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arXiv research

A locally-built, LLM-digested index of recent arXiv papers in quant finance, geometry/topology, and statistical ML — keyword search served straight from SQLite on this machine.

168,695 papers · 148 categories

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4386129172 · Jun 202019922001200920172026
48 results for Bayesian non-parametrics

Modeling structure in complex networks using Bayesian non-parametrics makes it possible to specify flexible model structures and infer the adequate model complexity from the observed data. This paper provides a gentle introduction to non-parametric Bayesian modeling of complex networks: Using an infinite mixture model …

2013-12-20abs ↗pdf ↗

DPPS uses DP priors for Bayesian non-parametric multi-arm bandits.

problem Optimizing multi-arm bandit environments with prior beliefs.
method Bayesian non-parametric algorithm based on Dirichlet Process priors.
result DPPS provides principled incorporation of prior beliefs and is optimal in Bayesian regret setup.

Bayesian econometrics improves nowcasting during pandemics.

problem Improving nowcasting during extreme economic events like pandemics.
method Bayesian econometric methods using non-parametric mixed frequency VARs with additive regression trees.
result Significant improvements in nowcasting performance compared to linear models.

We present a non-parametric Bayesian approach to structure learning with hidden causes. Previous Bayesian treatments of this problem define a prior over the number of hidden causes and use algorithms such as reversible jump Markov chain Monte Carlo to move between solutions. In contrast, we assume that the number of hi…

2012-06-27abs ↗pdf ↗

Bayesian approach improves uncertainty in deep learning models.

problem Uncertainty quantification in deep learning models.
method Bayesian point of view, Gaussian approximability, semi-parametric Bernstein-von Mises theorems.
result Bayesian credible regions have valid frequentist coverage, providing theoretical justification for deep learning.

BN^2MF identifies unknown exposure patterns in environmental mixtures.

problem Identifying unknown exposure patterns in environmental mixtures.
method Bayesian non-parametric non-negative matrix factorization (BN^2MF) with non-negative continuous priors and a non-parametric sparse prior.
result Estimates patterns of chemical exposures without specifying the number of patterns.

Bayesian non-parametric model adapts to concept drifts in streaming data.

problem Inference under concept drift phenomenon for non-stationary data streams.
method Variational inference algorithm for Dirichlet process mixture models with exponential forgetting.
result The proposed model outperforms state-of-the-art algorithms in clustering problems.

Bayesian model selection improves causal discovery in complex datasets.

problem Identifying causal direction in Markov equivalence classes with realistic assumptions.
method Incorporating causal assumptions within Bayesian framework for model selection.
result Bayesian model selection outperforms previous methods on various datasets.

The computational costs of inference and planning have confined Bayesian model-based reinforcement learning to one of two dismal fates: powerful Bayes-adaptive planning but only for simplistic models, or powerful, Bayesian non-parametric models but using simple, myopic planning strategies such as Thompson sampling. We …

2014-02-09abs ↗pdf ↗

We present a class of models that, via a simple construction, enables exact, incremental, non-parametric, polynomial-time, Bayesian inference of conditional measures. The approach relies upon creating a sequence of covers on the conditioning variable and maintaining a different model for each set within a cover. Infere…

2010-05-13abs ↗pdf ↗

Develops a Bayesian non-parametric approach for signal separation with varying components.

problem Signal separation with varying components across different input locations.
method Augments Gaussian Process Latent Variable Models with weighted sums of pure component signals and incorporates priors for linear weights.
result Framework allows for non-linear variations in signals and incorporates useful priors for linear weights.

Estimates conditional Brenier maps using entropic optimal transport.

problem Non-parametric estimation of conditional Brenier maps.
method Entropic optimal transport for scalable non-parametric estimation.
result Entropic optimal transport maps asymptotically converge to conditional Brenier maps.

Enhances generative models stability and accuracy with BNPL, WMMD, and triple model.

problem Overfitting in GANs and noisy samples in VAEs.
method Bayesian non-parametric learning framework, integrating Wasserstein distance and maximum mean discrepancy.
result Superior performance across various generative tasks.

DiD-BCF model improves causal inference in panel data with robust non-parametric methods.

problem Challenges in Difference-in-Differences (DiD) estimation, especially heterogeneous treatment effects and non-linearities.
method Difference-in-Differences Bayesian Causal Forest (DiD-BCF) with PTA-based reparameterization.
result DiD-BCF provides superior performance and uncovers significant heterogeneity in treatment effects.

Bayesian graph learning improves graph representation accuracy.

problem Inaccurate graph construction from noisy data.
method Non-parametric Bayesian graph model for posterior inference of graph adjacency matrices.
result Model scales well to large graphs and improves node classification, link prediction, and recommendation tasks.

