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arXiv research

A locally-built, LLM-digested index of recent arXiv papers in quant finance, geometry/topology, and statistical ML — keyword search served straight from SQLite on this machine.

168,695 papers · 148 categories

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63127190253 · Jun 202019922001200920172026
48 results for Benchmarking Archive

Introduces a new benchmark for time series extrinsic regression.

problem Predicting a single continuous value from univariate or multivariate time series, not necessarily related to the predictor.
method Developed a new benchmarking archive for time series extrinsic regression.
result Initial benchmarking of existing models on the new TSER datasets.

Temporal information impacts only a fraction of time series datasets, skewing benchmark evaluations.

problem Temporal information's impact on time series classification is often overestimated.
method Permutation tests on UCR archive to identify datasets where temporal info is irrelevant.
result Many tabular datasets perform well without temporal info, skewing benchmark evaluations.

Recent anomaly detection benchmarks are flawed, potentially misleading progress.

problem Flawed benchmark datasets create misleading progress reports.
method Identified four flaws in benchmark datasets and introduced a new archive.
result Published comparisons may be unreliable due to flaws in benchmark datasets.

The UCR Time Series Archive - introduced in 2002, has become an important resource in the time series data mining community, with at least one thousand published papers making use of at least one data set from the archive. The original incarnation of the archive had sixteen data sets but since that time, it has gone th…

2018-10-17abs ↗pdf ↗

In 2002, the UCR time series classification archive was first released with sixteen datasets. It gradually expanded, until 2015 when it increased in size from 45 datasets to 85 datasets. In October 2018 more datasets were added, bringing the total to 128. The new archive contains a wide range of problems, including var…

2018-10-31abs ↗pdf ↗

Time series are series of values ordered by time. This kind of data can be found in many real world settings. Classifying time series is a difficult task and an active area of research. This paper investigates the use of transfer learning in Deep Neural Networks and a 2D representation of time series known as Recurrenc…

2019-09-19abs ↗pdf ↗

New study on time series anomaly detection shows overlapping inference improves performance.

problem Heterogeneous evaluation practices and inference procedures in time series anomaly detection.
method Unified training, tuning, and evaluation protocol on TSB-AD benchmark, analyzing overlapping vs. disjoint inference.
result Overlapping inference yields consistent improvements, with average relative gain up to +28%.

An emended and improved version of the present paper has been archived in math-ph/0505057, and a preliminary account of its content has been published in Phys.Rev.Lett. 92, 60601, (2004). Moreover, in order to prove the relevance of topology for phase transition phenomena in a broad domain of physically interesting cas…

2003-05-15abs ↗pdf ↗

Data-driven approaches, most prominently deep learning, have become powerful tools for prediction in many domains. A natural question to ask is whether data-driven methods could also be used to predict global weather patterns days in advance. First studies show promise but the lack of a common dataset and evaluation me…

2020-02-02abs ↗pdf ↗

Transfer learning for deep neural networks is the process of first training a base network on a source dataset, and then transferring the learned features (the network's weights) to a second network to be trained on a target dataset. This idea has been shown to improve deep neural network's generalization capabilities …

2018-11-05abs ↗pdf ↗

Deep neural networks have revolutionized many fields such as computer vision and natural language processing. Inspired by this recent success, deep learning started to show promising results for Time Series Classification (TSC). However, neural networks are still behind the state-of-the-art TSC algorithms, that are cur…

2019-03-15abs ↗pdf ↗

We give a description of the automorphism group of a Rauzy diagram as a subgroup of the symmetric group. This is based on an example that appear in some personnal notes of Yoccoz that are to be published in the project ''Yoccoz archives''.

2020-02-17abs ↗pdf ↗

VOLARE provides standardized realized volatility measures from financial data.

problem Lack of standardized realized volatility measures from ultra-high-frequency data.
method Asset-specific pipeline for cleaning and sampling data, providing a wide range of realized estimators.
result Comprehensive set of realized estimators for equities, exchange rates, and futures.

RED CoMETS improves multivariate time series classification accuracy.

problem Complexity of multivariate time series classification.
method Ensemble classifier RED CoMETS for symbolically represented multivariate time series.
result RED CoMETS achieves highest reported accuracy on 'HandMovementDirection' dataset.

LLM forecasting benchmarks suffer from information leakage, which confounds model performance.

problem LLM forecasting benchmarks suffer from information leakage.
method A retrieval-augmented LLM forecaster observes only decision-time information.
result The full pipeline obtains a median monthly Spearman rank IC of +0.154.

