GP-LVM improves covariance estimation in finance.
problem Stability of covariance estimates in small sample sizes.
method Gaussian Process Latent Variable Model (GP-LVM) for non-linear covariance estimation.
result GP-LVM reduces estimation errors and provides interpretable parameters.
This survey explores causal inference in banking, finance, and insurance.
problem Explaining decisions in banking, finance, and insurance using causal inference.
method Categorizes 37 papers on causal inference applications in banking, finance, and insurance.
result Causal inference is still in its infancy in banking and insurance sectors.
Research uses DBN to estimate PE ratios for better investment decisions.
problem Lack of formalized methods for estimating fundamental PE ratios.
method Dynamic Bayesian Network (DBN) methodology for estimating PE ratios.
result Trading strategy based on inferred PE ratios outperforms benchmarks.
PENN neural network estimates parameter distributions for econ models.
problem Lack of interpretability in deep neural networks for econ applications.
method Generative neural network architecture for Bayesian inference.
result PENN provides interpretable parameter estimates and visualizations.
Novel approach for estimating conditional expectations using Bayesian quadrature.
problem Estimating conditional expectations with costly evaluations.
method Probabilistic numerical methods incorporating prior smoothness knowledge.
result Fast convergence rate and uncertainty quantification.
Paper proposes government indemnification for AI risks to solve judgment-proof problem.
problem Uninsurable risks from AI, especially existential risks, create a judgment-proof problem.
method A government-provided, mandatory indemnification program using risk-priced fees and Bayesian Truth Serum.
result The approach better leverages private information and signals risk mitigation efforts.
This paper optimizes stock portfolios considering ESG criteria using Bayesian optimization.
problem Optimizing financial investments while incorporating ESG criteria.
method Bayesian optimization to maximize stock portfolio performance under ESG constraints.
result A scalable approach to optimize stock portfolios that balance financial performance and ESG compliance.
Variational Inference shows promise for Bayesian GARCH model estimation.
problem Bayesian estimation of GARCH-family models using Monte Carlo sampling.
method Variational Inference as an alternative to Monte Carlo sampling.
result Variational Inference is a reliable and competitive method for Bayesian learning in GARCH-like models.
Bayesian method tests Granger causality in functional time series.
problem Testing Granger causality between functional time series.
method Bayesian dynamic linear models (DLM) and Bayes Factor.
result Captures Granger causality between yield curves and weather conditions.
Bayesian analysis optimizes stop-loss thresholds based on drawdown distributions.
problem Arbitrary stop-loss levels in financial strategies.
method Bayesian analysis of drawdown distributions.
result Systematic selection of optimal stop-loss thresholds.
Optimising black-box functions is important in many disciplines, such as tuning machine learning models, robotics, finance and mining exploration. Bayesian optimisation is a state-of-the-art technique for the global optimisation of black-box functions which are expensive to evaluate. At the core of this approach is a G…
Enhances financial optimization under model uncertainty using subsampling.
problem Model uncertainty in financial decision-making from limited data.
method Superimposes uncertainty measure on model space, uses subsampling for model distribution approximation, adapts SGD for efficiency.
result Uncertainty measures outperform traditional methods and achieve comparable performance to Bayesian methods.
This paper provides a PAC-Bayesian bound for CVaR in machine learning.
problem Learning algorithms minimizing CVaR of empirical loss.
method Generalization bound of PAC-Bayesian type, reducing CVaR estimation to expectation estimation.
result The bound is small when empirical CVaR is small, providing concentration inequalities for CVaR.
A government has to finance a risk for its population. It shares the charges among the population with a fixed scale based on economic criteria. Various organisms have to collect and to redistribute fairly the subsidies. Under these conditions, when the size of the organisms is varied, the distribution's laws of the cr…
Bayesian Beta regression for proportions in high dimensions with theoretical guarantees.
problem Modeling bounded continuous responses in high-dimensional settings with theoretical guarantees.
method Proposes a Bayesian approach using a tempered posterior with Horseshoe prior for shrinkage and variable selection.
result Demonstrates improved estimation accuracy and model interpretability in high-dimensional scenarios.
Optimizes portfolio construction using Bayesian methods and variational techniques.
problem Balancing reward and risk in portfolio construction.
method Bayesian decision-theoretic formulation, saddle-point problem, variational Bayes relaxation, efficient algorithm, provable convergence.
result Proves statistical consistency of proposed decision with optimal Bayesian decision.
