The study tightens bounds on binomial probabilities and minimums using KL-divergence.
problem Tightening bounds on binomial probabilities and minimums of i.i.d. Binomials.
method Applied Sanov's theorem to derive upper and lower bounds on binomial tail probabilities and minimums, expressed in terms of KL-divergence.
result High probability upper and lower bounds on the minimum of i.i.d. Binomial random variables, finite sample, asymptotically tight.
In this paper, we develop a general theory of truncated inverse binomial sampling. In this theory, the fixed-size sampling and inverse binomial sampling are accommodated as special cases. In particular, the classical Chernoff-Hoeffding bound is an immediate consequence of the theory. Moreover, we propose a rigorous and…
We give the proof of a tight lower bound on the probability that a binomial random variable exceeds its expected value. The inequality plays an important role in a variety of contexts, including the analysis of relative deviation bounds in learning theory and generalization bounds for unbounded loss functions.
Extends CRR model with q-binomial random walks for asset pricing.
problem Asset pricing with time-varying probabilities and trend parameters.
method Introduces a q-binomial extension of the CRR model with non-self-similar binomial trees.
result Convergence to Black-Scholes formula with rate O(N^(-1/2)).
The study models credit risk using Merton's framework and binomial trees.
problem Credit risk pricing and implied volatility estimation.
method Calibrated using Merton's structural model, with asset volatility derived from Black-Scholes-Merton. Implied mean return and probability surfaces constructed using a recombining binomial tree.
result Established a practical method for constructing implied credit surfaces.
BKP R package models spatially varying binomial probabilities efficiently.
problem Modeling spatially varying binomial probabilities efficiently.
method Beta Kernel Process (BKP) combining localized kernel-weighted likelihoods with conjugate beta priors.
result Closed-form posterior inference without requiring latent variables or intensive MCMC sampling.
In this paper, we propose the discrete time Compound Beta-Binomial Risk Model with by-claims, delayed by-claims and randomized dividends. We then analyze the Gerber-Shiu function for the cases where the dividend threshold d=0 and d>0 under the assumption that the constant discount rate ν∈(0,1). More specifical…
Adachi and Ryu introduced a category Prob of probability spaces whose objects are all probability spaces and whose arrows correspond to measurable functions satisfying an absolutely continuous requirement in [Adachi and Ryu, 2019]. In this paper, we develop a binomial asset pricing model based on Prob. We introduce gen…
A new tree model, GRST, improves option pricing without log-normality assumptions.
problem Limitations of CRR binomial trees in valuing securities with early exercise characteristics.
method Gaussian Recombining Split Tree (GRST) that generates a discrete probability mass function approximating a Gaussian distribution.
result Option prices from GRST align closely with market prices.
This paper generalizes Moody's correlated binomial default distribution for homogeneous (exchangeable) credit portfolio, which is introduced by Witt, to the case of inhomogeneous portfolios. As inhomogeneous portfolios, we consider two cases. In the first case, we treat a portfolio whose assets have uniform default cor…
Develops a new filtration for asset pricing models.
problem Models of financial asset pricing need to account for information loss.
method Introduces a generalized filtration to represent information loss.
result Validates the new filtration in a binomial asset pricing model.
The article explains the probabilistic method of default probability estimation by Pluto and Tasche.
problem Estimating default probabilities for portfolios with low default rates.
method Detailed derivation and explanation of the Pluto-Tasche method, including assumptions and inequalities.
result Clarification of borrower independence, conditional independence, and interaction between probability distributions.
Probability distributions produced by the cross-entropy loss for ordinal classification problems can possess undesired properties. We propose a straightforward technique to constrain discrete ordinal probability distributions to be unimodal via the use of the Poisson and binomial probability distributions. We evaluate …
Paper uses algebraic signatures to identify probabilistic structures in empirical data.
problem Identifying probabilistic structure from observed binomials in empirical probability tensors.
method Treating vanishing binomials as algebraic signatures, matching signatures to identify models without parameter estimation.
result The method successfully identified rank-one structures in real language data, revealing interpretable sets of words.
