New clustering method considers causal fairness to avoid bias.
problem Clustering algorithms can unintentionally propagate unfair disparities.
method Integrates causal fairness metrics into clustering algorithms.
result Demonstrates efficacy on datasets with known unfair biases.
We define transit clusters to simplify causal diagrams and preserve their essential properties.
problem Clustering variables in causal diagrams can alter essential properties of causal effects.
method We define transit clusters and provide an algorithm to find them, ensuring they preserve causal effect identifiability.
result Transit clusters simplify causal effect identification and maintain their essential properties.
Cluster-DAGs improve causal discovery with prior knowledge.
problem Finding cause-effect relationships from high-dimensional data.
method Cluster-DAGs as prior knowledge framework, modified constraint-based algorithms Cluster-PC and Cluster-FCI.
result Cluster-PC and Cluster-FCI outperform baselines without prior knowledge.
LILI clustering reduces bias in causal inference by grouping similar counterfactual outcomes.
problem Bias in causal inference from causal forest methods.
method LILI clustering algorithm integrates causal trees through leaf similarity.
result LILI clustering reduces bias and improves prediction accuracy for ATE.
A new method clusters heterogeneous subgroups for accurate causal learning.
problem Diverse causal relationships across different time spans, regions, or strategies.
method Nonlinear Causal Kernel Clustering
result Reduction in prediction error through enhanced causal learning.
Framework achieves fairness in predictions using partially known causal graph over clusters of variables.
problem Achieving fairness in algorithmic decisions when causal graph knowledge is limited.
method Leverages a causal graph over clusters of variables to train a prediction model, reducing interventional distribution discrepancies.
result Framework strikes a better balance between fairness and accuracy than existing approaches under limited causal graph knowledge.
Bayesian Supervised Causal Clustering identifies patient subgroups for personalized decision-making.
problem Finding patient subgroups with similar characteristics for personalized decision-making.
method Bayesian Supervised Causal Clustering (BSCC) that identifies homogenous subgroups based on treatment effects.
result BSCC identifies subgroups with similar covariate profiles and treatment effects.
Expands causal clustering framework with hierarchical and density-based methods.
problem Identifying heterogeneous treatment effects in unknown subgroup structure.
method Integrates hierarchical and density-based clustering algorithms into causal k-means clustering.
result Plug-in estimators for causal clustering are simple and readily implementable.
TS-K-means improves financial data clustering with dynamic time warping.
problem Inadequate handling of temporal dependencies in financial time series data.
method Integrates Dynamic Time Warping into Time Series K-means for financial data.
result TS-K-means outperforms traditional K-means in financial data analysis.
Proposes clustering and pruning to simplify causal data fusion models.
problem Combining observational and experimental data to identify causal effects.
method Generalizes pruning and clustering operations for multiple data sources.
result Derives conditions for inferring causal effects from simplified models.
Proposes Causal k-Means Clustering to identify subgroup effects.
problem Identifying subgroup effects with heterogeneous treatment effects.
method Leverages k-means clustering to uncover unknown subgroup structure.
result Developed bias-corrected estimator with fast root-n rates and asymptotic normality.
Cluster-DP improves differential privacy in randomized experiments by clustering data.
problem Reducing variance in causal effect estimation from differentially private data.
method Cluster-DP leverages a given cluster structure to improve the privacy-variance trade-off.
result Selecting higher-quality clusters decreases the variance penalty without compromising privacy guarantees.
Study efficient inference for network quantile causal effects with partial interference.
problem Estimating network causal effects on outcome quantiles with partial interference.
method Developed a nonparametric efficiency theory and a nonparametrically efficient estimator using a three-way cross-fitting procedure.
result Proposed estimator is consistent, asymptotically normal, and allows flexible estimation of nuisance functions.
Proposes a novel method to cluster individuals based on treatment effects.
problem Identifying subpopulations with different treatment responses.
method Clusters individuals using a learned kernel derived from causal forests, revealing latent subgroup structures.
result Captures meaningful treatment effect heterogeneity through kernelized clustering.
Proposes a new model for online anomaly detection in multivariate time series.
problem Inaccurate anomaly detection in multivariate time series due to spurious correlations and lack of temporal causality.
method Clusters channels based on correlations, embeds each cluster, and integrates information through a causal mixer while maintaining temporal causality.
result Consistently superior performance across six public benchmark datasets.
The paper develops methods for causal function estimation and inference with multiway clustered data.
problem Estimation and inference for causal functions under multiway clustering.
method Two-step procedure using machine learning for nuisance parameters and projection onto basis functions.
result Rejects the null hypothesis of uniformly zero effects and reveals heterogeneous treatment effects.
