A locally-built, LLM-digested index of recent arXiv papers in quant finance, geometry/topology, and statistical ML — keyword search served straight from SQLite on this machine.
We propose a general method to obtain approximation of the first passage time distribution for the birth-death processes. We rely on the general properties of birth-death processes, Keilson's theorem and the concept of Riemann sum to obtain closed-form expressions. We apply the method to the three selected birth-death …
We describe an application of machine learning to the problem of predicting preterm birth. We conduct a secondary analysis on a clinical trial dataset collected by the National In- stitute of Child Health and Human Development (NICHD) while focusing our attention on predicting different classes of preterm birth. We com…
We consider models of the population or opinion dynamics which result in the non-linear stochastic differential equations (SDEs) exhibiting the spurious long-range memory. In this context, the correspondence between the description of the birth-death processes as the continuous-time Markov chains and the continuous SDE…
Near a birth-death critical point in a one-parameter family of gradient flows, there are precisely two Morse critical points of index difference one on the birth side. This paper gives a self-contained proof of the folklore theorem that these two critical points are joined by a unique gradient trajectory up to time-shi…
A fundamental problem in Bayesian inference and statistical machine learning is to efficiently sample from multimodal distributions. Due to metastability, multimodal distributions are difficult to sample using standard Markov chain Monte Carlo methods. We propose a new sampling algorithm based on a birth-death mechanis…
Preterm births occur at an alarming rate of 10-15%. Preemies have a higher risk of infant mortality, developmental retardation and long-term disabilities. Predicting preterm birth is difficult, even for the most experienced clinicians. The most well-designed clinical study thus far reaches a modest sensitivity of 18.2-…
Bayesian networks (BNs) are graphical models that are useful for representing high-dimensional probability distributions. There has been a great deal of interest in recent years in the NP-hard problem of learning the structure of a BN from observed data. Typically, one assigns a score to various structures and the sear…
While neural networks have achieved high performance in different learning tasks, their accuracy drops significantly in the presence of small adversarial perturbations to inputs. Defenses based on regularization and adversarial training are often followed by new attacks to defeat them. In this paper, we propose attack-…
The performance of a reinforcement learning algorithm can vary drastically during learning because of exploration. Existing algorithms provide little information about the quality of their current policy before executing it, and thus have limited use in high-stakes applications like healthcare. We address this lack of …
Genealogy research is the study of family history using available resources such as historical records. Ancestry provides its customers with one of the world's largest online genealogical index with billions of records from a wide range of sources, including vital records such as birth and death certificates, census re…
The paper improves risk certificate tightness for neural networks using PAC-Bayes bounds.
problem Improving the usability of risk certificates for neural networks based on PAC-Bayes bounds.
method Theoretical contributions including KL divergence bounds, efficient methodology for optimization, and methods for optimizing non-differentiable objectives.
result First non-vacuous generalization bounds on CIFAR-10 for neural networks.
New method improves robustness of smoothed classifiers against adversarial attacks.
problem Improving robustness of smoothed classifiers against adversarial attacks.
method Proposes worst-case adversarial loss over input distributions as a robustness certificate, and uses duality and smoothness properties to provide an easy-to-compute upper bound.
result Shows superior robustness performance over state-of-the-art certified or heuristic methods.
SREC markets are a relatively novel market-based system to incentivize the production of energy from solar means. A regulator imposes a floor on the amount of energy each regulated firm must generate from solar power in a given period and provides them with certificates for each generated MWh. Firms offset these certif…
This paper develops a general theoretical framework to analyze structured sparse recovery problems using the notation of dual certificate. Although certain aspects of the dual certificate idea have already been used in some previous work, due to the lack of a general and coherent theory, the analysis has so far only be…
Given a tame knot K presented in the form of a knot diagram, we show that the problem of determining whether K is knotted is in the complexity class NP, assuming the generalized Riemann hypothesis (GRH). In other words, there exists a polynomial-length certificate that can be verified in polynomial time to prove that K…