In this paper we introduce ZhuSuan, a python probabilistic programming library for Bayesian deep learning, which conjoins the complimentary advantages of Bayesian methods and deep learning. ZhuSuan is built upon Tensorflow. Unlike existing deep learning libraries, which are mainly designed for deterministic neural netw…
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48 results for “Bayesian probabilistic model”
Local Probabilistic Model for Bayesian Classification: a Generalized Local Classification Modelcs.LG
In Bayesian classification, it is important to establish a probabilistic model for each class for likelihood estimation. Most of the previous methods modeled the probability distribution in the whole sample space. However, real-world problems are usually too complex to model in the whole sample space; some fundamental …
Kernel Bayesian inference is a principled approach to nonparametric inference in probabilistic graphical models, where probabilistic relationships between variables are learned from data in a nonparametric manner. Various algorithms of kernel Bayesian inference have been developed by combining kernelized basic probabil…
Enhances Bayesian model comparison with a probabilistic framework for meta-uncertainty.
problem Uncertainty in posterior model probabilities (PMPs) when derived from finite data.
method Develops a fully probabilistic approach to quantify and represent meta-uncertainty over PMPs.
result Demonstrates utility in various BMC contexts, including regression, MCMC, and neural networks.
Probabilistic deep learning uses neural networks and models to handle uncertainty.
problem Handling uncertainty in deep learning models.
method Two approaches: probabilistic neural networks and deep probabilistic models.
result TensorFlow Probability library supports both approaches.
Bayesian Neural Network improves calibration of deep probabilistic models.
problem Uncalibrated probabilities from deep neural networks limit their use in critical scenarios.
method Decoupled Bayesian Neural Network to map uncalibrated probabilities to calibrated ones.
result Our approach consistently improves calibration and provides more reliable probabilistic models.
Bayesian approach models neurodegenerative diseases without clinical labels.
problem Personalized, predictive modeling of neurodegenerative diseases.
method Probabilistic programmed deep kernel learning combining Gaussian processes and neural networks.
result Surpasses deep learning in accuracy and timeliness of predicting neurodegeneration.
Hybrid Bayesian neural networks use function uncertainty for probabilistic inference.
problem Uncertainty in neural network weights is hard to specify and interpret.
method Integrates probabilistic layers with standard deterministic layers for function uncertainty.
result Improves probabilistic inference by encoding function uncertainty.
PNCs balance tractability and expressiveness in probabilistic modeling.
problem Balancing tractability and expressiveness in probabilistic models.
method Introduce probabilistic neural circuits (PNCs) as a mix of Bayesian networks and neural networks.
result PNCs are powerful function approximators.
Bayesian scores improve structure learning in probabilistic circuits.
problem Improper structure learning in probabilistic circuits based on heuristics.
method Developed Bayesian structure scores for deterministic PCs, using them in a greedy cutset algorithm.
result Effective protection against overfitting and fast, almost hyper-parameter-free structure learner.
Fast probabilistic option price predictions using modular Bayesian inference.
problem Accurate probabilistic predictions of future option prices.
method Modular approximate Bayesian inference framework that combines multiple data sources.
result Accurate probabilistic option-price predictions in realistic scenarios.
A new probabilistic BTD method for tensor data.
problem Modeling higher-order tensors with robust inference.
method Probabilistic Block-Term Decomposition using variational Bayesian inference and von-Mises Fisher distribution.
result The proposed pBTD can quantify multi-linear structures robustly.
DMVI uses diffusion models for efficient probabilistic inference in PPLs.
problem Efficient probabilistic inference in complex probabilistic programming languages.
method DMVI employs diffusion models as variational approximations to the posterior distribution, optimizing a bound on the marginal likelihood.
result DMVI produces more accurate posterior inferences than existing methods in PPLs with similar computational cost and less manual tuning.
d3p package enables efficient Bayesian inference with differential privacy.
problem Efficiently performing Bayesian inference under differential privacy constraints.
method Differentially private variational inference for flexible probabilistic models.
result Achieves significant speed-up in runtime for complex models.
Probabilistic Numeric SMC Sampling for Bayesian Nonlinear System Identification in Continuous Timestat.ML
This paper tackles Bayesian system identification with probabilistic numerical methods.
problem Accurately modeling nonlinear dynamic systems from noisy data.
method Probabilistic Sequential Monte Carlo (SMC) combined with probabilistic numerical integration.
result Efficient identification of latent states and system parameters from noisy measurements.
