Bayesian models improve cryptocurrency forecasting accuracy.
problem Improving cryptocurrency forecasting accuracy using Bayesian models.
method Compared Bayesian models with constant and time-varying volatility, including stochastic volatility and GARCH models.
result Stochastic volatility significantly outperforms VAR in both point and density forecasting.
Bayesian model for stochastic volatility in time series.
problem Modeling time series with varying volatility.
method Fully Bayesian approach using MCMC samplers.
result Effective tool for predicting future volatilities.
Stochastic Volatility in Mean models with heavy-tailed distributions using Hidden Markov Models
problem Accurate inference for Stochastic Volatility in Mean models with heavy-tailed distributions
method Numerically stable estimation procedure and parallel computing
result Significant reduction in computational times
GPU accelerates Bayesian inference of RSV model up to 17x faster.
problem Bayesian inference of realized stochastic volatility model.
method Hybrid Monte Carlo (HMC) algorithm parallelized on GPU (GTX 760) and CPU (Intel i7-4770 3.4GHz).
result GPU can achieve up to 17 times faster computation compared to CPU.
New algorithms improve Bayesian inference for SV models with leverage.
problem Efficient Bayesian estimation of SV models with leverage.
method Derive novel algorithms for centered and non-centered parameterizations, combine samplers using ASIS.
result Stable sampling efficiency irrespective of parameterization.
Bayesian method estimates volatility from discrete data.
problem Estimating volatility from discrete time observations.
method Nonparametric Bayesian approach with IGMC prior on piecewise constant volatility.
result Good results in simulation and real-world applications.
Bayesian model predicts stock jumps from daily returns data.
problem Disentangling volatility and jumps in daily stock returns.
method Bayesian framework for stochastic volatility with Poisson jumps, extended to large panels using dynamic factor models.
result Joint modelling of jumps improves predictive ability of stochastic volatility models.
We present an adaptive approach for valuing the European call option on assets with stochastic volatility. The essential feature of the method is a reduction of uncertainty in latent volatility due to a Bayesian learning procedure. Starting from a discrete-time stochastic volatility model, we derive a recurrence equati…
Improved Bayesian analysis for SVM models using a mixture sampler.
problem Efficient simulation-based analysis of stochastic volatility in mean models.
method Developed a generalized mixture sampler for SVM models, approximating non-central chi-squared distributions as mixtures of normal distributions.
result The proposed method outperforms other volatility models based on marginal likelihoods in empirical studies.
The hybrid Monte Carlo algorithm (HMCA) is applied for Bayesian parameter estimation of the realized stochastic volatility (RSV) model. Using the 2nd order minimum norm integrator (2MNI) for the molecular dynamics (MD) simulation in the HMCA, we find that the 2MNI is more efficient than the conventional leapfrog integr…
This paper develops a Bayesian procedure for estimation and forecasting of the volatility of multivariate time series. The foundation of this work is the matrix-variate dynamic linear model, for the volatility of which we adopt a multiplicative stochastic evolution, using Wishart and singular multivariate beta distribu…
Adaptive Heston model calibration using PCRLB and switching filters.
problem Estimating volatility in stochastic volatility models like Heston.
method Bayesian filtering (EKF, UKF, PF) with PCRLB for parameter estimation.
result Adaptive estimation of Heston model parameters improves volatility estimation.
The stochastic volatility model is one of volatility models which infer latent volatility of asset returns. The Bayesian inference of the stochastic volatility (SV) model is performed by the hybrid Monte Carlo (HMC) algorithm which is superior to other Markov Chain Monte Carlo methods in sampling volatility variables. …
New method improves volatility forecasts by relaxing linear assumption in leverage effect.
problem Empirical evidence contradicts the leverage effect's ability to improve volatility forecasts.
method Developed a Bayesian stochastic volatility framework with nonlinear leverage effects.
result Nonlinear leverage effect improves predictive performance for 89% of stocks.
Research forecasts electricity spot prices using stochastic volatility models.
problem Forecasting day-ahead electricity prices in a spot market.
method Exploring and enriching a baseline stochastic volatility model with exogenous regressors.
result A better fitting model confirmed by out-of-sample forecasts.
Bayesian method learns volatility from noisy data.
problem Learning volatility from noisy market data.
method Nonparametric Bayesian approach with piecewise constant prior and Forward Filtering Backward Simulation algorithm.
result Good performance on synthetic and real data.
