Model infers diffusion networks from heterogeneous cascade data.
problem Understanding and predicting diffusion processes in interconnected populations.
method Double mixture directed graph model with layer-specific constraints.
result Convex formulation allows for statistical and computational guarantees.
The paper improves theoretical guarantees for Thompson Sampling in cascading bandits.
problem Optimizing online recommender systems with cascading bandits.
method Develops and analyzes new Thompson Sampling algorithms for cascading bandits.
result Establishes the first theoretical guarantees on Thompson Sampling for cascading bandits.
Method predicts diffusion reach probabilities using node embeddings.
problem Estimating diffusion reach probabilities with limited cascades and network information.
method Representation learning on node embeddings for cascade prediction.
result Proposed method outperforms using available cascade data.
A search engine usually outputs a list of K web pages. The user examines this list, from the first web page to the last, and chooses the first attractive page. This model of user behavior is known as the cascade model. In this paper, we propose cascading bandits, a learning variant of the cascade model where the obje…
Structured prediction tasks pose a fundamental trade-off between the need for model complexity to increase predictive power and the limited computational resources for inference in the exponentially-sized output spaces such models require. We formulate and develop the Structured Prediction Cascade architecture: a seque…
Modeling cascading behavior in complex systems using CTBNs.
problem Understanding which states trigger cascading events in complex systems.
method Continuous-time Bayesian networks (CTBNs) for modeling and identifying likely sentry states.
result Identification of likely sentry states that may lead to cascading behavior.
Study on information cascade fragility under mismatched revealing probabilities.
problem Analyzing the fragility of information cascades in decision-making processes with imperfect knowledge of revealing probabilities.
method Examined sequential decision-making models with players having private information and imitating previous decisions. Studied the effect of a mismatch between players' beliefs and actual revealing probabilities.
result Derived closed-form expressions for optimal learning rates and identified phase transitions in the behavior of asymptotic learning rates.
Model shows financial turbulence similar to turbulence, with wealth cascading from large to small entities.
problem Understanding wealth distribution and dynamics in financial systems.
method Constructed a multiscale model for hierarchical financial structures.
result Found wealth distribution exhibits power law at large scales and Maxwellian at small scales.
On many social networking web sites such as Facebook and Twitter, resharing or reposting functionality allows users to share others' content with their own friends or followers. As content is reshared from user to user, large cascades of reshares can form. While a growing body of research has focused on analyzing and c…
Modeling social network activity through user and topic interaction.
problem Understanding complex dynamics of opinion formation in social networks.
method Mixture of Interacting Cascades (MIC) model of marked multidimensional Hawkes processes.
result MIC achieves superior performance in modeling information cascade spread.
Improves information cascade models using contrastive training and DSTs.
problem Improving models of information cascades using limited labeled data.
method Proposes a contrastive training procedure for models of information cascades as directed spanning trees (DSTs).
result Unsupervised training with additional content features achieves significantly better results, reaching half the accuracy of a fully supervised model.
New research reveals diverse cascade sizes in finite networks, challenging traditional risk assessments.
problem Predicting the size of cascades in finite networks is difficult due to uncertain parameters and missing information.
method Derived explicit closed-form solutions for cascade size distributions in complete and star networks.
result Broad and even bimodal cascade size distributions in finite networks, not centered around the average.
Paper presents a probabilistic model to improve LLM cascade performance.
problem Complexity of LLM cascades and their interaction error rates.
method Probabilistic model for joint performance distribution of LLMs.
result Improves area under the error-cost curve by 4.3% on average for cascades with k≥3 models.
Model explains financial market intermittency with negative correlation.
problem Verifying multifractality in financial markets.
method Extended multiplicative random cascade model with an additional stochastic term.
result Model accurately reproduces empirical financial data.
Unified approach for influence maximization using diffusion cascade representations.
problem Influence maximization on networks with diffusion cascades.
method Multi-task neural network learning influencer and susceptible vectors; greedy algorithm for influence maximization.
result IMINFECTOR outperforms other methods in efficiency and seed set quality.
