BARK optimizes black-box functions using Bayesian Additive Regression Trees.
problem Bayesian optimization of complex, black-box functions with uncertainty quantification.
method BART Kernel using tree agreement for posterior over piecewise-constant functions, explored using MCMC.
result BARK obtains samples of Gaussian processes for function distributions, enabling acquisition functions for optimization.
SBT model uses randomized sharding and sub-models to improve Bayesian Additive Regression Trees.
problem Improving efficiency and accuracy of Bayesian Additive Regression Trees.
method Randomized sharding, sub-models, intersection tree structure, optimal design.
result Theoretical optimal weights and worst-case complexity of SBT model.
The study analyzes when Bayesian averaging over decision trees is reliable.
problem When do Bayesian model averaging weights over decision trees provide reliable information?
method Closed-form solution for Bayesian decision trees with Catalan-exponential priors.
result Established a complete non-asymptotic theory of rational commitment thresholds.
This paper improves Bayesian decision tree learning using HMC.
problem Bayesian decision tree learning is challenging due to a large parameter space.
method Develops and compares HMC-based algorithms for exploring Bayesian decision tree posteriors.
result HMC-based methods outperform existing methods in predictive accuracy and tree complexity.
Bayesian Decision Trees are known for their probabilistic interpretability. However, their construction can sometimes be costly. In this article we present a general Bayesian Decision Tree algorithm applicable to both regression and classification problems. The algorithm does not apply Markov Chain Monte Carlo and does…
New algorithms learn simple staged trees from data, improving model fit.
problem Complex conditional independences in categorical data vectors.
method Structural learning algorithms for simple staged trees, coalescing the underlying tree.
result Data-learned simple staged trees often outperform Bayesian networks in model fit.
Bayesian GBMs improve predictive uncertainty calibration for tabular data.
problem Lack of well-calibrated predictive uncertainties in gradient boosting machines.
method Variational inference with soft decision trees.
result Variational soft GBMs provide useful uncertainty estimates and maintain good predictive performance.
Oblique BART improves tree-based predictions.
problem Axis-aligned decision rules in BART can be suboptimal.
method Developed an oblique version of BART using data-adaptive hyperplane partitions.
result Oblique BART outperformed axis-aligned BART and other tree methods on benchmarks.
Adaptive Bayesian model for covariate-dependent power spectra analysis.
problem Estimating complex relationships and interactions between covariates and power spectra.
method Bayesian sum of trees model with local power spectrum estimation and reversible-jump MCMC for tree modifications.
result The method can accurately recover both smooth and abrupt changes in power spectra across multiple covariates.
Bayesian learning for forests and trees improves graph detection and structure learning.
problem Learning graph structures in non-decomposable graphs.
method Adapted MCMC and SSS algorithms for forests and trees, using the Chow-Liu algorithm and Matrix Tree Theorem.
result SSS with trees or forests outperforms SSS with decomposable graphs in certain cases.
We propose a novel "tree-averaging" model that utilizes the ensemble of classification and regression trees (CART). Each constituent tree is estimated with a subset of similar data. We treat this grouping of subsets as Bayesian ensemble trees (BET) and model them as an infinite mixture Dirichlet process. We show that B…
GP-BART improves BART's predictive performance by incorporating Gaussian process priors.
problem Lack of smoothness and explicit covariance structure in BART.
method GP-BART extends BART with Gaussian process priors for tree predictions.
result GP-BART outperforms traditional models in various applications.
Bayesian supertrees method uses variational Bayes for overlapping taxon subsets.
problem Inference of phylogenetic tree topologies for overlapping taxon sets.
method Variational Bayesian approach.
result Demonstrates effectiveness of variational Bayes for Bayesian supertrees.
GPU-accelerated BART speeds up Bayesian regression.
problem Long running time of BART makes it impractical for large datasets.
method GPU-enabled implementation of BART.
result BART is now 200x faster on GPUs.
Paper improves tree probability estimation using stochastic optimization and variance reduction.
problem Improving tree probability estimation in phylogenetic inference.
method Introduces computationally efficient methods for training SBNs and variance reduction for optimization.
result Methods outperform previous baseline methods in tree topology probability estimation and Bayesian phylogenetic inference.
A hybrid model for Bayesian optimization handles mixed variables using MCTS for categorical and GP for continuous.
problem Optimizing functions with mixed variable types (continuous, integer, categorical).
method Merges MCTS for categorical and GP for continuous variables, integrates UCTS search strategy, and dynamically selects kernels.
result Hybrid models outperform traditional methods in Bayesian optimization.