Bayesian approach improves Nelson-Siegel yield curve modeling.
problem Yield curve modeling in finance.
method Hierarchical Bayesian model with MAP estimates via BFGS algorithm and HMC.
result Strong negative correlation between bond price and long-term yield effect, weak positive correlation between short-term rate effect and bond value.
Bayesian method predicts future network configurations from past snapshots.
problem Reconstructing evolving networks from partial observations.
method Bayesian approach using past network snapshots to inform future predictions.
result Method accurately predicts link probabilities and network structure.
Detects potential depegs in Curve's StableSwap pools to protect LPs.
problem Detecting and alerting LPs to potential depegs in Curve's StableSwap pools.
method Constructed metrics based on price and trading data, fine-tuned BOCD algorithm.
result Model detects USDC depeg 5 hours before price dip, with few false alarms.
A method learns user preferences for better personalized portfolios.
problem Difficult balancing of portfolio factors like returns, risk, exposure, etc.
method Active preference learning using Bayesian optimization.
result Personalized portfolios are identified that are distinct from user perspective.
Paper proves long-term investor behavior based on power utility coefficient.
problem Understanding long-term behavior of optimal strategies in financial markets.
method Bayesian financial market model with power utility maximization.
result Optimal strategy behavior depends on power utility coefficient sign.
We propose a novel information-theoretic approach for Bayesian optimization called Predictive Entropy Search (PES). At each iteration, PES selects the next evaluation point that maximizes the expected information gained with respect to the global maximum. PES codifies this intractable acquisition function in terms of t…
SurvivalPFN simplifies survival analysis through amortized Bayesian inference.
problem Selecting appropriate survival analysis methods requires expertise and can be time-consuming.
method SurvivalPFN uses a prior-data fitted network for in-context Bayesian inference.
result SurvivalPFN achieves strong predictive performance across diverse datasets.
Bayesian inference for Levy density with Gibbs posterior in discrete sampling.
problem Inference on Levy density for financial models with jumps.
method Gibbs posterior framework using a loss function for intractable likelihood.
result Gibbs posterior achieves nearly optimal rate of convergence under certain conditions.
Bayesian algorithm detects changes in fluctuating baselines.
problem Detecting change points in time series with a shifting baseline.
method Extended Bayesian online change point detection (BOCPD) algorithm.
result The extended algorithm can detect changes in fluctuating baselines.
Bayesian Context Trees model improves financial time series forecasting.
problem Modeling and forecasting financial time series with volatility asymmetries.
method Hierarchical Bayesian framework for tree-based mixture models with AR/ARCH base models.
result BCT-X framework outperforms state-of-the-art techniques in forecasting accuracy and computational efficiency.
The paper resolves behavioral finance objections to rational finance theory.
problem Predictability of asset returns, Equity Premium, Volatility Puzzle.
method Statistical models within rational finance theory.
result Offers resolutions to behavioral finance anomalies.
Changepoints are abrupt variations in the generative parameters of a data sequence. Online detection of changepoints is useful in modelling and prediction of time series in application areas such as finance, biometrics, and robotics. While frequentist methods have yielded online filtering and prediction techniques, mos…
Bayesian method improves portfolio management with limited data.
problem Estimating covariance or precision matrix for large portfolios is challenging.
method Bayesian graphical LASSO for precision matrix estimation.
result The Bayesian approach outperforms non-Bayesian methods in stability and precision matrix estimation.
DBNs predict cryptocurrency price directions by uncovering causal relationships.
problem Predicting cryptocurrency price movements due to volatility and external factors.
method Dynamic Bayesian Networks (DBN) approach to identify causal relationships among features.
result DBN significantly outperforms baseline models in predicting cryptocurrency prices.
Paper explores Thompson Sampling for heavy-tailed distributions in sequential decision-making.
problem Sequential decision-making with heavy-tailed rewards.
method Revisit Thompson Sampling for symmetric α-stable distributions, presenting algorithms and proving regret bounds. result Thompson Sampling outperforms in heavy-tailed reward settings.
Bayesian imputation optimizes bias-variance tradeoff in time-series data.
problem Look-ahead bias in imputation of missing time-series data.
method Wasserstein interpolation for Bayesian posterior consensus distribution.
result Optimal control of look-ahead bias and variance in imputation.
