Paper compares ETF and futures carry rates in segmented Bitcoin markets.
problem Limitations in cross-margining between spot Bitcoin and CME futures.
method Estimates carry rates from IBIT options and CME futures, uses put-call parity and daily ETF holdings.
result Mean and median wedge in carry rates is 2.58 and 2.52 percent, respectively.
Regulated Bitcoin futures led to higher volatility and trading volume.
problem Estimating the impact of regulated Bitcoin futures on volatility and volume.
method Employed a new causal approach, C-ARIMA.
result Regulated Bitcoin futures increased Bitcoin volatility by more than double.
Neural-Kernel CME tackles scalability and expressiveness challenges in conditional distribution representation.
problem Scalability and expressiveness challenges in kernel conditional mean embeddings.
method Combines deep learning with CMEs using a neural network optimization framework.
result Achieves competitive and often superior performance in conditional density estimation and RL.
Conditional mean embeddings (CMEs) have proven themselves to be a powerful tool in many machine learning applications. They allow the efficient conditioning of probability distributions within the corresponding reproducing kernel Hilbert spaces (RKHSs) by providing a linear-algebraic relation for the kernel mean embedd…
Study fills and adverse selection effects on trading strategy simulation.
problem Effects of fill probabilities and adverse fills on trading strategy simulation.
method Stochastic optimal control market-making problem, empirical evidence on liquid futures contracts.
result Fill probabilities and adverse fills significantly affect trading strategy performance.
This paper surveys options pricing under arithmetic Brownian motion and derives formulas for various types of options.
problem The use of arithmetic Brownian motion in finance is not widely adopted.
method Risk-neutral valuation and derivation of formulas for European options under three types of underlying assets.
result Derivation of formulas for European options and partial differential equations for American options.
Study optimizes learning rates for conditional mean embedding estimates.
problem Consistency of kernel ridge regression for conditional mean embedding.
method Adaptive statistical learning rate derived for misspecified setting.
result Upper bound matches optimal O(logn/n) rates without assuming finite dimensionality. Multi-instance data, in which each object (bag) contains a collection of instances, are widespread in machine learning, computer vision, bioinformatics, signal processing, and social sciences. We present a maximum entropy (ME) framework for learning from multi-instance data. In this approach each bag is represented as …
AI models outperform simple rules in cross-asset futures timing, especially with lower transaction costs.
problem Optimizing cross-asset portfolio weights using traditional forecasting and optimization methods.
method End-to-end AI policies that map market states directly to portfolio weights, trained on CME futures using a differentiable Sharpe ratio loss function.
result Transformer-based AI policies outperform simple rules and equal weighting, trading less and matching or exceeding equal weighting through moderate transaction costs.
The study constructs models for SOFR term rates using futures data.
problem Disruption of the LIBOR market and lack of liquid SOFR derivatives.
method Dynamic arbitrage-free models using historical SOFR futures prices.
result Shadow-rate extension needed for zero-boundary term rates.
Counterfactual inference has become a ubiquitous tool in online advertisement, recommendation systems, medical diagnosis, and econometrics. Accurate modeling of outcome distributions associated with different interventions -- known as counterfactual distributions -- is crucial for the success of these applications. In …
Time and Sales of corn futures traded electronically on the CME Group Globex are studied. Theories of continuous prices turn upside down reality of intra-day trading. Prices and their increments are discrete and obey lattice probability distributions. A function for systematic evolution of futures trading volume is pro…
We offer a new, rigorous approach to conditional mean embeddings without operator constraints.
problem Lack of rigorous, operator-free approach to conditional mean embeddings.
method Measure-theoretic approach to conditional mean embeddings.
result Natural regression interpretation and universal consistency of empirical estimates.
This paper poses a few fundamental questions regarding the attributes of the volume profile of a Limit Order Books stochastic structure by taking into consideration aspects of intraday and interday statistical features, the impact of different exchange features and the impact of market participants in different asset s…
Bayesian optimization (BO) is a model-based approach to sequentially optimize expensive black-box functions, such as the validation error of a deep neural network with respect to its hyperparameters. In many real-world scenarios, the optimization is further subject to a priori unknown constraints. For example, training…
This study compares price discovery in ETH and BTC markets between centralized and decentralized exchanges.
problem Understanding price discovery dynamics in cryptocurrency markets.
method Comparative analysis of centralized and decentralized exchanges, using econometric tools.
result Centralized exchanges lead in ETH price discovery, while futures markets lead in BTC.