We study a sparse negative binomial regression (NBR) for count data by showing the non-asymptotic advantages of using the elastic-net estimator. Two types of oracle inequalities are derived for the NBR's elastic-net estimates by using the Compatibility Factor Condition and the Stabil Condition. The second type of oracl…
Study on stock price formation on trees with multi-population and non-rational agents.
problem Equilibrium price formation for risky stock with multi-population and non-rational agents.
method Combining mean-field game theory with binomial tree framework, proving existence of unique equilibrium, deriving explicit formula for transition probabilities.
result Existence of unique mean-field market-clearing equilibrium with explicit analytic formula for stock price transition probabilities.
New framework for portfolio management using binomial markets and game theory.
problem Investment behavior in competitive and incomplete markets.
method Introduces PRFPP framework, constructs and analyzes for both finite and mean field games.
result Relative performance concerns do not always lead to more risky asset investment.
Detecting and recovering labels in binomial logistic mixtures is challenging due to an information gap.
problem Detecting and recovering labels in binomial logistic mixtures
method Propose two feasibility-aware inference procedures
result Avoid misleading component selections and improve label probability calibration
Investigates the number of experiments needed for statistical significance in medication testing.
problem Determining the number of experiments needed for a statistically significant result.
method Examines binomial and general probability distributions, considering placebo efficacy and varying distributions.
result The number of experiments needed can be significantly higher when placebo efficacy is considered.
By developing data augmentation methods unique to the negative binomial (NB) distribution, we unite seemingly disjoint count and mixture models under the NB process framework. We develop fundamental properties of the models and derive efficient Gibbs sampling inference. We show that the gamma-NB process can be reduced …
The paper solves a financial mathematics problem using polytopes and probability measures.
problem Maximizing the expectation of functions on probability measures.
method Identifying specific functions and using polytopes to find optimal probability measures.
result The supervertex and subvertex of polytopes maximize or minimize the expected value of certain functions.
The paper introduces the concept of a cluster structure to define a joint distribution of the sample size and its exchangeable random partitions. The cluster structure allows the probability distribution of the random partitions of a subset of the sample to be dependent on the sample size, a feature not presented in a …
We present two different approaches for parameter learning in several mixture models in one dimension. Our first approach uses complex-analytic methods and applies to Gaussian mixtures with shared variance, binomial mixtures with shared success probability, and Poisson mixtures, among others. An example result is that …
The beta-negative binomial process (BNBP), an integer-valued stochastic process, is employed to partition a count vector into a latent random count matrix. As the marginal probability distribution of the BNBP that governs the exchangeable random partitions of grouped data has not yet been developed, current inference f…
Enhances binomial model with machine learning for microstructure effects.
problem Traditional binomial models ignore market microstructure effects like bid-ask spreads.
method Augments binomial tree with Random Forest classifiers trained on market data.
result Achieves 88.25% AUC in forecasting price movements using real-world data.
Study optimizes smart contract adoption under high demand variability using Negative Binomial models.
problem Effective supply chain management under high demand variability.
method Combines dynamic Negative Binomial demand modeling with endogenous smart contract adoption optimization.
result The NB model outperforms other benchmarks in forecasting and optimizing smart contract adoption and order quantity.
Efficient Bayesian variable selection for binomial and negative binomial data.
problem Computational challenges in Bayesian variable selection for complex models.
method Tempered Gibbs Sampling and MCMC scheme.
result Demonstrated effectiveness on cancer data with thousands of covariates.
New model predicts weekly earthquakes with better tail risk assessment.
problem Violation of Poisson assumption in seismic data.
method Neural network for per-cell overdispersion estimation.
result 8.6% reduction in mean pinball deviation, 12.5% lower CRPS in tail events.
We construct a binomial tree model fitting all moments to the approximated geometric Brownian motion. Our construction generalizes the classical Cox-Ross-Rubinstein, the Jarrow-Rudd, and the Tian binomial tree models. The new binomial model is used to resolve a discontinuity problem in option pricing.
We define a family of probability distributions for random count matrices with a potentially unbounded number of rows and columns. The three distributions we consider are derived from the gamma-Poisson, gamma-negative binomial, and beta-negative binomial processes. Because the models lead to closed-form Gibbs sampling …
This paper models default data to capture dynamic dependence across sectors.
problem Static models fail to explain monthly default dependence.
method Dynamic low-rank state-space model for monthly multi-sector default-count data.
result Effective correlation matrices and copulas are induced from monthly data.
