CCVA adjusts for climate change impacts on financial valuation.
problem Climate change impacts on financial valuation are currently ignored.
method Flexible parameterization to capture climate impacts on hazard rates.
result Significant impacts on interest rate swaps even with slow climate change.
Framework identifies causal factors of climate change using correlations and machine learning.
problem Understanding socioeconomic factors influencing carbon emissions and climate change.
method Three-step framework: correlation analysis, causal discovery, LLM interpretations.
result Adaptable solutions for data-driven policy-making and strategic decision-making.
Study shows climate change can cause a 'run on fossil fuels' affecting prices and production.
problem Impact of climate change expectations on fossil fuel markets and prices.
method Dynamic, general equilibrium model of climate-change-linked transition risk.
result Climate change expectations can lead to either increased or decreased fossil fuel prices, depending on economic responses.
First-best climate policy is a uniform carbon tax which gradually rises over time. Civil servants have complicated climate policy to expand bureaucracies, politicians to create rents. Environmentalists have exaggerated climate change to gain influence, other activists have joined the climate bandwagon. Opponents to cli…
AutoML struggles with climate change data, but offers potential improvements.
problem Improving machine learning for climate change applications.
method Benchmarked AutoML libraries on climate modeling, wind power, and catalyst discovery.
result Current AutoML techniques fail to surpass human-designed models in climate change applications.
Climate volatility reduces economic growth, especially in poorer countries.
problem Impact of climate volatility on economic growth.
method Exploiting data on 133 countries over 59 years, controlling for temperature changes.
result A 1 degree C increase in temperature volatility leads to a 0.3% decline in GDP growth.
The paper examines spillovers between agriculture, crude oil, carbon, and climate markets.
problem Understanding dynamic spillovers between agriculture, crude oil, carbon emission, and climate markets.
method A novel R2 decomposed connectedness approach. result Overall spillovers are mainly contemporaneous, not lagged; climate change significantly impacts others; agricultural markets have heterogeneous effects; corn is a major risk contributor.
Climate change is one of the greatest challenges facing humanity, and we, as machine learning experts, may wonder how we can help. Here we describe how machine learning can be a powerful tool in reducing greenhouse gas emissions and helping society adapt to a changing climate. From smart grids to disaster management, w…
According to a recent investigation, an estimated 33-50% of the world's coral reefs have undergone degradation, believed to be as a result of climate change. A strong driver of climate change and the subsequent environmental impact are greenhouse gases such as methane. However, the exact relation climate change has to …
Robustly detects and attributes climate change impacts under interventions.
problem Detect and attribute climate change impacts from observations robustly.
method Supervised learning with anchor regression for robust predictions under interventions.
result CO2 forcing can be robustly predicted from temperature patterns under strong solar forcing interventions.
A successful response to climate change needs vast investments in low-carbon research, energy, and sustainable development. Governments can drive research, provide environmental regulation, and accelerate global development, but the necessary low-carbon investments of 2-3% GDP have yet to materialise. A new strategy to…
HECT tests climate model outputs for reproducibility.
problem Ensuring climate models accurately reflect physical processes.
method Probabilistic classifiers for high-dimensional spatio-temporal data.
result A principled way to assess statistical reproducibility of climate models.
Climate-contingent finance helps adapt to uncertain climate risks.
problem Uncertainty in future climate scenarios makes proactive adaptation less feasible.
method Underwrite climate adaptation projects with repayment based on future climate scenarios.
result Optimal financing reduces over- and under-preparation risks.
The paper introduces ESE scores for farmers to assess climate change risks.
problem Assessing climate change risks in individual farmers' credit evaluations.
method Integrating ESG variables into joint liability models and using a mean-variance utility function.
result Optimal group sizes and individual-ESE score relationships under various climatic conditions.
Study analyzes climate impact on agricultural prices, offering insurance solutions.
problem Financial risk from climate-induced agricultural price volatility.
method Historical and future climate projections, EGARCH and SARIMAX models, Black-Scholes framework.
result Improved agricultural risk modeling and insurance mechanisms.
Modeling climate change costs with stochastic interest rates shows inequality, but funding abatement can reduce this.
problem Evaluating the costs and benefits of climate change mitigation with uncertain discount rates.
method Amended DICE model with stochastic interest rates and funding abatement costs.
result Introducing funding abatement can reduce intergenerational inequality in climate change costs.
