A locally-built, LLM-digested index of recent arXiv papers in quant finance, geometry/topology, and statistical ML — keyword search served straight from SQLite on this machine.
Study local sensitivity of HDD and CDD temperature derivatives prices.
One of the most pressing questions in climate science is that of the effect of anthropogenic aerosol on the Earth's energy balance. Aerosols provide the `seeds' on which cloud droplets form, and changes in the amount of aerosol available to a cloud can change its brightness and other physical properties such as optical…
Price limit trading rules are adopted in some stock markets (especially emerging markets) trying to cool off traders' short-term trading mania on individual stocks and increase market efficiency. Under such a microstructure, stocks may hit their up-limits and down-limits from time to time. However, the behaviors of pri…
Stochastic model prices weather derivatives for Indian states, highlighting temperature volatility impacts.
We demonstrate that graphs embedded on surfaces are a powerful and practical tool to generate, characterize and simulate networks with a broad range of properties. Remarkably, the study of topologically embedded graphs is non-restrictive because any network can be embedded on a surface with sufficiently high genus. The…
In this paper, we investigate the cooling-off effect (opposite to the magnet effect) from two aspects. Firstly, from the viewpoint of dynamics, we study the existence of the cooling-off effect by following the dynamical evolution of some financial variables over a period of time before the stock price hits its limit. S…
L-Cool improves image and language translation by cooling low-density samples.
Methane is considered being a good choice as a propellant for future reusable launch systems. However, the heat transfer prediction for supercritical methane flowing in cooling channels of a regeneratively cooled combustion chamber is challenging. Because accurate heat transfer predictions are essential to design relia…
Singapore's cooling measures did not increase housing wealth overall.
The study optimizes simulated annealing's cooling schedule for better performance.
New method reduces Gibbs partition function estimation complexity.
We provide an empirical investigation aimed at uncovering the statistical properties of intricate stock trading networks based on the order flow data of a highly liquid stock (Shenzhen Development Bank) listed on Shenzhen Stock Exchange during the whole year of 2003. By reconstructing the limit order book, we can extra…
Study reveals how illiquidity network signals Chinese stock market crashes.
We study an online multi-task learning setting, in which instances of related tasks arrive sequentially, and are handled by task-specific online learners. We consider an algorithmic framework to model the relationship of these tasks via a set of convex constraints. To exploit this relationship, we design a novel algori…
Study predicts price predictability in ultra-high frequency financial data using entropy tests.
New priors improve Bayesian neural networks without cooling.
Microstructures of a material form the bridge linking processing conditions - which can be controlled, to the material property - which is the primary interest in engineering applications. Thus a critical task in material design is establishing the processing-structure relationship, which requires domain expertise and …
We investigate the recently introduced variety of a set of stock returns traded in a financial market. This investigation is done by considering daily and intraday time horizons in a 15-day time period centered at the August 31st, 1998 crash of the S&P500 index. All the stocks traded at the NYSE during that period are …
Cost-aware BO minimizes function evaluations with varying costs.
C3 compresses images and videos with low complexity and high performance.
New model fills in missing traffic data efficiently.
The problem of portfolio optimization is one of the most important issues in asset management. This paper proposes a new dynamic portfolio strategy based on the time-varying structures of MST networks in Chinese stock markets, where the market condition is further considered when using the optimal portfolios for invest…
Neuroscientists have enjoyed much success in understanding brain functions by constructing brain connectivity networks using data collected under highly controlled experimental settings. However, these experimental settings bear little resemblance to our real-life experience in day-to-day interactions with the surround…
We prove a representation stability result for the second homology groups of Torelli subgroups of mapping class groups and automorphism groups of free groups. This strengthens the results of Boldsen-Hauge Dollerup and Day-Putman. We also prove a new representation stability result for the homology of certain congruence…
We conduct a market experiment with human agents in order to explore the structure of transaction networks and to study the dynamics of wealth accumulation. The experiment is carried out on our platform for 97 days with 2,095 effective participants and 16,936 times of transactions. From these data, the hybrid distribut…
Liouville domains have become central objects in symplectic and contact geometry. However, the auxiliary data they involve --- namely, Liouville forms --- and the non-compactness of their completions generate some inconvenience. The notion of ideal Liouville domains is designed to suppress these awkward aspects and to …
High-value transactions between Australian banks are settled in the Reserve Bank Information and Transfer System (RITS) administered by the Reserve Bank of Australia. RITS operates on a real-time gross settlement (RTGS) basis and settles payments sourced from the SWIFT, the Austraclear, and the interbank transactions e…
We investigate the planar maximally filtered graphs of the portfolio of the 300 most capitalized stocks traded at the New York Stock Exchange during the time period 2001-2003. Topological properties such as the average length of shortest paths, the betweenness and the degree are computed on different planar maximally f…
New framework for 3D spatial topology enumeration and identification.
