Partition Tree estimates conditional densities for mixed continuous and categorical variables.
problem Estimating conditional densities for mixed data types.
method Tree-based framework modeling conditional distributions as piecewise-constant densities on adaptive partitions, minimizing conditional negative log-likelihood.
result Improved probabilistic prediction compared to CART-style trees and state-of-the-art methods.
New algorithms learn simple staged trees from data, improving model fit.
problem Complex conditional independences in categorical data vectors.
method Structural learning algorithms for simple staged trees, coalescing the underlying tree.
result Data-learned simple staged trees often outperform Bayesian networks in model fit.
Sharp conditions link separators to R-trees for space transformations.
problem Conditions for separators to form R-trees under group actions.
method Sharp conditions linking separators to R-trees for space transformations.
result Sharp conditions linking separators to R-trees for space transformations.
Conditions for reducing quasi-actions to tree actions and group properties.
problem Conditions for reducing quasi-actions to tree actions.
method Reduction to cobounded isometric actions on trees.
result Groups with quasi-orbits quasi-isometric to trees are virtually free.
New tests for conditional copulas based on decision trees.
problem Testing constancy of conditional dependence structure given conditioning events.
method Data-driven decision trees to maximize differences in conditional Kendall's tau.
result Asymptotic distributions of test statistics under the null hypothesis.
Neural networks and tree ensembles are state-of-the-art learners, each with its unique statistical and computational advantages. We aim to combine these advantages by introducing a new layer for neural networks, composed of an ensemble of differentiable decision trees (a.k.a. soft trees). While differentiable trees dem…
Paper proposes using tree-based surrogate models for efficient Shapley computation.
problem Efficient computation of Shapley values using conditional expectations.
method Surrogate model-based tree for approximating Shapley and SHAP values.
result The proposed algorithm improves accuracy and unifies global interpretation.
The ability to adequately model risks is crucial for insurance companies. The method of "Copula-based hierarchical risk aggregation" by Arbenz et al. offers a flexible way in doing so and has attracted much attention recently. We briefly introduce the aggregation tree model as well as the sampling algorithm proposed by…
Improved Bayesian optimization for conditional parameter spaces.
problem Efficient global optimization of expensive-to-evaluate functions in conditional parameter spaces.
method Additive tree-structured covariance function for conditional parameter optimization.
result Significantly improved sample-efficiency and wider applicability compared to existing methods.
The paper uses regression trees/random forests to price Bermudan options more efficiently.
problem Pricing Bermudan options with conditional expectation estimation.
method Estimates conditional expectations using regression trees or random forests instead of traditional regression methods.
result Regression trees/random forests provide better results in high dimensions.
Bayesian networks are simplified for categorical variables using staged trees and asymmetry-labeled DAGs.
problem Representing non-symmetric conditional independences in Bayesian networks.
method Formalized relationship between Bayesian networks and staged trees, introduced asymmetry-labeled DAGs, and developed an algorithm to learn staged trees.
result A novel algorithm for learning staged trees that captures non-symmetric independences.
Estimates tree-based density from random vectors.
problem Estimating the density of a random vector in high dimensions.
method Optimal spanning tree minimizes Kullback-Leibler divergence; tree density estimate constructed from i.i.d. data.
result Tree density estimate converges to true density as sample size increases.
SNJ recovers latent tree models from similarity matrices.
problem Reconstructing latent tree models from observed data.
method Spectral Neighbor Joining (SNJ) method.
result SNJ is consistent and requires fewer samples for accurate tree recovery.
In this paper we give a sufficient and necessary condition for two rooted trees with the same plucking polynomial. Furthermore, we give a criteria for a sequence of non-negative integers to be realized as a rooted tree.
Detecting correlated trees helps align sparse graphs.
problem Detecting correlation between trees for sparse random graphs.
method MPAlign message-passing algorithm for graph alignment.
result MPAlign succeeds in polynomial time for partial alignment.
Analytic patch trees reveal new geometric structures and dimension fields.
problem Understanding the geometric and analytical properties of surface patch trees.
method Developed analytic surface patch trees and introduced interface curves to transmit state.
result Surface patch trees have natural foliations with one-dimensional curve trees and dimension fields.
