A new method improves uncertainty quantification in Bayesian inference.
problem Poor uncertainty quantification in traditional Gibbs posteriors.
method Sequential Gibbs posteriors with a Bernstein-von Mises theorem.
result Sequential Gibbs posteriors provide better frequentist coverage.
Deep Bayesian neural networks effectively select variables with rigorous uncertainty quantification.
problem High-dimensional variable selection with uncertainty.
method Developed new Bayesian non-parametric theorems for deep BNNs.
result BNNs can learn variable importance effectively in high dimensions and rigorously quantify uncertainty.
Bayesian UQ matches frequentist UQ for adaptively collected data.
problem Uncertainty quantification for adaptive data collection.
method Extends Bernstein-von Mises theorem to adaptively collected data.
result Bayesian UQ asymptotically matches Wald-type frequentist UQ.
New method uses fractional posteriors for semiparametric inference with improved uncertainty quantification.
problem Semiparametric inference with nonparametric priors and fractional posteriors.
method Established a general Bernstein--von Mises theorem for fractional posterior distributions, proposed shifted-and-rescaled credible sets.
result Fractional posterior credible sets provide reliable uncertainty quantification but have inflated size; shifted-and-rescaled set is an efficient confidence set.
A scalable method for accurate inference of low-dimensional parameters in high-dimensional linear regression.
problem Statistical inference for low-dimensional parameters in high-dimensional linear regression models.
method Mean-field variational Bayes approach, focusing on nuisance parameters and conditional distributions.
result Competitive numerical performance and theoretical guarantees for estimation and uncertainty quantification.
Solves parameter non-identifiability in Bayesian LTI system identification.
problem Parameter non-identifiability in standard Bayesian approaches for LTI system identification.
method Embedding canonical forms of LTI systems within the Bayesian framework.
result Unlocking the use of meaningful priors and robust uncertainty estimates.
Improves Laplace approximation for Bayesian inference on Riemannian manifolds.
problem Inaccurate Gaussian approximations for complex targets and finite-data posteriors.
method Develops alternative variants of the Laplace approximation using a Riemannian metric.
result Exact approximations at the limit of infinite data, improving practical performance.
Optimized α-posteriors reduce KL divergence from true posterior in parametric misspecification.
problem Reduction of KL divergence from true posterior in parametric model misspecification.
method Derivation of Bernstein-von Mises theorem and optimization of α-posteriors. result Optimized α-posteriors minimize KL divergence from true posterior, especially in severe misspecification. Bayesian method for estimating ATE with robustness to model misspecification.
problem Estimating average treatment effects under unconfoundedness.
method Double robust Bayesian inference using adjusted prior and posterior distributions.
result Bayesian credible sets form asymptotically exact confidence intervals.
Markov chain Monte Carlo methods are often deemed too computationally intensive to be of any practical use for big data applications, and in particular for inference on datasets containing a large number n of individual data points, also known as tall datasets. In scenarios where data are assumed independent, various…
Paper analyzes frequentist coverage and convergence rates in Gaussian process regression.
problem Understanding frequentist coverage and convergence rates in Gaussian process regression.
method Develops a Bernstein von-Mises type result and compares posterior distributions to population level GPs.
result Frequentist coverage probabilities of Bayesian credible intervals and bands converge to a non-degenerate value.
Bayesian model selection via mean-field variational approximation improves efficiency and accuracy.
problem Bayesian model selection under model mis-specification and latent variables.
method Mean-field variational approximation with non-asymptotic properties and geometric convergence.
result ELBO tends to select models closer to the true model than BIC as sample size increases.
RSI uses Bayesian inference to monitor compliance in rule-governed domains.
problem Structural obstacles in compliance monitoring, including unlabeled outcomes and selective withholding of evidence.
method Rule-State Inference (RSI) treats formalized rules as Bayesian priors and infers compliance states through mean-field variational inference.
result RSI delivers formal guarantees of adaptability, consistency, and convergence, validated on a synthetic enterprise benchmark.
New method resolves causal heterogeneity by defining a resolution profile.
problem Causal subgroup analyses often oversimplify heterogeneity into a small number of groups.
method Introduces a resolution profile as a functional of the causal feature law, using Bayesian-bootstrap inference.
result Shows that the resolution profile is a continuous path with discontinuities at knots, providing integer-valued subgroup numbers.
Bayesian method improves SS settings by leveraging unlabeled data.
problem Improving parameter estimation in semi-supervised settings with unlabeled data.
method Bayesian approach using debiasing of summary statistics.
result Concrete theoretical results validate the method's efficiency and robustness.