New metrics fail adversarial tests, with some more robust than others.

problem Evaluation metrics for time-series anomaly detection were improved but not fully robust.
method Adversarial stress-testing of 12 adopted metrics on real benchmarks.
result Some metrics are more robust than others, with ROC-based metrics being gamed more often.

Adaptive weighting schemes enhance time-series data augmentation for financial and UCR datasets.

problem Limited size of time-series datasets hinders model performance.
method Two adaptive weighting schemes for automatic data augmentation.
result Improves annualized returns by over 50% on financial dataset and outperforms state-of-the-art on half of UCR datasets.

New TSER algorithms outperform existing methods in time series extrinsic regression.

problem Improving time series extrinsic regression models.
method Extended TSER archive, introduced two new algorithms (FreshPRINCE and DrCIF), compared with rotation forest.
result DrCIF and FreshPRINCE models significantly outperform existing methods.

Scientific discovery is limited by hypothesis redundancy, and hybrid methods can exploit non-local exploration.

problem Limitation of scientific discovery due to hypothesis redundancy.
method Hybrid discovery systems combining structured local search with LLM-generated non-local proposals.
result Hybrid methods can exploit non-local exploration when three geometric conditions co-occur.

Remote Sensing Images from satellites have been used in various domains for detecting and understanding structures on the ground surface. In this work, satellite images were used for localizing parking spaces and vehicles in parking lots for a given parcel using an RCNN based Neural Network Architectures. Parcel shapef…

2019-08-28abs ↗pdf ↗

Time Series Classification (TSC) is an important and challenging problem in data mining. With the increase of time series data availability, hundreds of TSC algorithms have been proposed. Among these methods, only a few have considered Deep Neural Networks (DNNs) to perform this task. This is surprising as deep learnin…

2018-09-12abs ↗pdf ↗

BEACON optimizes discovery by efficiently finding novel behaviors.

problem Discovering diverse system behaviors without a scalar objective.
method Bayesian optimization inspired strategy using multi-output Gaussian processes.
result BEACON discovers broader sets of distinct behaviors than competing methods.

New model uses pretrained biochemical language models to generate drug compounds.

problem Developing novel compounds targeting specific proteins.
method Exploits pretrained language models to initialize and fine-tune targeted molecule generation models.
result Warm-started models outperform baseline models, with one-stage strategy showing better generalization.

A new method extracts features from time series data using iterated sums and improves classification accuracy.

problem Time series classification challenges.
method Feature extraction using iterated-sums signature (ISS) followed by a linear classifier.
result Competitive with state-of-the-art methods on UCR archive.

This article follow the article {http://hal.archives-ouvertes.fr/hal-00361030/fr/} in which the author characterize the fact of being of finite volume for a convex projective surface. We show here that the moduli space βf(Σg,p)β_f(Σ_{g,p}) of the convex projective structure on the surface Σg,pΣ_{g,p} of genius gg with pp pun…

2009-10-30abs ↗pdf ↗

We present seven myths commonly believed to be true in machine learning research, circa Feb 2019. This is an archival copy of the blog post at https://crazyoscarchang.github.io/2019/02/16/seven-myths-in-machine-learning-research/ Myth 1: TensorFlow is a Tensor manipulation library Myth 2: Image datasets are representat…

2019-02-18abs ↗pdf ↗

Better stock market predictions can be made by simpler topic models.

problem Improving stock market prediction accuracy using news articles.
method Empirical and theoretical analysis of supervised and plain LDA models, with a focus on Gibbs sampling and random search.
result Simpler topic models (plain LDA) outperform more complex models (sLDA) in out-of-sample performance.

Study of Polymarket's prediction market microstructure using tick-level order book data.

problem Understanding the microstructure of decentralized prediction markets.
method Analysis of a continuous tick-level order book feed and on-chain trade records.
result Trade direction inferred from Polymarket's public order-book feed disagrees with on-chain data in ~59% of cases.

Deep neural networks (DNNs) have achieved state-of-the-art results on time series classification (TSC) tasks. In this work, we focus on leveraging DNNs in the often-encountered practical scenario where access to labeled training data is difficult, and where DNNs would be prone to overfitting. We leverage recent advance…

2019-09-13abs ↗pdf ↗

This study reviews decentralized prediction markets, identifying key design variants and open problems.

problem Designing and implementing decentralized prediction markets with desirable properties.
method Modular workflow comprising eight stages: infrastructure, market topic, share structure, pricing, market initialization, trading, resolution, settlement, and archiving. Analysis of design variants and trade-offs.
result Identification of open problems for researchers in the field of decentralized prediction markets.