Unified framework for clustering and learning causal graphs across subjects.
problem Bias and obscured subpopulation-specific dependencies in multivariate systems.
method Directed Acyclic Graph-based Dependency Clustering via Alternating Direction Method of Multipliers (DAG-DC-ADMM) integrated with Structural Equation Modeling (SEM).
result Unified framework recovers cluster-specific causal dependency structures with high true positive rate and low false discovery rate.
The inference of the causal relationship between a pair of observed variables is a fundamental problem in science, and most existing approaches are based on one single causal model. In practice, however, observations are often collected from multiple sources with heterogeneous causal models due to certain uncontrollabl…
Kernel measures similarity of nonlinear causal structures in heterogeneous populations.
problem Learning causal structure in populations with diverse underlying structures.
method Distance covariance-based kernel for measuring similarity of causal structures.
result Kernel enables clustering of homogeneous subpopulations for causal structure learning.
New method identifies valid IVs for bi-directional MR with invalid instruments.
problem Estimating causal effects from observational data with invalid instruments and unmeasured confounding.
method Theoretical investigation and cluster fusion-like method to discover valid IV sets.
result Theoretical demonstration and experimental validation of the method's effectiveness.
BICauseTree improves causal effect estimation by identifying clusters and balancing treatment allocation.
problem Improving interpretability and transparency in causal effect models from observational data.
method Hierarchical bias-driven stratification using decision trees with a customized objective function.
result BICauseTree provides interpretable causal effect estimation and is comparable to existing methods.
Paper develops a method for causal representation learning from irregular tensors.
problem Complex patterns in high-dimensional, irregular tensor data.
method Novel causal formulation and CaRTeD framework integrating temporal causal representation learning with irregular tensor decomposition.
result Framework provides theoretical guarantees and outperforms state-of-the-art techniques.
We show that the climate phenomena of El Nino and La Nina arise naturally as states of macro-variables when our recent causal feature learning framework (Chalupka 2015, Chalupka 2016) is applied to micro-level measures of zonal wind (ZW) and sea surface temperatures (SST) taken over the equatorial band of the Pacific O…
New framework minimizes interference and selection bias in network A/B testing.
problem Interference and selection bias in network A/B testing.
method Proposes a principled framework that jointly minimizes interference and selection bias using edge spillover probability and cluster matching.
result Significantly lower error in causal effect estimation compared to existing solutions.
Q-learning with cSMART data assesses cAI tailoring variables.
problem Evaluating moderators in cAI construction.
method Clustered Q-learning with M-out-of-N Cluster Bootstrap.
result Constructs confidence intervals for causal effect moderation.
Predictive rate-distortion analysis suffers from the curse of dimensionality: clustering arbitrarily long pasts to retain information about arbitrarily long futures requires resources that typically grow exponentially with length. The challenge is compounded for infinite-order Markov processes, since conditioning on fi…
New methods for handling confounding in observational studies.
problem Handling confounding variables in observational studies.
method Generalized coarsened procedures for clustering confounding variables, followed by estimation of treatment effects and variance.
result Developed a general asymptotic framework for the average causal effect estimator and variance formulae.
Meta-causal states group equivalent qualitative causal dynamics, useful for analyzing system changes.
problem Qualitative changes in causal relationships due to agent actions or environmental tipping points.
method Propose meta-causal states to group causal models based on equivalent qualitative behavior and parameterize specific mechanisms.
result Meta-causal states can be inferred from observed agent behavior and disentangled from unlabeled data.
Crowded trades by similarly trading peers influence the dynamics of asset prices, possibly creating systemic risk. We propose a market clustering measure using granular trading data. For each stock the clustering measure captures the degree of trading overlap among any two investors in that stock. We investigate the ef…
Learning Granger causality for general point processes is a very challenging task. In this paper, we propose an effective method, learning Granger causality, for a special but significant type of point processes --- Hawkes process. We reveal the relationship between Hawkes process's impact function and its Granger caus…
New algorithms bound treatment effects with unmeasured confounding.
problem Estimating causal effects when confounding is unmeasured.
method Formulate causal effects as objective functions in optimization, using stochastic methods and Monte Carlo.
result Efficient algorithms for bounded treatment effects in complex settings.
This study proposes a framework for identifying profitable trading opportunities based on volatility and causal relationships.
problem Identifying profitable trading opportunities in financial markets.
method A combination of Gaussian Mixture Model (GMM), Granger Causality Test (GCT), Peter-Clark Momentary Conditional Independence (PCMCI) test, Dynamic Time Warping (DTW), and K-Nearest Neighbours (KNN) for identifying and executing trades.
result The proposed volatility-based trading strategy outperformed a Buy-and-Hold strategy, yielding a total return of 15.38%.
