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A locally-built, LLM-digested index of recent arXiv papers in quant finance, geometry/topology, and statistical ML — keyword search served straight from SQLite on this machine.

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8162331 · Oct 202519922001200920172026
48 results for Chain-of-Thought prompting

A method for learning with autoregressive chain-of-thoughts.

problem Learning prompt-to-answer mappings from sequence-to-next-token generators.
method Iterating a fixed, time-invariant generator for multiple steps to generate a chain-of-thought, then taking the final token as the answer.
result Universal representability and computationally tractable chain-of-thought learning for a simple base class.

This work analyzes CoT prompting methods from a statistical estimation perspective.

problem Improving the effectiveness of LLMs in solving multi-step reasoning problems.
method Introducing a multi-step latent variable model to characterize CoT prompting from a statistical estimation viewpoint.
result The CoT estimator is equivalent to a Bayesian estimator when the pretraining dataset is large.

Theoretical work shows integrating coherent reasoning improves LLM performance and error correction.

problem Improving reasoning and error correction in large language models (LLMs) with few-shot prompting.
method Theoretical analysis and sensitivity experiments on transformer behavior with coherent reasoning and corrupted demonstrations.
result The transformer gains better error correction ability and more accurate predictions when coherent reasoning is integrated.

Prefix consistency improves model reliability by weighting answers based on their reproducibility.

problem Improving the reliability of large language models' reasoning traces.
method Use prefix consistency to weight candidate answers based on their reproducibility during regeneration.
result Prefix consistency is the best correctness predictor, reaching Standard MV plateau accuracy with up to 21x fewer tokens.

CoT-UQ improves LLM uncertainty quantification by integrating reasoning steps.

problem LLMs' overconfidence and lack of response-wise uncertainty quantification.
method Integrates LLMs' reasoning steps into uncertainty estimation.
result Significantly improves uncertainty quantification accuracy (5.9% AUROC improvement).

Fractured Sampling improves LLM reasoning efficiency by truncating CoT trajectories.

problem Efficiently scaling reasoning in large language models with limited tokens.
method Integrating truncated Chain-of-Thought (CoT) with Fractured Sampling across multiple dimensions.
result Fractured Sampling achieves superior accuracy-cost trade-offs compared to full CoT.

The paper explores how LLMs with CoT improve performance on complex tasks.

problem Understanding the mechanisms behind LLMs' improved performance with CoT.
method Using circuit complexity theory, the paper examines LLMs' expressivity in solving mathematical and decision-making problems.
result LLMs with CoT can generate correct solutions step-by-step, even for complex tasks.

RNNs struggle with in-context retrieval, while Transformers excel.

problem In-context retrieval capability of RNNs.
method Theoretical analysis and experimental techniques (CoT, RAG, Transformer layer).
result Enhancing RNNs with techniques improves their in-context retrieval capability, closing the representation gap with Transformers.

ChatGPT improves financial reasoning, overcoming biases in gold investment.

problem Improving financial reasoning and overcoming biases in investment decisions.
method Applied advanced prompt engineering and semantic news information to enhance LLMs' performance.
result ChatGPT with CoT prompt provides more explainable predictions and higher investment returns.

Reasoning models generate differently based on problem difficulty, not just length.

problem Understanding how reasoning models handle different problem difficulties.
method Examined hidden-state trajectories across competitive programming, mathematics, and Boolean satisfiability.
result Corrected trajectory geometry shows difficulty-dependent differences in reasoning models, with stronger effects in the code domain.

LaTRO optimizes latent reasoning in LLMs without external reward.

problem Training LLMs to perform complex reasoning tasks.
method Formulates reasoning as latent distribution sampling and optimizes via variational approaches.
result LLMs improve reasoning and evaluation quality through self-improvement.

LLMs struggle with financial reasoning but can outperform the market with human oversight.

problem Financial reasoning failures in LLM-generated stock market predictions.
method Evaluated four LLMs using three prompting strategies and compared to human oversight.
result LLMs require human oversight to fully realize their potential in financial markets.

AI systems that explain their decisions can be monitored for harmful intentions.

problem Monitoring AI systems' decision-making processes for harmful intentions is imperfect and can miss some misbehavior.
method Monitoring the chain of thought (CoT) of AI systems that communicate in human language.
result CoT monitoring is a promising but fragile approach to AI safety.

Optimal sample complexity for autoregressive chain-of-thought learning proven.

problem Determining the minimum number of samples needed for accurate autoregressive chain-of-thought learning.
method Proved upper bound on sample complexity using Daniely-Shalev-Shwartz dimension and roll-out stable parity dimension.
result The sample complexity is bounded by the local next-token class rate, with no dependence on rollout length.

Transformers learn chain-of-thought reasoning for longer problems, proving length generalization.

problem Challenging problems require deeper reasoning, but how do models generalize this to longer tasks?
method Theoretical analysis of transformers on synthetic state-tracking tasks, proving length generalization through attention concentration.
result Transformers can learn chain-of-thought reasoning for longer problems, proving length generalization.

ChatGPT struggles in predicting stock movements, underperforming traditional methods.

problem Predicting stock market movements using ChatGPT.
method Zero-shot analysis of ChatGPT's multimodal stock prediction capabilities.
result ChatGPT underperforms traditional methods and state-of-the-art models in predicting stock movements.