Paper introduces XBART for nonlinear regression, outperforming XGBoost.
problem Nonlinear regression problems, especially in speed and accuracy.
method Combines Bayesian modeling and recursive partitioning for efficient, accurate predictions.
result XBART provides faster and more accurate predictions than XGBoost.
Decision trees are flexible models that are well suited for many statistical regression problems. In a Bayesian framework for regression trees, Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) search algorithms are required to generate samples of tree models according to their posterior probabilities. The critical component of such an …
Bayesian optimization improves Monte-Carlo tree search for better state value estimation.
problem Slow convergence in Monte-Carlo tree search due to averaging in backpropagation.
method Softmax MCTS and Monotone MCTS, using Bayesian optimization with Gaussian process prior.
result Our framework outperforms previous methods in computer Go.
BART and MOTR-BART improve tree-based predictions with local linear models.
problem Non-linearity and high-order interactions in data.
method Bayesian Additive Regression Trees (BART) and Model Trees BART (MOTR-BART) using piecewise linear functions.
result MOTR-BART achieves equal or better performance with fewer trees than BART.
Paper proposes a VB method for TS-SBP mixture models with reduced computational cost.
problem Efficiently learning tree-structured stick-breaking process mixture models.
method Utilizes Bayes coding algorithm for context tree models to calculate sums over all possible trees.
result Proposes a learning algorithm with less computational cost for TS-SBP mixture of Gaussians.
New method estimates root-directed tree from extreme data.
problem Discovering causality in river networks from extreme flow data.
method Qualitative max-linear Bayesian network approach to estimate bivariate scores and root-directed spanning tree.
result The new estimator is consistent under max-linear Bayesian network model with noise.
In this paper we present decomposable priors, a family of priors over structure and parameters of tree belief nets for which Bayesian learning with complete observations is tractable, in the sense that the posterior is also decomposable and can be completely determined analytically in polynomial time. This follows from…
Functional BART adds shape priors to Bayesian tree regression for better curve fitting.
problem Regression with function-on-scalar data and shape constraints.
method Bayesian tree structure with spline representations, customized Bayesian backfitting algorithm, shape priors.
result Improved estimation and prediction accuracy with shape priors.
This work improves mixing rates for Bayesian CART, a key component of BART.
problem Understanding and improving mixing rates for Bayesian inference with MCMC.
method Derived upper bounds on mixing times, provided sufficient conditions for polynomial mixing, and proposed Twiggy Bayesian CART.
result Twiggy Bayesian CART achieves polynomial mixing without assuming signal connectivity.
Ensemble of regression trees have become popular statistical tools for the estimation of conditional mean given a set of predictors. However, quantile regression trees and their ensembles have not yet garnered much attention despite the increasing popularity of the linear quantile regression model. This work proposes a…
This study converts BART to Gaussian process regression, revealing its limitations and potential improvements.
problem Understanding the Gaussian process limit of BART and its implications.
method Deriving and computing BART's prior covariance function, implementing the infinite trees limit as GP regression, and tuning hyperparameters.
result The Gaussian process limit of BART is inferior to standard BART but can be made competitive with proper hyperparameter tuning.
Additive regression trees are flexible non-parametric models and popular off-the-shelf tools for real-world non-linear regression. In application domains, such as bioinformatics, where there is also demand for probabilistic predictions with measures of uncertainty, the Bayesian additive regression trees (BART) model, i…
The paper introduces a new model to correct bias in treatment effect estimates due to sample selection.
problem Bias in treatment effect estimates due to sample selection.
method Type 2 Tobit Bayesian Additive Regression Trees (TOBART-2) with Dirichlet Process Mixture distribution and soft trees.
result Corrects bias in treatment effect estimates by accounting for nonlinearities and model uncertainty.
Tree ensembles, such as random forests and boosted trees, are renowned for their high prediction performance. However, their interpretability is critically limited due to the enormous complexity. In this study, we present a method to make a complex tree ensemble interpretable by simplifying the model. Specifically, we …
Bayesian framework uses context trees for efficient time series modeling.
problem Building flexible and interpretable mixture models for real-valued time series.
method Hierarchical Bayesian modelling with context trees and autoregressive models.
result The methods outperform state-of-the-art techniques on simulated and real-world experiments.
This article proposes Multinomial Probit Bayesian Additive Regression Trees (MPBART) as a multinomial probit extension of BART - Bayesian Additive Regression Trees (Chipman et al (2010)). MPBART is flexible to allow inclusion of predictors that describe the observed units as well as the available choice alternatives. T…
BFTS uses Bayesian Additive Regression Trees for improved personalized mobile health interventions.
problem Adapting to complex, non-linear user behaviors in personalized mobile health interventions.
method Bayesian Forest Thompson Sampling (BFTS) integrates Bayesian Additive Regression Trees (BART) into the exploration loop of contextual bandits.
result BFTS achieves state-of-the-art regret on tabular benchmarks and improves engagement rates by over 30% in a behavioral intervention study.