Paper optimizes diffusion models for denoising tasks with theoretical guarantees.
problem Lack of theoretical understanding of MSE optimality in diffusion models.
method Inspired by MSE-optimal CME, proposes a novel denoising strategy for diffusion models.
result Demonstrates polynomial-time convergence to the CME under mild conditions.
We propose a method for detection and prediction of native and synthetic iceberg orders on Chicago Mercantile Exchange. Native (managed by the exchange) icebergs are detected using discrepancies between the resting volume of an order and the actual trade size as indicated by trade summary messages, as well as by tracki…
ByteGen models LOB dynamics without tokenization, achieving realistic market metrics.
problem Modeling high-frequency LOB dynamics in finance.
method Autoregressive next-byte prediction on packed binary data, using H-Net architecture.
result Successfully reproduces stylized facts of financial markets.
In this paper we study dynamic pricing mechanism of contingent claims. A typical model of such pricing mechanism is the so-called g-expectation Es,tg[X] defined by the solution of the backward stochastic differential equation with generator g and with the contingent claim X as terminal condition. The generating f…
New algorithm learns Koopman operator online, with complexity control and convergence guarantees.
problem Online learning of Koopman operator for general nonlinear systems.
method Sparse online learning via stochastic approximation, RKHS action, CME operator.
result Provably convergent algorithm with finite-time guarantees in mis-specified setting.
Paper learns Koopman operator from sparse data, escaping function space constraints.
problem Learning Koopman operator from non-closed function spaces.
method Operator stochastic approximation algorithm using conditional mean embeddings (CME).
result Online sparse learning algorithm with trajectory-based sampling guarantees.
This article prices OTC derivatives with either an exogenously determined initial margin profile or endogenously approximated initial margin. In the former case, margin valuation adjustment (MVA) is defined as the liability-side discounted expected margin profile, while in the latter, an extended partial differential e…
In this paper we study dynamic pricing mechanisms of financial derivatives. A typical model of such pricing mechanism is the so-called g--expectation defined by solutions of a backward stochastic differential equation with g as its generating function. Black-Scholes pricing model is a special linear case of this pricin…
We explore inverse and quanto inverse crypto options, their pricing, and applications.
problem Market incompleteness in crypto options trading.
method Comparison of direct and inverse options, and introduction of currency-protected 'quanto' options.
result Pricing and hedging characteristics of inverse and quanto inverse options in a Black-Scholes framework.
Kriging predicts futures prices by accounting for trends and bid-ask spreads.
problem Predicting futures prices with trends and bid-ask spreads.
method Bayesian Kriging technique to model term structure.
result Kriging accurately predicts futures prices with embedded trends and bid-ask spreads.
Study reveals dynamic linkage between Peanut and Soybean Oil futures markets.
problem Exploring interdependence between Peanut and other agricultural commodities in Chinese futures market.
method Constructed multivariate linear regression models and used VAR and DCC-EGARCH models for dynamic relationships. Applied MLP, CNN, and LSTM neural networks for price prediction.
result Significant dynamic linkage between Peanut and Soybean Oil futures markets through DCC-EGARCH, limited influence from other futures markets through VAR model.
Proposes a new VIX futures trading strategy based on term structure modeling.
problem Optimizing VIX futures trading based on term structure.
method Assumes VIX futures term structure follows a Markov model. Uses a deep neural network to model the functional dependence between VIX futures curve, positions, and expected utility.
result Backtests show reasonable portfolio performance and optimal long/short positions.
Derives pricing formulas for perpetual futures contracts.
problem Ensuring fair pricing of perpetual futures contracts without expiration.
method Explicit expressions derived for various types of perpetual contracts, including linear, inverse, and quantos futures.
result Futures price is the risk-neutral expectation of the spot price sampled at a random time reflecting funding payments.
Hidden Markov model predicts profitable statistical arbitrage in Shanghai crude oil futures.
problem Statistical arbitrage opportunities in international crude oil futures markets.
method Hidden Markov model for cointegration spread, mean-reverting regime-switching process.
result Statistical arbitrage strategies involving Shanghai crude oil futures are profitable.
Calibrates carbon futures option pricing using high-frequency data.
problem Estimating equity and variance risk premia for carbon futures options.
method Multifactor stochastic volatility framework with jumps, employing indirect inference.
result Provides insights into carbon futures and option dynamics.