The idea of computer vision as the Bayesian inverse problem to computer graphics has a long history and an appealing elegance, but it has proved difficult to directly implement. Instead, most vision tasks are approached via complex bottom-up processing pipelines. Here we show that it is possible to write short, simple …
dynestyx: A library for probabilistic programming of dynamical systems
problem integrating state-space models into probabilistic programming languages
method a unified interface for specifying priors and performing inference
result principled uncertainty quantification for state and parameters
Bayesian approach for policy search in stochastic domains.
problem Policy search in stochastic domains.
method Nested probabilistic programs, Lightweight Metropolis-Hastings (LMH) adaptation.
result Similar quality policies learned with simpler algorithm.
Bayesian networks combine prior knowledge with data to learn causal relationships.
problem Learning causal relationships from data.
method Constructing Bayesian networks from prior knowledge and using statistical methods to improve models.
result Bayesian networks can handle missing data and learn causal relationships.
Automates model comparison in probabilistic programming.
problem Manual derivations for model comparison are error-prone and time-consuming.
method Message passing on a Forney-style factor graph with a custom mixture node.
result Automates Bayesian model averaging, selection, and combination.
PClean automates Bayesian data cleaning for specific datasets.
problem Bayesian inference for diverse and complex data cleaning.
method Domain-specific probabilistic programming language with custom models and inference.
result PClean programs outperform general-purpose PPLs in accuracy and runtime.
A new Bayesian MBRL method improves performance in robotics tasks.
problem Enhancing model-based reinforcement learning with uncertainty.
method Introduces variational inference MPC and probabilistic action ensembles with trajectory sampling (PaETS).
result Consistently improves performance on challenging locomotion tasks.
Bayesian symbolic regression automates model discovery from data.
problem Learning closed-form mathematical models from data using heuristic methods.
method Probabilistic approach to symbolic regression, connecting to information theory and statistical physics.
result Probabilistic approach provides model plausibility and performance guarantees.
In this paper, we propose a probabilistic optimization method, named probabilistic incremental proximal gradient (PIPG) method, by developing a probabilistic interpretation of the incremental proximal gradient algorithm. We explicitly model the update rules of the incremental proximal gradient method and develop a syst…
New neural network models speed up Bayesian multilevel modeling.
problem Complex computational challenges in Bayesian multilevel modeling.
method Probabilistic neural network architectures that leverage multilevel model factorization.
result Efficient posterior inference on unseen datasets with near-instant results.
This thesis improves deep sequence models by integrating probabilistic methods for uncertainty quantification.
problem Lack of uncertainty awareness in deep sequence models limits their deployment.
method Develops approximate Bayesian inference methods for Transformers and HiPPOs, leveraging inductive biases.
result Improves predictive and generative performance of deep sequence models by incorporating probabilistic structures.
Bayesian tensor factorization approximates a complex tree model.
problem Intractable size of state-transition matrix in Hidden Tree Markov Models.
method Tucker factorization of tensors for probabilistic interpretation.
result New model outperforms existing approximations on tree-structured data tasks.
PAC-Bayesian bounds for MLPs with cross entropy loss validated.
problem Generalization bounds for MLPs with cross entropy loss.
method Introduced probabilistic explanations and proved PAC-Bayesian bounds using ELBO.
result MLPs with cross entropy loss inherently guarantee PAC-Bayesian generalization bounds.
Improves Bayesian optimisation for engineering design problems with many variables.
problem Efficiently searching for global minima in high-dimensional design spaces.
method Integrates input and output data to identify a reduced latent subspace using probabilistic partial least squares.
result Significant improvements in convergence to the global minimum compared to existing methods.
We propose a new IRT model that directly factors test items without factor analysis.
problem Existing multidimensional IRT methods require factorization, which is posthoc and linear.
method We use a sparsity-promoting horseshoe prior to factorize items directly within the IRT model.
result Our model performs factorization directly and consistently selects the correct number of factors.
Paper proposes a probabilistic alignment method for domain adaptation.
problem Latent distribution mismatch and miscalibrated uncertainty in adapting large-scale models.
method Bayesian latent transport framework with PAC-Bayesian regularization.
result Reduction in latent manifold discrepancy and improved uncertainty calibration.
Bayesian inference of discrete component states in civil infrastructures using PGMs and GNNs.
problem Inferring discrete states of civil infrastructure components from measurable responses is an ill-posed inverse problem.
method The study proposes a novel Bayesian inversion paradigm based on Probabilistic Graphical Models (PGMs) and Graph Neural Networks (GNNs). PGMs are used to model the problem, with parameters learned from data and structural topology prior. Inference is accomplished by GNNs, and a graph property-based training strategy is developed.
result The proposed framework effectively solves the challenges of inferring the posterior PDF for discrete variables in high-dimensional problems.