Bayesian inference corrected for bias in high-dimensional models.
problem Bayesian inference for high-dimensional regression models often produces biased credible sets.
method Debiasing approach based on Bernstein-von Mises theorem.
result Frequentist validity of debiased Bayesian posterior.
Bayesian nonparametric models get better posterior estimates via SPDE methods.
problem Estimating posterior distributions in nonparametric Bayesian models.
method Extending diffusion methods to SPDEs on Hilbert spaces for posterior contraction and Laplace approximation.
result Derivation of posterior contraction rates and finite-sample Bernstein von Mises results.
Bayesian methods improve DiD analysis for ATT estimation.
problem Estimating ATT in DiD designs with improved accuracy.
method Semiparametric Bayesian outcome regression and doubly robust adjustment.
result Bayesian methods provide strong finite-sample performance.
We analyze SGAs for statistical inference via asymptotics, improving tuning methods.
problem Improper tuning of SGAs for optimization and sampling.
method Characterize large-sample asymptotics of SGAs via step-size and sample-size scaling limits.
result Iterate averaging with large step size is robust and asymptotically has covariance proportional to MLE's.
Bayesian approach improves uncertainty in deep learning models.
problem Uncertainty quantification in deep learning models.
method Bayesian point of view, Gaussian approximability, semi-parametric Bernstein-von Mises theorems.
result Bayesian credible regions have valid frequentist coverage, providing theoretical justification for deep learning.
We solve the mean parametrization of von Mises-Fisher distribution.
problem No closed-form normalization function for mean parameters exists.
method Derived a second-order ODE for mean normalizer and provided approximations.
result Rapid evaluation of densities and natural parameters in terms of mean parameters.
Develops diffusion models for time-varying correlation on the circle.
problem Time-varying correlation modeling on the circle.
method Stochastic processes on the unit circle, specifically Brownian motion and von Mises diffusion.
result Derives an accurate analytical approximation to the transition density of the von Mises diffusion.
We present a derivation of the Kullback Leibler (KL)-Divergence (also known as Relative Entropy) for the von Mises Fisher (VMF) Distribution in d-dimensions.
Sparse prototypes improve clustering of high-dimensional directional data.
problem Clustering high-dimensional directional data like texts.
method Estimate a von Mises mixture using l1 penalized likelihood and EM algorithm.
result Sparse prototypes enhance interpretability and clustering performance.
Bayesian method uses data spectra to estimate non-sparse high-dimensional models.
problem Handling many parameters in high-dimensional Bayesian statistics.
method Data-adaptive Gaussian prior aligned with leading eigenvectors of sample covariance.
result Posterior contraction rates reveal the effect of spectral mass on prediction error.
A key challenge for modern Bayesian statistics is how to perform scalable inference of posterior distributions. To address this challenge, variational Bayes (VB) methods have emerged as a popular alternative to the classical Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) methods. VB methods tend to be faster while achieving comparabl…
Bayesian online learning algorithm for one-pass data, achieving frequentist validity and uncertainty quantification.
problem Theoretical limitations in Bayesian online learning, especially in the one-pass setting.
method Proposed a new Bayesian online learning algorithm with a warm-start phase for the one-pass regime, establishing convergence rates and valid uncertainty quantification.
result The sequentially updated posterior attains optimal convergence rates and valid uncertainty quantification without diverging mini-batch sample sizes.
Improved Bayesian uncertainty quantification using variational bagging.
problem Inefficient and underestimating uncertainty in mean-field variational Bayes.
method Integrates bagging with variational Bayes for improved inference.
result Bagged variational posterior provides proper uncertainty quantification.
VB under misspecified models yields asymptotically normal posterior and predictive distributions.
problem Theoretical guarantees for VB under model misspecification.
method Proved asymptotic normality and KL divergence minimization for VB posterior under misspecified models.
result VB posterior mean centers at the true distribution's minimum KL divergence, explaining predictive accuracy with MCMC.
The paper studies stability of mean-field variational inference for log-concave distributions.
problem Stability of mean-field variational inference for log-concave distributions.
method Novel approach via linearized optimal transport, lifting non-convex problem to convex optimization over transport maps.
result Dimension-free Lipschitz continuity of the MFVI optimizer with respect to the target distribution, measured in 2-Wasserstein distance.
Researchers analyze SGD dynamics using von Mises-Fisher distributions.
problem Understanding the dynamics of stochastic gradient descent in high-dimensional spaces.
method Geometric analysis of minibatch gradient norms and directions through von Mises-Fisher distribution.
result Directional uniformity of minibatch gradients increases over SGD iterations.
