Two algorithms for interpreting and boosting tree-based models using rule covering.
problem Interpreting and boosting tree-based ensemble methods.
method Mathematical programming models constructed from decision tree rules.
result Selects a few rules that closely match the accuracy of the model.
A new gradient boosting method improves interpretability of probabilistic models.
problem Learning interpretable yet accurate probabilistic models with limited rule complexity.
method A new objective function that measures the angle between risk gradient and condition output vector projection.
result Significantly improves comprehensibility/accuracy trade-off of fitted ensemble.
Boosting algorithms improve estimation of personalized treatment rules.
problem Estimating optimal personalized treatment rules in clinical settings.
method Additive regression trees with boosting technique based on XGBoost.
result Efficient and accurate estimation of complex treatment rules.
Boosting is a learning scheme that combines weak prediction rules to produce a strong composite estimator, with the underlying intuition that one can obtain accurate prediction rules by combining "rough" ones. Although boosting is proved to be consistent and overfitting-resistant, its numerical convergence rate is rela…
This paper improves prediction rule ensembles using model-based data generation.
problem Improving the sparsity and predictive accuracy of prediction rule ensembles.
method The authors use surrogate models to train Lasso regression with data generated by a boosted decision tree ensemble, improving PRE performance.
result The use of surrogacy models can substantially improve the sparsity of PRE while retaining predictive accuracy.
This research adapts scoring rules for training survival models, improving predictive performance.
problem Training survival models with traditional methods struggles with censoring.
method Adapting scoring rules for survival analysis, creating a flexible framework for model training.
result Scoring rules can be successfully incorporated into model training, yielding competitive performance.
Boosting combines weak hypotheses to create accurate predictions under bounded VC dimension.
problem How to combine weak hypotheses to achieve accurate predictions efficiently.
method Designing a novel boosting algorithm with complex aggregation rules for bounded VC dimension classes.
result The new boosting algorithm requires fewer weak hypotheses than classical lower bounds, provided they belong to a bounded VC class.
Boosting is a general method of generating many simple classification rules and combining them into a single, highly accurate rule. In this talk, I will review the AdaBoost boosting algorithm and some of its underlying theory, and then look at how this theory has helped us to face some of the challenges of applying Ada…
Develops gradient boosting for multi-label classification.
problem Lack of customizable learning algorithms for multi-label classification.
method Generalizes gradient boosting to multi-output problems and proposes an algorithm for learning multi-label classification rules.
result Ability to minimize both decomposable and non-decomposable loss functions.
Early stopping of iterative algorithms is a widely-used form of regularization in statistics, commonly used in conjunction with boosting and related gradient-type algorithms. Although consistency results have been established in some settings, such estimators are less well-understood than their analogues based on penal…
We present a new online boosting algorithm for adapting the weights of a boosted classifier, which yields a closer approximation to Freund and Schapire's AdaBoost algorithm than previous online boosting algorithms. We also contribute a new way of deriving the online algorithm that ties together previous online boosting…
We consider the problem of learning a forest of nonlinear decision rules with general loss functions. The standard methods employ boosted decision trees such as Adaboost for exponential loss and Friedman's gradient boosting for general loss. In contrast to these traditional boosting algorithms that treat a tree learner…
This paper presents a general iterative bias correction procedure for regression smoothers. This bias reduction schema is shown to correspond operationally to the L2 Boosting algorithm and provides a new statistical interpretation for L2 Boosting. We analyze the behavior of the Boosting algorithm applied to commo…
In this paper, we derive a novel probabilistic model of boosting as a Product of Experts. We re-derive the boosting algorithm as a greedy incremental model selection procedure which ensures that addition of new experts to the ensemble does not decrease the likelihood of the data. These learning rules lead to a generic …
ScoreStop uses gradient tests to stop gradient boosting early.
problem Overfitting in gradient boosted decision trees.
method ScoreStop uses a functional score test based on gradients to stop boosting.
result ScoreStop is competitive with loss-based early stopping methods.
Tree ensembles such as random forests and boosted trees are accurate but difficult to understand, debug and deploy. In this work, we provide the inTrees (interpretable trees) framework that extracts, measures, prunes and selects rules from a tree ensemble, and calculates frequent variable interactions. An rule-based le…
SigD2 reduces noisy rules in rule-based classifiers for better accuracy and readability.
problem Redundant and noisy rules in rule-based classifiers reduce model accuracy and readability.
method Two-stage pruning strategy and ensemble methods (bagging and boosting) to reduce noise and improve model performance.
result SigD2 and ACboost ensemble models outperform state-of-the-art classifiers in terms of accuracy and rule count.
