Generalizes insider trading model to multiple assets.
problem Modeling informed trading in a multi-asset context.
method Formulated an infinite-dimensional Bayesian trading game.
result Obtained a parsimonious equilibrium with closed-form solutions.
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48 results for “Bayesian equilibrium”
Study examines strategic exit timing in uncertain competition.
problem Timing of strategic exit decisions in competitive markets with uncertainty.
method Constructs a stochastic game equilibrium for exit strategies involving state variable and posterior belief process.
result Unique equilibrium found for symmetric Bayesian players.
This paper investigates the equilibrium interactions between trading targets and private information in a multi-period Kyle (1985) market. There are two investors who each follow dynamic trading strategies: A strategic portfolio rebalancer who engages in order splitting to reach a cumulative trading target and an uncon…
Provably Efficient Information-Directed Sampling Algorithms for Multi-Agent Reinforcement Learningcs.IT
Novel algorithms for multi-agent reinforcement learning reduce sample complexity.
problem Efficiently learning Nash equilibria in multi-agent settings.
method Information-Directed Sampling (IDS) principles applied to multi-agent reinforcement learning.
result Sample-efficient algorithms for learning Nash equilibria in various multi-agent settings.
Statistical Gamesmath.ST
Unified framework for Bayesian and Frequentist statistics.
problem Embedding Bayesian statistics within a broader decision-making framework.
method Game theory and statistical analysis.
result Statistical games unify Bayesian and Frequentist statistics.
BSG learns dynamic network spillovers and uncertainty quantification.
problem Identifying indirect spillovers and systemic risk in dynamic networks.
method Bayesian Spillover Graphs using FEVD and Bayesian time series models.
result Significant performance gains over baselines in identifying source and sink nodes.
This paper studies an environment of simultaneous, separate, first-price auctions for complementary goods. Agents observe private values of each good before making bids, and the complementarity between goods is explicitly incorporated in their utility. For simplicity, a model is presented with two first-price auctions …
Physics-informed Bayesian inference of external potentials in classical density-functional theorycond-mat.stat-mech
Bayesian inference reconstructs external potentials in DFT for many-particle systems.
problem Reconstructing external potentials in classical density-functional theory (DFT) for many-particle systems.
method Combines Bayesian inference with classical DFT to probabilistically reconstruct external potentials.
result Accurately infers external potentials and density profiles with uncertainty quantification.
Paper proposes incentives for federated learning to ensure truthful contributions.
problem Ensuring truthful contributions from decentralized users in federated learning.
method Introduces a scoring rule based framework to incentivize truthful reporting of local hypotheses at a Bayesian Nash Equilibrium.
result Proposed solution verified using MNIST and CIFAR-10 datasets, showing decreasing scores for low-quality hypotheses.
Bayesian reflex models AI learning like the autonomic nervous system.
problem Online learning in dynamic AI environments.
method Bayesian online algorithms with belief maintenance, sequential updating, and uncertainty-driven action balancing.
result Unified framework for adaptive AI learning.
Paper presents a fast method for estimating hidden states in Bayesian models.
problem Estimating hidden states in Bayesian state space models efficiently.
method Amortized simulation-based inference with pretraining.
result The method achieves sufficient accuracy and fast inference times.
Recently, prediction markets have shown considerable promise for developing flexible mechanisms for machine learning. In this paper, agents with isoelastic utilities are considered. It is shown that the costs associated with homogeneous markets of agents with isoelastic utilities produce equilibrium prices correspondin…
Bayesian learning in undirected graphical models|computing posterior distributions over parameters and predictive quantities is exceptionally difficult. We conjecture that for general undirected models, there are no tractable MCMC (Markov Chain Monte Carlo) schemes giving the correct equilibrium distribution over param…
A \emph{new} notion of equilibrium, which we call \emph{strong equilibrium}, is introduced for time-inconsistent stopping problems in continuous time. Compared to the existing notions introduced in ArXiv: 1502.03998 and ArXiv: 1709.05181, which in this paper are called \emph{mild equilibrium} and \emph{weak equilibrium…
Bayesian methods improve adversarial machine learning robustness.
problem Improving machine learning systems' security against adversarial manipulation.
method Integrating Bayesian perspectives to relax unrealistic assumptions in game-theoretic models.
result Bayesian approach provides more robust inferences about opponent's beliefs and interests.
