New PAC-Bayesian approach stabilizes actor-critic learning.
problem Training instability in actor-critic algorithms.
method Employing PAC-Bayesian bound as the critic training objective.
result Significant improvement in online learning performance.
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48 results for “Bayesian model criticism”
Bayesian approach improves image captioning quality metrics.
problem Improving image captioning quality metrics.
method Bayesian Self-Critical Sequence Training (B-SCST) with Monte Carlo dropout approximate variational inference.
result B-SCST improves CIDEr-D scores on various image captioning datasets.
A new method uses ABC-SMC to infer hybrid models in bioprocesses with limited data.
problem Inference of hybrid models in bioprocesses with limited real data and high uncertainties.
method Approximate Bayesian Computation with Sequential Monte Carlo (ABC-SMC) and linear Gaussian dynamic Bayesian network (LG-DBN) for posterior distribution approximation.
result The method accelerates hybrid model inference and supports process monitoring and robust control.
Continuous-time MBRL framework tackles control systems with Bayesian ODEs.
problem Discretization of continuous-time systems in MBRL.
method Novel actor-critic method with Bayesian ODEs for state inference.
result Model robust against irregular and noisy data, sample-efficient, solves challenging control problems.
Review of priors in Bayesian deep learning models.
problem The importance of prior choices in Bayesian deep learning models.
method Overview of different priors and methods of learning priors from data.
result Motivate practitioners to think carefully about prior specification.
Deep Neural Networks (DNNs) have achieved state-of-the-art accuracy performance in many tasks. However, recent works have pointed out that the outputs provided by these models are not well-calibrated, seriously limiting their use in critical decision scenarios. In this work, we propose to use a decoupled Bayesian stage…
New method selects critical DER scenarios for distribution grid investment planning.
problem Determining critical DER adoption scenarios for risk assessment in distribution grids.
method Bayesian Optimization framework using Gaussian Process surrogates and Pareto-critical acquisition function.
result Statistical guarantee and significant speed-up over exhaustive search in selecting critical DER scenarios.
Study prenatal PM2.5 exposure and 4th grade reading scores, identifying critical windows of susceptibility.
problem Understanding the impact of prenatal PM2.5 exposure on educational outcomes.
method Developed a locally adaptive Bayesian regression model with B-spline basis expansion and dynamic shrinkage priors.
result Prenatal PM2.5 exposure during early and late pregnancy is most adverse for 4th grade reading scores.
Bayesian approach uses Gaussian process for reinforcement learning.
problem Robotic locomotion environments
method Bayesian actor-critic, model-free reinforcement learning with Gaussian process for exploration and policy optimization.
result Gaussian process method outperforms current algorithms in robotic locomotion environments.
Out-of-Distribution Detection from Small Training Sets using Bayesian Neural Network Classifierscs.LG
Bayesian Neural Networks improve OOD detection with limited data.
problem Limited training data hinders reliable OOD detection.
method Bayesian Neural Networks with expected logit vectors.
result Bayesian methods outperform deterministic methods in small data settings.
Develops robust ML systems for predictive uncertainties and adversarial examples.
problem Uncertainties and vulnerabilities in ML predictions and adversarial examples.
method Bayesian structural time series models, SG-MCMC, SVGD, Markov chain samplers, reinforcement learning.
result Improved robustness and efficiency in Bayesian inference and adversarial machine learning.
SGPA calibrates transformer uncertainty for safety-critical tasks.
problem Uncertainty estimation in transformer models for safety-critical domains.
method Bayesian inference in transformer's output space using sparse Gaussian processes.
result SGPA-based Transformers improve in-distribution calibration and out-of-distribution robustness.
Bayesian parametric matrix models provide uncertainty quantification for spectral learning.
problem Uncertainty quantification in spectral learning for safety-critical applications.
method Bayesian parametric matrix models (B-PMMs) that extend PMMs to provide uncertainty estimates.
result B-PMMs achieve exceptional uncertainty calibration (ECE < 0.05) while maintaining favorable scaling.
Bayesian CNN improves MRI stroke diagnosis accuracy and uncertainty quantification.
problem Uncertainty quantification in automated image analysis for medical decision-making.
method Bayesian Convolutional Neural Network (CNN) with aggregation methods for patient-level diagnoses.
result Bayesian CNN achieved 95.33% accuracy on 511 patients, 2% higher than non-Bayesian.
Bayesian inverse problems solved with Gaussian models for PDEs.
problem Solving inverse problems with limited data for PDEs.
method Constructing PDE-informed Gaussian priors for Bayesian inversion.
result PDE-informed Gaussian priors outperform traditional priors.
Bayesian framework proves thresholds for multi-graph alignment feasibility.
problem Determining when multi-graph alignment is statistically possible.
method Developed a Bayesian estimation framework over metric spaces.
result Identified thresholds for Gaussian and sparse Erdős-Rényi models.
