A locally-built, LLM-digested index of recent arXiv papers in quant finance, geometry/topology, and statistical ML — keyword search served straight from SQLite on this machine.
N-discount optimality was introduced as a hierarchical form of policy- and value-function optimality, with Blackwell optimality lying at the top level of the hierarchy Veinott (1969); Blackwell (1962). We formalize notions of myopic discount factors, value functions and policies in terms of Blackwell optimality in MDPs…
We present a method for constructing the log-optimal portfolio using the well-calibrated forecasts of market values. Dawid's notion of calibration and the Blackwell approachability theorem are used for computing well-calibrated forecasts. We select a portfolio using this "artificial" probability distribution of market …
We consider Blackwell approachability, a very powerful and geometric tool in game theory, used for example to design strategies of the uninformed player in repeated games with incomplete information. We extend this theory to "generalized quitting games" , a class of repeated stochastic games in which each player may ha…
We wish to compute the gradient of an expectation over a finite or countably infinite sample space having K≤∞ categories. When K is indeed infinite, or finite but very large, the relevant summation is intractable. Accordingly, various stochastic gradient estimators have been proposed. In this paper, we de…
We provide yet another proof of the existence of calibrated forecasters; it has two merits. First, it is valid for an arbitrary finite number of outcomes. Second, it is short and simple and it follows from a direct application of Blackwell's approachability theorem to carefully chosen vector-valued payoff function and …
Calibrated strategies can be obtained by performing strategies that have no internal regret in some auxiliary game. Such strategies can be constructed explicitly with the use of Blackwell's approachability theorem, in an other auxiliary game. We establish the converse: a strategy that approaches a convex B-set can be…
We introduce a dynamic mechanism for the solution of analytically-tractable substructure in probabilistic programs, using conjugate priors and affine transformations to reduce variance in Monte Carlo estimators. For inference with Sequential Monte Carlo, this automatically yields improvements such as locally-optimal pr…
Partition functions of probability distributions are important quantities for model evaluation and comparisons. We present a new method to compute partition functions of complex and multimodal distributions. Such distributions are often sampled using simulated tempering, which augments the target space with an auxiliar…
Policy optimization on high-dimensional continuous control tasks exhibits its difficulty caused by the large variance of the policy gradient estimators. We present the action subspace dependent gradient (ASDG) estimator which incorporates the Rao-Blackwell theorem (RB) and Control Variates (CV) into a unified framework…
We study online learnability of a wide class of problems, extending the results of (Rakhlin, Sridharan, Tewari, 2010) to general notions of performance measure well beyond external regret. Our framework simultaneously captures such well-known notions as internal and general Phi-regret, learning with non-additive global…
We consider the "partial information decomposition" (PID) problem, which aims to decompose the information that a set of source random variables provide about a target random variable into separate redundant, synergistic, union, and unique components. In the first part of this paper, we propose a general framework for …
In approachability with full monitoring there are two types of conditions that are known to be equivalent for convex sets: a primal and a dual condition. The primal one is of the form: a set C is approachable if and only all containing half-spaces are approachable in the one-shot game; while the dual one is of the form…
Generative adversarial networks (GANs) are innovative techniques for learning generative models of complex data distributions from samples. Despite remarkable recent improvements in generating realistic images, one of their major shortcomings is the fact that in practice, they tend to produce samples with little divers…
We derive an unbiased estimator for expectations over discrete random variables based on sampling without replacement, which reduces variance as it avoids duplicate samples. We show that our estimator can be derived as the Rao-Blackwellization of three different estimators. Combining our estimator with REINFORCE, we ob…
We introduce local expectation gradients which is a general purpose stochastic variational inference algorithm for constructing stochastic gradients through sampling from the variational distribution. This algorithm divides the problem of estimating the stochastic gradients over multiple variational parameters into sma…
We revisit the Bayesian online inference problems for the linear dynamic systems (LDS) under non- Gaussian environment. The noises can naturally be non-Gaussian (skewed and/or heavy tailed) or to accommodate spurious observations, noises can be modeled as heavy tailed. However, at the cost of such noise robustness, the…
The study quantifies and compares aleatoric and epistemic discrimination in ML models.
problem Sources of discrimination in ML models and their impact on performance.
method Quantifying aleatoric and epistemic discrimination using statistical experiments and model accuracy.
result State-of-the-art fairness interventions are effective at removing epistemic discrimination but not aleatoric discrimination in datasets with missing values.