We propose a kernel method to identify finite mixtures of nonparametric product distributions. It is based on a Hilbert space embedding of the joint distribution. The rank of the constructed tensor is equal to the number of mixture components. We present an algorithm to recover the components by partitioning the data p…
This paper reviews causal inference methods for time series data.
problem Estimating treatment effects and identifying causal relations from time series data.
method Comprehensive review of approaches for treatment effect estimation and causal discovery.
result Provides a list of evaluation metrics and datasets for time series causal inference.
VolTS uses stats & ML to forecast stock market trends based on volatility.
problem Capturing profitable trading opportunities from market dynamics.
method Combines statistical analysis with machine learning; k-means++ clustering, Granger causality test.
result Effective at identifying profitable trading opportunities through volatility clusters and Granger causality.
Paper extends FOFC algorithm to work with mixed data types.
problem Designing causal discovery algorithms for mixed data types.
method Proves tetrad constraint can be entailed for mixed data types and applies FOFC algorithm.
result FOFC algorithm can work on mixed data types.
New method reduces errors in causal discovery from data.
problem Errors in causal discovery from limited data.
method Hierarchical wrapper for constraint-based algorithms.
result Significantly fewer tests, more accurate graphs, shorter run-times.
We consider distributions arising from a mixture of causal models, where each model is represented by a directed acyclic graph (DAG). We provide a graphical representation of such mixture distributions and prove that this representation encodes the conditional independence relations of the mixture distribution. We then…
New method learns DAG structure in clustered data, accounting for local variations.
problem Learning DAG structure in clustered data with varying effects.
method Extends mixed models to structure learning, using a differentiable graph coupling mechanism.
result Asymptotically recovers true structure, detecting dependencies missed by other methods.
Discovering causal relationships from data is the ultimate goal of many research areas. Constraint based causal exploration algorithms, such as PC, FCI, RFCI, PC-simple, IDA and Joint-IDA have achieved significant progress and have many applications. A common problem with these methods is the high computational complex…
CNMs detect tipping points in complex systems using causal network markers.
problem Identifying tipping points ahead of critical transitions in complex systems.
method Introducing CNMs that incorporate causality indicators to detect tipping points.
result CNMs show higher predictive power and accuracy than traditional DNB indicators.
New estimator improves off-policy evaluation for large action spaces.
problem Conventional importance-weighting approaches suffer from excessive variance in off-policy evaluation for large discrete action spaces.
method Proposes OffCEM estimator based on conjunct effect model (CEM), applying importance weighting only to action clusters and using model-based reward estimation for residual effects.
result Proposed estimator is unbiased under local correctness condition, providing substantial improvements in OPE especially with many actions.
We develop a method to summarize causal models with cycles in cubic time.
problem Cycles in high-dimensional causal models limit applicability of existing methods.
method We relax the acyclicity assumption in LiNG models and develop a low-dimensional DAG summary.
result Our method allows recovery of a low-dimensional DAG from high-dimensional data with cycles.
Paper introduces MN-DAG for modeling evolving causal relationships in multivariate time series.
problem Modeling causal relationships that evolve over time and occur at different scales.
method Probabilistic generative model based on spectral and causality theories, combined with Bayesian stochastic variational inference.
result MN-CASTLE outperforms baseline models in identifying causal relationships in multivariate time series data.
Energy game-theoretic frameworks have emerged to be a successful strategy to encourage energy efficient behavior in large scale by leveraging human-in-the-loop strategy. A number of such frameworks have been introduced over the years which formulate the energy saving process as a competitive game with appropriate incen…
In this paper, we propose a mixture of probabilistic partial canonical correlation analysis (MPPCCA) that extracts the Causal Patterns from two multivariate time series. Causal patterns refer to the signal patterns within interactions of two elements having multiple types of mutually causal relationships, rather than a…
Gradient Boosted Mixed Models estimate mean and variance components for clustered data.
problem Limited flexibility in linear mixed models for complex settings.
method Gradient Boosting extended to mixed models with likelihood-based gradients and flexible base learners.
result Accurate recovery of variance components and improved predictive accuracy.
New model analyzes customer churn with tensor completion and binary data.
problem Analyzing the impact of interventions on customer churn.
method Tensorized latent factor block hazard model with 1-bit tensor completion.
result Effective categorization of interventions by similar impacts.