A model infers dynamic networks from partial observation of cascading processes.
problem Inferring evolving networks from partial observation of node and edge data.
method A novel framework based on a mixture of coupled hierarchical Dirichlet processes.
result Explicit predictive distribution over edges of the underlying network, including future edges.
I show the equivalence between a model of financial contagion and the threshold model of global cascades proposed by Watts (2002). The model financial network comprises banks that hold risky external assets as well as interbank assets. It is shown that a simple threshold model can replicate the size and the frequency o…
This paper optimizes power grid protection settings to maximize network degradation due to cascading attacks.
problem Cascading attacks on power grids and their undetected nature.
method Constrained Bayesian Optimization applied to transmission line protection settings.
result Even limited misconfiguration of protection settings can cause severe cascading attacks.
New insights into cascade feedback linearization of control systems.
problem Obtaining a cascade feedback linearization for invariant control systems.
method Introducing truncated versions of operators from the calculus of variations to prove new theorems.
result Established new geometry and foundational theorems for future work.
Model financial default cascades on sparse graphs via hitting times.
problem Capturing systemic risk in large, sparsely-connected financial networks.
method Dynamic particle systems with hitting times and convergence theory.
result Characterization of default time distribution in tree-like networks.
A new framework approximates covariance matrices using tree decompositions.
problem Approximating covariance matrices for Gaussian distributions.
method Cascade of tree decompositions with Cholesky factorization.
result The proposed framework guarantees convergence and outperforms KL divergence.
Cascades of information-sharing are a primary mechanism by which content reaches its audience on social media, and an active line of research has studied how such cascades, which form as content is reshared from person to person, develop and subside. In this paper, we perform a large-scale analysis of cascades on Faceb…
This work proposes an efficient autoregressive model for text generation.
problem The challenge of generating high-quality text with autoregressive models.
method Introduces a cascaded decoding approach using Markov transformers to achieve sub-linear parallel time generation.
result Shows competitive accuracy/speed tradeoff compared to existing methods on five machine translation datasets.
Develops a novel framework for activity shaping in social networks.
problem Controlling user activity spread in social networks.
method Optimizes the spectral radius of the Hazard matrix for local control actions.
result Minimizes the influence of information cascades through targeted resource allocation.
Information spreads across social and technological networks, but often the network structures are hidden from us and we only observe the traces left by the diffusion processes, called cascades. Can we recover the hidden network structures from these observed cascades? What kind of cascades and how many cascades do we …
Paper develops a neural model to assess cascading extreme events.
problem Risk assessment of domino effects like earthquakes and tsunamis.
method Develops a Kolmogorov-Arnold neural network (KANE) framework.
result Estimates the probability of one extreme event triggering another.
We consider the problem of finding the graph on which an epidemic cascade spreads, given only the times when each node gets infected. While this is a problem of importance in several contexts -- offline and online social networks, e-commerce, epidemiology, vulnerabilities in infrastructure networks -- there has been ve…
In the Network Inference problem, one seeks to recover the edges of an unknown graph from the observations of cascades propagating over this graph. In this paper, we approach this problem from the sparse recovery perspective. We introduce a general model of cascades, including the voter model and the independent cascad…
Study online ranking in non-stationary environments with abrupt preference changes.
problem Online learning to rank in a non-stationary cascade model where user preferences change abruptly.
method Cascading non-stationary bandits, proposing CascadeDUCB and CascadeSWUCB algorithms.
result Upper and lower bounds on regret for cascading non-stationary bandits algorithms.
Algorithm estimates clock in network cascades to improve performance.
problem Temporal distortion in cascade observation leads to performance degradation.
method Formulated clock estimation problem, developed FastClock algorithm.
result FastClock algorithm outperforms state-of-the-art in terms of accuracy and speed.
Estimates latent topic structure from information diffusion events.
problem Estimating latent structure of social networks from cascade data.
method Proposes a node-topic model with influence and receptivity vectors.
result Consistent estimator of latent topic structure from cascades.