Boosts weak online learners to strong ones with sublinear regret.
problem Online learning agnostic setting without strong guarantees.
method Reduction to online convex optimization, boosting via marginally-better-than-trivial regret guarantees.
result First agnostic online boosting algorithm with sublinear regret.
This paper considers generalized linear models using rule-based features, also referred to as rule ensembles, for regression and probabilistic classification. Rules facilitate model interpretation while also capturing nonlinear dependences and interactions. Our problem formulation accordingly trades off rule set comple…
NGBoost boosts probabilistic predictions using natural gradients.
problem Uncertainty estimation in probabilistic predictions.
method Gradient boosting for probabilistic regression with natural gradient correction.
result NGBoost outperforms existing methods for probabilistic prediction.
Boosting is one of the most significant developments in machine learning. This paper studies the rate of convergence of L2Boosting, which is tailored for regression, in a high-dimensional setting. Moreover, we introduce so-called \textquotedblleft post-Boosting\textquotedblright. This is a post-selection estimator w…
Boosting with unlabeled data achieves optimal sample complexity in agnostic settings.
problem Boosting's sample inefficiency in agnostic learning.
method Designing an agnostic boosting algorithm with unlabeled data to match ERM's sample complexity.
result The total sample complexity is optimal, with a vanishing fraction needing to be labeled.
VisRuler simplifies decision extraction from bagged and boosted trees.
problem Complexity and lack of interpretability in ensemble models.
method Visual analytics tool for selecting robust models, important features, and essential decisions.
result Users successfully extracted and explained decisions from ensemble models.
SurvivalBoost improves prediction of event times in competing risks scenarios.
problem Predicting event times in scenarios with multiple possible outcomes.
method Developed a strictly proper censoring-adjusted scoring rule for stochastic optimization of competing risks.
result SurvivalBoost outperforms 12 state-of-the-art models across various metrics.
Improved autoencoder boosts sequence learning with less memory.
problem Training recurrent networks with high memory costs.
method Sparse Predictive Autoencoder (bRSM) with recurrent connections and boosting rule.
result Near optimal performance on stochastic sequence learning task.
Ensemble methods for supervised machine learning have become popular due to their ability to accurately predict class labels with groups of simple, lightweight "base learners." While ensembles offer computationally efficient models that have good predictive capability they tend to be large and offer little insight into…
Stagewise boosting improves gradient boosting for distributional regression.
problem Vanishing gradient in gradient boosting for distributional regression leads to suboptimal models.
method Proposes a stagewise boosting-type algorithm for distributional regression, combining stagewise regression ideas with gradient boosting and incorporating a novel regularization method, correlation filtering.
result The proposed algorithm provides better results, especially for complex distributions, by reducing the risk of being trapped in a local optimum.
Boosts linear neurons for faster convergence in neural networks.
problem Optimizing neural networks' neurons in function space.
method Reparameterizing network to whiten neuron features using Boosted Backpropagation.
result Equivalent to preconditioned gradient descent, leading to faster convergence.
Proposes a new Q-learning method for survival outcomes in clinical trials.
problem Incomplete follow-up data and nonlinear covariate effects in clinical trials.
method Combines Buckley-James boosting with flexible base learners for estimating optimal treatment regimes.
result Improves treatment decision accuracy and stability in longitudinal clinical trials.
Machine learning models predict US economic recessions using Treasury term spreads.
problem Predicting US economic recessions using Treasury term spreads.
method Gradient Boosting and Random Forest methods trained with SHapley Additive exPlanations (SHAP) framework.
result 3 month to 6 month Treasury term spread is the most relevant for predicting US economic recession.
The paper proves generalization bounds and stopping rules for self-selected data in reciprocal learning.
problem Generalization of learning algorithms using self-selected data.
method Proves universal generalization bounds using covering numbers and Wasserstein ambiguity sets.
result Provides stopping rules for reciprocal learning algorithms to ensure out-of-sample performance.
