Bayesian networks are typically faithful, with implications for causal inference.
problem Determining the typicality of faithfulness in Bayesian networks.
method Analysis of Bayesian networks over a given DAG, parametrized by conditional exponential families, and nonparametric conditional densities.
result The faithful Bayesian networks are dense and open with respect to the total variation metric, extending existing results for specific classes of Bayesian networks.
Novel approach for estimating conditional expectations using Bayesian quadrature.
problem Estimating conditional expectations with costly evaluations.
method Probabilistic numerical methods incorporating prior smoothness knowledge.
result Fast convergence rate and uncertainty quantification.
Bayesian model estimates treatment effects near cutoffs in regression discontinuity designs.
problem Estimating conditional average treatment effects in regression discontinuity designs.
method Develops a Bayesian additive regression tree (BART) model with linear leaf-level regressions.
result Adapts to different slopes on the running variable near the cutoff, providing interpretable inference.
Unified framework for arbitrary conditional inference using AI and Bayesian methods.
problem Limited flexibility in existing conditional inference methods.
method Bayesian generative modeling with stochastic iterative algorithm.
result Single learned model for universal conditional prediction with uncertainty quantification.
The paper establishes conditions for Bayesian consistency in supremum metric.
problem Ensuring Bayesian consistency in the supremum metric.
method Using a triangle inequality and weak convergence, the paper establishes conditions for Bayesian consistency.
result Demonstrates supremum consistency with weaker conditions than previously used.
The paper studies conditions for exact posterior modeling in Bayesian networks.
problem Exact modeling of posterior distributions in Bayesian networks.
method Derives conditions for a recognition network to model the true posterior distribution exactly.
result Perfectness of the recognition network is crucial for local conditions to hold.
This paper improves learning uncertain Bayesian networks from incomplete data.
problem Learning conditional probabilities in Bayesian networks with limited data.
method Develops methods to estimate and quantify uncertainty in conditional probabilities with incomplete data.
result Improves state-of-the-art approaches for handling uncertain Bayesian networks with incomplete data.
Bayesian model for discrete data with conditional transformations.
problem Handling discrete ordinal and count data with excess zeros.
method Bayesian framework with conditional transformation functions and modular MCMC algorithm.
result Flexible modeling of linear and nonlinear covariate effects for ordinal and count data.
This article introduces a Bayesian nonparametric method for quantifying the relative evidence in a dataset in favour of the dependence or independence of two variables conditional on a third. The approach uses Polya tree priors on spaces of conditional probability densities, accounting for uncertainty in the form of th…
Conditional independence tests (CI tests) have received special attention lately in Machine Learning and Computational Intelligence related literature as an important indicator of the relationship among the variables used by their models. In the field of Probabilistic Graphical Models (PGM)--which includes Bayesian Net…
Unified derivation of PAC-Bayes and MI bounds for general VC classes with fast rates.
problem Generalization bounds for machine learning models with VC classes.
method Unified derivation of conditional PAC-Bayesian and mutual information bounds, including MAC-Bayesian bounds.
result Nontrivial bounds for general VC classes and faster rates for specific conditions.
Convolutional Bayesian filtering generalizes state estimation by incorporating inequality conditions.
problem Standard Bayesian filtering assumes exact conditional probabilities, limiting its applicability.
method Introducing inequality conditions transforms conditional probabilities into convolutional forms, expanding the filtering framework.
result Convolutional Bayesian filtering encompasses standard Bayesian filtering and allows for more nuanced model consideration.
Bayesian methods improve DiD analysis for ATT estimation.
problem Estimating ATT in DiD designs with improved accuracy.
method Semiparametric Bayesian outcome regression and doubly robust adjustment.
result Bayesian methods provide strong finite-sample performance.
New algorithms learn simple staged trees from data, improving model fit.
problem Complex conditional independences in categorical data vectors.
method Structural learning algorithms for simple staged trees, coalescing the underlying tree.
result Data-learned simple staged trees often outperform Bayesian networks in model fit.
When performing regression or classification, we are interested in the conditional probability distribution for an outcome or class variable Y given a set of explanatoryor input variables X. We consider Bayesian models for this task. In particular, we examine a special class of models, which we call Bayesian regression…
In this paper, we study the problem of structure learning for Bayesian networks in which nodes take discrete values. The problem is NP-hard in general but we show that under certain conditions we can recover the true structure of a Bayesian network with sufficient number of samples. We develop a mathematical model whic…
New method for Bayesian inference in infinite dimensions using SDMs.
problem Bayesian inference in infinite-dimensional function spaces.
method Amortized conditional score-based diffusion models (SDMs).
result Validated approach for large-scale, discretization-invariant Bayesian inference.