Digital trees have approximate fixed point property, and conditions for products are explored.
problem Conditions for the approximate fixed point property in digital tree products.
method Analyzes digital trees and their products, explores conditions for the AFPP.
result Conditions are found for the AFPP in digital tree products.
Regression Trees analyze stock returns, revealing market excess return as the most informative factor.
problem Understanding informational content of three factors in stock returns.
method Joint regression tree analysis of daily stock return data for 5 major US corporations.
result The market excess return factor is always the most informative in all cases (solo and joint).
We consider the problem of estimating the conditional probability of a label in time O(log n), where n is the number of possible labels. We analyze a natural reduction of this problem to a set of binary regression problems organized in a tree structure, proving a regret bound that scales with the depth of the tree. Mot…
Selective inference framework for CART trees to control error rates and coverage.
problem Inference on CART trees does not control Type 1 error rates and coverage.
method Selective inference framework conditioning on tree estimation, efficient algorithms.
result Proposes tests and intervals for CART trees with selective error control.
Introduces Conditional Action Trees to simplify RL action spaces.
problem Challenges in RL with large, complex action spaces.
method Structures action spaces and reduces complexity through Conditional Action Trees.
result Demonstrates effectiveness in reducing action space and improving decision making.
A new algorithm converts staged trees into Chain Event Graphs.
problem Creating explicit representations of structural zeros and conditional independences.
method Iterative backward algorithm transforming a staged tree into a CEG.
result No information is lost in the transformation from staged tree to CEG.
Decision trees can be biased towards minority class, contrary to belief.
problem Bias in decision trees towards minority class in imbalanced datasets.
method Critical evaluation of past literature, specific conditions analysis, tree-fitting adjustments, and post-hoc calibration methods.
result Decision trees can be biased towards minority class under specific conditions, not always towards majority.
UnmaskingTrees improves tabular data imputation and generation using gradient-boosted decision trees.
problem Traditional methods outperform advanced deep learning techniques on tabular data imputation benchmarks.
method UnmaskingTrees employs gradient-boosted decision trees to incrementally unmask features for imputation and generation.
result UnmaskingTrees outperforms state-of-the-art methods on tabular imputation and generation benchmarks.
ShapShift explains shifts in model predictions due to data distribution changes.
problem Prediction shifts caused by changes in input distribution.
method Subgroup Conditional Shapley Values applied to decision trees and ensembles.
result Simple, faithful, and near-complete explanations of prediction shifts across model classes.
The notion of friendliness between trees first appeared in solution of Lando's problem on intersection of polyhedra in 3-space. A tree is friendly to a path graph if edges of the tree can be numbered so that for each k,s the path between the edges k and k+1 contains either both or none of the edges k+2s,k+2s+1. Theorem…
DTE uses tree leaf means to embed data, balancing accuracy and speed.
problem High variance in decision tree splits and computational inefficiency of ensembles.
method DTE constructs an interpretable feature representation using leaf means of a trained tree.
result DTE strikes a balance between accuracy and computational efficiency, outperforming ensembles.
DBT combines diffusion models and boosting for supervised learning.
problem Supervised learning problems.
method Diffusion Boosting paradigm and Diffusion Boosted Trees (DBT).
result DBT outperforms deep neural network-based diffusion models and is effective on real-world classification tasks.
Generative model for tabular data density regression.
problem Estimating conditional distribution of outcomes given covariates.
method Tree-based flow model for efficient sampling and likelihood evaluation.
result Our method achieves comparable or superior performance with reduced training and sampling costs.
Paper introduces methods to handle missing data in probabilistic regression trees.
problem Handling missing data in probabilistic regression trees.
method Three approaches: uniform probability, partial observation, and dimension-reduced smoothing.
result Preserves interpretability while extending applicability to incomplete datasets.
Treeffuser predicts tabular data distributions using gradient-boosted trees.
problem Probabilistic prediction with flexible, non-parametric models.
method Gradient-boosted trees for score estimation in conditional diffusion model.
result Treeffuser outperforms existing methods in probabilistic prediction tasks.
Efficiently learns Gaussian tree models with near-optimal sample complexity.
problem Learning tree-structured Gaussian distributions efficiently.
method Conditional mutual information tester for Gaussian variables, near-optimal sample complexity.
result Near-optimal sample complexity for structure learning of Gaussian tree models.
