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arXiv research

A locally-built, LLM-digested index of recent arXiv papers in quant finance, geometry/topology, and statistical ML — keyword search served straight from SQLite on this machine.

168,657 papers · 148 categories

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22446688 · May 202619922001200920172026
48 results for Causal Parents

Bayesian method for causal discovery from unknown general interventions.

problem Learning causal DAGs from unknown interventions that modify parent sets.
method Bayesian approach with MCMC for approximating posterior DAGs and intervention targets.
result Bayesian method can identify DAGs and intervention targets up to equivalence classes.

Invariant Causal Set Covering Machines avoid spurious associations.

problem Learning algorithms for rule-based models are vulnerable to spurious associations.
method Building on invariant causal prediction, propose Invariant Causal Set Covering Machines for conjunctions/disjunctions of binary-valued rules.
result The method can identify causal parents of a variable of interest in polynomial time.

New method for causal discovery using peeling algorithms for various data types.

problem Challenges in causal discovery due to unmeasured confounders.
method Two peeling algorithms (bottom-up and top-down) for causal discovery with generalized structural equation models.
result Valid discovery of causal relationships and parent-child effects in diverse data types.

The paper shows how instrumental variables can help identify sparse causal effects in linear models.

problem Identifying sparse causal effects in linear models with limited instruments.
method Conditions and graphical criteria for identifiability, spaceIV estimator.
result Causal effects can be identified from observed distributions with sparse effects and limited instruments.

Modular neural causal models outperform other models in generalization and adaptation.

problem Robust out-of-distribution generalization and fast adaptation in machine learning.
method Factorizing data generating process into modules using only causal parents as predictors.
result Modular neural causal models offer robust generalization and fast adaptation, especially in low data regimes.

We consider the problem of inferring the directed, causal graph from observational data, assuming no hidden confounders. We take an information theoretic approach, and make three main contributions. First, we show how through algorithmic information theory we can obtain SCI, a highly robust, effective and computational…

2018-08-20abs ↗pdf ↗

New method improves causal discovery in time series with latent confounders.

problem Low recall in causal discovery for autocorrelated time series with latent confounders.
method Iterative procedure that includes causal parents in conditioning sets, using novel orientation rules.
result Significantly higher recall compared to existing methods, especially in strong autocorrelation cases.

We consider the problem of learning the functions computing children from parents in a Structural Causal Model once the underlying causal graph has been identified. This is in some sense the second step after causal discovery. Taking a probabilistic approach to estimating these functions, we derive a natural myopic act…

2017-06-30abs ↗pdf ↗

M-CaStLe discovers causal structures in multivariate space-time data.

problem Challenges in causal graph discovery for high-dimensional gridded data.
method Generalizes CaStLe to multivariate analyses, using local embeddings and pooling spatial replicates.
result More accurately recovers multivariate causal structure and identifies physical dynamics.

Low-dimensional probability models for local distribution functions in a Bayesian network include decision trees, decision graphs, and causal independence models. We describe a new probability model for discrete Bayesian networks, which we call an embedded Bayesian network classifier or EBNC. The model for a node YY g…

2019-10-22abs ↗pdf ↗

Game theory approach to predicting and responding to interventions based on causal relationships.

problem Optimizing predictions and interventions in response to observational data.
method Prediction-intervention game framework, focusing on invariant subsets of covariates.
result Stable-blanket predictors are optimal for certain follower objectives and under specific conditions.

New algorithm learns causal graph to minimize regret in bandits without full structure.

problem Learning optimal decisions in bandits with unknown causal graph and latent confounders.
method Two-stage approach: first learns ancestors and necessary confounders, second applies standard bandit algorithm.
result No full causal structure needed for optimal decisions; only necessary confounders are crucial.

A novel method for learning DAGs from positive-valued data.

problem Causal discovery from observational data of positive-valued variables.
method Hybrid Moment-Ratio Scoring (H-MRS) algorithm combining moment-based scoring and log-scale regression.
result H-MRS integrates log-scale Ridge regression for moment-ratio estimation with a greedy ordering procedure based on raw-scale moment ratios, followed by Elastic Net-based parent selection.

This work sets a universal lower bound for learning causal DAGs with atomic interventions.

problem Learning causal DAGs using only observational data results in a Markov equivalence class, requiring interventions to fully orient.
method Developed CBSP orderings and used them to prove a universal lower bound on the number of single-node interventions needed.
result The universal lower bound is within a factor of two of the minimum number of single-node interventions required to fully orient a given Markov equivalence class.

The paper proves ML estimators are strongly consistent for identifying edge weights in BAR models.

problem Identifying edge weights in Bernoulli Autoregressive (BAR) models.
method Maximum Likelihood (ML) estimation for two variants of BAR models.
result ML estimators are strongly consistent for edge weight identification.