New framework improves interpretability of trainable prompts.

problem Improving task-specific LLM performance with soft prompts remains a black-box method.
method Developed a theoretical framework for evaluating interpretability of trainable prompts, inspired new objective functions.
result Found a fundamental trade-off between interpretability and task performance in trainable prompts.

This paper investigates efficient Transformers and finds they scale with problem size.

problem Finding suitable replacements for standard Transformers in large-scale tasks.
method Modeling efficient Transformers (Sparse and Linear) as Dynamic Programming problems and analyzing their reasoning capabilities.
result Efficient Transformers scale with problem size, but can be more efficient for certain DP problems.

Study on how attention in prompt-tuning affects large language models.

problem Limited theoretical understanding of prompt-tuning and attention in LLMs.
method Exploration of prompt-tuning for one-layer attention architectures, contextual mixture-models, and self-contained prompt-attention model.
result Softmax-prompt-attention is more expressive than self-attention and linear-prompt-attention under contextual data model.

This paper improves learning complex functions with CoT supervision, reducing sample complexity.

problem Learning complex functions with multi-step reasoning.
method Develops a statistical theory linking CoT risk and end-to-end risk, using CoT information measure.
result CoT supervision can achieve significantly faster learning rates compared to standard E2E supervision.

InfoPrompt improves soft prompt tuning by maximizing mutual information, leading to better performance.

problem High sensitivity of prompt tuning to initial conditions and insufficient task-relevant information.
method Develops an information-theoretic framework to maximize mutual information between prompts and model parameters, using novel loss functions.
result InfoPrompt accelerates convergence and outperforms traditional methods.

Understanding optimal prompts for binary sequence predictors is challenging.

problem Finding good prompts for binary sequence predictors is difficult.
method Viewing prompting as finding the best conditioning sequence on a near-optimal sequence predictor, using empirical and statistical analysis.
result Optimal prompts can be better understood given the pretraining distribution, which is not usually available.

Summarizes financial news for better investment decisions.

problem Information overload from financial news hinders timely investment decisions.
method Personalized Chain-of-Thought summarization framework integrating user-specified keywords.
result Personalized summaries highlight relevant market signals, improving investment narratives.

Transformers solve parity problems efficiently with step-by-step reasoning.

problem Training transformers to solve complex, recursive problems like parity.
method Training a one-layer transformer to solve kk-parity, incorporating intermediate parities into the loss function, and using teacher forcing or augmented data.
result Transformers can learn parity in one gradient update with intermediate supervision or self-consistency checks.

Diffusion LLMs can efficiently generate harmful prompts for adversarial testing.

problem Generating harmful prompts for adversarial testing is resource-intensive and costly.
method Transformed adversarial prompt optimization into an efficient inference task using pretrained Diffusion LLMs.
result Only a few conditional samples are required to generate harmful prompts with high reward.

Study reveals how depth of reasoning affects generalization in models.

problem Understanding scaling behavior of generalization with CoT depth.
method Theoretical model of CoT in linear regression using random matrix theory.
result Sharp phase transition between exponential and polynomial improvement, saturation, and overthinking.

Transformer models can approximate smooth functions with prompts, enhancing LLMs' dynamic capabilities.

problem Lack of theoretical framework for prompt engineering in transformer models.
method Formal framework demonstrating transformer models can approximate ββ-times differentiable functions with prompts.
result Transformer models can approximate ββ-times differentiable functions with arbitrary precision using appropriately structured prompts.

Single-head transformers with a single self-attention layer can approximate any sequence-to-sequence function and are efficient under certain conditions.

problem Statistical and computational limits of prompt tuning for transformer-based models.
method Investigation of single-head transformers with a single self-attention layer, proving universality and efficiency under SETH.
result Existence of almost-linear time prompt tuning inference algorithms under certain conditions.

The study examines how extra compute during testing affects the performance of large language models.

problem Understanding the conditions under which test-time scaling improves model performance.
method An in-context weight prediction task for linear regression was used to train transformers. The performance was analyzed under varying levels of test-time compute.
result Training transformers on diverse, relevant, and hard tasks leads to the best performance for test-time scaling.

TRIPLE efficiently optimizes prompts with a budget constraint.

problem Efficiently selecting good prompts from a pool of candidates.
method TRIPLE connects prompt optimization to best arm identification in MAB, leveraging BAI-FB tools.
result TRIPLE outperforms baselines on multiple tasks with limited budget constraints.

The paper studies how search and distillation improve reasoning in large language models.

problem Improving reasoning capabilities of large language models.
method Viewing chain-of-thought generation as a metastable Markov process, proving benefits of search and distillation.
result Search protocol rewards sparse edges, reducing the expected number of steps to reach different clusters.

CoT enhances transformer accuracy on serial tasks by enabling serial computation.

problem Improving accuracy of large language models on inherently serial problems.
method Integrating a chain of thought (CoT) into decoder-only transformers to enable serial computation.
result Constant-depth transformers with CoT can solve problems in AC^0, surpassing TC^0 without CoT.

A conformal procedure improves CoT reasoning by aggregating reasoning paths and calibrating abstention rules.

problem Aggregation uncertainty in chain-of-thought reasoning makes correct answers less reliable.
method Introduces a conformal procedure for CoT reasoning that uses weighted score aggregation and abstention rules.
result Achieves higher selective accuracy with abstention, reducing confident-error rate.