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arXiv research

A locally-built, LLM-digested index of recent arXiv papers in quant finance, geometry/topology, and statistical ML — keyword search served straight from SQLite on this machine.

168,695 papers · 148 categories

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4284126168 · Jun 202019922001200920172026
48 results for Confirmation Bias

Confirmation bias leads to biased estimates in noisy data analysis.

problem Confirmation bias affects scientific conclusions in noisy data environments.
method Investigation of confirmation bias in Gaussian mixture models using K-means and EM algorithms.
result Estimates from algorithms are biased and resemble initial hypotheses, not the noise.

The paper detects and identifies bias in data using a counterfactual approach.

problem Detecting and identifying bias in data, especially in medical image classification.
method A global explanation framework using the counterfactual approach to identify bias causing artifacts.
result Black frames significantly influence Convolutional Neural Network's prediction, changing benign to malignant.

Mitigates confirmation bias in SSL by adjusting pseudo labels dynamically.

problem Confirmation bias in semi-supervised learning leads to errors in pseudo labels.
method TaMatch framework adjusts scaling ratio to debias pseudo labels and dynamically adjusts target distribution.
result TaMatch significantly outperforms existing methods in SSL tasks.

LLMs show biases in investment analysis, leading to unreliable recommendations.

problem LLMs face conflicts between pre-trained knowledge and real-time market data, leading to biases in investment analysis.
method Experimental framework to investigate emergent behaviors in LLMs, analyzing sector, size, and momentum biases.
result Distinct, model-specific biases observed, including a tendency to prefer technology stocks, large-cap stocks, and contrarian strategies.

The paper tackles sampling bias in credit scoring models and proposes methods to improve their training and evaluation.

problem Sampling bias in credit scoring models leads to an incomplete representation of the borrower population.
method Bias-aware self-learning framework and Bayesian evaluation method to correct for bias.
result Bayesian evaluation outperforms standard accuracy measures in predicting future performance.

Deep learning models show bias and variance are aligned, not in trade-off.

problem The classical bias-variance trade-off in deep learning models.
method Empirical evidence and theoretical analysis of bias and variance in deep learning models.
result Squared bias is approximately equal to variance for correctly classified sample points in deep learning models.

Pseudo-label selection affects semi-supervised learning performance.

problem Selection of pseudo-labeled data impacts semi-supervised learning's generalization performance.
method Embedding pseudo-label selection into decision theory, deriving a novel selection criterion based on posterior predictive.
result BPLS (Bayesian pseudo-label selection) outperforms traditional methods in overfitting-prone data.

A method learns common bias for multiple low-variance tasks without hyper-parameter tuning.

problem Learning common bias for multiple low-variance tasks without manual tuning.
method Two variants of online learning methods (aggressive and lazy) that update bias after each datapoint or at the end of each task.
result Across-tasks regret bound derived for the method, showing faster rates for aggressive variant and standard rates for lazy variant.

SGD and weight decay encourage neural networks to learn low-rank weight matrices.

problem The bias of SGD towards low-rank weight matrices in neural networks.
method The study investigates the effect of SGD and weight decay on the rank of weight matrices in neural networks, both theoretically and empirically.
result Training with SGD and weight decay induces a bias towards rank minimization in weight matrices, which becomes more pronounced with smaller batch sizes and stronger weight decay.

Neural networks exhibit unimodal variance with model complexity, improving generalization.

problem The classical bias-variance trade-off does not apply to neural networks, leading to better generalization with larger models.
method Measured bias and variance of neural networks, confirmed empirically and theoretically.
result Neural networks show unimodal variance, leading to a double descent risk curve.

This paper investigates bias in resampled backtests for financial portfolios, finding it often negligible.

problem Bias in resampled backtests for financial portfolio evaluation.
method Investigation of bias in rolling-window mean-variance portfolios using resampling techniques.
result The bias in Sharpe Ratio estimates from IID resampling is often a fraction of estimation noise, making it tolerable.

Study improves statistical power for detecting algorithmic bias in educational data.

problem Challenges in measuring algorithmic bias using ABROCA due to skewed distribution.
method Investigates ABROCA's distributional properties and proposes nonparametric randomization tests.
result ABROCA-based bias assessments are underpowered in typical EDM sample sizes.

A neural framework corrects bias in estimating individual treatment effects.

problem Estimating individual treatment effects from observational data.
method An anchored neural architecture and precision-corrected intersection-bound inference.
result Corrected bias and maintained nominal coverage in high-dimensional settings.

Two-layer networks favor simple features, especially in complex datasets.

problem Simplicity bias in neural networks over-reliing on simple features.
method Characterization of two-layer neural networks with small weights and gradient flow.
result Features learned in middle training stages are more useful for out-of-distribution transfer.

DatedGPT prevents lookahead bias in financial forecasting models.

problem Lookahead bias in large language models trained on internet-scale data.
method Time-aware pretraining with annual data cutoffs and instruction fine-tuning.
result Models' knowledge is effectively bounded by their data cutoff year, improving forecasting validity.

Exposure bias refers to the train-test discrepancy that seemingly arises when an autoregressive generative model uses only ground-truth contexts at training time but generated ones at test time. We separate the contributions of the model and the learning framework to clarify the debate on consequences and review propos…

2019-10-01abs ↗pdf ↗

RegMixMatch optimizes Mixup for semi-supervised learning by integrating high- and low-confidence samples.

problem Mixup degrades SSL performance by compromising artificial labels purity.
method RegMixMatch integrates high- and low-confidence samples, uses class-aware Mixup, and mitigates confirmation bias.
result RegMixMatch achieves state-of-the-art performance in SSL benchmarks.