A new framework speeds up Bayesian inference in probabilistic programs.
problem Efficient Bayesian inference in complex probabilistic programs.
method Embeds a sampler within a refined variational posterior approximation, using automatic differentiation for parameter tuning.
result Significantly speeds up mixing time and improves efficiency in various probabilistic program tasks.
In this paper, we propose a new method of Bayesian measurement for spectral deconvolution, which regresses spectral data into the sum of unimodal basis function such as Gaussian or Lorentzian functions. Bayesian measurement is a framework for considering not only the target physical model but also the measurement model…
Many modern data analysis problems involve inferences from streaming data. However, streaming data is not easily amenable to the standard probabilistic modeling approaches, which assume that we condition on finite data. We develop population variational Bayes, a new approach for using Bayesian modeling to analyze strea…
Quantum kernel improves probabilistic time series forecasting.
problem Quantifying uncertainty in probabilistic time series predictions.
method Integrates quantum kernel with Gaussian process regression.
result Quantum kernel enhances forecasting performance.
We describe Bayesian Layers, a module designed for fast experimentation with neural network uncertainty. It extends neural network libraries with drop-in replacements for common layers. This enables composition via a unified abstraction over deterministic and stochastic functions and allows for scalability via the unde…
Bayesian neural networks use temperature adjustments to improve predictive performance.
problem Lack of theoretical generalization guarantees for Bayesian neural networks.
method Temperature adjustments to balance likelihood and prior regularization.
result Improved predictive performance through temperature adjustments.
Bayesian methods can handle causal inference without needing do-calculus.
problem The challenge of representing and addressing causal problems using probability theory.
method Bayesian statistics and probabilistic graphical models.
result Causal effects can be estimated within the standard Bayesian paradigm.
Bayesian method corrects for model selection multiplicity in regression.
problem Model selection multiplicity in regression analysis.
method Developed a Bayesian prior distribution based on Holm procedure analogy.
result Adequate multiplicity correction requires sparsity not provided by recommended priors.
A new method for Bayesian neural networks using probabilistic backpropagation.
problem Approximating posterior distributions in Bayesian neural networks.
method Variational Expectation Propagation (VEP) with probabilistic backpropagation.
result Efficient algorithm for approximate integration over posterior distributions.
Bayesian quadrature uses probabilistic models for estimating intractable integrals.
problem Estimating intractable integrals in complex models.
method Probabilistic, model-based approach using Gaussian processes.
result Comprehensive review and systematic taxonomy of Bayesian quadrature methods.
This paper optimizes kernel and acquisition functions for high-dimensional Bayesian Optimization.
problem Bayesian Optimization struggles with high-dimensional problems due to computational inefficiency.
method The paper leverages the additionality of the objective function to map kernel and acquisition functions in lower-dimensional subspaces, improving efficiency.
result Efficient optimization of acquisition function in high-dimensional problems.
Bayesian approach infers signaling pathways from data.
problem Accurately understand cellular regulation processes.
method Dynamic Bayesian Network structure estimation using Markov Chain Monte Carlo.
result Efficient sampling of sparse graphs improves inference.
A new method for efficient probabilistic meta-learning.
problem High-quality predictions with well-calibrated uncertainty estimates require large amounts of data.
method Amortised Inference in Bayesian Neural Networks (APOVI-BNN)
result The APOVI-BNN produces high-quality predictions with well-calibrated uncertainty estimates using significantly less data.
A Quadrature Approach for General-Purpose Batch Bayesian Optimization via Probabilistic Liftingcs.LG
SOBER framework optimizes Bayesian optimization tasks efficiently.
problem Challenges in parallel Bayesian optimization.
method Probabilistic Lifting with Kernel Quadrature.
result Versatile and flexible batch Bayesian optimization.
A method for selecting data for short-term load forecasting using Bayesian probabilistic models.
problem Lack of effective data selection techniques in power load forecasting.
method A fully automatic methodology based on a full Bayesian probabilistic model.
result The method improves the performance of load forecast models using real data.
BLISS detects and separates astronomical sources quickly and accurately.
problem Detecting and separating overlapping astronomical sources in large images.
method Bayesian Light Source Separator (BLISS) using deep generative models and variational inference.
result BLISS can process megapixel images in seconds and produce highly accurate catalogs.