A new framework for efficient Bayesian network inference.
problem High-dimensional Bayesian networks are hard to infer due to computational scaling.
method Directed convex subgraphs and minimal d-decomposition tree for decomposition, enabling parallel computation.
result The method reduces computational cost and enables parallel computation.
Bayesian context trees capture complex dependencies in categorical sequences.
problem Complex, long-range dependencies in categorical sequences are not well captured by simple models.
method Parsimonious Bayesian context trees with model-based agglomerative clustering for efficient inference.
result The proposed framework outperforms existing models on real-world data.
Monte-Carlo Tree Search (MCTS) methods are drawing great interest after yielding breakthrough results in computer Go. This paper proposes a Bayesian approach to MCTS that is inspired by distributionfree approaches such as UCT [13], yet significantly differs in important respects. The Bayesian framework allows potential…
Bayesian networks are simplified for categorical variables using staged trees and asymmetry-labeled DAGs.
problem Representing non-symmetric conditional independences in Bayesian networks.
method Formalized relationship between Bayesian networks and staged trees, introduced asymmetry-labeled DAGs, and developed an algorithm to learn staged trees.
result A novel algorithm for learning staged trees that captures non-symmetric independences.
Decision tree learning is a popular approach for classification and regression in machine learning and statistics, and Bayesian formulations---which introduce a prior distribution over decision trees, and formulate learning as posterior inference given data---have been shown to produce competitive performance. Unlike c…
Bayesian Additive Distribution Regression (DistBART) predicts distributions from grouped data.
problem Predicting distributions from grouped data with varying characteristics.
method Bayesian nonparametric approach using BART for modeling the regression function.
result Empirical and theoretical evidence supports DistBART's effectiveness in learning from low-dimensional marginals.
Bayesian CART models improve insurance claims frequency prediction and interpretation.
problem Improving accuracy and interpretability in insurance pricing models.
method Introducing Bayesian CART models for claims frequency, implementing MCMC algorithm for posterior tree exploration, and using DIC for model selection.
result Bayesian CART models can better classify policy-holders into risk groups.
Bayesian model estimates treatment effects near cutoffs in regression discontinuity designs.
problem Estimating conditional average treatment effects in regression discontinuity designs.
method Develops a Bayesian additive regression tree (BART) model with linear leaf-level regressions.
result Adapts to different slopes on the running variable near the cutoff, providing interpretable inference.
Improved Bayesian optimization for conditional parameter spaces.
problem Efficient global optimization of expensive-to-evaluate functions in conditional parameter spaces.
method Additive tree-structured covariance function for conditional parameter optimization.
result Significantly improved sample-efficiency and wider applicability compared to existing methods.
GBEST model improves survival analysis for small datasets.
problem Challenges in survival analysis, especially with small data.
method Bayesian bootstrap and Beta Stacy bootstrap methods integrated into bagging tree models.
result GBEST model outperforms classical survival models in predictive performance and stability.
flexBART improves BART for categorical predictors by creating flexible tree partitions.
problem Limitation of BART in handling categorical predictors with one-hot encoding.
method flexBART re-implements BART with regression trees that can assign multiple levels to both branches of a decision tree node, and proposes a new decision rule prior for spatial data.
result flexBART often yields improved predictive performance and scales better to larger datasets than existing BART implementations.
This paper solves the open problem of computing Bayes optimal prediction for decision trees using a Markov chain Monte Carlo method.
problem Computing the Bayes optimal prediction for decision trees is infeasible due to an infeasible summation over all division patterns of a feature space.
method Solved the open problem using a Markov chain Monte Carlo method with adaptively tuned step size.
result Computed the Bayes optimal prediction for decision trees using a Markov chain Monte Carlo method.
Hierarchical structure is ubiquitous in data across many domains. There are many hierarchical clustering methods, frequently used by domain experts, which strive to discover this structure. However, most of these methods limit discoverable hierarchies to those with binary branching structure. This limitation, while com…
We consider the inference of the structure of an undirected graphical model in an exact Bayesian framework. More specifically we aim at achieving the inference with close-form posteriors, avoiding any sampling step. This task would be intractable without any restriction on the considered graphs, so we limit our explora…
We present a new package in R implementing Bayesian additive regression trees (BART). The package introduces many new features for data analysis using BART such as variable selection, interaction detection, model diagnostic plots, incorporation of missing data and the ability to save trees for future prediction. It is …