A locally-built, LLM-digested index of recent arXiv papers in quant finance, geometry/topology, and statistical ML — keyword search served straight from SQLite on this machine.
Deep-MacroFin uses neural networks to solve complex economic models efficiently.
In science and especially in economics, agent-based modeling has become a widely used modeling approach. These models are often formulated as a large system of difference equations. In this study, we discuss two aspects, numerical modeling and the probabilistic description for two agent-based computational economic mar…
Modeling business cycles via collective risk fluctuations in economic agents' risk space.
SIMPOL solves complex economic models using numerical methods.
Introduces a new price measure and a second-order economic theory for volatility forecasting.
This paper studies a continuous-time market {under stochastic environment} where an agent, having specified an investment horizon and a target terminal mean return, seeks to minimize the variance of the return with multiple stocks and a bond. In the considered model firstly proposed by [3], the mean returns of individu…
Accelerators with power-law memory are proposed in the framework of the discrete time approach. To describe discrete accelerators we use the capital stock adjustment principle, which has been suggested by Matthews.The suggested discrete accelerators with memory describe the economic processes with the power-law memory …
We show that a simple model of a spatially resolved evolving economic system, which has a steady state under simultaneous updating, shows stable oscillations in price when updated asynchronously. The oscillations arise from a gradual decline of the mean price due to competition among sellers competing for the same reso…
The paper argues that attracting more economists and adopting a more-precise definition of dynamic complexity might help econophysics acquire more attention in the economics community and bring new lymph to economic research. It may be necessary to concentrate less on the applications than on the basics of economic com…
Some agent-based models for growth and allocation of resources are described. The first class considered consists of conservative models, where the number of agents and the size of resources are constant during time evolution. The second class is made up of multiplicative noise models and some of their extensions to co…
Researchers find a timing error in Black-Scholes-Merton option pricing model.
We develop from basic economic principles a continuous-time model for a large investor who trades with a finite number of market makers at their utility indifference prices. In this model, the market makers compete with their quotes for the investor's orders and trade among themselves to attain Pareto optimal allocatio…
We investigate hierarchical structure in various complex systems according to Minimum Spanning Tree methods. Firstly, we investigate stock markets where the graphis obtained from the matrix of correlations coefficient computed between all pairs of assets by considering the synchronous time evolution of the difference o…
Growth rate of the world Growth Domestic Product (GDP) is analysed to determine possible pathways of the future economic growth. The analysis is based on using the latest data of the World Bank and it reveals that the growth rate between 1960 and 2014 was following a trajectory approaching asymptotically a constant val…
ARTEMIS combines deep learning and symbolic reasoning for financial predictions.
This paper develops a mathematical framework for the analysis of continuous-time trading strategies which, in contrast to the classical setting of continuous-time mathematical finance, does not rely on stochastic integrals or other probabilistic notions. Our purely analytic framework allows for the derivation of a path…
We show that a trader, who starts with no initial wealth and is not allowed to borrow money or short sell assets, is theoretically able to attain positive wealth by continuous trading, provided that she has perfect foresight of future asset prices, given by a continuous semimartingale. Such an arbitrage strategy can be…
Market equilibrium price proven in a large-agent model.
A new definition of continuous-time equilibrium controls is introduced. As opposed to the standard definition, which involves a derivative-type operation, the new definition parallels how a discrete-time equilibrium is defined, and allows for unambiguous economic interpretation. The terms "strong equilibria" and "weak …
This paper introduces intrinsic time, a new measure of time for complex systems.
ACSSM models irregular time series with continuous dynamics.
Current economic theories miss most of economic dynamics.
New framework for fair online allocation in continuous time with deadlines.
In this paper we give definitions of matrix rates of return which do not depend on the choice of basis describing baskets. We give their economic interpretation. The matrix rate of return describes baskets of arbitrary type and extends portfolio analysis to the complex variable domain. This allows us for simultaneous a…
In this article we will show that the Macro-Economy and its growth can be modelled and explained exactly in principle by commonly known Field Theory from theoretical physics. We will show the main concepts and calculations needed and show that calculation and prediction of economic growth then gets indeed possible in D…
We consider a class of participation rights, i.e. obligations issued by a company to investors who are interested in performance-based compensation. Albeit having desirable economic properties equity-based debt obligations (EbDO) pose challenges in accounting and contract pricing. We formulate and solve the associated …
In this paper, the relevance of the Feller conditions in discrete time macro-finance term structure models is investigated. The Feller conditions are usually imposed on a continuous time multivariate square root process to ensure that the roots have nonnegative arguments. For a discrete time approximate model, the Fell…
From positions, attained by modern theoretical physics in understanding of the universe bases, the methodological and philosophical analysis of fundamental physical concepts and their formal and informal connections with the real economic measurings is carried out. Procedures for heterogeneous economic time determinati…
CFTM uses fractional Brownian motion for dynamic topic modeling.
Long and short memory in economic processes is usually described by the so-called discrete fractional differencing and fractional integration. We prove that the discrete fractional differencing and integration are the Grunwald-Letnikov fractional differences of non-integer order d. Equations of ARIMA(p,d,q) and ARFIMA(…
Study adds memory effect to Solow-Swan model for more accurate economic growth modeling.
Model predicts real-time job applicant numbers for regional economic analysis.
This paper introduces a novel framework for designing fair and sustainable unemployment benefits, grounded in cooperative game theory and real-time fiscal policy. The labor market is modeled as a coalitional game, where a random subset of participants is employed, generating stochastic economic output. To ensure fairne…
The financial crisis of 2008, which started with an initially well-defined epicenter focused on mortgage backed securities (MBS), has been cascading into a global economic recession, whose increasing severity and uncertain duration has led and is continuing to lead to massive losses and damage for billions of people. H…
Determining contributions by sub-portfolios or single exposures to portfolio-wide economic capital for credit risk is an important risk measurement task. Often economic capital is measured as Value-at-Risk (VaR) of the portfolio loss distribution. For many of the credit portfolio risk models used in practice, the VaR c…
Behavior of systems that are functions of anticipated behavior of other systems, whose own behavior is also anticipatory but homeostatic and determined by hierarchical ordering, which changes over time, of sets of possible environments that are not co-possible, is proven to be highly non-linear and sensitively dependen…
New framework detects time-varying economic persistence.
Graph learning captures financial dynamics over time.
We consider a discounted reward control problem in continuous time stochastic environment where the discount rate might be an unbounded function of the control process. We provide a set of general assumptions to ensure that there exists a smooth classical solution to the corresponding HJB equation. Moreover, some verif…
The paper analyzes RL in high-frequency market making with theoretical and practical implications.
In many physical, social or economical phenomena we observe changes of a studied quantity only in discrete, irregularly distributed points in time. The stochastic process used by physicists to describe this kind of variables is the Continuous Time Random Walk (CTRW). Despite the popularity of this type of stochastic pr…
The paper proposes a new model for predicting and analyzing economic variables.
Optimal fund deployment strategy under uncertain deal arrivals.
A generalized continuous economic model is proposed for random markets. In this model, agents interact by pairs and exchange their money in a random way. A parameter controls the effectiveness of the transactions between the agents. We show in a rigorous way that this type of markets reach their asymptotic equilibrium …
The paper proves the law of one price in a continuous-time setting without friction.
Surveying machine learning methods for economic forecasting.
FinML-Chain integrates blockchain data for financial machine learning.
In the light of contemporary discussions of inter and transdisciplinarity, this paper approaches econophysics and sociophysics to seek a response to the question -- whether these interdisciplinary fields could contribute to physics and economics. Drawing upon the literature on history and philosophy of science, the pap…