Bayesian method for estimating ATE with robustness to model misspecification.
problem Estimating average treatment effects under unconfoundedness.
method Double robust Bayesian inference using adjusted prior and posterior distributions.
result Bayesian credible sets form asymptotically exact confidence intervals.
Bayesian inference engines improve density estimation accuracy and scalability.
problem Constructing accurate and scalable probability density functions.
method Bayesian inference engines (no-U-turn sampling and expectation propagation) with binning strategy.
result Density estimates have excellent comparative performance and scale well to large sample sizes.
Bayesian method improves estimation of unseen species.
problem Estimating unseen species in biological and physical sciences.
method Bayesian nonparametric approach with Pitman-Yor prior and Gaussian credible intervals.
result Improves asymptotic credible intervals for unseen species estimation.
BIGUE algorithm provides credible intervals for hyperbolic network embeddings.
problem Uncertainty in hyperbolic network embeddings.
method Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) algorithm for Bayesian hyperbolic random graph model.
result Samples from the posterior distribution provide credible intervals for hyperbolic coordinates and network properties.
Paper analyzes frequentist coverage and convergence rates in Gaussian process regression.
problem Understanding frequentist coverage and convergence rates in Gaussian process regression.
method Develops a Bernstein von-Mises type result and compares posterior distributions to population level GPs.
result Frequentist coverage probabilities of Bayesian credible intervals and bands converge to a non-degenerate value.
New method for credible intervals of Covid19 reproduction number.
problem Lack of credibility intervals in existing estimates.
method Combines Langevin Monte Carlo with Proximal operators.
result Produces credible intervals for reproduction number estimates.
Calibrates deep learning models to produce accurate uncertainty estimates.
problem Inaccurate uncertainty estimates in Bayesian and probabilistic models.
method Simple procedure inspired by Platt scaling to calibrate regression algorithms.
result Consistently produces well-calibrated credible intervals improving model performance.
Adapts Gaussian process surrogate evaluation with conformal prediction for better coverage guarantees.
problem Uncertainty quantification and model specification issues in Gaussian process surrogate models.
method Adaptive cross-conformal prediction intervals using posterior standard deviation weighting.
result Conformal prediction intervals provide significant correlation with surrogate model error and frequentist coverage guarantees.
Bayesian framework improves LLM evaluation stability and transparency.
problem Pass@k and avg@N are unstable and misleading for LLMs.
method Bayesian evaluation with posterior estimates and credible intervals.
result Posterior-based evaluation yields stable and transparent rankings.
Deep Bayesian neural networks effectively select variables with rigorous uncertainty quantification.
problem High-dimensional variable selection with uncertainty.
method Developed new Bayesian non-parametric theorems for deep BNNs.
result BNNs can learn variable importance effectively in high dimensions and rigorously quantify uncertainty.
New auction design uses statistical learning to reduce costs and improve fairness.
problem Designing efficient multi-item auctions with reduced implementation costs and fairness.
method Nonparametric density estimation for credible intervals, two new strategies.
result Strategies consistently outperform alternative methods in revenue maximization and cost reduction.
Paper introduces exact credible sets for classification problems.
problem No general way to construct exact credible sets for classification.
method Generalized credible set with connection to Neyman--Pearson lemma and randomized decision rule.
result Achieves any preassigned credible level for classification problems.
This paper develops a new method for online density estimation from noisy data.
problem Estimating probability density function from noisy streaming data.
method Quasi-Bayesian sequential deconvolution using Newton's algorithm.
result Sequential deconvolution estimate fn with large sample asymptotic guarantees. EBLIME enhances model explanations using Bayesian ridge regression.
problem Improving model explanations for black-box machine learning models.
method EBLIME uses Bayesian ridge regression to explain feature importance.
result EBLIME provides more intuitive and accurate feature importance rankings.
Paper compares Bayesian and de-biased estimators for low-rank matrix completion.
problem Predict missing entries in partially observed matrices.
method Bayesian and de-biased estimators comparison.
result De-biased estimator performs similarly to Bayesian estimators but is more stable and can outperform in small samples.
Bayesian methods improve nuclear mass predictions for unstable nuclei.
problem Improving predictions of nuclear masses far from stability.
method Bayesian Gaussian processes and neural networks applied to 10 models.
result Significant reduction in rms deviation from experimental data.
Credibility theory provides tools to obtain better estimates by combining individual data with sample information. We apply the Credibility theory to a Uniform distribution that is used in testing the reliability of forecasting an interest rate for long term horizons. Such empirical exercise is asked by Regulators (CRR…
Study uses Viber and street polls to estimate Belarus election ratings and turnout.
problem Obtaining accurate ratings of candidates in Belarus's banned polls.
method Bayesian multilevel regression with poststratification.
result Estimated ratings and turnout contradict official election results.
