Neural networks combining multiple data sources can reverse preferences, affecting decision reliability.
problem Preference reversals in neural networks under pooled data.
method Formalized through Case-Based Decision Theory, analyzed Gram geometry, introduced regularization, and developed auditing methods.
result Pooled refitting can reverse shared preferences, and conditions for preserving preferences are derived.
Study proposes a data-driven CBR system for improved bankruptcy prediction.
problem Lack of interpretability in machine learning models for bankruptcy prediction.
method Data-driven explainable case-based reasoning (CBR) system.
result Proposed CBR system outperforms existing CBR and machine learning models.
A cased-based reasoning method predicts rare events on strategic sites using satellite imagery.
problem Manual prediction of rare events on strategic sites is impractical due to large datasets.
method Case-based reasoning approach incorporating expert knowledge for irregular time series and small datasets.
result The method significantly outperforms random selection on challenging applications.
Novel financial time-series data representation improves industry sector classification.
problem Classifying industries using historical stock returns time-series data.
method Proposed a novel representation based on stock returns embeddings for time-series data, overcoming representational challenges of conventional approaches.
result Substantial performance improvements over baselines using conventional representations.
Paper develops a new similarity metric for predicting stock market returns.
problem Predicting stock returns is challenging due to market stochasticity and various influencing factors.
method Case-based reasoning approach using historical pricing data and a novel similarity metric.
result Demonstrates the benefits of the novel similarity metric in predicting stock market returns.
Introduction. Case Based Reasoning (CBR) is an emerg- ing decision making paradigm in medical research where new cases are solved relying on previously solved similar cases. Usually, a database of solved cases is provided, and every case is described through a set of attributes (inputs) and a label (output). Extracting…
New methods for explaining Random Forest predictions using case-based reasoning.
problem Lack of explainability for black-box machine learning models like Random Forests.
method Extracting distance metric from Random Forests to identify prototypes, critics, counter-factuals, and semi-factuals.
result Identified special points from training datasets to explain Random Forest predictions.
A CBR approach helps fraud analysts trust machine learning predictions.
problem Understanding the trustworthiness of machine learning predictions for fraud analysts.
method Case-based reasoning (CBR) approach to visualize similar previous instances and their local post-hoc explanations.
result Empirically, the visualization of similar previous instances is useful and easy to use for fraud analysts.
A new explainable CBR system predicts financial risks with interpretability and good performance.
problem Predicting financial risks with interpretability and good performance.
method A novel explainable case-based reasoning (CBR) approach.
result The CBR system provides a good prediction performance and interpretability.
Discretizes Hodge-Dirac operators on a torus.
problem Capturing geometric aspects of continuum Hodge theory in discrete settings.
method Discrete exterior calculus framework, Hodge-Dirac and Laplace operators.
result Proves discrete Hodge decomposition theorem on combinatorial torus.
CBNNs model survival with time-varying interactions, outperforming other methods.
problem Complex covariate effects and time-varying interactions in survival analysis.
method Combines case-base sampling with neural networks to model time-varying effects and complex baseline hazards.
result CBNNs outperform regression and neural network-based survival methods in simulations and real data applications.
We present the Bayesian Case Model (BCM), a general framework for Bayesian case-based reasoning (CBR) and prototype classification and clustering. BCM brings the intuitive power of CBR to a Bayesian generative framework. The BCM learns prototypes, the "quintessential" observations that best represent clusters in a data…
A CBR system investigates the TS-SS metric for document similarity.
problem Finding the most similar documents for user queries.
method Case-Based Reasoning (CBR) with TS-SS, Euclidean, and Cosine similarity measures.
result TS-SS metric shows surprising inappropriateness for high-dimensional features.
Survey on principles and challenges of interpretable machine learning.
problem Improving machine learning models' interpretability for high-stakes decisions.
method Identification and analysis of 10 technical challenges in interpretable machine learning.
result Identification of 10 technical challenges in interpretable machine learning.
ALPODS AI diagnoses high-dimensional biomedical data with human-understandable explanations.
problem AI decisions in high-dimensional biomedical data are not explainable to humans.
method ALPODS method classifies data based on clusters and generates fuzzy reasoning rules.
result ALPODS provides understandable explanations for AI diagnoses.
