Bayesian deep learning improves neural network accuracy and generalization.
problem Improving accuracy and calibration of deep neural networks.
method Bayesian marginalization and deep ensembles to approximate marginalization, and tempering for calibrating predictive distributions.
result Bayesian approaches improve deep neural networks' accuracy and generalization.
Bayesian analysis shows unlabeled data improve graph-based semi-supervised learning.
problem Improving semi-supervised learning with limited labeled data.
method Bayesian nonparametric approach using unlabeled data for graph-based learning.
result Posterior contracts optimally around the truth with sufficient unlabeled data.
A tutorial on variational inference for high-dimensional models.
problem Approximating marginal likelihood and posterior in Bayesian models.
method Parametric approach to variational inference.
result Variational inference is now preferred for high-dimensional models and large datasets.
Unified perspective unites Bayesian optimization and active learning for efficient goal-oriented optimization.
problem Efficiently optimize expensive engineering and scientific problems with limited data.
method Unified framework linking Bayesian infill criteria and active learning criteria.
result Unified approach formalizes Bayesian infill criteria and active learning criteria.
Unified framework for Gaussian process methods in differential equations.
problem Fragmented approaches to Gaussian process methods in differential equations.
method Unified Bayesian perspective integrating differential equation constraints.
result Consolidation of existing methods and foundation for future research.
Paper presents a Bayesian-decision-theory framework for long-tailed classification.
problem Heavy imbalance and asymmetric misprediction costs in long-tailed datasets.
method Bayesian-decision-theory perspective, unifying re-balancing and ensemble methods.
result Improves accuracy for all classes, especially tails, with provably optimal decisions.
We study the issue of PAC-Bayesian domain adaptation: We want to learn, from a source domain, a majority vote model dedicated to a target one. Our theoretical contribution brings a new perspective by deriving an upper-bound on the target risk where the distributions' divergence---expressed as a ratio---controls the tra…
Generative AI can solve in-context learning problems using a martingale perspective.
problem Estimating when a conditional generative model can solve an in-context learning problem.
method Bayesian interpretation, ancestral sampling, generative predictive p-value.
result Developed a method to assess the suitability of CGMs for ICL problems using generative predictive p-values.
Develops Bayesian approach for end-to-end learning in stochastic optimization.
problem Stochastic optimization problems under uncertainty.
method Bayesian interpretation and new end-to-end learning algorithms.
result Improved decision maps for empirical risk minimization and distributionally robust optimization.
Bayesian deep learning counts crowds robustly despite occlusions and scale variations.
problem Accurately counting individuals in crowded scenes with occlusions and varying sizes.
method Proposes a Bayesian multi-scale neural network with a ResNet feature extractor, dilated convolutions, and a Perspective-aware Aggregation Module.
result Achieves superior performance on crowd counting benchmarks with uncertainty estimates.
Bayesian approach improves ε-greedy exploration in RL.
problem Improving ε-greedy exploration in model-free RL. method Introducing a Bayesian model update for ε based on BMC. result Proposed ε- exttt{BMC} algorithm efficiently balances exploration and exploitation. Deep learning is a form of machine learning for nonlinear high dimensional pattern matching and prediction. By taking a Bayesian probabilistic perspective, we provide a number of insights into more efficient algorithms for optimisation and hyper-parameter tuning. Traditional high-dimensional data reduction techniques, …
Bayesian uncertainty quantification is flawed, according to new research.
problem Flawed interpretation of Bayesian uncertainty quantification.
method Discussion of Bayesian updating and optimization-based perspective, proposing measures of quality.
result Bayesian uncertainty quantification is not coherent with optimization-based perspective.
Bayesian analysis reveals epistemic uncertainty as a key diagnostic for delayed generalization in in-context learning.
problem Delayed generalization in in-context learning from few examples.
method Bayesian perspective, modular arithmetic tasks, approximate Bayesian techniques, spectral mechanism analysis.
result Epistemic uncertainty collapses sharply when the model groks, indicating a practical diagnostic of generalization.
Local mass perspective on Bayesian inference
problem Measuring distributional discrepancy in Bayesian inference
method Introducing Mass Index and Regularised Extended KL
result Proving inequalities for comparing local small-ball masses
Bayesian coresets improve scalable Bayesian inference.
problem Efficiently approximating posterior inference with a subset of data.
method Sparsity constrained optimization and accelerated optimization methods.
result Explicit convergence rate guarantees and superior performance compared to state-of-the-art.