Distillation affects some classes more than others, impacting fairness and bias.

problem Distillation affects some classes more than others, impacting fairness and bias.
method Examined class-wise accuracy and fairness metrics (DPD, EOD) on models trained with different datasets.
result Increasing the distillation temperature improves the distilled student model's fairness and individual fairness.

Proposes a transformer model with geostatistical inductive bias for spatio-temporal forecasting.

problem Combining probabilistic rigor of geostatistics with flexible deep learning representations.
method Spatially-informed transformer with learnable covariance kernel.
result Successfully recovers spatial decay parameters end-to-end via backpropagation.

Paper proposes a new method to stabilize noisy gradient algorithms.

problem Stochastic-gradient Langevin algorithms can introduce bias when taming denominators depend on stochastic-gradient realizations.
method Proposes a structure-preserving framework for designing tamed denominators that avoid unnecessary taming and maintain the stabilizing effect of taming.
result The method avoids stationary bias and explains the stationary error split into bias and remaining error.

Analyzes how diffusion models learn, revealing a spectral bias in structure mastery.

problem Understanding the learning dynamics and bias in diffusion models.
method Developed an analytical framework using a Gaussian-equivalence principle to solve gradient-flow dynamics and integrate probability-flow ODEs.
result Exposes a universal inverse-variance spectral law: high-variance structure is mastered faster than low-variance detail.

We present a study on predicting the factuality of reporting and bias of news media. While previous work has focused on studying the veracity of claims or documents, here we are interested in characterizing entire news media. These are under-studied but arguably important research problems, both in their own right and …

2018-10-02abs ↗pdf ↗

GNIs induce asymmetric heavy-tailed noise in SGD, affecting network performance.

problem The effect of Gaussian noise injections on SGD dynamics and network performance.
method Developed a Langevin-like SDE driven by asymmetric heavy-tailed noise to model the modified SGD dynamics.
result GNIs induce an implicit bias that varies with noise heaviness and asymmetry, affecting network performance.

In critical decision-making scenarios, optimizing accuracy can lead to a biased classifier, hence past work recommends enforcing group-based fairness metrics in addition to maximizing accuracy. However, doing so exposes the classifier to another kind of bias called infra-marginality. This refers to individual-level bia…

2019-09-03abs ↗pdf ↗

Paper tackles causal inference with partially labeled data, introducing robust methods.

problem Challenges in causal inference due to partially labeled datasets and potential bias.
method Decaying missing-at-random framework and BRSS estimator for doubly robust causal inference.
result Established asymptotic normality of BRSS estimator under decaying labeling propensity scores.

AMA-LSTM improves stock volatility prediction using adversarial training.

problem Predicting stock volatility from financial audio data is challenging due to stochasticity and bias.
method Adversarial training to generate perturbations that simulate stochasticity and bias.
result AMA-LSTM outperforms state-of-the-art methods in predicting stock volatility.

Ask-n-Learn uses gradient embeddings for active learning in image classification.

problem Efficiently labeling large amounts of training data for deep models.
method Gradient embeddings based on pseudo-labels, prediction calibration, and data augmentation.
result Significant improvements over state-of-the-art baselines on image classification tasks.

The paper connects neural collapse and low-rank bias in networks with L2 regularization.

problem Understanding the emergence of low-rank bias and neural collapse in L2-regularized networks.
method Unified theoretical framework linking TCV and rank of weight matrices, proving global optimality of DNC1, and establishing a benign landscape property.
result Zero TCV across intermediate layers minimizes representation cost under natural architectural constraints, and DNC1 is globally optimal.

Synthetic learning improves neonatal brain MRI segmentation robustness.

problem Challenges in neonatal brain MRI segmentation due to image contrast and anatomical variations.
method Synthetic learning model trained on few T2-weighted volumes, then enhanced with motion artifacts and over-segmentation.
result Synthetic learning robust to image contrast and improves segmentation of both T1- and T2-weighted images.

Regularization is an effective way to promote the generalization performance of machine learning models. In this paper, we focus on label smoothing, a form of output distribution regularization that prevents overfitting of a neural network by softening the ground-truth labels in the training data in an attempt to penal…

2020-01-07abs ↗pdf ↗

Paper analyzes adaptive Lasso for high-dimensional diffusion processes, improving support recovery and bias.

problem Support recovery for high-dimensional diffusion processes under sparsity constraints.
method Adaptive Lasso estimator for d-dimensional ergodic diffusion process, focusing on linear models.
result Adaptive Lasso achieves support recovery and asymptotic normality for drift parameter under certain conditions.

This work explains how linear representations in large language models arise from training objectives and gradient descent.

problem Understanding the origins of linear representations in large language models.
method A latent variable model to abstract and formalize concept dynamics, combined with analysis of the softmax cross-entropy objective and gradient descent.
result Linear representations emerge when learning from data matching the latent variable model, and this simple structure suffices to yield linear representations.

Random imputation is surprisingly effective for linear predictors in missing data scenarios.

problem The effectiveness of naive imputation in missing data scenarios for linear predictors.
method A unique random features model framework to study predictive performances.
result Naive imputation is negligible in bias for linear predictors under MCAR assumption.