Discriminative jackknife estimates deep learning uncertainty.
problem Quantifying uncertainty in deep learning models.
method Discriminative jackknife using influence functions of loss.
result DJ satisfies frequentist coverage and discriminative accuracy.
DABS uses a policy network to select experiments in high-dimensional design spaces.
problem Adaptive factorial screening in high-dimensional discrete design spaces.
method DABS learns a policy network offline to sequentially select experiments, incorporating sparsity and interactions via a spike-and-slab prior.
result DABS achieves superior accuracy and scalability over classical and Bayesian baselines under tight experimental budgets.
Bayesian principles improve neural additive models for better feature selection and uncertainty.
problem Lack of calibrated uncertainties and feature selection in neural additive models.
method Augmenting NAMs with Bayesian principles to provide credible intervals, feature selection, and interaction ranking.
result Improved performance on tabular datasets and real-world medical tasks.
CP4SBI improves the calibration of credible sets in SBI models.
problem Inaccurate credible sets in SBI models lead to underestimation of true parameters.
method Develops a local conformal calibration framework for SBI models.
result Improves the quality of uncertainty quantification for neural posterior estimators.
EENNs improve inference efficiency but need nested prediction sets for reliable uncertainty estimates.
problem Non-nested prediction sets from standard uncertainty quantification methods in EENNs.
method Introduced anytime-valid confidence sequences (AVCSs) tailored for EENNs.
result AVCSs generate nested prediction sets across EENN exits, addressing the issue of non-nested sets.
Develops a new method for sampling from Bayesian credible sets using deep generative quantile learning.
problem Sampling from posterior distributions in high-dimensional spaces with intractable likelihoods.
method Uses deep neural networks to implicitly sample from Bayesian credible sets via a push-forward mapping and Monge-Kantorovich depth.
result Demonstrates improved performance and theoretical consistency of the quantile learning framework.
Bayesian framework improves reliability and consistency of model explanations.
problem Inconsistent and unreliable explanations from state-of-the-art methods.
method Developed a novel Bayesian framework for generating local explanations with associated uncertainty.
result Generated explanations are consistent, stable, and provide credible intervals for feature importances.
Bayesian methods improve group testing for identifying infected patients.
problem Identifying infected patients from group testing results with false positives.
method Bayesian inference and belief propagation algorithm, combined with expectation-maximization method.
result True-positive rate improved by considering credible intervals.
Unified Bayesian-AI framework improves epidemiological risk prediction and uncertainty quantification.
problem Lack of calibrated uncertainty in machine learning models for epidemiology.
method Combines Bayesian prediction with Bayesian hyperparameter optimization using logistic regression and Gaussian-process Bayesian optimization.
result Unified Bayesian-AI framework provides reliable coverage and improved calibration, enhancing epidemiological decision making.
This paper computes exact posterior distributions of mixture weights in hierarchical Bayesian models.
problem Uncertainty in class membership or data-generating processes in heterogeneous data.
method Exact marginalization of mixture weights using dynamic programming and FFT for two components, and joint dynamic program for K >= 3 components.
result Exact posterior distributions of mixture weights are finite mixtures of Beta distributions, providing credible intervals and per-observation local false-discovery rates.
A new method to estimate local volatility from high-frequency data.
problem Quantitative trading risk management needs a better way to estimate volatility.
method Realized local volatility surface estimated via high-frequency data and Bayesian nonparametric estimation.
result The method can capture counterfactual volatility and improve risk management.
New method for accurate uncertainty estimation in deep learning predictions.
problem Insufficient methods for assessing prediction uncertainty in deep learning.
method Valid non-parametric bootstrap method for deep neural networks.
result Accurate confidence intervals and simultaneous confidence bands for survival data.
Bayesian inference corrected for bias in high-dimensional models.
problem Bayesian inference for high-dimensional regression models often produces biased credible sets.
method Debiasing approach based on Bernstein-von Mises theorem.
result Frequentist validity of debiased Bayesian posterior.
New MCMC method estimates differential privacy from multiple MIAs without worst-case assumptions.
problem Bayesian estimation of differential privacy from membership inference attacks.
method Bayesian estimation via MCMC algorithm (MCMC-DP-Est).
result More cautious privacy analysis with joint estimation of MIA strengths and privacy parameter.
