Focal loss improves classification but not class-posterior probability estimation.
problem Improving class-posterior probability estimation from focal loss.
method Proved classification-calibration and derived a transformation to recover true class-posterior probabilities.
result A transformation of the confidence score from focal loss minimization allows recovery of true class-posterior probabilities.
Theoretical framework for M-posteriors connects Bayesian and frequentist statistics.
problem Connecting Bayesian and frequentist approaches in statistical inference.
method Developed a theoretical framework for M-posteriors, showing asymptotic normality and frequentist consistency.
result M-posteriors are robust and contract around M-estimators under mild conditions.
New priors can update posteriors without re-estimating likelihoods.
problem Degradation of classification approaches when class priors change.
method Recompute posteriors using recovered likelihoods from original posteriors and new priors.
result Dynamic update of original posteriors is possible without re-estimating likelihoods.
One of the central themes in the classification task is the estimation of class posterior probability at a new point x. The vast majority of classifiers output a score for x, which is monotonically related to the posterior probability via an unknown relationship. There are many attempts in the literature …
We study convergence rates of variational posterior distributions for nonparametric and high-dimensional inference. We formulate general conditions on prior, likelihood, and variational class that characterize the convergence rates. Under similar "prior mass and testing" conditions considered in the literature, the rat…
Implied posterior probability of a given model (say, Support Vector Machines (SVM)) at a point x is an estimate of the class posterior probability pertaining to the class of functions of the model applied to a given dataset. It can be regarded as a score (or estimate) for the true posterior probability, which ca…
PosCal training improves classification models by calibrating posterior probabilities.
problem Poorly calibrated posterior probabilities in classification models.
method End-to-end training procedure that directly optimizes the objective while minimizing the difference between predicted and empirical posterior probabilities.
result PosCal training achieves about 2.5% task performance gain and 16.1% calibration error reduction.
Dual-T method improves transition matrix estimation in noisy label learning.
problem Large estimation error in noisy class posterior leads to poor transition matrix estimation.
method Introducing an intermediate class to avoid direct estimation of noisy class posterior, factorizing the transition matrix into two easier-to-estimate matrices.
result The dual-T estimator leads to better classification performances.
We propose to model the acoustic space of deep neural network (DNN) class-conditional posterior probabilities as a union of low-dimensional subspaces. To that end, the training posteriors are used for dictionary learning and sparse coding. Sparse representation of the test posteriors using this dictionary enables proje…
The representation of the approximate posterior is a critical aspect of effective variational autoencoders (VAEs). Poor choices for the approximate posterior have a detrimental impact on the generative performance of VAEs due to the mismatch with the true posterior. We extend the class of posterior models that may be l…
We propose a black-box variational inference method to approximate intractable distributions with an increasingly rich approximating class. Our method, termed variational boosting, iteratively refines an existing variational approximation by solving a sequence of optimization problems, allowing the practitioner to trad…
Graph Posterior Network improves uncertainty estimation for node classification in interdependent graphs.
problem Uncertainty quantification for non-independent node-level predictions in graphs.
method Derives axioms for expected predictive uncertainty, proposes Graph Posterior Network (GPN) which performs Bayesian posterior updates.
result GPN outperforms existing approaches for uncertainty estimation in semi-supervised node classification.
Variational autoencoders often collapse, showing latent variables are non-identifiable.
problem Posterior collapse in variational autoencoders due to non-identifiable latent variables.
method Proves latent variable non-identifiability causes posterior collapse. Proposes latent-identifiable models using Brenier maps and input convex neural networks.
result Latent-identifiable models resolve posterior collapse and provide meaningful representations.
New method uses fractional posteriors for semiparametric inference with improved uncertainty quantification.
problem Semiparametric inference with nonparametric priors and fractional posteriors.
method Established a general Bernstein--von Mises theorem for fractional posterior distributions, proposed shifted-and-rescaled credible sets.
result Fractional posterior credible sets provide reliable uncertainty quantification but have inflated size; shifted-and-rescaled set is an efficient confidence set.
Thompson sampling (TS) is a class of algorithms for sequential decision-making, which requires maintaining a posterior distribution over a model. However, calculating exact posterior distributions is intractable for all but the simplest models. Consequently, efficient computation of an approximate posterior distributio…
Bayesian neural networks reveal multimodal predictive distributions.
problem Uncertainty quantification and interpretability in neural networks.
method Discretized prior for inner layer weights, Gaussian mixture approximation of posterior predictive distribution.
result Distinct parameter realizations can produce the same training error but different posterior predictive distributions.