DYNOTEARS learns connections between variables over time, outperforming other methods.
problem Learning dynamic Bayesian networks from time-series data.
method Score-based approach minimizing a penalized loss subject to an acyclicity constraint.
result DYNOTEARS outperforms other methods on simulated and real data.
Trade finance history traced from medieval origins to modern markets.
problem Evolution and standardization of trade finance products.
method Historical analysis of market structures and regulatory changes.
result Global trade finance market evolved from local to centralized, then decentralized.
Paper proposes Bayesian TMLE methods for causal effect uncertainty quantification.
problem Quantifying uncertainty in causal effect estimation.
method Three Bayesian TMLE approaches for binary and continuous outcomes.
result BN-TMLE outperforms classical implementations in small data regimes.
Decentralized finance uses blockchain for $70B in assets, differing from traditional finance.
problem Ensuring compliance and security in decentralized finance.
method Systematic analysis of legal, economic, security, and privacy aspects.
result Decentralized finance offers unique economic effects and security features.
ExDBN learns dynamic Bayesian networks using mixed-integer programming.
problem Learning dynamic causal relationships from time series data.
method Score-based learning algorithm using mixed-integer quadratic programming with branch-and-cut method.
result The proposed method produces more accurate results than state-of-the-art approaches.
Bayesian networks improve product risk assessment by handling uncertainty and causality.
problem Limited handling of uncertainty and inability to incorporate causal explanations in existing methods.
method Bayesian Networks (BNs) for improved systematic product risk assessment.
result BN approach provides more powerful and flexible risk assessments.
Survey and compare PAC-Bayes bounds for bandit problems.
problem Designing and evaluating bandit algorithms with strong performance guarantees.
method PAC-Bayes bounds applied to bandit problems.
result PAC-Bayes bounds useful for offline bandit algorithms, but loose for online algorithms.
Develops information geometry for Lévy processes in finance.
problem Understanding the statistical properties of Lévy processes for financial modeling.
method Deriving α-divergences from Lévy triplets, identifying Fisher information matrix and α-connection. result Identifies statistical implications and differential-geometric structures of Lévy processes.
Combines multiple asset views with machine learning for better portfolio allocation.
problem Portfolio allocation with multiple uncertain asset views.
method Consistency-based data fusion techniques for combining Black-Litterman model with machine learning predictions.
result Improved portfolio allocation through fusion of multiple view estimates.
Quantum tech speeds up financial risk assessment.
problem Improving credit valuation adjustments using quantum mechanics.
method Developed a quantum algorithm using Bayesian quantum amplitude estimation and engineered likelihood functions.
result Significant speedup in quantum computations for CVA over classical methods.
Alternative finance models from physics for non-equilibrium systems.
problem Inequities of classical finance models in physics-based perspective.
method Physics-based insights for non-equilibrium finance models.
result Alternative models for non-equilibrium finance systems.
This review covers AI in finance, challenges, techniques, and opportunities.
problem Challenges and opportunities in AI applications in finance.
method Comprehensive categorization and overview of AI research in finance over decades.
result A dense roadmap of AI challenges, techniques, and opportunities in finance.
Bayesian imputation optimizes bias-variance trade-off in time-series data.
problem Look-ahead bias in imputation of missing time-series data.
method Bayesian consensus posterior that fuses multiple posteriors to optimize bias and variance trade-off.
result Benefit of imputation for portfolio allocation with missing returns demonstrated.
Experts predict significant adoption of decentralized finance by 2034, with traditional finance adapting.
problem Adoption and integration of decentralized finance (DeFi) in financial services.
method Survey analysis using New Institutional Economics and Dynamic Capabilities Theory.
result Experts expect adoption of DeFi to rise from negligible to 43% by 2034, with traditional finance likely to embrace it.
Study on how China's SMEs finance changed post-crisis, focusing on internal vs. external financing.
problem Analyzing SME financing problems before and after the global financial crisis.
method Regression analysis based on Trade-Off Theory, empirical research on 158 firms.
result SMEs with high growth rates are more likely to obtain external financing after a financial crisis.
The objective of the note is to remind readers on how self-financing works in Quantitative Finance. The authors have observed continuing uncertainty on this issue which may be because it lies exactly at the intersection of stochastic calculus and finance. The concept of a self-financing trading strategy was originally,…