to monitor market distress across various contexts.
result OHLC-based volatility indicators detect market disruptions missed by standard momentum indicators.
This review explores resampling techniques for imbalanced binary classification.
problem Imbalanced classes lead to poor prediction results in classification.
method Classical, cost-sensitive, and Neyman-Pearson paradigms with resampling techniques and classification methods.
result Complex dynamics among resampling techniques, base methods, metrics, and imbalance ratios.
Inference models are a key component in scaling variational inference to deep latent variable models, most notably as encoder networks in variational auto-encoders (VAEs). By replacing conventional optimization-based inference with a learned model, inference is amortized over data examples and therefore more computatio…
Approximate probabilistic inference algorithms are central to many fields. Examples include sequential Monte Carlo inference in robotics, variational inference in machine learning, and Markov chain Monte Carlo inference in statistics. A key problem faced by practitioners is measuring the accuracy of an approximate infe…
This work frames active inference through control as inference, offering robust control algorithms.
problem Active inference framework lacks practical sensorimotor control algorithms.
method Frame active inference through control as inference, presenting trajectory optimization as inference.
result AI may be framed as partially-observed CaI when the cost function is defined in observation states.
Simformer uses transformer models to perform flexible Bayesian inference.
problem Current simulation-based inference methods are inflexible and require fixed priors.
method Trains a probabilistic diffusion model with transformer architectures.
result Outperforms state-of-the-art methods on various benchmarks.
PE-SVI reduces SVI inference complexity by finding a suitable start point.
problem Complex posterior inference in graphical models leads to suboptimal learning.
method PE-SVI uses a pseudo-encoded start point to reduce gradient steps and step sizes.
result PE-SVI achieves the same ELBo objective as SVI with less than 1% of the required steps.
Improved Bayesian inference for neuronal ensemble inference reduces computational cost.
problem Efficient inference of neuronal ensembles from activity data.
method Modified MCMC algorithm with simulated annealing for hyperparameter control.
result Our method reduces computational cost while maintaining or improving inference accuracy.
Adding metadata abruptly changes network inference outcomes.
problem Understanding the impact of metadata on network inference.
method Investigated the effect of metadata on network inference problems.
result Metadata causes abrupt transitions in inference outcomes.
SNVI combines likelihood estimation with variational inference for efficient Bayesian inference.
problem Bayesian inference in models with intractable likelihoods.
method Sequential Neural Variational Inference (SNVI) that combines likelihood-estimation with variational inference.
result SNVI is more computationally efficient than previous algorithms without sacrificing accuracy.
Paper introduces a diagnostic for approximate inference methods.
problem Estimating errors in probabilistic inference algorithms, especially for approximate methods.
method Repeatedly simulate datasets from the prior and perform inference on each, estimating a symmetric KL-divergence.
result A diagnostic for approximate inference methods can be estimated using symmetric KL-divergence.
Recent efforts on combining deep models with probabilistic graphical models are promising in providing flexible models that are also easy to interpret. We propose a variational message-passing algorithm for variational inference in such models. We make three contributions. First, we propose structured inference network…
Probabilistic inference procedures are usually coded painstakingly from scratch, for each target model and each inference algorithm. We reduce this effort by generating inference procedures from models automatically. We make this code generation modular by decomposing inference algorithms into reusable program-to-progr…
A new method for safer statistical inference after predictions.
problem Statistical inference with pseudo-outcomes from machine learning predictions.
method Prediction De-Correlated Inference (PDC) framework.
result PDC consistently outperforms supervised methods and can adapt to any model.
Paper proposes Walsh-Hadamard Variational Inference for efficient approximate inference in large models.
problem Over-regularization in variational inference for large models.
method Walsh-Hadamard factorization strategies to reduce parameterization, accelerate computations, and increase posterior expressiveness.
result Efficient approximate inference achieved in over-parameterized models.
Bayesian interpolants explain neural network inferences concisely.
problem Understanding neural network inferences.
method Adapting Craig interpolants for neural networks.
result Produces precise, understandable explanations.
ptype infers data types robustly in real-world data.
problem Type inference fails with missing data and anomalies.
method Probabilistic robust type inference method.
result Outperforms existing methods.
Variational inference provides a powerful tool for approximate probabilistic in- ference on complex, structured models. Typical variational inference methods, however, require to use inference networks with computationally tractable proba- bility density functions. This largely limits the design and implementation of v…
Neurally-Guided Structure Inference combines search and data-driven methods for efficient, robust structure inference.
problem Combining the advantages of exhaustive search and data-driven methods for structure inference.
method Neurally-Guided Structure Inference (NG-SI) uses a neural network to guide hierarchical search over structures.
result NG-SI outperforms search-based and data-driven methods on probabilistic matrix decomposition and symbolic program parsing.
Paper shows how to infer hidden states in neural networks analytically.
problem Intractability of Bayesian inference for neural networks.
method Leverage tractable approximate Gaussian inference (TAGI) for hidden states inference.
result Demonstrates inference of hidden states through constraints for various applications.