DDVI uses diffusion models for variational inference, improving latent variable model performance.
problem Improving variational inference in latent variable models.
method Introduces diffusion-based variational posteriors trained with a regularized ELBO.
result Outperforms alternative variational posteriors on various benchmarks and a biology task.
New GP methods account for both data and computational uncertainty.
problem Approximation error in Gaussian process models.
method Develops a new class of methods to estimate combined uncertainty.
result Proves convergence and decomposability of combined posterior covariance.
Class-conditional extensions of generative adversarial networks (GANs), such as auxiliary classifier GAN (AC-GAN) and conditional GAN (cGAN), have garnered attention owing to their ability to decompose representations into class labels and other factors and to boost the training stability. However, a limitation is that…
Method estimates noise transition matrix from noisy labels without relying on unreliable class-posterior estimation.
problem Estimating noise transition matrix from noisy data.
method Total variation regularization to encourage distinguishable predicted probabilities.
result Consistent estimator of the noise transition matrix under mild assumptions.
Bayesian method with Gaussian process priors achieves optimal convergence rates for regression function and its derivatives.
problem Estimating the regression function and its derivatives in nonparametric regression.
method Bayesian approach with Gaussian process priors, focusing on convergence rates and plug-in property.
result Equivalence of convergence rates of posterior distributions and Bayes estimators for regression function and its derivatives.
Bayesian PINNs learn elliptic PDEs with near-minimax posterior contraction rate.
problem Learning elliptic PDEs with noisy data and non-homogeneous boundary conditions.
method Bayesian approach with a Hölder space prior on neural network weights.
result Posterior contracts at near-minimax rate without prior knowledge of solution smoothness.
This paper argues against using calibration metrics for assessing posterior probabilities and proposes expected proper scoring rules instead.
problem The assessment of posterior probabilities generated by machine learning classifiers using calibration metrics is flawed and should be replaced with expected proper scoring rules.
method The paper reviews proper scoring rules from a practical perspective, explains why expected PSRs are a principled measure of posterior quality, and introduces a new calibration metric called calibration loss.
result Calibration loss is superior to expected calibration error and expected score divergence calibration metrics for assessing posterior probabilities.
The paper revisits and improves on a Bayesian relevance vector machine method for small sample sizes.
problem Statistical modeling with small sample sizes relative to the number of covariates.
method Introduces a new class of global-local priors and provides theoretical properties.
result Results on posterior consistency and contraction rates are provided.
We propose an input design method for a general class of parametric probabilistic models, including nonlinear dynamical systems with process noise. The goal of the procedure is to select inputs such that the parameter posterior distribution concentrates about the true value of the parameters; however, exact computation…
Bayesian nonparametric LABS model adapts to function smoothness in Besov spaces.
problem Estimating functions with unknown smoothness in Besov spaces.
method Lévy Adaptive B-spline (LABS) regression model with automatic smoothness adaptation.
result LABS posterior contracts around true function in Besov classes at nearly minimax-optimal rates.
This work tackles posterior collapse in conditional and hierarchical VAEs.
problem Posterior collapse in VAEs leads to poor latent variable representations.
method Theoretical analysis of linear conditional and hierarchical VAEs, empirical validation.
result Theoretical and empirical evidence of posterior collapse causes in conditional and hierarchical VAEs.
Improved VAEs learn consistent posterior distributions from missing data.
problem Learning VAEs from data with missing values, especially in the encoder.
method Formal definition of posterior consistency and regularization approach.
result Regularization leads to improved performance in reconstruction and downstream tasks.
Bayesian framework for sphere regression using Gaussian fields.
problem Nonparametric regression on the sphere with Gaussian priors.
method Isotropic Gaussian field priors, harmonic structure, exact posterior distributions, optimal spectral truncation, posterior contraction rates.
result Sharp posterior contraction rates for Gaussian priors with polynomially decaying angular power spectra.
New method prevents posterior collapse in iVAE models.
problem Posterior collapse in iVAE models where observations and ICs are independent given covariates.
method Developed CI-iVAE by considering a mixture of encoder and posterior distributions in the objective function.
result Prevents posterior collapse, resulting in latent representations with more information of the observations.
A new method approximates the exact posterior score for diffusion models.
problem Training-free guidance of diffusion models for image restoration and inverse problems.
method Presented a novel expression for the exact posterior score, leveraging it to compute step sizes on the fly.
result Demonstrated competitive performance with fewer time steps compared to state-of-the-art techniques.