Futures trading is the core of futures business, and it is considered as one of the typical complex systems. To investigate the complexity of futures trading, we employ the analytical method of complex networks. First, we use real trading records from the Shanghai Futures Exchange to construct futures trading networks,…
The paper analyzes the pricing of a new compute futures asset.
problem Uncertainty in AI adoption and pricing of compute capital.
method An asset-pricing framework for compute futures, including synthetic futures pricing.
result Preliminary evidence suggests a positive compute risk premium.
Study improves prediction of commodity futures using multi-factor model.
problem Improving accuracy in predicting commodity futures prices.
method State-space functional regression model incorporating yield curve dynamics.
result Functional regression model outperforms Schwartz-Smith model in estimating short-end of futures curve.
Study examines how arbitrage between ETF and futures affects market liquidity during crashes.
problem Impact of arbitrage between leveraged ETF and futures on market liquidity during market crashes.
method Artificial market simulations to investigate liquidity changes in L-ETF and futures markets.
result Arbitrage trading affects liquidity supply from one market to another during market crashes.
Model prices commodity futures and index options.
problem Deriving accurate prices for derivative contracts on commodity futures and indices.
method Stochastic local volatility model for commodity futures.
result Model accurately recovers prices of derivative claims.
We consider portfolio optimization in futures markets. We model the entire futures price curve at once as a solution of a stochastic partial differential equation. The agents objective is to maximize her utility from the final wealth when investing in futures contracts. We study a class of futures price curve models wh…
Predicts short-term futures contract direction using neural networks and order flow data.
problem Challenges in predicting short-term directional movement of futures contracts.
method Engineering features from technical analysis, order flow, and order-book data; training a Tabnet neural network.
result Achieved an accuracy of 0.601 in predicting directional change on the Silver Futures Contract.
This study analyzes the correlation structure of global agricultural futures markets using RMT.
problem Understanding the complex correlation structure of global agricultural futures markets.
method Random Matrix Theory (RMT) applied to analyze correlation coefficients and eigenvalues.
result The correlation structure is asymmetric and right skewed, with significant eigenvalues indicating market effects and commodity groups.
Paper builds a supervised learning model for Chinese futures price prediction.
problem Predicting the trend of Chinese futures prices accurately.
method Supervised learning model designed for futures price movement classification.
result The model meets accuracy requirements for classifying futures price movements.
Study optimizes funding rates for cryptocurrency perpetual futures to maintain price alignment.
problem Maintaining alignment between perpetual future prices and target values in cryptocurrency markets.
method Developed replicating portfolios and path-dependent funding rates using path-dependent infinite-horizon BSDEs and arbitrage pricing theory.
result Appropriate funding rate design can keep perpetual future prices aligned with target values.
Surveying nonparametric inference with shape constraints, past and future.
problem Statistical inference under shape constraints.
method Historical overview and future directions.
result Outlook on future research directions.
New method for off-policy evaluation in POMDPs using future-dependent value functions.
problem Curse of horizon in off-policy evaluation for POMDPs.
method Develops future-dependent value functions and minimax learning method.
result PAC result and Bellman completeness for the proposed OPE estimator.
Hierarchical graph learning for calendar spread strategies in commodity futures markets
problem Developing machine-learning methods for calendar spread strategies in commodity futures markets
method Proposing a hierarchical graph learning approach
result Outperforming benchmark models in both prediction and trading performance
We apply the formalism of the continuous time random walk (CTRW) theory to financial tick data of the bond futures transacted in Korean Futures Exchange (KOFEX) market. For our case, the tick dynamical behaviors of the returns and volatility for bond futures are treated particularly at the long-time limit. The volatili…
Study shows post-COVID commodity futures returns and volatility changed for different products.
problem Analyzing how the pandemic affected Chinese commodity futures markets.
method Empirical analysis of commodity futures returns and cointegration before and after the pandemic.
result Post-COVID, some commodity futures returns increased significantly, while others saw higher volatility.
This paper uses Monte Carlo simulation to value quality options in agricultural futures contracts.
problem Valuation of quality options in agricultural futures to prevent manipulation and improve hedging performance.
method Monte Carlo simulation with antithetic variables for efficiency.
result Demonstrates a method to estimate the value of quality options in agricultural futures contracts.
We study a stochastic control approach to managed futures portfolios. Building on the Schwartz 97 stochastic convenience yield model for commodity prices, we formulate a utility maximization problem for dynamically trading a single-maturity futures or multiple futures contracts over a finite horizon. By analyzing the a…