A locally-built, LLM-digested index of recent arXiv papers in quant finance, geometry/topology, and statistical ML — keyword search served straight from SQLite on this machine.
ChatGPT scores corporate investment plans, predicting future spending and returns.
Study assesses health plan risk measures for Solvency Capital Requirement.
Most papers which explored so far macroeconomic variables took into account income and wealth. Equally important as the previous macroeconomic variables is the expenditure or consumption, which shows the amount of goods and services that a person or a household purchased. Using statistical distributions from Physics, s…
We empirically investigate distributions of individual consumption expenditure f or four commodity categories conditional on fixed income levels. The data stems from the Family Expenditure Survey carried out annually in the United Kingdom. W e use graphical techniques to test for normality and lognormality of these dis…
The paper analyzes the pricing of a new compute futures asset.
A statistical description and model of individual healthcare expenditures in the US has been developed for measuring value in healthcare. We find evidence that healthcare expenditures are quantifiable as an infusion-diffusion process, which can be thought of intuitively as a steady change in the intensity of treatment …
Early diagnosis is important for type 2 diabetes (T2D) to improve patient prognosis, prevent complications and reduce long-term treatment costs. We present a novel risk profiling approach based exclusively on health expenditure data that is available to Belgian mutual health insurers. We used expenditure data related t…
We introduce a new approach to incorporate uncertainty into the decision to invest in a commodity reserve. The investment is an irreversible one-off capital expenditure, after which the investor receives a stream of cashflow from extracting the commodity and selling it on the spot market. The investor is exposed to pri…
This work presents an empirical study of the evolution of the consumer expenditure distribution in India during 1982-2007. We have used the National Sample Survey Organization data and analysed the expenditure distribution for the urban and rural sectors. It is found that this distribution is a mixture of two distribut…
Study decomposes racial healthcare disparities via shifts in mediator distributions.
Super learner with Huber loss improves cost prediction and causal effect estimation in healthcare expenditure data.
Optimizes profit in targeted marketing across multiple markets with varying marketing expenditures.
In the present paper, we identify several distributions from Physics and study their applicability to phenomena such as distribution of income, wealth, and expenditure. Firstly, we apply logistic distribution to these data and we find that it fits very well the annual data for the entire income interval including for u…
We detect lookahead bias in LLM forecasts using a novel statistical method.
For enabling automatic deployment and management of cellular networks, the concept of self-organizing network (SON) was introduced. SON capabilities can enhance network performance, improve service quality, and reduce operational and capital expenditure (OPEX/CAPEX). As an important component in SON, self-healing is de…
We propose a robust implementation of the Nerlove--Arrow model using a Bayesian structural time series model to explain the relationship between advertising expenditures of a country-wide fast-food franchise network with its weekly sales. Thanks to the flexibility and modularity of the model, it is well suited to gener…
Paper evaluates whether AI is a bubble or a productivity revolution.
Polynomial distribution can be applied to dynamical systems in certain situations. Macroeconomic systems characterized by economic variables such as income and wealth can be modelled similarly using polynomials. We extend our previous work to data regarding income from a more diversified pool of countries, which contai…
Deep learning models accurately recognize and estimate physical activity types and energy expenditure from wrist accelerometer data.
Over the years, several studies have demonstrated that there exist significant disparities in health indicators in the United States population across various groups. Healthcare expense is used as a proxy for health in algorithms that drive healthcare systems and this exacerbates the existing bias. In this work, we foc…
We analyze expenditure patterns of discretionary funds by Brazilian congress members. This analysis is based on a large dataset containing over million expenses made publicly available by the Brazilian government. This dataset has, up to now, remained widely untouched by machine learning methods. Our main contribut…
We approximate the distribution of total expenditure of a retail company over warranty claims incurred in a fixed period [0, T], say the following quarter. We consider two kinds of warranty policies, namely, the non-renewing free replacement warranty policy and the non-renewing pro-rata warranty policy. Our approximati…
The assessment of energy expenditure in real life is of great importance for monitoring the current physical state of people, especially in work, sport, elderly care, health care, and everyday life even. This work reports about application of some machine learning methods (linear regression, linear discriminant analysi…
Method detects multi-timescale consumer spending patterns from receipts.