Generative sampler learns velocity fields for efficient posterior inference.
problem Sampling from complex posterior distributions in high dimensions.
method Generative multivariate posterior sampler via flow matching, learning a velocity field for a deterministic transport map.
result Conditional Brenier map enables fast generation of credible sets with theoretical consistency guarantees.
Paper introduces XBART for nonlinear regression, outperforming XGBoost.
problem Nonlinear regression problems, especially in speed and accuracy.
method Combines Bayesian modeling and recursive partitioning for efficient, accurate predictions.
result XBART provides faster and more accurate predictions than XGBoost.
Proposes a method to assess unobserved confounding effects in causal inference.
problem Assessing unobserved confounding in causal inference studies.
method Copula-based normalizing flows with sensitivity parameter ρ. result Estimates average causal effect (ACE) as a function of unobserved confounding strength.
Study evaluates quality of uncertainty estimates for neural networks.
problem Lack of principled assessment methods for evaluating uncertainty quality in deep learning.
method Statistical methods of frequentist interval coverage, interval width, and expected calibration error.
result Different UQ methods produce markedly different quality uncertainty estimates.
Randomized predictions ensure fair and accurate individual calibration in machine learning.
problem Systematic bias in typical calibration methods leads to unfair predictions for certain subgroups.
method Randomization of predictions to enforce individual calibration, trading off bias with variance.
result Randomized regression functions are more calibrated for arbitrary subgroups and achieve higher utility.
Bayesian method corrects bias in treatment effect estimation.
problem Estimating treatment effects from observational data with high-dimensional nuisance parameters.
method Bayesian debiasing, targeted modeling, sample splitting.
result Marginal posterior for ATE satisfies Bernstein-von Mises theorem under correct nuisance model specification.
Bayesian optimization tackles expensive cascade processes.
problem Optimizing multistage decision-making processes with expensive costs.
method Formulated as Bayesian optimization framework with two types of acquisition functions.
result Demonstrated effectiveness through numerical experiments and a solar cell simulator application.
CAVI speeds up Bayesian MIDAS regression by 107x-1,772x with similar accuracy.
problem Efficiently estimating Bayesian MIDAS regression models with many predictors.
method Coordinate Ascent Variational Inference (CAVI) for linear MIDAS regression.
result CAVI produces posterior means nearly identical to Gibbs sampling with significant speedup.
Bayesian approach improves uncertainty in deep learning models.
problem Uncertainty quantification in deep learning models.
method Bayesian point of view, Gaussian approximability, semi-parametric Bernstein-von Mises theorems.
result Bayesian credible regions have valid frequentist coverage, providing theoretical justification for deep learning.
Bayesian method corrects misspecified volatility estimation in high-frequency financial data.
problem Volatility estimation in financial data with infinite jump activity and microstructure noise.
method Proposes a misspecified posterior corrected by a simple estimate of the location shift and re-scaling of the log likelihood.
result Establishes a Bernstein-von Mises theorem for the adjusted posterior, showing asymptotic Gaussianity and consistent estimation.
Walley's Imprecise Dirichlet Model (IDM) for categorical i.i.d. data extends the classical Dirichlet model to a set of priors. It overcomes several fundamental problems which other approaches to uncertainty suffer from. Yet, to be useful in practice, one needs efficient ways for computing the imprecise=robust sets or i…
Bayesian deep learning reduces overfitting and uncertainty measurement.
problem Overfitting and lack of model uncertainty in deep neural networks.
method Variational inference to approximate posterior distribution with normal prior.
result Test error reduced by 15% compared to classical deep learning.
Unified framework for fair decision-making across diverse groups.
problem Statistical brittleness in fairness testing for small subgroups.
method Size-adaptive hypothesis testing framework.
result Validated approach for interpretable, statistically rigorous decisions.
BCPO optimizes offline RL policies by converting uncertainty into conservative bounds.
problem Offline RL's fragility under distribution shifts and model errors.
method Bayesian approach with credible lower bounds and KL regularization.
result BCPO yields an uncertainty-calibrated policy that avoids exploiting model errors.
Automatically differentiable estimation for BLP model reduces bias in demand estimation.
problem Estimating the BLP model with reduced bias and improved performance.
method Phrasing BLP as an automatically differentiable moment function, using CUE for estimation, and incorporating MCMC credible intervals.
result CUE estimation shows lower bias but higher MAE compared to 2S-GMM, with MCMC providing closest empirical coverage.
Proposes an alternative method for quantifying uncertainty in complex models.
problem Quantifying uncertainty in complex models and evaluations.
method Infinitesimally regularizes the training loss to assess downstream uncertainty.
result Provides reliable quantification of uncertainty and calibrated confidence intervals.