A locally-built, LLM-digested index of recent arXiv papers in quant finance, geometry/topology, and statistical ML — keyword search served straight from SQLite on this machine.
For an explanation of a deep learning model to be effective, it must provide both insight into a model and suggest a corresponding action in order to achieve some objective. Too often, the litany of proposed explainable deep learning methods stop at the first step, providing practitioners with insight into a model, but…
We introduce a new model-agnostic explanation technique which explains the prediction of any classifier called CLE. CLE gives an faithful and interpretable explanation to the prediction, by approximating the model locally using an interpretable model. We demonstrate the flexibility of CLE by explaining different models…
Modern learning algorithms excel at producing accurate but complex models of the data. However, deploying such models in the real-world requires extra care: we must ensure their reliability, robustness, and absence of undesired biases. This motivates the development of models that are equally accurate but can be also e…
The impressive performance of neural networks on natural language processing tasks attributes to their ability to model complicated word and phrase compositions. To explain how the model handles semantic compositions, we study hierarchical explanation of neural network predictions. We identify non-additivity and contex…
Transformers model contextual relations using probabilistic measures, revealing their expressive power.
problem Lack of clear understanding of Transformer's ability to model contextual relations.
method Introduced a measure-theoretic framework connecting softmax attention and entropy-regularized optimal transport.
result Transformer architectures can approximate arbitrary contextual relations, and the choice of normalization affects how these relations are represented.
The Allais and Ellsberg paradoxes show that the expected utility hypothesis and Savage's Sure-Thing Principle are violated in real life decisions. The popular explanation in terms of 'ambiguity aversion' is not completely accepted. On the other hand, we have recently introduced a notion of 'contextual risk' to mathemat…
Translating machine learning (ML) models effectively to clinical practice requires establishing clinicians' trust. Explainability, or the ability of an ML model to justify its outcomes and assist clinicians in rationalizing the model prediction, has been generally understood to be critical to establishing trust. Howeve…
The original research question here is given by marketers in general, i.e., how to explain the changes in the desired timescale of the market. Tangled String, a sequence visualization tool based on the metaphor where contexts in a sequence are compared to tangled pills in a string, is here extended and diverted to dete…
Detecting and explaining anomalies is a challenging effort. This holds especially true when data exhibits strong dependencies and single measurements need to be assessed and analyzed in their respective context. In this work, we consider scenarios where measurements are non-i.i.d, i.e. where samples are dependent on co…
The bundle approach and n-contextuality reveal quantum model contextuality.
problem Understanding contextuality in quantum models using topology.
method Using the bundle approach, we describe contextuality as the non-existence of global sections in the measure bundle. We introduce n-contextuality to explore model dependence on scenario topology.
result Quantum theory and GHZ models exhibit all levels of n-contextuality, showing contextuality is related to holonomy group non-triviality.
Thompson Sampling bounds for contextual bandits with sub-Gaussian rewards.
problem Improving the performance of Thompson Sampling in contextual bandits with sub-Gaussian rewards.
method Proved comprehensive bounds on Thompson Sampling expected cumulative regret based on mutual information and lifted information ratio for sub-Gaussian rewards.
result Explicit regret bounds for various contextual bandit scenarios.
Many methods to explain black-box models, whether local or global, are additive. In this paper, we study global additive explanations for non-additive models, focusing on four explanation methods: partial dependence, Shapley explanations adapted to a global setting, distilled additive explanations, and gradient-based e…
Accurate time-series forecasting is vital for numerous areas of application such as transportation, energy, finance, economics, etc. However, while modern techniques are able to explore large sets of temporal data to build forecasting models, they typically neglect valuable information that is often available under the…
A method for unsupervised contextual anomaly detection is proposed using a cross-linked pair of Variational Auto-Encoders for assigning a normality score to an observation. The method enables a distinct separation of contextual from behavioral attributes and is robust to the presence of anomalous or novel contextual at…
We consider the stochastic linear (multi-armed) contextual bandit problem with the possibility of hidden simple multi-armed bandit structure in which the rewards are independent of the contextual information. Algorithms that are designed solely for one of the regimes are known to be sub-optimal for the alternate regime…
Contextual bandit algorithms provide principled online learning solutions to balance the exploitation-exploration trade-off in various applications such as recommender systems. However, the learning speed of the traditional contextual bandit algorithms is often slow due to the need for extensive exploration. This poses…
The paper proposes criteria and methods for evaluating and aggregating feature-based model explanations.
problem Lack of quantitative evaluation criteria for feature-based model explanations.
method Developed quantitative evaluation criteria (low sensitivity, high faithfulness, low complexity), devised a framework for aggregation, and derived a new aggregate Shapley value explanation function.
result A new aggregate Shapley value explanation function that minimizes sensitivity.