KaCGM models provide transparent causal inference from tabular data.

problem Limited auditability in deep causal models for tabular data.
method KaCGM uses Kolmogorov-Arnold Networks to parameterize structural equations, enabling direct inspection and visualization of causal mechanisms.
result KaCGM achieves competitive performance and interpretable causal effects in real-world applications.

Bayesian causal inference method improves accuracy over traditional approaches.

problem Bayesian marginalisation over causal models is computationally infeasible.
method Decomposes structure marginalisation into causal orders and DAGs, using Gaussian processes for mechanisms and ARCO for orders.
result Method outperforms state-of-the-art in structure learning and inference.

DAG-FM discovers causal relationships from heterogeneous data.

problem Challenges in causal discovery from heterogeneous causal mechanisms.
method DAG-FM uses two specialized Transformer-based sub-modules and a robust tabular interaction block to model complex row-column interactions.
result DAG-FM achieves state-of-the-art performance on synthetic and real-world datasets.

Three RFF-based methods for nonlinear causal discovery in mixed data.

problem Nonlinear causal discovery in mixed data with computational constraints.
method FFML, TRFF, and FFCI methods for score-based, constraint-based, and hybrid causal discovery.
result FFML and TRFF methods provide complementary performance in causal discovery.

We describe a formal approach to identify 'root causes' of outliers observed in nn variables X1,,XnX_1,\dots,X_n in a scenario where the causal relation between the variables is a known directed acyclic graph (DAG). To this end, we first introduce a systematic way to define outlier scores. Further, we introduce the concep…

2019-12-05abs ↗pdf ↗

Efficiently learns linear non-Gaussian DAGs with noisy nodes.

problem Learning DAGs with non-Gaussian noise and diverging number of nodes.
method Proposes a novel method using topological layers for bottom-up reconstruction and consistent parent-child relations.
result Topological layers can be exactly reconstructed and parent-child relations established without faithfulness assumption.

A new measure of causal influence quantifies intrinsic contributions in DAGs.

problem Quantifying intrinsic causal contributions in Directed Acyclic Graphs (DAGs).
method Recursive decomposition of node contributions, structure-preserving interventions, Shapley symmetrization.
result A measure of intrinsic causal contribution that is invariant to node relabeling.

New algorithm identifies causal effects in latent confounding models.

problem Identifying causal effects in linear non-Gaussian models with latent confounding.
method Recursive algorithm using rank conditions on higher-order cumulants.
result Algorithm achieves comparable performance to overcomplete ICA without knowing the number of latent variables.

Bayesian method recovers causal structure in SEMs with equal error variances.

problem Recovering causal structure in SEMs with equal error variances.
method Bayesian DAG selection method using g-priors and the key property of minimum expected squared errors.
result The method consistently recovers the true graph without additional distributional assumptions.

Local causal structure learning aims to discover and distinguish direct causes (parents) and direct effects (children) of a variable of interest from data. While emerging successes have been made, existing methods need to search a large space to distinguish direct causes from direct effects of a target variable \emph{T…

2019-10-03abs ↗pdf ↗

Modeling complex systems with multi-resolution data and causal dependencies.

problem Accurate prediction of complex systems with varying causal dependencies and multi-resolution data.
method Score-based Variational Graphical Diffusion Model (Temporal-SVGDM) that constructs individual SDEs for each variable at its native resolution and couples them through a causal score mechanism.
result Improved prediction accuracy and causal understanding compared to existing methods, especially in temporal scenarios.

Algorithm BGLM-OFU minimizes regret in combinatorial causal bandits with binary models.

problem Minimizing expected regret in combinatorial causal bandits with binary generalized linear models.
method BGLM-OFU algorithm based on maximum likelihood estimation for Markovian BGLMs, and causal inference techniques for linear models with hidden variables.
result Achieves O(TlogT)O(\sqrt{T}\log T) regret for binary generalized linear models.

New method uses information theory to uncover causal relationships in complex systems.

problem Discovering causal relationships in multivariate systems, especially in Bayesian networks and hypergraphs.
method Partial Information Decomposition (PID) to explicitly model higher-order interactions.
result PID components reveal direct causal neighbors and collider relationships in Bayesian networks and multi-tail hyperedges in causal hypergraphs.

This paper considers the computational power of constant size, dynamic Bayesian networks. Although discrete dynamic Bayesian networks are no more powerful than hidden Markov models, dynamic Bayesian networks with continuous random variables and discrete children of continuous parents are capable of performing Turing-co…

2016-03-19abs ↗pdf ↗

Method bounds continuous-valued treatment effects when confounding variables are hidden.

problem Inferring causal effects of continuous treatments when hidden confounders are present.
method Novel methodology to bound average and conditional average continuous-valued treatment effects.
result Method gives tighter coverage of true dose-response curve than existing methods.

New algorithms for efficient causal interventions with budget constraints and without constraints.

problem Efficiently learning best interventions in causal graphs with budget constraints.
method Developed algorithms for both budgeted and non-budgeted causal bandits, optimizing regret and side-information usage.
result Proposed algorithms minimize cumulative regret and perform better than standard methods.