Study analyzes European energy markets' reactions to 2022 events using Bayesian methods.
problem Detecting structural breakpoints in energy and financial markets during turbulent times.
method Combines Hurst exponent for market efficiency, BEAST for abrupt changes, and seasonal/trend analysis.
result Markets exhibit varied reactions to critical events, affecting their trends and breakpoints.
Paper develops robust Bayesian models for linear regression under adversarial perturbations.
problem Ensuring reliable machine learning models under data perturbations.
method Formulates adversarial Bregman divergence loss, computes adversarial perturbation, introduces adversarially robust posteriors, derives generalization certificates.
result Derives first rigorous generalization certificates for adversarially robust Bayesian linear regression.
Generative AI can solve in-context learning problems using a martingale perspective.
problem Estimating when a conditional generative model can solve an in-context learning problem.
method Bayesian interpretation, ancestral sampling, generative predictive p-value.
result Developed a method to assess the suitability of CGMs for ICL problems using generative predictive p-values.
TFB simplifies Bayesian LLM uncertainty estimation without extra training.
problem Estimating uncertainty in LLM responses remains challenging.
method Training-Free Bayesianization (TFB) that transforms low-rank adapters into Bayesian ones without additional training.
result TFB achieves superior uncertainty estimation and generalization compared to existing methods.
The Effect of Prior Lipschitz Continuity on the Adversarial Robustness of Bayesian Neural Networksstat.ML
Study shows prior Lipschitz continuity can improve adversarial robustness of Bayesian Neural Networks.
problem Improving adversarial robustness of Bayesian Neural Networks.
method Analysis of i.i.d., zero-mean Gaussian priors and posteriors approximated via mean-field variational inference.
result Adversarial robustness is sensitive to the prior variance.
New method calibrates LLMs for safety-critical tasks with scalable Bayesian inference.
problem Overconfidence in LLMs after fine-tuning for specific tasks.
method Orthogonalized Low-Rank Adapters (PoLAR) with variational Bayesian inference.
result Scalable and well-calibrated uncertainty estimation for LLMs.
Paper develops efficient Bayesian inference for enzymatic SRNs with LNA metamodel.
problem Bayesian inference for nonlinear SDE-based mechanistic models with partial observations and measurement errors.
method Interpretable Bayesian updating LNA metamodel and efficient posterior sampling.
result Proposed approach demonstrates promising performance in empirical studies.
Study estimates personalized effects of maternal PM2.5 exposure on birth weight.
problem Identify critical windows and heterogeneity in maternal PM2.5 exposure effects on birth weight.
method Heterogeneous Distributed Lag Models and Bayesian Additive Regression Trees.
result Evidence of heterogeneity in PM2.5-birth weight relationship, with some dyads showing 3x larger decrease.
New reinforcement learning bound improves generalization for sequential data.
problem Challenges in obtaining generalization guarantees for reinforcement learning due to sequential data.
method PAC-Bayesian reinforcement learning with consideration of Markov dependencies and mixing time.
result Demonstrated practical utility through PB-SAC, providing meaningful confidence certificates.
RETINA Benchmark evaluates Bayesian deep learning on diabetic retinopathy detection.
problem Reliable uncertainty quantification for deep learning models in medical applications.
method Design and evaluation of a real-world diabetic retinopathy dataset and tasks.
result Benchmarking of Bayesian deep learning methods on diabetic retinopathy detection tasks.
Bayesian DDR models complex multivariate distributions.
problem Modeling relationships between multivariate distributions with differing dimensions.
method Generalized Bayesian framework using sliced Wasserstein distance and MALA for inference.
result Posterior consistency and robust fits demonstrated in simulations and real data.
The paper analyzes distributed Bayesian inference and its Frequentist guarantees.
problem Analyzing large decentralized datasets with distributed Bayesian inference.
method Establishes Frequentist properties for distributed (non-)Bayesian inference.
result Distributed Bayesian inference retains parametric efficiency and enhances robustness.
New method improves reliability of depth estimation models.
problem Uncertainty quantification in large-scale vision models.
method Parameter-efficient Bayesian neural networks with PEFT methods.
result Combining PEFT methods with Bayesian inference enhances predictive performance.
Optimizes active learning for machine learning models with Bayesian approach.
problem Efficiently allocate labeling resources to train machine learning models.
method Directly optimizes misclassification error using a Bayesian approach with conjugate prior.
result Superior performance compared to state-of-the-art selection strategies.
New analysis shows LLMs don't follow Bayesian inference in ICL.
problem Does in-context learning in LLMs follow Bayesian inference?
method Analyzes ICL through the martingale property, a requirement for Bayesian inference.
result Violations of the martingale property show LLMs don't follow Bayesian inference.