Thermodynamic integration (TI) for computing marginal likelihoods is based on an inverse annealing path from the prior to the posterior distribution. In many cases, the resulting estimator suffers from high variability, which particularly stems from the prior regime. When comparing complex models with differences in a …
Two-cycle GEILA equilibria are OLG equilibria and vice versa, with applications to indeterminacy and bubbles.
problem Relationship between GEILA and OLG models.
method Proof of equilibrium equivalence and application to indeterminacy and bubbles.
result GEILA and OLG models are equivalent under certain conditions.
We prove the existence of a Radner equilibrium in a model with proportional transaction costs on an infinite time horizon and analyze the effect of transaction costs on the endogenously determined interest rate. Two agents receive exogenous, unspanned income and choose between consumption and investing into an annuity.…
A new method relaxes molecules without needing non-equilibrium data.
problem Molecular relaxation requires understanding non-equilibrium structures.
method MoreRed: molecular relaxation by reverse diffusion with time step prediction.
result MoreRed learns a simpler pseudo potential energy surface.
This paper addresses the problem of multi-agent inverse reinforcement learning (MIRL) in a two-player general-sum stochastic game framework. Five variants of MIRL are considered: uCS-MIRL, advE-MIRL, cooE-MIRL, uCE-MIRL, and uNE-MIRL, each distinguished by its solution concept. Problem uCS-MIRL is a cooperative game in…
Existence of Radner equilibrium proven with growing population.
problem Analyzing Radner equilibrium in a model with population growth.
method Proved existence of equilibrium for growing population using mathematical analysis.
result Equilibrium exists for a growing population, with effects on annuity prices.
Study how transaction costs impact stock returns and holdings in equilibrium.
problem Impact of quadratic transaction costs on equilibrium stock returns and holdings.
method Developed a continuous-time risk-sharing model with FBSDEs to characterize equilibrium stock holdings and trading rates.
result Equilibrium stock holdings and trading rates are uniquely determined by FBSDEs, and equilibrium return by a system of coupled FBSDEs.
Equilibrium found for multi-agent trading with transaction costs.
problem Designing a trading equilibrium for multiple agents with transaction costs.
method Proving the existence of a continuous-time Radner equilibrium with incentives and transaction costs.
result Each agent optimally trades for a specific time interval before stopping, influenced by transaction costs.
Privacy-preserving crypto exchanges adjust prices based on Gaussian noise.
problem Ensuring fair pricing in privacy-preserving cryptocurrency exchanges.
method Derive Kyle equilibrium with Gaussian noise perturbation, rescaling price-impact and strategy factors.
result Identify a privacy subsidy as a transfer from LP pool to traders, invariant to noise.
Bayesian calibration for BCP self-assembly models using image data and measure transport.
problem Calibrating models of BCP self-assembly from image data with aleatory uncertainty.
method Likelihood-free inference via measure transport and summary statistics.
result Expected information gains can be computed efficiently for model calibration.
The paper examines Nash equilibrium in GANs for stationary Gaussian processes.
problem Existence and uniqueness of Nash equilibrium in GANs for stationary Gaussian processes.
method Analyzes the existence of Nash equilibrium in GANs for stationary Gaussian processes, considering different discriminator families.
result The existence of Nash equilibrium depends on the discriminator family and symmetry properties of the generator family.
Study on equilibrium with non-convex preferences.
problem Existence of equilibrium in non-convex preference settings.
method Provided a necessary and sufficient condition for equilibrium existence.
result Standard equilibrium theory cannot be applied to non-convex preferences.
We combine general equilibrium theory and theorie generale of stochastic processes to derive structural results about equilibrium state prices.
The theorems we proved describe the structure of economic equilibrium in the exchange economy model. We have studied the structure of property vectors under given structure of demand vectors at which given price vector is equilibrium one. On this ground, we describe the general structure of the equilibrium state and gi…
Study equilibrium consumption habits in a large population using mean field games.
problem Equilibrium consumption under external habit formation in a large population.
method Formulated and solved mean field games for linear and multiplicative habit formation preferences, constructed approximate Nash equilibria for large n-player games.
result Characterized mean field equilibrium strategies and derived financial implications.
By generalizing the measurements on the game experiments of mixed strategy Nash equilibrium, we study the dynamical pattern in a representative dynamic stochastic general equilibrium (DSGE). The DSGE model describes the entanglements of the three variables (output gap [], inflation [] and nominal interest rate [$…
We construct continuous-time equilibrium models based on a finite number of exponential utility investors. The investors' income rates as well as the stock's dividend rate are governed by discontinuous Levy processes. Our main result provides the equilibrium (i.e., bond and stock price dynamics) in closed-form. As an a…
Study analyzes market equilibrium returns with price impact and transaction costs.
problem Modeling equilibrium returns in markets with strategic order placement and transaction costs.
method Analyzes frictionless and transaction-cost markets, characterizes Nash equilibrium via FBSDEs.
result Equilibrium returns are affected by transaction costs, especially with noise traders.