We consider the inverse problem of reconstructing the posterior measure over the trajec- tories of a diffusion process from discrete time observations and continuous time constraints. We cast the problem in a Bayesian framework and derive approximations to the posterior distributions of single time marginals using vari…
Bayesian DWD improves classification of high-dimensional data.
problem Classifying high-dimensional data with uncertainty.
method Bayesian approach to DWD using MCMC for inference.
result Bayesian DWD yields well-calibrated class probabilities and penalized coefficients.
Bayesian histograms achieve optimal distribution estimation with minimal memory usage.
problem Efficiently estimating distributions with minimal memory footprint.
method Bayesian histograms for distribution estimation under Wasserstein distance.
result Bayesian histograms require fewer bins to achieve minimax optimality, reducing memory usage by a polynomial factor.
In this study, we present a multi-class graphical Bayesian predictive classifier that incorporates the uncertainty in the model selection into the standard Bayesian formalism. For each class, the dependence structure underlying the observed features is represented by a set of decomposable Gaussian graphical models. Emp…
Bayesian neural networks achieve optimal posterior contraction rates in Besov spaces with intrinsic dimensionality.
problem High-dimensional structured estimation problems with unknown smoothness levels.
method Sparse Bayesian neural networks with either sparse or continuous shrinkage priors.
result Optimal posterior contraction rates are achieved, adapting to the unknown smoothness level of the true function.
We present a general framework for classifying partially observed dynamical systems based on the idea of learning in the model space. In contrast to the existing approaches using model point estimates to represent individual data items, we employ posterior distributions over models, thus taking into account in a princi…
QBVI uses natural gradients for efficient Bayesian learning.
problem Efficient Bayesian learning in complex models.
method Natural gradient updates in a black-box framework for exponential-family distributions.
result QBVI framework is effective for a wide range of Bayesian inference problems.
New method corrects skewed confidence for PbN classification.
problem Weakly supervised binary classification with biased negative data.
method Corrects skewed confidence in negative data to improve classifier.
result Reduces distortion in posterior probability for PbN classification.
SJS model predicts label shifts in multinomial datasets.
problem Predicting label shifts in multinomial datasets.
method Sparse joint shift model for dataset shift.
result Valid predictions and class prior probabilities estimates.
This paper addresses error bounds and posterior variance for Gaussian process regression.
problem Deriving performance guarantees for Gaussian process regression without prior knowledge.
method Lipschitz continuity and analysis of posterior variance function.
result Uniform error bounds for Gaussian process regression are derived.
A new method optimizes a generalized Kullback-Leibler divergence for better simulation-based inference.
problem Optimizing likelihood functions when they are only known implicitly.
method Optimizes a generalized Kullback-Leibler divergence that accounts for normalization constants in unnormalized distributions.
result Unified approach that combines Neural Posterior Estimation and Neural Ratio Estimation.
We develop a Bayesian nonparametric approach to a general family of latent class problems in which individuals can belong simultaneously to multiple classes and where each class can be exhibited multiple times by an individual. We introduce a combinatorial stochastic process known as the negative binomial process (NBP)…
New conjugate priors improve Bayesian inference for multinomial probit models.
problem Lack of tractable conjugate priors for efficient Bayesian inference in multinomial probit models.
method Unified skew-normal (SUN) distributions as conjugate priors, leading to improved posterior inference and classification.
result Improved computational methods for posterior inference and classification, especially in high dimensions.
We develop a scalable method for Bayesian neural networks with stochastic differential equations.
problem Uncertainty quantification in deep neural networks.
method Gradient-based stochastic variational inference in continuous-depth Bayesian neural networks.
result Gradient estimator with zero variance as the approximation improves.
New method for efficient probabilistic inference using masked language modeling.
problem Efficient posterior inference in probabilistic programs with many hyper-parameters.
method Formulate inference as masked language modeling, train a neural network to unmask random values.
result Foundation posterior for zero-shot inference and fine-tuning across a range of programs.
Paper tackles sample-efficient offline RL, proposing data diversity and unified algorithms.
problem Sample-efficient learning from historical data for sequential decision-making.
method Proposes data diversity and unifies three offline RL algorithm classes: VS, RO, and PS.
result Comparable sample efficiency for VS, RO, and PS algorithms under standard assumptions.
In this paper we investigate the geometry of the likelihood of the unknown parameters in a simple class of Bayesian directed graphs with hidden variables. This enables us, before any numerical algorithms are employed, to obtain certain insights in the nature of the unidentifiability inherent in such models, the way pos…