We point out a stunning time asymmetry in the short time cross correlations between intra-day and overnight volatilities (absolute values of log-returns of stock prices). While overnight volatility is significantly (and positively) correlated with the intra-day volatility during the \textit{following} day (allowing thu…
Model captures SPX and VIX volatility surfaces and skew-stickiness ratio.
We decompose, within an ARCH framework, the daily volatility of stocks into overnight and intra-day contributions. We find, as perhaps expected, that the overnight and intra-day returns behave completely differently. For example, while past intra-day returns affect equally the future intra-day and overnight volatilitie…
Paper proposes a new model for imputing missing spatiotemporal traffic data.
New study finds day-of-the-week effects in stock market returns using multifractal analysis.
Using ultra-high-frequency data extracted from the order flows of 23 stocks traded on the Shenzhen Stock Exchange, we study the empirical regularities of order placement in the opening call auction, cool period and continuous auction. The distributions of relative logarithmic prices against reference prices in the thre…
CityTFT models urban building energy using a data-driven approach.
In this paper, we propose an information-theoretic exploration strategy for stochastic, discrete multi-armed bandits that achieves optimal regret. Our strategy is based on the value of information criterion. This criterion measures the trade-off between policy information and obtainable rewards. High amounts of policy …
With the widespread engineering applications ranging from artificial intelligence and big data decision-making, originally a lot of tedious financial data processing, processing and analysis have become more and more convenient and effective. This paper aims to improve the accuracy of stock price forecasting. It improv…
Study examines crypto-backed stable derivatives in DeFi, focusing on DAI.
This paper questions some current ideas about the practice of specific capital market operations - the so-called day trading operations. The text advanced from theoretical propositions to a detailed analysis of the study entitled "Is it possible to live by day-trading?" (CHAGUE and GIOVANNETTI, 2019), to which it offer…
Bayesian Optimization (BO) has become a core method for solving expensive black-box optimization problems. While much research focussed on the choice of the acquisition function, we focus on online length-scale adaption and the choice of kernel function. Instead of choosing hyperparameters in view of maximum likelihood…
Paper models and forecasts intra-day electricity price spreads.
We select the stocks traded in the New York Stock Exchange and we form a statistical ensemble of daily stock returns for each of the trading days of our database from the stock price time series. We study the ensemble return distribution for each trading day and we find that the symmetry properties of the ensem…
We give the first rigorous proof of the convergence of Riemannian Hamiltonian Monte Carlo, a general (and practical) method for sampling Gibbs distributions. Our analysis shows that the rate of convergence is bounded in terms of natural smoothness parameters of an associated Riemannian manifold. We then apply the metho…
In this paper, we study the dynamics of absolute return, trading volume and bid-ask spread after the trading halts using high-frequency data from the Shanghai Stock Exchange. We deal with all three types of trading halts, namely intraday halts, one-day halts and inter-day halts, of 203 stocks in Shanghai Stock Exchange…
Study analyzes Airbnb lead-time distributions for Nights Booked and Gross Booking Value, finding divergent shapes and tail behavior.
We develop numerical algorithms for solving the Einstein equation on Calabi-Yau manifolds at arbitrary values of their complex structure and Kahler parameters. We show that Kahler geometry can be exploited for significant gains in computational efficiency. As a proof of principle, we apply our methods to a one-paramete…
The daily volume of transaction on the New York Stock Exchange and its day-to-day fluctuations are analysed with respect to power-law tails as well long-term trends. We also model the transition to a Gaussian distribution for longer time intervals, like months instead of days.