PClean automates Bayesian data cleaning for specific datasets.

problem Bayesian inference for diverse and complex data cleaning.
method Domain-specific probabilistic programming language with custom models and inference.
result PClean programs outperform general-purpose PPLs in accuracy and runtime.

Bayesian model captures mean and variance of response variables.

problem Complex, predictor-dependent relationships and heteroscedastic patterns in data.
method Sum-of-tessellations for mean, product-of-tessellations for variance.
result Model captures nuanced variance structures and provides reliable predictive uncertainty.

Bayesian model tackles spatial count data issues with flexible non-parametric techniques.

problem Challenges in traditional parametric models for spatial count data with unbalanced distributions and complex dependencies.
method Bayesian semi-parametric spatial dispersed count model combining non-parametric techniques and adapted count models.
result Demonstrates superior performance in managing dispersion and capturing intricate spatial patterns.

FastMuyGPs speeds up GP predictions for large datasets.

problem High cost of Gaussian process predictions for large data.
method Combines cross-validation, batching, nearest neighbors sparsification, and precomputation.
result Superior accuracy and competitive runtime compared to other methods.

Bayesian inference using stochastic neural networks ensembles.

problem Approximating Bayesian posterior distributions.
method Formulate stochastic ensembles of neural networks, train with variational inference, and evaluate using Monte Carlo dropout.
result Stochastic ensembles provide more accurate posterior estimates than other methods.

In this paper, we develop an efficient nonparametric Bayesian estimation of the kernel function of Hawkes processes. The non-parametric Bayesian approach is important because it provides flexible Hawkes kernels and quantifies their uncertainty. Our method is based on the cluster representation of Hawkes processes. Util…

2018-10-08abs ↗pdf ↗

Understanding and interpreting how machine learning (ML) models make decisions have been a big challenge. While recent research has proposed various technical approaches to provide some clues as to how an ML model makes individual predictions, they cannot provide users with an ability to inspect a model as a complete e…

2018-11-07abs ↗pdf ↗

IQ-BART models conditional quantiles using a non-parametric Bayesian approach.

problem Capturing multimodal predictive distributions in time series forecasting.
method Implicit Quantile BART (IQ-BART) augments data with quantile values for non-parametric quantile function estimation.
result IQ-BART provides flexible distribution-free regression with theoretical guarantees.

A set of probabilistic predictions is well calibrated if the events that are predicted to occur with probability p do in fact occur about p fraction of the time. Well calibrated predictions are particularly important when machine learning models are used in decision analysis. This paper presents two new non-parametric …

2014-01-13abs ↗pdf ↗

Using nonparametric methods has been increasingly explored in Bayesian hierarchical modeling as a way to increase model flexibility. Although the field shows a lot of promise, inference in many models, including Hierachical Dirichlet Processes (HDP), remain prohibitively slow. One promising path forward is to exploit t…

2015-01-16abs ↗pdf ↗

Bayesian nonparametric models get better posterior estimates via SPDE methods.

problem Estimating posterior distributions in nonparametric Bayesian models.
method Extending diffusion methods to SPDEs on Hilbert spaces for posterior contraction and Laplace approximation.
result Derivation of posterior contraction rates and finite-sample Bernstein von Mises results.

Local-HDP learns independent topics for each 3D object category in real-time.

problem Learning independent topics for each 3D object category in real-time.
method Local-Hierarchical Dirichlet Process (Local-HDP) with online variational inference.
result Local-HDP outperforms other approaches in accuracy, scalability, and memory efficiency.

Estimates individualized treatment effects using shared RBF-net neurons.

problem Identifying differential treatment effects based on covariates.
method Non-parametric radial basis function (RBF)-nets with shared hidden neurons in a Bayesian framework.
result Demonstrated through simulations and real data, the method identifies interesting treatment effects.

New algorithm improves Gaussian process hyperparameter tuning for large datasets.

problem Scalable hyperparameter tuning for Gaussian processes on large datasets.
method Estimates smoothness and length-scale parameters in Matern kernel using novel loss functions.
result Improved uncertainty quantification over traditional methods.

NeuralSurv models survival analysis with Bayesian uncertainty.

problem Capturing time-varying risk relationships in survival analysis.
method Two-stage data-augmentation scheme, mean-field variational algorithm, coordinate-ascent updates, locally linearized Bayesian neural network.
result Delivers superior calibration compared to state-of-the-art models.

General predictive models do not provide a measure of confidence in predictions without Bayesian assumptions. A way to circumvent potential restrictions is to use conformal methods for constructing non-parametric confidence regions, that offer guarantees regarding validity. In this paper we provide a detailed descripti…

2016-09-19abs ↗pdf ↗