MCMC complexity matches optimization for large n and d.
problem Lack of theoretical understanding of MCMC complexity for large n and d. method Comparison of MCMC, LA, and VI complexities for linear, logistic, and Poisson regression.
result MCMC complexity matches optimization complexity for n≳d. Bayesian method corrects misspecified volatility estimation in high-frequency financial data.
problem Volatility estimation in financial data with infinite jump activity and microstructure noise.
method Proposes a misspecified posterior corrected by a simple estimate of the location shift and re-scaling of the log likelihood.
result Establishes a Bernstein-von Mises theorem for the adjusted posterior, showing asymptotic Gaussianity and consistent estimation.
Bayesian framework uses AI-generated data to improve parameter estimation.
problem Parameter estimation in models with unknown or unspecified likelihood.
method Exponentially tilted empirical likelihood with Dirichlet process posterior.
result AI-generated data can provide useful regularization for parameter estimation.
Robust VB framework for large datasets with outliers.
problem Handling outliers and contamination in large datasets.
method Divide and conquer approach with geometric median aggregation.
result VM-Posterior distribution preserves contraction properties.
Abstract: Summarizes Bernstein property results for differential equations.
problem Summarizing Bernstein property results for differential equations.
method Not specified in the abstract, likely involves mathematical analysis and differential equations.
result Not specified in the abstract, likely involves proving or disproving the Bernstein property for specific equations.
Bagging is a device intended for reducing the prediction error of learning algorithms. In its simplest form, bagging draws bootstrap samples from the training sample, applies the learning algorithm to each bootstrap sample, and then averages the resulting prediction rules. We extend the definition of bagging from stati…
Adaptive Bernstein copulas improve risk management by preventing overfitting and reducing simulation effort.
problem Overfitting and high simulation effort in estimating dependence models.
method Constructive approach to Bernstein copulas with an admissible discrete skeleton.
result Comparison of different copula approaches in risk management shows improved accuracy and efficiency.
Survey Bernstein-type theorems for graphical surfaces in Euclidean and Lorentz-Minkowski spaces.
problem Proving theorems for minimal and constant mean curvature graphs in Euclidean and Lorentz-Minkowski spaces.
method Explains several proofs and provides mean curvature estimates for graphs in Euclidean and Lorentz-Minkowski spaces.
result Bernstein-type theorems for constant mean curvature graphs in Euclidean 3-space and space-like graphs in Lorentz-Minkowski 3-space.
In this paper we study nonconvex penalization using Bernstein functions. Since the Bernstein function is concave and nonsmooth at the origin, it can induce a class of nonconvex functions for high-dimensional sparse estimation problems. We derive a threshold function based on the Bernstein penalty and give its mathemati…
In this paper we study nonconvex penalization using Bernstein functions whose first-order derivatives are completely monotone. The Bernstein function can induce a class of nonconvex penalty functions for high-dimensional sparse estimation problems. We derive a thresholding function based on the Bernstein penalty and di…
Bayesian method corrects bias in treatment effect estimation.
problem Estimating treatment effects from observational data with high-dimensional nuisance parameters.
method Bayesian debiasing, targeted modeling, sample splitting.
result Marginal posterior for ATE satisfies Bernstein-von Mises theorem under correct nuisance model specification.
Ancient solutions to mean curvature flow have unique shapes.
problem Understanding unique shapes of ancient solutions.
method Proved a Bernstein theorem for ancient solutions.
result Ancient solutions to mean curvature flow have unique shapes.
New formulae derived for conformal symmetry breaking operators.
problem Understanding conformal symmetry breaking operators.
method Bernstein-Sato identities for distribution kernels.
result New formulae for conformal symmetry breaking differential operators.
The study models insurance dependence using Bernstein copulas.
problem Modeling dependence structures in nonlife insurance data.
method Review and suggest fitting Bernstein copulas to empirical data.
result Monte Carlo simulation and PML estimation for aggregate losses.
Deep model generates high-quality speech from spectrograms.
problem Speech reconstruction from spectrograms.
method Deep generative model with Gaussian and von Mises distributions for magnitude and phase, variational autoencoder framework.
result Generated speech has high perceptual quality and intelligibility.
Improved understanding of translating solitons using new techniques.
problem Understanding translating solitons in geometry.
method Using a new test function and gradient estimate technique.
result Better Bernstein type result of translating solitons.
Explains Bernstein theorems for various geometric PDEs.
problem Bernstein problem for minimal surface, Monge-Ampère, and special Lagrangian equations.
method Expository review of existing theorems and systems.
result Discussion of Bernstein theorems for different geometric PDEs.