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arXiv research

A locally-built, LLM-digested index of recent arXiv papers in quant finance, geometry/topology, and statistical ML — keyword search served straight from SQLite on this machine.

168,695 papers · 148 categories

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4080120160 · Jun 202019922001200920172026
48 results for Bias Assessment

ABROCA assesses algorithmic bias, revealing skewed distributions that inflate results.

problem Detecting nuanced performance differences in classifier fairness.
method Study of ABROCA metric's statistical properties under various conditions.
result ABROCA distributions are skewed, inflating results by chance in imbalanced classes.

Study improves statistical power for detecting algorithmic bias in educational data.

problem Challenges in measuring algorithmic bias using ABROCA due to skewed distribution.
method Investigates ABROCA's distributional properties and proposes nonparametric randomization tests.
result ABROCA-based bias assessments are underpowered in typical EDM sample sizes.

The paper introduces Relative Bias to quantify LLM bias systematically.

problem Quantifying bias in LLMs is challenging due to ambiguity and rapid model emergence.
method Relative Bias framework using Embedding Transformation and LLM-as-a-Judge methodologies.
result The two scoring methods show strong alignment, providing a systematic approach.

Study evaluates bias mitigation methods in deep learning, finds they often exploit hidden biases.

problem Deep learning systems learn biases, affecting performance on minority groups.
method Improved evaluation protocol, new dataset, robustness across different tuning distributions.
result Bias mitigation methods often exploit hidden biases, are not robust to multiple forms of bias, and are sensitive to tuning set choice.

Bias and heterogeneity in peer assessment can lead to the issue of unfair scoring in the educational field. To deal with this problem, we propose a reference ranking method for an online peer assessment system using HodgeRank. Such a scheme provides instructors with an objective scoring reference based on mathematics.

2018-03-07abs ↗pdf ↗

Develops Austen plots for assessing bias from unobserved confounding in observational studies.

problem Bias in causal estimates due to unobserved confounding.
method Formalizes confounding strength, uses Austen plots to visualize and quantify bias.
result Allows domain experts to assess the plausibility of strong confounders.

Study shows non-systematic bias in customer satisfaction surveys limits data value.

problem Non-systematic bias in customer satisfaction surveys limits data value.
method Used real customer satisfaction survey data of a large retail bank to show the irreducible error and suggest thoughtful survey design methods.
result A thoughtful survey design can reduce non-systematic error in customer satisfaction surveys.

New diagnostic tool for assessing approximate Bayesian inference.

problem Assessing the trustworthiness of approximate Bayesian inference.
method Reframe the problem in terms of incompatible conditional distributions and use Gibbs priors.
result The diagnostic tool can discover the inductive bias in various Bayesian models and approximations.

Framework audits synthetic datasets for trustworthiness across various use cases.

problem Assessing the trustworthiness of synthetic datasets and models.
method Holistic auditing framework focusing on bias, fidelity, utility, robustness, and privacy.
result Introduces a trustworthiness index and model selection process for controllable trade-offs.

This study simulates biases in classifiers to assess fairness.

problem Mitigating biases in predictive models to ensure fairness.
method Agent-based model (ABM) to generate synthetic datasets with controlled biases, applied to offline and online learning approaches.
result Demonstrates how biases in data affect classifier outcomes and how mitigations impact feature usage.

Recidivism prediction provides decision makers with an assessment of the likelihood that a criminal defendant will reoffend that can be used in pre-trial decision-making. It can also be used for prediction of locations where crimes most occur, profiles that are more likely to commit violent crimes. While such instrumen…

2019-09-18abs ↗pdf ↗

5D AI model detects bad loans without biased features, improving consumer protection.

problem Detecting bad loans without biased features and improving consumer protection.
method Machine learning, BiMOPT features, European Banking Authority principles, AI principles, historical and validation datasets.
result 5D correctly detected 1,461 bad loans out of 1,613 (Sensitivity = 0.91, Prevalence = 0.0253, Positive Predictive Value = 0.19).

New framework for interpreting disaggregated fairness evaluations using causal models.

problem Misinterpretation of disaggregated fairness evaluations due to data representativeness and selection bias.
method Causal graphical models to characterize fairness properties and metric stability under different data generating processes.
result Disaggregated evaluations are unreliable without explicit assumptions regarding bias mechanisms.

The paper finds a pervasive and severe bias in accounting semi-identity models.

problem Bias in investment-cash flow sensitivity models.
method Augmented specification with a bias-capturing variable tested across multiple databases.
result The Accounting Semi-Identity (ASI) distortion is universal and severe, affecting 100% of databases and explaining more than 83% of total explained variance.