DEQs converge to optimal solutions with mild over-parameterization.
problem Training over-parameterized deep equilibrium models.
method Solves equilibrium point directly, uses gradient descent, and analyzes convergence via linear rate.
result Gradient descent converges to a globally optimal solution at a linear rate for quadratic loss.
We study nonzero-sum hypothesis testing games that arise in the context of adversarial classification, in both the Bayesian as well as the Neyman-Pearson frameworks. We first show that these games admit mixed strategy Nash equilibria, and then we examine some interesting concentration phenomena of these equilibria. Our…
Kyle's equilibrium model stability proven for 1-2 trading times, but not for 3 or more.
problem Stability of Kyle's equilibrium model in a dynamic trading setting.
method Proof of stability for 1-2 trading times, non-stability for 3 or more trading times, independent of input parameters.
result Kyle's equilibrium model is stable for 1-2 trading times but not for 3 or more trading times.
A Finsler Geometrical Programming for the Nonlinear Complementarity Problem of Traffic Equilibriummath.OC
Geometric programming approach for traffic equilibrium problems.
problem Optimizing traffic equilibrium in transportation systems.
method Finslerian dynamical model for nonlinear complementarity problems.
result Effective solution for various equilibrium problems in transportation.
The current interpretation of stochastic gradient descent (SGD) as a stochastic process lacks generality in that its numerical scheme restricts continuous-time dynamics as well as the loss function and the distribution of gradient noise. We introduce a simplified scheme with milder conditions that flexibly interprets S…
In this paper, we study dynamics of geodesic flows over closed surfaces of genus greater than or equal to 2 without focal points. Especially, we prove that there is a large class of potentials having unique equilibrium states, including scalar multiples of the geometric potential, provided the scalar is less than 1. Mo…
Quasitoric manifolds, introduced by M. Davis and T. Januskiewicz in 1991, are topological generalizations of smooth complex projective spaces. In 1992, Banchoff and Kühnel constructed a 10-vertex equilibrium triangulations of $\CP^2$. We generalize this construction for quasitoric manifolds and construct some equilibri…
A Systemic Optimal Risk Transfer Equilibrium (SORTE) was introduced in: "Systemic optimal risk transfer equilibrium", Mathematics and Financial Economics (2021), for the analysis of the equilibrium among financial institutions or in insurance-reinsurance markets. A SORTE conjugates the classical Bühlmann's notion of a …
Recent work has explored transforming data sets into smaller, approximate summaries in order to scale Bayesian inference. We examine a related problem in which the parameters of a Bayesian model are very large and expensive to store in memory, and propose more compact representations of parameter values that can be use…
Existence of incomplete Radner equilibrium with endogenous noise tracker.
problem Existence of incomplete Radner equilibrium in a model with endogenous noise tracker.
method Proved existence through a coupled system of ODEs, reduced to two coupled ODEs.
result Endogenous noise tracker leads to higher aggregate welfare for large stock supply.
Study proves existence of equilibrium in incomplete economies with discontinuous volatility.
problem Existence of incomplete Radner equilibrium with nondegenerate endogenous volatility.
method Established existence of solution for Markovian quadratic BSDEs with discontinuous generators using unique continuation and backward uniqueness.
result Existence of incomplete Radner equilibrium with nondegenerate endogenous volatility.
GANs may not have Nash equilibria, but proximal training can find solutions.
problem Existence of Nash equilibria in GANs optimization.
method Proximal training approach to find solutions.
result Proximal training finds solutions to GAN problems.
We present a simple dynamic equilibrium model for an online exchange where both buyers and sellers arrive according to a exogenously defined stochastic process. The structure of this exchange is motivated by the limit order book mechanism used in stock markets. Both buyers and sellers are elastic in the price-quantity …
We introduce a distributionally robust minimium mean square error estimation model with a Wasserstein ambiguity set to recover an unknown signal from a noisy observation. The proposed model can be viewed as a zero-sum game between a statistician choosing an estimator -- that is, a measurable function of the observation…
Study dynamic equilibrium with insider and general uninformed agent preferences.
problem Analyzing asymmetric information and general utility functions in a continuous-time economy.
method Introducing a new method to prove existence of a partial communication equilibrium (PCE) for agents with general utility functions.
result Identify the equilibrium price in the small and large risk aversion limits for agents with power utility.