A locally-built, LLM-digested index of recent arXiv papers in quant finance, geometry/topology, and statistical ML — keyword search served straight from SQLite on this machine.
New CTRW model with memory explains long-term return autocorrelation.
Motivated by the literature on investment flows and optimal trading, we examine intraday predictability in the cross-section of stock returns. We find a striking pattern of return continuation at half-hour intervals that are exact multiples of a trading day, and this effect lasts for at least 40 trading days. Volume, o…
We present a simple microstructure model of financial returns that combines (i) the well-known ARFIMA process applied to tick-by-tick returns, (ii) the bid-ask bounce effect, (iii) the fat tail structure of the distribution of returns and (iv) the non-Poissonian statistics of inter-trade intervals. This model allows us…
A novel version of the Continuous-Time Random Walk (CTRW) model with memory is developed. This memory means the dependence between arbitrary number of successive jumps of the process, while waiting times between jumps are considered as i.i.d. random variables. The dependence was found by analysis of empirical histogram…
Study on billiard trajectories with fixed bounces.
Study timelike bounce in charged null dust collapse, identifying key surfaces.
Two oppositely charged droplets of (say) water in e.g. oil or air will tend to drift together under the influence of their charges. As they make contact, one might expect them to coalesce and form one large droplet, and this indeed happens when the charge difference is sufficiently small. However, Ristenpart et al disc…
The study finds a liquidity premium in stock returns, but only after correcting for microstructure noise.
New method identifies whether equity return predictability is due to magnitude shrinkage or directional reversal.
The paper discovers and evaluates support and resistance levels in financial time series.
Deep models struggle with predicting multiple frames of bouncing objects.
We consider a limit order book, where buyers and sellers register to trade a security at specific prices. The largest price buyers on the book are willing to offer is called the market bid price, and the smallest price sellers on the book are willing to accept is called the market ask price. Market ask price is always …
In this paper a finite discrete time market with an arbitrary state space and bid-ask spreads is considered. The notion of an equivalent bid-ask martingale measure (EBAMM) is introduced and the fundamental theorem of asset pricing is proved using (EBAMM) as an equivalent condition for no-arbitrage. The Cox-Ross-Rubinst…
A new relaxed framework for pricing illiquid derivatives using bid-ask spreads.
Paper uses reinforcement learning to optimize bid-ask spreads in OTC markets.
Microstructure of market dynamics is studied through analysis of tick price data. Linear trend is introduced as a tool for such analysis. Trend arbitrage inequality is developed and tested. The inequality sets limiting relationship between trend, bid-ask spread, market reaction and average update frequency of price inf…
A new model predicts bid-ask spread dynamics in financial markets.
Kriging predicts futures prices by accounting for trends and bid-ask spreads.
We price weather-contingent options by use of Monte Carlo simulations. After calibrating the models to fit quoted prices, we analyze bid-ask spreads in terms of correlations across markets. Results are presented for a double-trigger Weather vs. Natural Gas call option.
In our empirical study, we examine the price of liquid stocks after experiencing a large intraday price change using data from the NYSE and the NASDAQ. We find significant reversal for both intraday price decreases and increases. The results are stable against varying parameters. While on the NYSE the large widening of…
Method leverages bid/ask curves to improve price distribution forecasts.
Axiomatizes the bid-ask market maker's quoting rule
Statistical properties of order-driven double-auction markets with Bid-Ask spread are investigated through the dynamical quantities such as response function. We first attempt to utilize the so-called {\it Madhavan-Richardson-Roomans model} (MRR for short) to simulate the stochastic process of the price-change in empir…
We derive a continuous time model for the joint evolution of the mid price and the bid-ask spread from a multiscale analysis of the whole limit order book (LOB) dynamics. We model the LOB as a multiclass queueing system and perform our asymptotic analysis using stylized features observed empirically. We argue that in t…
The paper proposes estimators for bid-ask spreads with and without serial dependence.
The statistical properties of the bid-ask spread of a frequently traded Chinese stock listed on the Shenzhen Stock Exchange are investigated using the limit-order book data. Three different definitions of spread are considered based on the time right before transactions, the time whenever the highest buying price or th…
Paper uses RL to optimize bid-ask spreads for diverse options.
The target of this paper is to establish the bid-ask pricing frame work for the American contingent claims against risky assets with G-asset price systems (see \cite{Chen2013b}) on the financial market under Knight uncertainty. First, we prove G-Dooby-Meyer decomposition for G-supermartingale. Furthermore, we consider …
We use high-frequency data of 1364 Chinese A-share stocks traded on the Shanghai Stock Exchange and Shenzhen Stock Exchange to investigate the intraday patterns in the bid-ask spreads. The daily periodicity in the spread time series is confirmed by Lomb analysis and the intraday bid-ask spreads are found to exhibit …
Method determines asset prices in incomplete markets to optimize portfolios.
New method calibrates crypto option prices more robustly.
We consider rate swaps which pay a fixed rate against a floating rate in presence of bid-ask spread costs. Even for simple models of bid-ask spread costs, there is no explicit strategy optimizing an expected function of the hedging error. We here propose an efficient algorithm based on the stochastic gradient method to…
Quantum theory explains price dynamics in financial markets, capturing bid-ask spread and ergodicity.
Market opening affects bid-ask spread stability.
This paper uses HCR to predict bid-ask spreads from accessible data.
We introduce, in continuous time, an axiomatic approach to assign to any financial position a dynamic ask (resp. bid) price process. Taking into account both transaction costs and liquidity risk this leads to the convexity (resp. concavity) of the ask (resp. bid) price. Time consistency is a crucial property for dynami…
Study optimal semi-static hedging for illiquid markets using dynamic cash and static quoted derivatives.
Paper explores MM strategies that can refuse to quote or provide single-sided quotes.
We give a complete characterization of the relationship between the shape of a Euclidean polygon and the symbolic dynamics of its billiard flow. We prove that the only pairs of tables that can have the same bounce spectrum are right-angled tables that differ by an affine map. The main tool is a new theorem that establi…
Uniform hyperbolicity is a strong chaotic property which holds, in particular, for Sinai billiards. In this paper, we consider the case of a nonflat billiard, that is, a Riemannian manifold with boundary. Each trajectory follows the geodesic flow in the interior of the billiard, and bounces when it meets the boundary. …
Quantum model explains stock market price behavior.
We show that the cost of market orders and the profit of infinitesimal market-making or -taking strategies can be expressed in terms of directly observable quantities, namely the spread and the lag-dependent impact function. Imposing that any market taking or liquidity providing strategies is at best marginally profita…
Given a finite set of European call option prices on a single underlying, we want to know when there is a market model which is consistent with these prices. In contrast to previous studies, we allow models where the underlying trades at a bid-ask spread. The main question then is how large (in terms of a deterministic…
A model-free framework extracts risk-neutral densities from short-dated options.
It has been suggested that marked point processes might be good candidates for the modelling of financial high-frequency data. A special class of point processes, Hawkes processes, has been the subject of various investigations in the financial community. In this paper, we propose to enhance a basic zero-intelligence o…
Study examines new financial metrics and their implications for trading and risk management.
In this paper, we propose a new method for estimating the conditional risk-neutral density (RND) directly from a cross-section of put option bid-ask quotes. More precisely, we propose to view the RND recovery problem as an inverse problem. We first show that it is possible to define restricted put and call operators th…
New findings on option pricing under bounded bid-ask spreads, showing minimal obstruction and explicit operator.