In this fact sheet we give some preliminary research results on the Bayesian Decision Theory. This theory has been under construction for the past two years. But what started as an intuitive enough idea, now seems to have the makings of something more fundamental.
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20 results for “Bayesian-decision-theory”
Paper presents a Bayesian-decision-theory framework for long-tailed classification.
problem Heavy imbalance and asymmetric misprediction costs in long-tailed datasets.
method Bayesian-decision-theory perspective, unifying re-balancing and ensemble methods.
result Improves accuracy for all classes, especially tails, with provably optimal decisions.
Active inference minimizes expected free energy for optimal behavior.
problem Understanding and optimizing behavior in complex systems.
method Combines Bayesian decision theory, optimal Bayesian design, and the free energy principle.
result Active inference emerges as a unified framework for information-seeking, utility maximization, and goal-directed behavior.
A new method improves active learning for large batch sizes.
problem Challenges in scaling Bayesian active learning to large batch sizes.
method Derives Partial Batch Label Sampling (ParBaLS) for EPIG algorithm.
result ParBaLS EPIG outperforms top- selection and BatchBALD.
This work tackles uncertainty quantification in language models, proposing a principled approach.
problem Challenges in identifying task-specific uncertainties in large language models.
method Bayesian decision theory, focusing on a similarity measure between generated and hypothetical true responses.
result Derives a measure for epistemic uncertainty based on a missing data perspective.
Maximum Entropy competes with Maximum Likelihoodphysics.data-an
MAXENT method outperforms ML in sparse data with specific prior correlations.
problem Evaluating MAXENT method's validity limits and comparing it with ML.
method Bayesian decision theory, Dirichlet density, KL distance, regularized maximum likelihood.
result MAXENT can outperform ML in sparse data with specific prior correlations.
Paper proposes fitting loss functions to data using source functions from information geometry.
problem Choosing appropriate loss functions for machine learning models.
method Introduces source functions from information geometry to fit loss functions to the domain at hand.
result Significant improvements over state-of-the-art methods in model training.
This paper solves the open problem of computing Bayes optimal prediction for decision trees using a Markov chain Monte Carlo method.
problem Computing the Bayes optimal prediction for decision trees is infeasible due to an infeasible summation over all division patterns of a feature space.
method Solved the open problem using a Markov chain Monte Carlo method with adaptively tuned step size.
result Computed the Bayes optimal prediction for decision trees using a Markov chain Monte Carlo method.
Bayesian principles improve agentic AI decision-making.
problem Decision-making under uncertainty in agentic AI systems.
method Bayesian decision theory applied to the orchestration layer of agentic AI.
result Bayesian principles enhance agentic AI's ability to make decisions under uncertainty.
Novel framework for reliable long-tailed classification.
problem Challenges of long-tailed imbalance and specific error risks.
method Bayesian Decision Theory and variational optimization.
result Demonstrates reliability and flexibility in diverse tasks.
Bayesian model improves categorization of explosions from sparse data.
problem Challenges in categorizing explosions from limited data.
method Bayesian update to Event Categorization Matrix model with Bayesian Decision Theory.
result Consistent gains in overall accuracy and lower false negative rates.
Bayesian decision theory outlines a rigorous framework for making optimal decisions based on maximizing expected utility over a model posterior. However, practitioners often do not have access to the full posterior and resort to approximate inference strategies. In such cases, taking the eventual decision-making task i…
The paper corrects Bayesian neural network approximations to improve decision quality.
problem Inaccurate posterior approximations in Bayesian neural networks lead to suboptimal decisions.
method Develops methods to calibrate approximate posterior predictive distributions for better decision making.
result Empirically produces higher quality decisions compared to previous methods.
Continuous-time event sequences represent discrete events occurring in continuous time. Such sequences arise frequently in real-life. Usually we expect the sequences to follow some regular pattern over time. However, sometimes these patterns may be interrupted by unexpected absence or occurrences of events. Identificat…
We consider two active binary-classification problems with atypical objectives. In the first, active search, our goal is to actively uncover as many members of a given class as possible. In the second, active surveying, our goal is to actively query points to ultimately predict the proportion of a given class. Numerous…
Current approaches in approximate inference for Bayesian neural networks minimise the Kullback-Leibler divergence to approximate the true posterior over the weights. However, this approximation is without knowledge of the final application, and therefore cannot guarantee optimal predictions for a given task. To make mo…
Bayesian framework optimizes 3D view selection for specific tasks.
problem Optimizing 3D view selection for specific tasks in reconstruction.
method Bayesian decision theory, prior and posterior distributions, stochastic surface reconstruction.
result Framework achieves superior performance with fewer views.
Bayesian framework robustifies classifiers against malicious attacks.
problem Adversarial attacks on classification algorithms in security and business.
method Adversarial risk analysis and approximate Bayesian computation.
result Robustifies statistical classification algorithms against attacks.
Softmax Q-Distribution Estimation for Structured Prediction: A Theoretical Interpretation for RAMLcs.LG
Reward augmented maximum likelihood (RAML), a simple and effective learning framework to directly optimize towards the reward function in structured prediction tasks, has led to a number of impressive empirical successes. RAML incorporates task-specific reward by performing maximum-likelihood updates on candidate outpu…
New approach avoids meta-amortization error in few-shot learning.
problem Task ambiguity in few-shot learning makes learning new tasks difficult.
method Cyclical annealing schedule and maximum mean discrepancy criterion.
result Substantially outperforms standard meta-learning algorithms.