New comparison shows differences in how value is incorporated in AIF and CAI.
problem Clarifying the relationship between Active Inference and Control-as-Inference.
method Formal comparison of AIF and CAI frameworks.
result Primary difference is how value is incorporated into generative models.
Variational Inference shows promise for Bayesian GARCH model estimation.
problem Bayesian estimation of GARCH-family models using Monte Carlo sampling.
method Variational Inference as an alternative to Monte Carlo sampling.
result Variational Inference is a reliable and competitive method for Bayesian learning in GARCH-like models.
Post-ADC inference corrects bias in statistical inference after active data collection.
problem Bias in inference after active data collection.
method Post-ADC inference framework that corrects bias from both ADC process and data-driven target construction.
result Valid inference for data collected by SMBO methods like GP-UCB and TPE.
A new particle algorithm improves mean-field variational inference.
problem Efficiently approximating nonparametric posterior distributions in machine learning.
method Introduces PArticle VI (PAVI), a novel particle-based algorithm for nonparametric mean-field approximation.
result Obtains non-asymptotic error bounds for PArticle VI, providing the first end-to-end guarantee for particle-based MFVI.
Meta-learn Bayesian inference for task-specific BNNs using amortised inference.
problem Efficiently learning Bayesian inference for small-scale probabilistic meta-learning.
method Replace global inducing points with actual data to create a set of approximate likelihoods, train a meta-model to learn these parameters across related datasets.
result Meta-learned inference can be applied to task-specific BNNs, improving efficiency and scalability.
Bayesian method infers contextual bandit policies robustly.
problem Inference of contextual bandit policies in small sample sizes.
method Empirical likelihood for Bayesian inference.
result Accurate uncertainty measurements and policy comparison.
Exact selective inference with randomization for Gaussian regression models.
problem Exact selective inference in Gaussian regression models.
method Introduces a pivot for exact selective inference with randomization, reducing the problem to a bivariate truncated Gaussian distribution.
result Our pivot leads to exact inference and produces narrower confidence intervals than related methods.
BOED improves SBI by optimizing experimental designs and inference functions.
problem Efficiently use experimental resources for better inference on complex models.
method Link mutual information bounds between SBI and BOED, optimizing both design and inference.
result BOED improves inference in real-world simulators in epidemiology and biology.
Recent work used importance sampling ideas for better variational bounds on likelihoods. We clarify the applicability of these ideas to pure probabilistic inference, by showing the resulting Importance Weighted Variational Inference (IWVI) technique is an instance of augmented variational inference, thus identifying th…
Valid inference from data and predictions.
problem Valid statistical inference with machine learning predictions.
method Framework for valid inference using machine learning predictions.
result Valid confidence intervals without assumptions on predictions.
EFI automates statistical inference for big data.
problem Statistical inference for model parameters based on observations.
method EFI uses stochastic gradient Markov chain Monte Carlo and sparse deep neural networks.
result EFI provides higher fidelity in parameter estimation and automates the inference process.
Derives time-averaged active inference from control principles.
problem Finite-horizon or discounted-surprise problems in active inference.
method Derives infinite-horizon, average-surprise active inference from optimal control principles.
result Unified objective functional for sensorimotor control.
UA-SABI uses surrogates to speed up Bayesian inference for expensive models.
problem Inference for computationally expensive models is slow and uncertain.
method Combines surrogate modeling with Amortized Bayesian Inference (ABI) to propagate uncertainties.
result Reliable, fast, and repeated Bayesian inference for expensive models is achieved.
Adversarial robustness of amortized Bayesian inference is studied, showing it can be improved.
problem Adversarial robustness of amortized Bayesian inference.
method Simulation-based estimation, regularization scheme based on Fisher information.
result Adversarial robustness can be improved with a regularization scheme.
Deep learning enhances active inference for dynamic state spaces.
problem Limited applicability of active inference to continuous state spaces.
method Use of deep learning to approximate probability distributions for active inference.
result Active inference can be applied to continuous state spaces.
Probabilistic models can handle causal inference without special tools.
problem Confusion over necessary tools for causal inference.
method Demonstrated through concrete examples that causal questions can be answered using standard probabilistic models.
result Causal questions can be addressed using standard probabilistic modelling and inference.
New method uses EKI for efficient Bayesian inference in high-dimensional problems.
problem Efficient inference for high-dimensional posterior distributions in physics-informed neural networks.
method Ensemble Kalman Inversion (EKI) for high-dimensional posterior inference.
result EKI-based inference provides comparable uncertainty estimates to HMC-based methods but with reduced computational cost.
Predictive e-values enhance statistical inference across various tasks.
problem Insufficient data limits traditional statistical inference.
method Apply prediction-powered inference to e-values.
result Every e-value-based inference has a prediction-powered counterpart.