The hybrid Monte Carlo (HMC) algorithm is applied for the Bayesian inference of the stochastic volatility (SV) model. We use the HMC algorithm for the Markov chain Monte Carlo updates of volatility variables of the SV model. First we compute parameters of the SV model by using the artificial financial data and compare …
In this paper we develop a Bayesian procedure for estimating multivariate stochastic volatility (MSV) using state space models. A multiplicative model based on inverted Wishart and multivariate singular beta distributions is proposed for the evolution of the volatility, and a flexible sequential volatility updating is …
Unified approach to mortality modeling using state-space framework.
problem Dynamic mortality modeling and forecasting.
method State-space framework, alternative model identification constraints, Bayesian state-space models, particle Markov chain Monte Carlo methods.
result Enhanced models with improved model fit and forecasting properties.
Bayesian GED-Gamma model improves SV model for return data.
problem Intractable latent parameters in volatility models.
method Bayesian GED-Gamma SV model with marginal likelihood, non-linear Gaussian evolution.
result Proposed model can be reasonably estimated and provides better fit and prediction.
Generative Bayesian Filtering improves inference in complex models without explicit density evaluations.
problem Performing posterior inference in complex nonlinear and non-Gaussian state-space models.
method Generative Bayesian Filtering (GBF) extends GBC to dynamic settings using deep neural networks for recursive posterior inference. Generative-Gibbs sampler bypasses density evaluations for parameter learning.
result GBF significantly outperforms likelihood-free approaches in accuracy and robustness for intractable state-space models.
A new multivariate stochastic volatility estimation procedure for financial time series is proposed. A Wishart autoregressive process is considered for the volatility precision covariance matrix, for the estimation of which a two step procedure is adopted. The first step is the conditional inference on the autoregressi…
A Bayesian procedure is developed for multivariate stochastic volatility, using state space models. An autoregressive model for the log-returns is employed. We generalize the inverted Wishart distribution to allow for different correlation structure between the observation and state innovation vectors and we extend the…
R packages stochvol and factorstochvol simplify SV model estimation.
problem Efficient estimation of stochastic volatility models.
method Novel implementations of four SV models in R packages.
result Packages handle linear mean models, heavy-tailed SV, leverage, and multivariate SV.
Bayesian neural networks improve macroeconomic forecasting and model nonlinearities.
problem Handling small T, big K macroeconomic datasets with temporal dependence.
method Developed Bayesian neural networks with mixture activation functions, shrinkage priors, and stochastic volatility.
result BNNs produce precise density forecasts, often better than other methods.
We study a new parametric approach for particular hidden stochastic models such as the Stochastic Volatility model. This method is based on contrast minimization and deconvolution. After proving consistency and asymptotic normality of the estimation leading to asymptotic confidence intervals, we provide a thorough nume…
The hybrid Monte Carlo (HMC) algorithm is used for Bayesian analysis of the generalized autoregressive conditional heteroscedasticity (GARCH) model. The HMC algorithm is one of Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) algorithms and it updates all parameters at once. We demonstrate that how the HMC reproduces the GARCH paramete…
Stochastic volatility (SV) models mimic many of the stylized facts attributed to time series of asset returns, while maintaining conceptual simplicity. The commonly made assumption of conditionally normally distributed or Student-t-distributed returns, given the volatility, has however been questioned. In this manuscri…
We apply the hybrid Monte Carlo (HMC) algorithm to the financial time sires analysis of the stochastic volatility (SV) model for the first time. The HMC algorithm is used for the Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) update of volatility variables of the SV model in the Bayesian inference. We compute parameters of the SV mod…
Bayesian model reduces stock volatility by identifying key cointegrated relationships.
problem Constructing low volatility stock portfolios from a large number of stocks.
method High dimensional Bayesian cointegration estimation.
result Portfolios with reduced volatility and persistence of cointegration relationships.
This paper develops a stochastic learning-optimization model for resilient automotive supply chains.
problem Supply chain disruptions and volatile demand pose challenges to the UK automotive industry.
method Integrates Bayesian inference with inventory optimization for a two-echelon system subject to stochastic demand and disruptions.
result The integrated approach achieves significant cost reductions and improved resilience during disruptions.
The article reviews how to set stochastic volatility model parameters.
problem Choosing parameters for stochastic volatility models.
method Examines existing literature on various methods.
result Different approaches to setting stochastic volatility parameters.
