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arXiv research

A locally-built, LLM-digested index of recent arXiv papers in quant finance, geometry/topology, and statistical ML — keyword search served straight from SQLite on this machine.

168,922 papers · 148 categories

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3336669991,332 · Jun 202019922001200920172026
48 results for Bayesian numerical methods

This paper tackles Bayesian system identification with probabilistic numerical methods.

problem Accurately modeling nonlinear dynamic systems from noisy data.
method Probabilistic Sequential Monte Carlo (SMC) combined with probabilistic numerical integration.
result Efficient identification of latent states and system parameters from noisy measurements.

Bayesian probabilistic numerical methods are a set of tools providing posterior distributions on the output of numerical methods. The use of these methods is usually motivated by the fact that they can represent our uncertainty due to incomplete/finite information about the continuous mathematical problem being approxi…

2018-01-12abs ↗pdf ↗

Bayesian Probabilistic Integration uses BART for high-dimensional, non-smooth functions.

problem Bayesian quadrature's limitations in high-dimensional or non-smooth functions.
method Bayesian Additive Regression Trees (BART) priors for numerical integration.
result Explicit convergence rates can be obtained in various settings.

Parallel-in-time solver reduces ODE simulation time from linear to logarithmic.

problem Efficiently solving ordinary differential equations (ODEs) with reduced computational cost.
method Formulated a parallel-in-time probabilistic numerical ODE solver using time-parallel formulation of iterated extended Kalman smoothers.
result Reduces span cost from linear to logarithmic in the number of time steps.

Improved stability for large-scale Bayesian sampling.

problem Reducing instability in Langevin dynamics for large datasets.
method Introducing a modified CCAdL thermostat with a scaling and squaring method and a truncated Taylor series approximation.
result Significantly improved numerical stability and accuracy over existing methods.

Study shows how numerical discretization affects reconstructions and parameter distributions in nano metrology.

problem Impact of numerical discretization on parameter reconstructions and model parameter distributions.
method Bayesian target vector optimization, finite element model, Gaussian process, stochastic machine learning surrogate models, Markov chain Monte Carlo sampler.
result Numerical discretization parameters impact the accuracy and distribution of reconstructed model parameters.

LogEI improves Bayesian optimization by simplifying numerical computation of EI and related functions.

problem Numerical pathologies in optimizing EI and related acquisition functions.
method Proposes LogEI, a family of acquisition functions that simplify numerical optimization.
result LogEI members improve optimization performance and match or exceed state-of-the-art methods.

Study analyzes EU in variational inference for Bayesian deep learning.

problem Analyzing epistemic uncertainty in variational inference for Bayesian deep learning.
method Theoretical analysis and derivation of relations between generalization error and EU measurements. Proposing a new objective function for VI.
result Proposed new objective function significantly improves EU evaluation over existing VI methods.

Unified framework for Gaussian process methods in differential equations.

problem Fragmented approaches to Gaussian process methods in differential equations.
method Unified Bayesian perspective integrating differential equation constraints.
result Consolidation of existing methods and foundation for future research.

Bayesian Tobit model tackles high-dimensional censored data with Horseshoe prior.

problem High-dimensional censored data with unknown bounds.
method Horseshoe prior for shrinkage, data augmentation for Gibbs sampling.
result Established posterior consistency and concentration rates for Bayesian Tobit models.

Bayesian Topic Regression models causal inference with text and numerical data.

problem Causal inference using observational text data with both text and numerical confounders.
method Combines supervised Bayesian topic model with Bayesian regression framework, respecting the Frisch-Waugh-Lovell theorem.
result Joint approach recovers ground truth with lower bias than benchmarks, superior prediction results compared to separate approaches.

New method combines ODE solvers with Bayesian inference for efficient model training.

problem Combining ODE solvers with Bayesian inference for efficient model training.
method Probabilistic state space model using extended Kalman filter for joint inference from differential equations and data.
result Efficient approximate Bayesian inference on latent force and ODE solution.

Optical scatterometry is a method to measure the size and shape of periodic micro- or nanostructures on surfaces. For this purpose the geometry parameters of the structures are obtained by reproducing experimental measurement results through numerical simulations. We compare the performance of Bayesian optimization to …

2019-03-28abs ↗pdf ↗

A novel Bayesian computation method using importance weighting improves numerical stability and performance.

problem Bayesian computation stability and performance issues.
method Nonparametric approach via feature means, importance weighting, and kernel Bayes' rule.
result Importance weighted kernel Bayes' rule yields superior numerical stability and performance.

Integration over non-negative integrands is a central problem in machine learning (e.g. for model averaging, (hyper-)parameter marginalisation, and computing posterior predictive distributions). Bayesian Quadrature is a probabilistic numerical integration technique that performs promisingly when compared to traditional…

2018-12-04abs ↗pdf ↗

Stochastic Volatility in Mean models with heavy-tailed distributions using Hidden Markov Models

problem Accurate inference for Stochastic Volatility in Mean models with heavy-tailed distributions
method Numerically stable estimation procedure and parallel computing
result Significant reduction in computational times

Enhanced Bayesian target encoding uses sampling techniques to improve model performance.

problem Improving target encoding for better model performance in machine learning.
method Using sampling techniques in Bayesian target encoding to extract intra-category distribution information.
result Improves generalization and reduces target leakage in machine learning models.

New method integrates latent variables for Bayesian Optimization of materials with both qualitative and quantitative factors.

problem Bayesian Optimization for materials design with mixed qualitative and quantitative variables.
method Integrates latent variables for mixed-variable Gaussian process modeling within the Bayesian Optimization framework.
result LVGP provides superior modeling accuracy compared to existing methods for mixed-variable problems.

L-HNNs improve Bayesian inference efficiency by reducing gradient computation.

problem Efficient Bayesian inference with minimal gradient computation.
method Integrating L-HNNs into NUTS with online error monitoring.
result L-HNNs in NUTS outperform NUTS in complex posterior densities.

Bayesian method estimates Kronecker graphical models from autoregressive processes.

problem Estimating Kronecker graphical models from autoregressive Gaussian processes.
method Bayesian approach to estimate Kronecker graphical models.
result Effectiveness demonstrated through numerical experiments and real-world data application.

Develops methods to estimate gradient of EIG for Bayesian Experimental Design.

problem Optimizing Bayesian inference through efficient experimental design.
method Introduces UEEG-MCMC and BEEG-AP methods for estimating EIG gradient.
result Both methods improve upon existing benchmarks in EIG optimization.

Probabilistic method combines space and time uncertainties in PDEs.

problem Separate treatment of space and time in PDE solvers obscures interactions and error quantification.
method Gaussian process interpretation of finite difference methods interacting with probabilistic ODE solvers.
result Joint quantification of space- and time-uncertainty possible without sacrificing ODE solver performance.

Adaptive Bayesian quadrature (ABQ) is a powerful approach to numerical integration that empirically compares favorably with Monte Carlo integration on problems of medium dimensionality (where non-adaptive quadrature is not competitive). Its key ingredient is an acquisition function that changes as a function of previou…

2019-05-24abs ↗pdf ↗

Bayesian deep learning tackles uncertainty in high-dimensional systems.

problem Uncertainty quantification in high-dimensional stochastic partial differential equations.
method Bayesian neural network (BNN) and Hamiltonian Monte Carlo (HMC) for efficient sampling of posterior distributions.
result The method efficiently handles high-dimensional problems with almost independent computational cost.