Boosting trees can test necessary conditions for regression model calibration.
problem Testing calibration and auto-calibration in regression models.
method Using boosting trees to test calibration and auto-calibration.
result Boosting trees prove to be very powerful in testing calibration and auto-calibration in large insurance datasets.
Ensemble of regression trees have become popular statistical tools for the estimation of conditional mean given a set of predictors. However, quantile regression trees and their ensembles have not yet garnered much attention despite the increasing popularity of the linear quantile regression model. This work proposes a…
We introduce block-tree graphs as a framework for deriving efficient algorithms on graphical models. We define block-tree graphs as a tree-structured graph where each node is a cluster of nodes such that the clusters in the graph are disjoint. This differs from junction-trees, where two clusters connected by an edge al…
We consider the problem of modeling discrete-valued vector time series data using extensions of Chow-Liu tree models to capture both dependencies across time and dependencies across variables. Conditional Chow-Liu tree models are introduced, as an extension to standard Chow-Liu trees, for modeling conditional rather th…
The paper develops a theory for random forests, separating variance components and providing methods for estimating prediction intervals.
problem Understanding the variance and uncertainty in random forest predictions.
method Design-based theory, Monte Carlo averaging, PASR resampling.
result The floor of prediction uncertainty is positive and persists even without observation overlap, providing conservative prediction intervals.
Novel covariance function improves Bayesian optimization efficiency.
problem Efficient global optimization of expensive black-box functions.
method Additive tree-structured covariance function and parallel optimization algorithm.
result Significantly outperforms state-of-the-art methods in conditional parameter optimization.
Joint distributions over many variables are frequently modeled by decomposing them into products of simpler, lower-dimensional conditional distributions, such as in sparsely connected Bayesian networks. However, automatically learning such models can be very computationally expensive when there are many datapoints and …
Unique CaTherine wheel found for LQG geodesic tree.
problem Finding a unique CaTherine wheel for LQG geodesic tree.
method Necessary and sufficient conditions for topological trees in S2. result Unique CaTherine wheel constructed for LQG geodesic tree.
Risk bounds for Classification and Regression Trees (CART, Breiman et. al. 1984) classifiers are obtained under a margin condition in the binary supervised classification framework. These risk bounds are obtained conditionally on the construction of the maximal deep binary tree and permit to prove that the linear penal…
A new method explains mixed features for predictive models using conditional inference trees.
problem Explaining complex machine learning models with mixed features.
method Proposes a method to explain mixed features (continuous, discrete, ordinal, categorical) using conditional inference trees.
result Our method often outperforms current industry standards in various simulation studies and real-world financial data.
We study the Fibered Isomorphism conjecture of Farrell and Jones for groups acting on trees. We show that under certain conditions the conjecture is true for groups acting on trees when the stabilizers satisfy the conjecture. These conditions are satisfied in several cases of the conjecture. We prove some general resul…
Subagging improves regression tree performance, especially with many splits.
problem Improving regression tree performance with subsample aggregating.
method Formalized bias and variance dependencies, compared subagging to single trees, and analyzed optimal tree sizes.
result Subagging improves tree performance, especially with many splits.
We prove that for the harmonic measure associated to a random walk on Out(Fr) satisfying some mild conditions, a typical tree in the boundary of Outer space is trivalent and nongeometric. This answers a question of M. Bestvina.
We consider the inference of the structure of an undirected graphical model in an exact Bayesian framework. More specifically we aim at achieving the inference with close-form posteriors, avoiding any sampling step. This task would be intractable without any restriction on the considered graphs, so we limit our explora…
Bayesian model estimates treatment effects near cutoffs in regression discontinuity designs.
problem Estimating conditional average treatment effects in regression discontinuity designs.
method Develops a Bayesian additive regression tree (BART) model with linear leaf-level regressions.
result Adapts to different slopes on the running variable near the cutoff, providing interpretable inference.
Paper addresses limitations of traditional hierarchical clustering methods.
problem Traditional hierarchical clustering methods face limitations in binary trees and ultrametrics.
method Introduces the notion of a valid hierarchy and a two-step algorithm to construct a binary tree and prune it to enforce validity.
result Proposes a method to recover the finest valid hierarchy, which is not constrained to binary structures.