We study simultaneous price drops of real stocks and show that for high drop thresholds they follow a power-law distribution. To reproduce these collective downturns, we propose a minimal self-organized model of cascade spreading based on a probabilistic response of the system elements to stress conditions. This model …
Study on stochastic volatility models with external shocks triggering jump cascades.
problem Analyzing the impact of external shocks on jump dynamics in stochastic volatility models.
method Establishing scaling limits for a class of stochastic volatility models with self-exciting jump dynamics.
result External shocks can trigger endogenous jump cascades in asset returns and volatility.
A time series model for the FX dynamics is presented which takes into account structural peculiarities of the market, namely its heterogeneity and an information flow from long to short time horizons. The model emerges from an analogy between FX dynamics and hydrodynamic turbulence. The heterogeneity of the market is m…
Modeling supply chain disruptions from climate hazards with adaptive firms.
problem Systemic physical climate risk in supply chains.
method Agent-based model integrating geospatial hazards and firm adaptation.
result Firms' adaptive strategies reduce disruption by 48%.
We introduce a probabilistic framework that represents stylized banking networks with the aim of predicting the size of contagion events. Most previous work on random financial networks assumes independent connections between banks, whereas our framework explicitly allows for (dis)assortative edge probabilities (e.g., …
Paper uses RL to mitigate cascading failures in power systems.
problem Mitigating multi-stage cascading failures in power grids.
method Reinforcement Learning applied to DC-OPF for power flow optimization.
result Reduced system collapse rates through RL-based optimization.
Cascading flows improve variational inference in structured programs.
problem Challenges in variational inference for complex probabilistic programs.
method Integrates normalizing flows and ASVI to create cascading flows, which embed the forward-pass of probabilistic programs.
result Cascading flows outperform normalizing flows and ASVI in structured inference problems.
Method certifies edge predictions with cloud-level reliability.
problem Ensuring reliability of edge intelligence models.
method Conformal alignment-based cascading mechanism.
result Certifies conditional coverage with user control over risk level.
Bayesian optimization tackles expensive cascade processes.
problem Optimizing multistage decision-making processes with expensive costs.
method Formulated as Bayesian optimization framework with two types of acquisition functions.
result Demonstrated effectiveness through numerical experiments and a solar cell simulator application.
A method to reduce computation by dynamically sacrificing accuracy in deep neural networks.
problem Balancing computational effort and classification accuracy in deep neural networks.
method A cascade of deep neural networks with dynamically set confidence thresholds based on softmax outputs.
result Reduces 15%-50% in MAC operations with a 1% accuracy degradation.
We analyze cascades of defaults in an interbank loan market. The novel feature of this study is that the network structure and the size distribution of banks are derived from empirical data. We find that the ability of a defaulted institution to start a cascade depends on an interplay of shock size and connectivity. Fu…
Model predicts stock price volatility using stochastic differential equations.
problem Predicting stock price volatility in financial markets.
method Continuous cascade model using stochastic differential equations with two independent Brownian motions.
result The model accurately reproduces empirical volatility and multifractality.
Model examines how margin trading affects stock market stability.
problem Margin trading's impact on stock market stability.
method Cascading failure model based on bipartite graph of investors and shares.
result Margin trading increases share price vulnerability to external shocks.
The paper addresses the k-tangle enumeration problem. We introduce a notion of cascade diagram for k-tangle projections. An effective enumeration algorithm for projections is proposed based on cascade representation. Tangles projections with up to 12 crossings are tabulated. We provide also pictures of alternating …
Efficient algorithm learns Independent Cascade model from partial network observations.
problem Learning accurate spreading models from limited network data.
method Scalable dynamic message-passing approach for parameter learning.
result Improved prediction of marginal probabilities compared to original model.
The paper examines clearing payments in financial networks to prevent cascaded defaults.
problem Cascaded defaults in financial networks under the proportionality rule.
method Analysis of clearing model under pro-rated payments, derivation of necessary and sufficient conditions for clearing payments, convex optimization problems for computation.
result Clearing payments can be computed by solving convex optimization problems, reducing overall system loss by lifting the proportionality rule.
Most recommender systems recommend a list of items. The user examines the list, from the first item to the last, and often chooses the first attractive item and does not examine the rest. This type of user behavior can be modeled by the cascade model. In this work, we study cascading bandits, an online learning variant…