Unified framework for Bayes-optimal classifiers under group fairness.
problem Mitigating disparate impacts from algorithmic predictions in high-stakes decision-making.
method Unified framework based on Neyman-Pearson argument for deriving Bayes-optimal classifiers under group fairness constraints.
result Proposes FairBayes method that directly controls disparity and achieves optimal fairness-accuracy tradeoff.
For an affine two factor model, we study the asymptotic properties of the maximum likelihood and least squares estimators of some appearing parameters in the so-called subcritical (ergodic) case based on continuous time observations. We prove strong consistency and asymptotic normality of the estimators in question.
Paper introduces Native Guide for generating time series counterfactual explanations.
problem Lack of explainability for time series data in AI systems.
method Model-agnostic, instance-based counterfactual generation for time series classification.
result Native Guide produces better counterfactual explanations than benchmarks.
Study η-Einstein Sasakian structures on Lie algebras, dividing cases based on center dimension.
problem Investigate η-Einstein Sasakian structures on Lie algebras. method Divide cases based on center dimension, use theory of normal j-algebras and modifications of Hermitian Lie algebras to construct examples. result Construct new examples of η-Einstein Sasakian Lie algebras and solvmanifolds. Study LCP structures on solvmanifolds, complete list up to 5 dimensions.
problem Characterize LCP structures on solvable Lie groups.
method Classify LCP structures on Lie groups, focus on solvable unimodular case.
result Complete list of solvable unimodular Lie algebras up to dimension 5 with LCP structures.
Bayesian model predicts crack evolution on rails with uncertainties.
problem Predicting crack evolution on railways due to complex interactions and uncertainties.
method Robust Bayesian multi-horizon approach with constraints.
result Trade-off between prediction accuracy and constraint compliance.
Topological quantum computation with Fibonacci anyons relies on the possibility of efficiently generating unitary transformations upon pseudoparticles braiding. The crucial fact that such set of braids has a dense image in the unitary operations space is well known; in addition, the Solovay-Kitaev algorithm allows to a…
Study non-convex matrix factorization using Riemannian geometry.
problem Matrix completion via non-convex optimization.
method Optimization over a Grassmannian manifold, analyzing principal angles.
result Geodesically convex region in matrix completion cost function.
Paper defines a new invariant for surface immersions.
problem Detecting and classifying jumps in surface immersions.
method Defines an integer-valued function to classify jumps involving quadruple points and triple-line tangencies.
result Classifies quadruple point jumps into five geometrically distinct cases.
Study Heisenberg homology on surface configurations, revealing new representations of mapping class groups.
problem Homology of surface configurations with Heisenberg group representations.
method Analysis of unordered configurations in a surface, using Heisenberg group actions and representations.
result Obtained genuine and projective representations of mapping class groups from Heisenberg group actions.
Machine learning basics: key principles and limitations.
problem Understanding machine learning principles and their limitations.
method Analysis of machine learning families, performance comparison, and model interpretation.
result Interpretable models are often sufficient and deep learning doesn't always outperform others.
The influence of additional information on the decision making of agents, who are interacting members of a society, is analyzed within the mathematical framework based on the use of quantum probabilities. The introduction of social interactions, which influence the decisions of individual agents, leads to a generalizat…
Safe autonomous decisions made with machine learning predictions using Conformal Decision Theory.
problem Safe decisions from imperfect machine learning predictions.
method Conformal Decision Theory framework for producing safe decisions.
result Safe decisions with provable statistical guarantees of low risk.
The paper analyzes frameworks for integrating sustainability into investment decisions.
problem Understanding how ESG factors influence investment choices.
method Examined and analyzed various theoretical frameworks including Behavioral Finance, Modern Portfolio, and Risk Management.
result Investors increasingly integrate ESG factors to optimize financial outcomes and societal goals.
In this paper the theory of semi-bounded rationality is proposed as an extension of the theory of bounded rationality. In particular, it is proposed that a decision making process involves two components and these are the correlation machine, which estimates missing values, and the causal machine, which relates the cau…
Develops scenario theory for multi-criteria decision making.
problem Need for robustness assessment with multiple criteria and datasets.
method Collectively treats risks associated with individual criteria for multi-criteria decision problems.
result More accurate robustness certificates and sharper quantification of simultaneous criterion satisfaction.