Bayesian modeling predicts hydroxide ion conductivity in polymer membranes.
problem Quantitative relationship between hydrophilic domain size and hydroxide ion conductivity in polymer membranes is unknown.
method Bayesian sparse modeling applied to copolymer composition data.
result Composition-derived features are identified as critical for predicting hydroxide ion conductivity.
The paper examines VI for overparameterized BNNs, revealing a trade-off between likelihood and KL terms.
problem Critical issue in mean-field VI training for overparameterized BNNs.
method Theoretical and empirical study of overparameterized two-layer BNNs using VI.
result A trade-off between likelihood and KL terms in overparameterized regime, with KL scaling crucial.
DCMAP optimizes clustering in Bayesian Networks with dependent costs.
problem Optimal clustering in Bayesian Networks with cost dependency.
method DCMAP algorithm that iteratively finds near-optimal cluster mappings.
result DCMAP finds all least cost cluster mappings optimally with minimal iterations.
BSG learns dynamic network spillovers and uncertainty quantification.
problem Identifying indirect spillovers and systemic risk in dynamic networks.
method Bayesian Spillover Graphs using FEVD and Bayesian time series models.
result Significant performance gains over baselines in identifying source and sink nodes.
A Bayesian framework models adversarial uncertainty for robust machine learning.
problem Vulnerability of machine learning models to adversarial attacks.
method Formal Bayesian framework that models adversarial uncertainty through a stochastic channel, articulating probabilistic assumptions.
result Explicitly modeling adversarial uncertainty leads to improved robustification strategies.
Bayesian neural networks (BNN) can estimate the uncertainty in predictions, as opposed to non-Bayesian neural networks (NNs). However, BNNs have been far less widely used than non-Bayesian NNs in practice since they need iterative NN executions to predict a result for one data, and it gives rise to prohibitive computat…
Bayesian data selection framework ensures fairness in machine learning models.
problem High computational costs and limited scalability of fairness-aware methods.
method Bayesian data selection framework using generalized discrepancy measures.
result Consistently outperforms existing methods in fairness and accuracy.
The concept of causality has a controversial history. The question of whether it is possible to represent and address causal problems with probability theory, or if fundamentally new mathematics such as the do-calculus is required has been hotly debated, In this paper we demonstrate that, while it is critical to explic…
ABC improves uncertainty quantification in LLMs for clinical diagnostics.
problem Overconfident and poorly calibrated estimates of LLMs in clinical domains.
method Approximate Bayesian Computation (ABC) for likelihood-free inference.
result Improves accuracy by up to 46.9%, reduces Brier scores by 74.4%, and enhances calibration.
This review synthesizes uncertainty modeling in probabilistic image segmentation.
problem Relaxed Bayesian assumptions lead to missing uncertainty information in deep models.
method Standardizes theory, notation, and terminology for feature- and parameter-distribution modeling.
result Establishes a common framework for robust decision-making in segmentation tasks.
Bayesian method predicts asset returns for better portfolio optimization.
problem Uncertainty in financial markets makes traditional portfolio optimization methods unreliable.
method Bayesian predictive synthesis (BPS) combined with dynamic linear models.
result Predicted distribution information improves portfolio performance.
Bayesian adversaries can outsmart traditional adversarial attacks.
problem Bayesian adversaries can manipulate machine learning models through small perturbations.
method Developed a continuous-time particle system (Abram) to approximate the gradient flow of the Bayesian adversarial robustness problem.
result Abram approximates the minimizer of the Bayesian adversarial robustness problem under certain assumptions.
Quantum kernel improves probabilistic time series forecasting.
problem Quantifying uncertainty in probabilistic time series predictions.
method Integrates quantum kernel with Gaussian process regression.
result Quantum kernel enhances forecasting performance.
Uncertainty estimation in deep neural networks is essential for designing reliable and robust AI systems. Applications such as video surveillance for identifying suspicious activities are designed with deep neural networks (DNNs), but DNNs do not provide uncertainty estimates. Capturing reliable uncertainty estimates i…
Modeling complex conditional distributions is critical in a variety of settings. Despite a long tradition of research into conditional density estimation, current methods employ either simple parametric forms or are difficult to learn in practice. This paper employs normalising flows as a flexible likelihood model and …
Bayesian optimization with preference learning using monotonic neural networks.
problem Optimizing complex systems with multiple conflicting objectives.
method Proposes a neural network ensemble for utility surrogate modeling, leveraging monotonicity.
result Demonstrates superior performance compared to existing methods.
Decomposes epistemic uncertainty into per-class contributions for safer classification.
problem Asymmetric costs in safety-critical classification.
method Decomposes mutual information into per-class vector using second-order Taylor expansion.
result Decomposition improves selective risk by 34.7% and 56.2% over existing metrics.