This report reviews the Edinburgh tram project's risk management. Projects frequently overrun their cost and timelines and fall short on intended benefits. Cost, schedule, and benefit risk of projects need to be carefully considered to avoid this. The report describes and evaluates risk assessment and management for th…

2018-04-02abs ↗pdf ↗

New causal models perform poorly when evaluated on biased training sets.

problem Sample selection bias affects the evaluation of causal models' prediction performance.
method Re-evaluated prediction performance of causal models on a genetic perturbation data set, proposing a less-biased evaluation set.
result Causal models have similar or worse performance when evaluated on a less-biased set compared to standard association-based estimators.

The paper introduces a new framework to assess generative model uncertainty.

problem Lack of a theoretical framework for assessing generative models' generalization and uncertainty.
method Bias-variance-covariance decomposition for kernel scores, with unbiased and consistent estimators.
result Kernel-based variance and entropy for uncertainty estimation are more predictive than existing methods.

New metric MADD assesses fairness of predictive student models.

problem Predictive student models can be biased and unfair, leading to discrimination.
method Proposes MADD metric to analyze model's discriminatory behaviors.
result Fair predictive performance does not guarantee fair behaviors or outcomes.

Study measures gender bias in machine translation using multiple reference points.

problem Measuring and identifying gender bias in machine translation.
method Used an optimal non-biased translator, reference points from occupational statistics and survey.
result Found bias against both genders, but more against women, and found occupations have a greater effect than adjectives.

The paper addresses bias in survival analysis due to informative censoring.

problem Bias in treatment effect estimates due to informative censoring in survival analysis.
method Assumption-lean framework using partial identification to derive bounds on CATE.
result Proposes a meta-learner, SurvB-learner, to estimate bounds on CATE.

ProPublica's analysis of recidivism predictions produced by Correctional Offender Management Profiling for Alternative Sanctions (COMPAS) software tool for the task, has shown that the predictions were racially biased against African American defendants. We analyze the COMPAS data using a causal reformulation of the un…

2019-11-24abs ↗pdf ↗

Artificial Intelligence (AI) is an important driving force for the development and transformation of the financial industry. However, with the fast-evolving AI technology and application, unintentional bias, insufficient model validation, immature contingency plan and other underestimated threats may expose the company…

2019-12-16abs ↗pdf ↗

New methods correct bias in LLM-as-a-Judge evaluations, but reliability depends on judge quality and model calibration.

problem Systematic bias in LLM-as-a-Judge evaluations using naive estimators.
method Analytical results, simulations, and real-data case study to diagnose reliability of corrected estimates.
result Corrected estimates, especially shared-calibration comparisons, can be unreliable under certain conditions.

New framework tackles fairness in link prediction beyond demographic parity.

problem Systemic biases in link prediction can exacerbate societal inequalities.
method Formalizes limitations of existing fairness evaluations and proposes a new framework.
result Proposes a lightweight post-processing method combined with decoupled link predictors.

Credit scoring models support loan approval decisions in the financial services industry. Lenders train these models on data from previously granted credit applications, where the borrowers' repayment behavior has been observed. This approach creates sample bias. The scoring model (i.e., classifier) is trained on accep…

2019-09-13abs ↗pdf ↗

Proposes a sensitivity framework to handle limited overlap in causal inference.

problem Limited overlap between treated and control groups in observational studies.
method Sensitivity framework based on worst-case confidence bounds on bias introduced by trimming.
result Protects against spurious findings by quantifying uncertainty in regions with limited overlap.

We detect lookahead bias in LLM forecasts using a novel statistical method.

problem Detecting lookahead bias in LLM-generated economic forecasts.
method Developed a statistical procedure using date-only recall queries and estimated Lookahead Propensity (LAP).
result LLM forecasts are contaminated with lookahead bias, as indicated by a positive interaction between LAP and the forecast in accuracy regressions.

To improve the efficiency of Monte Carlo estimation, practitioners are turning to biased Markov chain Monte Carlo procedures that trade off asymptotic exactness for computational speed. The reasoning is sound: a reduction in variance due to more rapid sampling can outweigh the bias introduced. However, the inexactness …

2015-06-09abs ↗pdf ↗

Paper develops a new estimator for MDPs' risk functionals with lower variance and bias.

problem Estimating the distribution of returns in MDPs with high variance and bias.
method Developed a doubly robust (DR) estimator for the CDF of returns in MDPs, incorporating model-based estimation to mitigate variance issues.
result The DR estimator achieves lower variance and bias compared to IS estimators, and matches minimax lower bounds.

This paper addresses external validity bias in causal inference.

problem Estimating causal effects in a target population.
method Synthesis of approaches for generalizability and transportability, including tests for heterogeneity of treatment effects and differences between study and target populations.
result Framework for addressing external validity bias in causal inference.

New algorithm mitigates affinity bias in hiring feedback loops.

problem Mitigating affinity bias in hiring decisions to avoid unconscious favoritism.
method Introducing affinity bandits, a new bandit variant that accounts for evolving biased feedback.
result Elimination-style algorithm nearly matches the derived regret bound, outperforming classical algorithms.