We construct a binomial model for a guaranteed minimum withdrawal benefit (GMWB) rider to a variable annuity (VA) under optimal policyholder behaviour. The binomial model results in explicitly formulated perfect hedging strategies funded using only periodic fee income. We consider the separate perspectives of the insur…
Temporal coarse-graining of multi-sector default count data generates effective correlation matrices and rank copulas.
problem Explaining the difference in default dependence between monthly and annual aggregation.
method Dynamic low-rank state-space model with AR(1) latent credit-state factors.
result Effective correlation matrices and rank copulas are generated from monthly default count data.
The kth-nearest neighbor rule is arguably the simplest and most intuitively appealing nonparametric classification procedure. However, application of this method is inhibited by lack of knowledge about its properties, in particular, about the manner in which it is influenced by the value of k; and by the absence of…
Correction for Error estimates for binomial approximations of game options [math.PR/0607123]
Count data take on non-negative integer values and are challenging to properly analyze using standard linear-Gaussian methods such as linear regression and principal components analysis. Generalized linear models enable direct modeling of counts in a regression context using distributions such as the Poisson and negati…
The paper presents a practical method for evaluating investment projects using real options.
problem Evaluating investment projects under uncertainty and strategic risk management.
method Binomial trees and real options techniques for evaluating investment projects.
result The method can be used for most real options and introduces Project Value at Risk for feasibility.
New formulae identify discrete probability laws without needing normalization constants.
problem Characterizing non-normalized discrete probability distributions.
method Derive explicit formulae for mass functions using Stein's method.
result Developed tools for solving statistical problems without normalization constants.
Using techniques from the theories of convex polytopes, lattice paths, and indirect influences on directed manifolds, we construct continuous analogues for the binomial coefficients and the Catalan numbers. Our approach for constructing these analogues can be applied to a wide variety of combinatorial sequences. As an …
The theme in this paper is the recombining binomial tree to price American put option when the underlying stock follows constant elasticity of variance(CEV) process. Recombining nodes of binomial tree are decided from finite difference scheme to emulate CEV process and the tree has a linear complexity. Also it is deriv…
We construct algorithms via binomial approximations for computation of prices of game put options and obtain estimates of approximation errors.
Transformer learns to estimate negative binomial parameters efficiently.
problem Parameter estimation for over-dispersed count data in large screens.
method Pre-trained transformer trained on synthetic data generation to invert parameter to count transformation.
result Method of moments provides faster, more efficient, and better-calibrated estimates.
We present a new modeling technique for solving the problem of ecological inference, in which individual-level associations are inferred from labeled data available only at the aggregate level. We model aggregate count data as arising from the Poisson binomial, the distribution of the sum of independent but not identic…
In the present paper we show that the Binomial-tree approach for pricing, hedging, and risk assessment of Convertible bonds in the framework of the Tsiveriotis-Fernandes model has serious drawbacks. Key words: Convertible bonds, Binomial tree, Tsiveriotis-Fernandes model, Convertible bond pricing, Convertible bond Gree…
We consider a problem of ecological inference, in which individual-level covariates are known, but labeled data is available only at the aggregate level. The intended application is modeling voter preferences in elections. In Rosenman and Viswanathan (2018), we proposed modeling individual voter probabilities via a log…
The paper models stock returns using q-Gaussians and negative binomials.
problem Modeling stock return distributions and pricing options.
method Proposes a generalized jump-diffusion model and uses q-Gaussians and negative binomial distributions. result An explicit option pricing formula is derived.
The seemingly disjoint problems of count and mixture modeling are united under the negative binomial (NB) process. A gamma process is employed to model the rate measure of a Poisson process, whose normalization provides a random probability measure for mixture modeling and whose marginalization leads to an NB process f…
We explain the main concepts of Prospect Theory and Cumulative Prospect Theory within the framework of rational dynamic asset pricing theory. We derive option pricing formulas when asset returns are altered with a generalized Prospect Theory value function or a modified Prelec weighting probability function and introdu…