Different shares of distinct commodity sectors in production, trade, and consumption illustrate how resources and capital are allocated and invested. Economic progress has been claimed to change the share distribution in a universal manner as exemplified by the Engel's law for the household expenditure and the shift fr…
Birth rates have dramatically decreased and, with continuous improvements in life expectancy, pension expenditure is on an irreversibly increasing path. This will raise serious concerns for the sustainability of the public pension systems usually financed on a pay-as-you-go (PAYG) basis where current contributions cove…
We extend the exploration regarding dynamical approach of macroeconomic variables by tackling systematically expenditure using Statistical Physics models (for the first time to the best of our knowledge). Also, using polynomial distribution which characterizes the behavior of dynamical systems in certain situations, we…
Income redistribution is the transfer of income from some individuals to others directly or indirectly by means of social mechanisms, such as taxation, public services and so on. Employing a spatial public goods game, we study the influence of income redistribution on the evolution of cooperation. Two kinds of evolutio…
Mobile network that millions of people use every day is one of the most complex systems in the world. Optimization of mobile network to meet exploding customer demand and reduce capital/operation expenditures poses great challenges. Despite recent progress, application of deep reinforcement learning (DRL) to complex re…
The global financial crisis, beginning in 2008, took an historic toll on national economies around the world. Following equity market crashes, unemployment rates rose significantly in many countries: Italy was among those. What will be the impact of such large shocks on Italian healthcare finances? An empirical model f…
The cluster analysis methods are used in order to perform a comparative study of 15 EU countries in relation with the fluctuations of some basic macroeconomic indicators. The statistical distances between countries are calculated for various moving time windows, and the time variation of the mean statistical distance i…
The paper explores capital allocation using Euler formula with VaR and ES, revealing non-monotonicity and providing estimation methods.
Study finds stock prices rarely appreciate during capital inflows but often appreciate during normal flows.
LHIEM model predicts health, income, and employment over years.
CTS machines improve screen development in printing industries, reducing costs and increasing profitability.
In this paper we see the evolution of a capitalized financial event e, with respect to a capitalization factor f, as the exponential map of a suitably defined Lie group G(f,e), supported by the half-space of capitalized financial events having the same capital sign of e. The Lie group G(f,e) depends upon the capitaliza…
The paper models financial markets and real economy interactions using a large agent framework.
Statistical fields model explains capital allocation and accumulation among firms and investors.
Alternative model predicts health insurance reimbursement based on contract limitations.
This study examines how risky investments affect insurance capital valuation.
OpenAlpha validates decentralized capital strategies using game theory and market aggregation.
Credit (CVA), Debit (DVA) and Funding Valuation Adjustments (FVA) are now familiar valuation adjustments made to the value of a portfolio of derivatives to account for credit risks and funding costs. However, recent changes in the regulatory regime and the increases in regulatory capital requirements has led many banks…
The paper analyzes optimal dividend and capital injection strategies under time-inconsistent preferences.
Study systemic risk measures and capital allocation rules, showing commonalities.
Study analyzes household capital risk and poverty trapping, deriving a new function for capital deficit distribution.
This paper presents a model of capital accumulation for a large number of heterogenous producer-consumers in an exchange space in which interactions depend on agents' positions. Each agent is described by his production, consumption, stock of capital, as well as the position he occupies in this abstract space. Each age…
New method allocates capital based on tail central moments for financial risk assessment.
A dynamical model of capital exchange is introduced in which a specified amount of capital is exchanged between two individuals when they meet. The resulting time dependent wealth distributions are determined for a variety of exchange rules. For ``greedy'' exchange, an interaction between a rich and a poor individual r…