Study predicts climate data at distant locations using machine learning.
problem Predict climate variables at distant locations where comprehensive data collection is not feasible.
method Uses reservoir computing and vector autoregression models for prediction.
result Machine learning improves prediction accuracy for highly correlated data.
Climate change is widely expected to increase weather related damage and the insurance claims that result from it. This will increase insurance premiums, in a way that is independent of a customer's contribution to the causes of climate change. Insurance provides a financial mechanism that mitigates some of the consequ…
Climate change impacts and adaptations are the subjects to ongoing issues that attract the attention of many researchers. Insight into the wind power potential in an area and its probable variation due to climate change impacts can provide useful information for energy policymakers and strategists for sustainable devel…
Nostradamus links climate and stock market performance.
problem Understanding the impact of climate on stock prices.
method Analyzing historical data, climate indicators, and natural disasters.
result Significant correlation between climate and stock price fluctuations.
Study predicts doubling of U.S. maize insurance claims due to climate change.
problem Climate change increases U.S. maize loss probability, impacting insurance claims.
method Neural Network Monte Carlo simulations to predict crop loss metrics.
result Doubling of annual probability of maize Yield Protection insurance claims by mid-century.
Machine learning improves measuring climate adaptation impacts.
problem Measuring adaptation to climate change using weather damage elasticities.
method Debiased machine learning approach in panel data settings.
result Long-run impacts of damaging heat exposure significantly offset short-run impacts.
Study models risks for low-carbon economy in Balkan countries, focusing on shadow economy and populism.
problem Risks and uncertainties in establishing a low-carbon economy in Balkan countries with transition economies.
method Transdisciplinary approach combining economic policy, public opinion, and climate change models.
result Identifies shadow economy and populism as key risk factors for low-carbon economy implementation.
New model identifies anticyclonic patterns causing drought and heat.
problem Identifying atmospheric drivers of drought and heat.
method Smoothed convolutional neural network classifier for anticyclonic circulations.
result Helps identify important drivers of hot and dry extremes in climate simulations.
Researchers use DL and XAI to evaluate climate downscaling models.
problem Evaluating complex DL models for climate downscaling.
method Intercompare DL models, expand standard evaluation methods with XAI.
result XAI techniques provide new evaluation dimensions and model insights.
Study uses ML and statistical models to analyze climate impacts of industrial growth.
problem Understanding and predicting environmental impacts of industrial activities.
method Comparative analysis of ML and statistical models on time series data.
result ML models outperform statistical models in predicting environmental impacts.
Study combines variational inference and transformers for seasonal climate predictions.
problem Lack of robust seasonal predictions due to limited historical records and computational constraints.
method Combines variational inference with transformer models trained on climate model output.
result Method provides skilful predictions beyond climate change-induced trends in various regions.
Defines an implied CO2-price to cover climate change costs, finding it significantly higher than the SCC.
problem The social cost of carbon (SCC) does not fully cover climate change costs.
method Defines an implied CO2-price as a 'polluter pays principle' and calculates its value using a DICE model.
result The cost-implied CO2 price is around 500/tCO2,comparedto50/tCO2 for SCC. Study assesses sugar beet yields under EU's neonicotinoids ban and climate change.
problem Impact of yellow virus on sugar beet yields under neonicotinoids ban and climate change.
method Modeling using climate datasets and simulations of aphid flight and abundance.
result Reconstructs sugar beet yields using 'as if' approach without neonicotinoids.
Study evaluates deep learning methods for climate downscaling over Spain.
problem Deep learning methods' extrapolation capability for climate projections.
method Intercomparison experiment using PP and RCM emulation models.
result Existing models struggle with extrapolating unseen conditions.
Unified framework detects shifts in climate boundaries using GP regression and MAD test.
problem Challenges in quantifying and testing for temporal shifts in spatial boundaries from noisy data.
method Combines heteroskedastic GP regression with scaled MAD GET.
result No significant decade-scale changes in arid and semi-arid interfaces, but localized shifts during extreme droughts identified.