This paper proposes a boosting-based solution addressing metric learning problems for high-dimensional data. Distance measures have been used as natural measures of (dis)similarity and served as the foundation of various learning methods. The efficiency of distance-based learning methods heavily depends on the chosen d…
Dynamic CBDT improves treatment effect estimation in clinical data.
problem Estimating heterogeneous treatment effects in observational data with high accuracy and interpretability.
method Dynamic Regularized Causal Boosted Decision Trees (CBDT) integrating variance regularization and calibration.
result Significantly improved estimation accuracy and reliable coverage of true treatment effects.
Safe screening rule improves Group SLOPE efficiency.
problem Efficiently selecting groups of predictors in high-dimensional sparse learning.
method Safe screening rule for Group SLOPE, addressing block non-separable group effects.
result Significant computational efficiency gains without sacrificing accuracy.
Unified theory and practical insights for multicalibration boosting.
problem Ensuring fairness and robustness in predictions over diverse functions.
method Developed a unified framework for multicalibration boosting under weaker conditions.
result Boosting iterates converge to a Bregman projection, characterizing multicalibration.
Stochastic gradient descent (SGD) has been the dominant optimization method for training deep neural networks due to its many desirable properties. One of the more remarkable and least understood quality of SGD is that it generalizes relatively well on unseen data even when the neural network has millions of parameters…
The paper examines how to test if two learning algorithms produce similar outcomes.
problem Testing if two learning algorithms produce similar outcomes when trained on different data sets.
method Using Total Variation (TV) distance to measure similarity of posterior distributions.
result TV indistinguishable learning rules are equivalent to existing stability notions and can be statistically amplified.
New method improves model explainability and accuracy with low computational cost.
problem Improving model explainability and accuracy in classification models.
method Distributionally robust optimization to learn sparse ensembles of rule sets.
result Improves model performance on various metrics compared to competing methods.
New bounds show complex neural networks need many queries to learn.
problem Learning non-polynomial activation functions with Gaussian marginals.
method Gradient boosting procedure to amplify lower bounds on SQ dimension of neural networks.
result Statistical-query lower bounds for ReLU regression with 2ncε queries. We propose a new Bayesian model for flexible nonlinear regression and classification using tree ensembles. The model is based on the RuleFit approach in Friedman and Popescu (2008) where rules from decision trees and linear terms are used in a L1-regularized regression. We modify RuleFit by replacing the L1-regularizat…
New algorithms improve uncertainty estimation in satellite precipitation predictions.
problem Lack of uncertainty estimates in machine learning spatial precipitation predictions from satellite data.
method Benchmarked six algorithms including LightGBM, compared using quantile scoring functions and rules.
result LightGBM outperformed other algorithms in quantile scoring rule by 11.10%.
The diversification (generating slightly varying separating discriminators) of Support Vector Machines (SVMs) for boosting has proven to be a challenge due to the strong learning nature of SVMs. Based on the insight that perturbing the SVM kernel may help in diversifying SVMs, we propose two kernel perturbation based b…
In this paper we study predictive pattern mining problems where the goal is to construct a predictive model based on a subset of predictive patterns in the database. Our main contribution is to introduce a novel method called safe pattern pruning (SPP) for a class of predictive pattern mining problems. The SPP method a…
Boosting weak learners to strong ones from aggregate labels is possible for LLP but not for MIL.
problem Boosting weak learners to strong ones from aggregate labels in learning from label proportions (LLP).
method Using a weak learner on large enough bags to obtain a strong learner for small bags in polynomial time.
result Boosting is possible for LLP but not for MIL.
EBLR improves time series forecasting with interpretable results.
problem Forecasting future events to reduce uncertainty.
method Iterative method starting with a base model, adding regression trees to explain errors at each iteration.
result EBLR substantially improves base model performance through extracted features and provides comparable performance to other methods.
New methods improve tree ensemble models by compressing them while maintaining accuracy.
problem Theoretical understanding and practical compression of tree ensembles like random forests and gradient boosting machines.
method Spectral perspective on tree ensembles, deriving minimax rates and developing compression schemes.
result Leading eigenfunctions/singular vectors capture dominant predictive directions, leading to smaller, competitive models.
A new matrix factorization method for high-dimensional data.
problem Exploiting sparse structures in complex data for better interpretability.
method Bayesian shrinkage priors and flexible sparse patterns modeled through row and column dependencies.
result Demonstrated practical advantages through simulation and soccer heatmap analysis.
New trees-based models handle correlated data better.
problem Standard trees-based models ignore correlation structure.
method Explicitly accounts for correlation structure in splitting criterion, stopping rules, and fitted values.
result New approach superior to standard models in simulations and real data.