Bayesian model selection of vine copulas: a loss-based perspective
problem Efficient model selection and estimation in Bayesian vine methodology
method Combines loss-based model priors with shotgun stochastic search strategy
result Promotes sparsity and enables fast and effective structure selection
Bayesian interpretation of deep ensembles improves uncertainty quantification.
problem Improving uncertainty estimation in deep learning models.
method Viewing deep ensembles as an approximate Bayesian method and specifying corresponding assumptions.
result Improved approximation leads to larger epistemic uncertainty, potentially more reliable predictions.
Bayesian methods improve adversarial machine learning robustness.
problem Improving machine learning systems' security against adversarial manipulation.
method Integrating Bayesian perspectives to relax unrealistic assumptions in game-theoretic models.
result Bayesian approach provides more robust inferences about opponent's beliefs and interests.
Survey of TPPs from Bayesian, neural, and LLM perspectives.
problem Modeling event sequences in continuous time.
method Bayesian, neural, and LLM approaches.
result Advances in LLMs offer new possibilities for TPP modeling.
Novel active learning framework using sparse approximation for efficient model training.
problem Efficient model training with limited labeled data.
method Formulates batch active learning as sparsity-constrained discontinuous optimization problems, using greedy or proximal iterative hard thresholding algorithms.
result Achieves competitive performance with lower computational complexity across different settings.
This paper connects RND, deep ensembles, and Bayesian inference, providing a unified theoretical perspective.
problem Uncertainty quantification in deep learning models.
method Analysis of Random Network Distillation (RND) within the neural tangent kernel framework.
result The uncertainty signal from RND is equivalent to the predictive variance of a deep ensemble and can be made to mirror the centered posterior predictive distribution of Bayesian inference.
Paper introduces a fast, robust, scalable method for detecting changes in data streams.
problem Detecting changes in data streams efficiently and reliably.
method Bayesian online changepoint detection with provable robustness and scalability.
result The proposed method is more than 10 times faster than previous approaches and provides provable robustness.
We consider the problem of how decision making can be fair when the underlying probabilistic model of the world is not known with certainty. We argue that recent notions of fairness in machine learning need to explicitly incorporate parameter uncertainty, hence we introduce the notion of {\em Bayesian fairness} as a su…
Bayesian model improves classification performance with flexible uncertainty modeling.
problem Improving classification performance with flexible uncertainty modeling.
method Combines Gaussian process and Dirichlet process priors for latent function and link function, respectively.
result Outperforms standard logistic regression on simulated data.
The thesis presents a new perspective on high-dimensional optimization.
problem The failure point of classical optimization methods in high dimensions.
method A distributional view of optimization, focusing on random objective functions and Bayesian Optimization.
result The distributional view explains predictable progress in high-dimensional optimization and provides insights into optimal step size control.
This article introduces a Bayesian nonparametric method for quantifying the relative evidence in a dataset in favour of the dependence or independence of two variables conditional on a third. The approach uses Polya tree priors on spaces of conditional probability densities, accounting for uncertainty in the form of th…
We address challenges in collaborative black-box optimization through three frameworks.
problem Challenges in distributed experimentation, heterogeneity, and privacy in black-box optimization.
method Three unifying frameworks: global, local, and predictive.
result Shift from descriptive/predictive to prescriptive federated learning in black-box optimization.
This paper develops a non-Bayesian methodology to analyze the time-varying structure of international linkages and market efficiency in G7 countries. We consider a non-Bayesian time-varying vector autoregressive (TV-VAR) model, and apply it to estimate the joint degree of market efficiency in the sense of Fama (1970, 1…
Bayesian method improves quantile estimation and subset selection.
problem Estimating specific percentiles of the response distribution.
method Bayesian decision analysis perspective, optimal point estimates, interpretable uncertainty quantification, scalable subset selection.
result Substantial gains in quantile estimation accuracy, inference, and variable selection over competitors.
New approach improves multi-head attention by making heads less similar.
problem Multi-head attention can lead to similar features, reducing model expressiveness.
method Proposes a non-parametric approach using Bayesian techniques to make heads repel each other.
result Improves feature diversity, leading to better representations and performance.
Bayesian SSI improves modal parameter uncertainty in operational systems.
problem Uncertainty in modal parameters due to stochastic operational systems and lack of forcing information.
method Proposes a Bayesian stochastic subspace identification (SSI) algorithm with a hierarchical probabilistic model and two inference schemes (Markov Chain Monte Carlo and variational Bayes).
result Posterior distributions over modal properties are obtained, showing lower variance for mean values coinciding with natural frequencies.
Bayesian approach selects subsets of variables for interpretable prediction and identifies key factors in educational outcomes.
problem Challenges in subset selection for stability, regularization, and inference.
method Bayesian perspective on subset selection, deriving optimal subsets and variable importance metrics.
result Better prediction, interval estimation, and variable selection compared to competing methods.