Estimates Heston model with jumps in asset prices using Bayesian regression and particle filtering.
problem Estimating the Heston model with jumps in asset prices.
method Bayesian regression combined with particle filtering method to handle jumps.
result Improves the estimation of key parameters in the Heston model with jumps.
Bayesian method for dynamic correlation matrices improves accuracy and responsiveness.
problem Challenges in estimating time-varying correlation matrices, including slow adaptation, insufficient regularization, and diffuse uncertainty.
method Low-rank factor representation with dynamic shrinkage prior and multivariate factor stochastic volatility model.
result Improved accuracy and responsiveness compared to competing methods in various challenging scenarios.
Bayesian model improves asset price forecasting using realized volatility.
problem Improving asset price forecasting accuracy.
method Integrates dynamic gamma process with DLMs for price and realized volatility.
result Significant improvements in asset price forecasting compared to standard models.
Bayesian neural SDEs calibrate financial models robustly.
problem Calibrating financial models using neural SDEs for robustness.
method Bayesian framework with prior and likelihood, global approximation theorem, Langevin algorithm.
result Robust bounds on implied volatility surface learned from historical and option data.
The paper provides a formula for pricing volatility swaps with stochastic volatility, jumps, and stochastic intensity.
problem Valuation of volatility swaps in markets with stochastic volatility, jumps, and stochastic intensity.
method The paper uses the stochastic volatility model with jumps and stochastic intensity, and the Feynman-Kac theorem to derive a partial integral differential equation. Discrete and continuous sampled volatility swap pricing formulas are obtained using transform techniques.
result The paper delivers a pricing formula for volatility swaps under stochastic volatility with jumps and stochastic intensity.
We consider an asset whose risk-neutral dynamics are described by a general class of local-stochastic volatility models and derive a family of asymptotic expansions for European-style option prices and implied volatilities. Our implied volatility expansions are explicit; they do not require any special functions nor do…
This paper compares two extensions of the Heston model for option pricing.
problem Improving the accuracy of option pricing models.
method Empirical analysis and non-linear least square optimization of parameters.
result The multiscale stochastic volatility model outperforms the Heston model.
Paper quantifies how past stock returns inform about volatility and future returns.
problem Inferring volatility and future returns from past returns in stochastic volatility models.
method Quantifies mutual information between past and future stock returns and volatility.
result Past stock returns provide significant information about future volatility and returns.
Bayesian model detects sudden changes in stock market correlations during pandemic.
problem Capturing sudden structural changes in financial dependence during global events.
method Develops a Bayesian multivariate stochastic volatility model based on time-varying graphs.
result Captures abrupt changes in dependence structure across US stock portfolios.
Develops a martingale expansion for stochastic volatility models.
problem Approximating marginal distributions of stochastic volatility models.
method Martingale expansion framework for continuous stochastic volatility models.
result First-order perturbation expansions for small volatility-of-volatility and fast mean-reversion models.
The paper models VIX with jumps and stochastic volatility using VVIX as a proxy.
problem Capturing the dynamics of VIX with jumps and stochastic volatility.
method Double-jump stochastic volatility model with MCMC estimation.
result The jump in VIX and volatility factor are statistically significant.
In this paper we investigate general linear stochastic volatility models with correlated Brownian noises. In such models the asset price satisfies a linear SDE with coefficient of linearity being the volatility process. This class contains among others Black-Scholes model, a log-normal stochastic volatility model and H…
Entropy-minimal measure calculated for a stochastic volatility model.
problem Calculating the entropy-minimal equivalent martingale measure in a stochastic volatility model.
method Revised related theory, calculated entropy-minimal measure.
result Entropy-minimal measure for the exponential Ornstein-Uhlenbeck model.
We formulate and analyze an inverse problem using derivatives prices to obtain an implied filtering density on volatility's hidden state. Stochastic volatility is the unobserved state in a hidden Markov model (HMM) and can be tracked using Bayesian filtering. However, derivative data can be considered as conditional ex…
We define a copula process which describes the dependencies between arbitrarily many random variables independently of their marginal distributions. As an example, we develop a stochastic volatility model, Gaussian Copula Process Volatility (GCPV), to predict the latent standard deviations of a sequence of random varia…
The study improves equity return forecasts using shrinkage priors and heavy-tailed distributions.
problem Improving equity return forecasting accuracy using Bayesian econometric models.
method Flexible Bayesian state space model with global-local shrinkage priors and heavy-tailed innovations.
result Several variants of the proposed model outperform traditional methods in forecasting accuracy.