The paper analyzes extreme temperature forecasting using machine learning models.
problem Forecasting extreme temperatures in U.S. cities.
method Auto-Regressive Integrated Moving Average, Exponential Smoothing, Multilayer Perceptrons, Gaussian Processes.
result Multilayer Perceptrons were found to be the most effective approach for forecasting extreme temperatures.
SPF uses a hierarchical approach to efficiently emulate climate changes.
problem Slow and unstable climate emulation for long horizons.
method Spatiotemporal Pyramid Flows (SPF) model data hierarchically across spatial and temporal scales.
result SPF outperforms flow matching baselines and pre-trained models on ClimateBench.
EcoCast predicts biodiversity risks using satellite data and citizen science records.
problem Unprecedented shifts in species distributions due to climate change and habitat loss.
method Spatio-temporal model using sequence-based transformers and continual learning.
result Promising improvements in forecasting bird species distributions compared to Random Forest.
Conventional economic analysis of stringent climate change mitigation policy generally concludes various levels of economic slowdown as a result of substantial spending on low carbon technology. Equilibrium economics however could not explain or predict the current economic crisis, which is of financial nature. Meanwhi…
Study assesses drought and late-frost risks in Bavaria using vine copulas.
problem Assessing risks of late-frost and drought in Bavaria due to climate change.
method Used vine copula models for non-Gaussian and asymmetric dependencies, with univariate and bivariate regression analyses.
result Identified 'at-risk' regions for forest adaptation.
Proves lower discount rates are needed for future losses.
problem Determining appropriate discount rates for future losses.
method Analyzes climate change and discount rates debate.
result Risk requires a lower, not higher, discount rate.
New method preserves GCM spatial dependencies for better climate projections.
problem Systemic biases in GCM output and loss of spatial/temporal dependencies.
method SPECD approach using Vecchia approximation and semi-parametric quantile regression.
result SPECD preserves key marginal and joint distribution properties of precipitation and temperature.
Though machine learning has achieved notable success in modeling sequential and spatial data for speech recognition and in computer vision, applications to remote sensing and climate science problems are seldom considered. In this paper, we demonstrate techniques from unsupervised learning of future video frame predict…
Deep learning improves stochastic downscaling of climate variables.
problem Accurately capturing climatic variability at local scales.
method Proposed improvements to GANs for stochastic downscaling of climate variables.
result Improved stochastic calibration of GANs for high-resolution climate predictions.
Study identifies new stable climate states in climate model.
problem Understanding multistability and transitions in climate models.
method Combination of quasipotential theory and manifold learning.
result Discovery of a third stable climate state not previously known.
New model predicts banana disease risk from climate data.
problem Managing Black Sigatoka disease under climate change.
method Latent Neural ODEs to model infection dynamics.
result Superior generalization performance up to one month ahead.
Climate change affects occurrences of floods and droughts worldwide. However, predicting climate impacts over individual watersheds is difficult, primarily because accurate hydrological forecasts require models that are calibrated to past data. In this work we present a large-scale LSTM-based modeling approach that -- …
CityTFT models urban building energy using a data-driven approach.
problem Current UBEM methods are time-consuming and based on physics.
method CityTFT uses a TFT framework with an augmented loss function.
result CityTFT predicts energy demands with high accuracy.
SwiGAN generates drought scenarios for climate risk management.
problem Natural catastrophes and droughts increase insurance costs.
method Conditional GANs for generating spatio-temporal SWI maps.
result Simulates drought patterns up to 2050 for French regions.
This study explores wind energy resources in different locations through the Gulf of Oman and also their future variability due climate change impacts. In this regard, EC-EARTH near surface wind outputs obtained from CORDEX-MENA simulations are used for historical and future projection of the energy. The ERA5 wind data…
This paper corrects climate model biases using a factor model approach.
problem Systematic biases in GCM outputs due to unobserved confounders.
method Factor model approach to learn latent confounders from historical data and apply them to enhance bias correction.
result Significant improvements in the accuracy of precipitation outputs.
AI boosts study of rare weather extremes with lower costs.
problem Difficulty in studying rare weather events due to limited data and models.
method Coupling AI forecasts with physics models using rare-event algorithms.
result Efficiently characterizes very rare events like once-per-millennium heatwaves.