In this paper, we consider Bayesian image denoising based on a Gaussian Markov random field (GMRF) model, for which we propose an new algorithm. Our method can solve Bayesian image denoising problems, including hyperparameter estimation, in O(n)-time, where n is the number of pixels in a given image. From the persp…
Develops BPDS for better financial portfolio decisions.
problem Model uncertainty in financial time series forecasting.
method Bayesian dynamic modelling and predictive decision synthesis.
result Improved predictive and decision outcomes compared to traditional Bayesian analysis.
Bayesian nonparametric models improve OOD detection, especially with complex covariance structures.
problem Improving out-of-distribution detection methods, especially in complex scenarios.
method Proposes Bayesian nonparametric mixture models with hierarchical priors that generalize the Mahalanobis distance score.
result Bayesian nonparametric methods outperform existing OOD methods, especially in complex scenarios.
Researchers use LLMs to judge other LLMs, but this study provides a new geometric perspective to understand when it works.
problem The challenge of evaluating LLMs using other LLMs as judges, considering both aleatoric and epistemic uncertainties.
method A geometric perspective on ranking LLM candidates using probability simplices, analyzing conditions for identifiable rankings and designing Bayesian priors.
result Geometric analysis reveals that rankings based on LLM judges are robust in many but not all datasets, emphasizing the importance of modeling epistemic uncertainty.
Bayesian quadrature improves conformal prediction for better risk assessment.
problem Improving risk assessment for machine learning models.
method Revisiting conformal prediction from a Bayesian perspective and proposing Bayesian quadrature.
result Provides interpretable guarantees and a richer representation of likely losses.
When I first encountered PAC-Bayesian concentration inequalities they seemed to me to be rather disconnected from good old-fashioned results like Hoeffding's and Bernstein's inequalities. But, at least for one flavour of the PAC-Bayesian bounds, there is actually a very close relation, and the main innovation is a cont…
This article provides a unifying Bayesian network view on various approaches for acoustic model adaptation, missing feature, and uncertainty decoding that are well-known in the literature of robust automatic speech recognition. The representatives of these classes can often be deduced from a Bayesian network that exten…
Kernel-based Bayesian filter for nonlinear systems using infinite-dimensional operators.
problem Modeling and predicting nonlinear dynamical systems.
method Functional Bayesian perspective, reproducing kernel Hilbert space, Gaussian kernel.
result Effective approximation and accurate results for nonlinear systems.
BARK optimizes black-box functions using Bayesian Additive Regression Trees.
problem Bayesian optimization of complex, black-box functions with uncertainty quantification.
method BART Kernel using tree agreement for posterior over piecewise-constant functions, explored using MCMC.
result BARK obtains samples of Gaussian processes for function distributions, enabling acquisition functions for optimization.
Bayesian Power Steering fine-tunes large diffusion models for domain adaptation.
problem Fine-tuning pre-trained diffusion models for tasks in a smaller probability space.
method Bayesian framework with a novel network structure (Bayesian Power Steering).
result Bayesian Power Steering achieves an FID score of 10.49 on the COCO17 dataset.
A classic approach for learning Bayesian networks from data is to identify a maximum a posteriori (MAP) network structure. In the case of discrete Bayesian networks, MAP networks are selected by maximising one of several possible Bayesian Dirichlet (BD) scores; the most famous is the Bayesian Dirichlet equivalent unifo…
Bayesian approach improves AdaLoRA's performance and efficiency.
problem Improving the efficiency and performance of adaptive low-rank adaptation.
method Utilized Bayesian metrics and the Improved Variational Online Newton (IVON) optimizer for adaptive parameter budget allocation.
result Bayesian counterpart outperforms sensitivity-based importance metric and is faster than AdaLoRA.
Bayesian model averaging improves causal effect estimation by averaging over multiple models.
problem Estimating causal effects under linear Structural Causal Models (SCMs).
method Bayesian model averaging using Gaussian scale mixture distributions for computational efficiency.
result Bayesian model averaging is optimal for causal effect estimation.
Survey of Bayesian learning for neural networks.
problem Limitations of Bayesian learning in practical applications.
method Introduction to Bayesian Neural Networks and algorithms for inference.
result Discussion of standard and recent approaches for Bayesian inference in neural networks.
Study on reducing forgetting in neural networks using compression theory.
problem Catastrophic forgetting in neural networks.
method Defined forgetting as increased description lengths, compared variational posterior approaches to prequential coding methods.
result Proposed a new continual learning method combining ML plug-in and Bayesian mixture codes.