Empirical model tackles decision problems without specifying states of the world.
problem Decision problems under uncertainty with inaccessible states of the world.
method Empirical approach using observed act--consequence pairs as model primitives.
result Optimality in empirical decision problems addressed using protocol-based empirical choice functions.
In this fact sheet we give some preliminary research results on the Bayesian Decision Theory. This theory has been under construction for the past two years. But what started as an intuitive enough idea, now seems to have the makings of something more fundamental.
In Statistical Learning, the Vapnik-Chervonenkis (VC) dimension is an important combinatorial property of classifiers. To our knowledge, no theoretical results yet exist for the VC dimension of edited nearest-neighbour (1NN) classifiers with reference set of fixed size. Related theoretical results are scattered in the …
Paper presents a Bayesian-decision-theory framework for long-tailed classification.
problem Heavy imbalance and asymmetric misprediction costs in long-tailed datasets.
method Bayesian-decision-theory perspective, unifying re-balancing and ensemble methods.
result Improves accuracy for all classes, especially tails, with provably optimal decisions.
Paper uses stats to predict treatment choice based on illness probability.
problem Improving treatment decision-making in personalized medicine.
method Statistical decision theory with maximum regret evaluation.
result Estimates illness probability for better treatment choice.
The article presents a translation of some widespread financial terminology into the language of decision theory. For instance, financial leverage can be regarded as an object of choice or a decision. We show how the optics of decision theory allows perceiving the recently introduced metrics of see-through-leverage, wh…
The purpose of this article is to propose a new "theory," the Strategic Analysis of Financial Markets (SAFM) theory, that explains the operation of financial markets using the analytical perspective of an enlightened gambler. The gambler understands that all opportunities for superior performance arise from suboptimal …
Paper offers a fast convergence theory for offline decision making.
problem Offline decision making problems, including reinforcement learning and off-policy evaluation.
method Introduces a framework (DMOF) and algorithm (EDD) with a fast convergence guarantee.
result Demonstrates a fast convergence guarantee with a lower bound complement.
New theory extends rank-dependent utility for risk and ambiguity.
problem Modeling decision-making under risk and ambiguity.
method Axiomatizes a new preference relation with ambiguity index, probability weighting, and utility function.
result Extends rank-dependent utility to risk and ambiguity, reducing to existing models under specific conditions.
Paper identifies a shared toolkit of strategies for risk management across fields.
problem Uncertainty and risk management in various fields.
method Systematic identification and categorization of 110 strategies.
result RDOT: Risk-reducing Design and Operations Toolkit provides versatile responses to uncertainty.
New algorithm tracks COVID-19 outbreak phases.
problem Decision-making in pandemic data.
method Developed a new algorithm (BLLR) based on decision theory.
result Demonstrated ability to track different phases of the COVID-19 outbreak.
New concept of partial law invariance connects decision theory and financial risk management.
problem Connecting decision theory and financial risk management under uncertainty.
method Characterizing partially law-invariant coherent risk measures via a novel representation formula.
result Strong partial law invariance bridges the gap between existing risk measure representations.
In stochastic decision problems, one often wants to estimate the underlying probability measure statistically, and then to use this estimate as a basis for decisions. We shall consider how the uncertainty in this estimation can be explicitly and consistently incorporated in the valuation of decisions, using the theory …
We investigate how the choice of decision makers can be varied under the presence of risk and uncertainty. Our analysis is based on the approach we have previously applied to individual decision makers, which we now generalize to the case of decision makers that are members of a society. The approach employs the mathem…
Study develops a cost model for field canals improvement projects in Egypt.
problem Accurately predict the preliminary costs of field canals improvement projects.
method Developed a parametric cost model using machine learning methods.
result Identified key cost drivers and developed a model for FCIPs.
In this article, we address the question of how non-knowledge about future events that influence economic agents' decisions in choice settings has been formally represented in economic theory up to date. To position our discussion within the ongoing debate on uncertainty, we provide a brief review of historical develop…
Proposes a deep hedging method for robust pricing and hedging under parameter uncertainty.
problem Pricing and hedging under parameter uncertainty for generalized affine processes.
method Deep learning approach linked to variational form of Kolmogorov equation.
result Robust deep hedging outperforms existing methods in volatile periods.