New tools for constructing disintegrations and studying their modes.
problem Difficulty in constructing disintegrations and understanding their modes.
method Developed comprehensive mathematical tools for constructing disintegrations and analyzing their modes.
result Disagreement between restricted density and disintegration density in certain cases.
Proposes a new model for predicting chronic conditions over time.
problem Predicting complex relationships between multiple chronic conditions.
method Continuous time Bayesian network with adaptive regularization for structure and parameter learning.
result Proposed model provides sparse, intuitive representation of chronic condition relationships.
Improved Bayesian optimization for conditional parameter spaces.
problem Efficient global optimization of expensive-to-evaluate functions in conditional parameter spaces.
method Additive tree-structured covariance function for conditional parameter optimization.
result Significantly improved sample-efficiency and wider applicability compared to existing methods.
In this paper, we provide a method to learn the directed structure of a Bayesian network using data. The data is accessed by making conditional probability queries to a black-box model. We introduce a notion of simplicity of representation of conditional probability tables for the nodes in the Bayesian network, that we…
Optimal Bayesian feature filtering (OBF) is a supervised screening method designed for biomarker discovery. In this article, we prove two major theoretical properties of OBF. First, optimal Bayesian feature selection under a general family of Bayesian models reduces to filtering if and only if the underlying Bayesian m…
Develops theory for conditional optimal transport in infinite-dimensional spaces.
problem Bayesian inference with functional parameters in infinite-dimensional spaces.
method Theory of constrained optimal transport for block-triangular maps.
result Regularity estimates on conditioning maps from prior to posterior.
We compress large neural networks for quick adaptation to specific contexts.
problem How to quickly adapt a pretrained large neural network to specific contexts.
method Propose a Bayesian hypernetwork framework to compress the network and encourage sparsity.
result Generated compressed networks are significantly smaller than baseline methods.
DiBS learns Bayesian network structure and parameters efficiently.
problem Bayesian structure learning with uncertainty reasoning.
method Differentiable framework for continuous latent graph representation, agnostic to local conditional distributions.
result Significantly outperforms related approaches in posterior inference.
Bayesian method improves SOM training for dynamic data.
problem Training Self Organizing Maps (SOM) for non-stationary data.
method Variational Bayesian approach with adaptive neighborhood radius.
result Method outperforms other adaptive methods in high dimensions.
In practical Bayesian optimization, we must often search over structures with differing numbers of parameters. For instance, we may wish to search over neural network architectures with an unknown number of layers. To relate performance data gathered for different architectures, we define a new kernel for conditional p…
We develop the first Bayesian Optimization algorithm, BLOSSOM, which selects between multiple alternative acquisition functions and traditional local optimization at each step. This is combined with a novel stopping condition based on expected regret. This pairing allows us to obtain the best characteristics of both lo…
Conditional Autoregressive Value-at-Risk and Conditional Autoregressive Expectile have become two popular approaches for direct measurement of market risk. Since their introduction several improvements both in the Bayesian and in the classical framework have been proposed to better account for asymmetry and local non-l…
Semiparametric Bayesian networks combine parametric and nonparametric models for flexible data analysis.
problem Combining the advantages of parametric and nonparametric models for flexible data analysis.
method Semiparametric Bayesian networks combining parametric and nonparametric conditional probability distributions. Modifications of two algorithms for structure learning from data.
result Accurately learns the combination of parametric and nonparametric components, comparable to state-of-the-art methods.
Study high-dimensional Bayesian linear regression using variational inference.
problem High-dimensional Bayesian linear regression with product priors.
method Non-linear large deviations theory and variational inference.
result Unique optimizer in variational problem governs posterior distribution under separation condition.
This paper provides a PAC-Bayesian bound for CVaR in machine learning.
problem Learning algorithms minimizing CVaR of empirical loss.
method Generalization bound of PAC-Bayesian type, reducing CVaR estimation to expectation estimation.
result The bound is small when empirical CVaR is small, providing concentration inequalities for CVaR.
Bayesian approach for policy search in stochastic domains.
problem Policy search in stochastic domains.
method Nested probabilistic programs, Lightweight Metropolis-Hastings (LMH) adaptation.
result Similar quality policies learned with simpler algorithm.
The paper solves IRL for Bayesian stopping time problems.
problem Identifying optimal actions in Bayesian stopping time problems.
method Novel IRL framework using Bayesian revealed preferences.
result Identifies optimality and constructs cost function estimates.
Efficiently designs experiments without integrating posterior distributions.
problem Computational inefficiency in Bayesian experimental design for PDE-based models.
method Likelihood-free approach using ANN to approximate conditional expectation.
result Significant reduction in observation model evaluations.
MIRA scores assess conditional distribution accuracy using joint samples.
problem Assessing the accuracy of candidate conditional distributions.
method Analytic expression for Mira score based on equal probability mass regions.
result Mira enables Bayesian model comparison by quantifying alignment with true process.
Stable topological summary captures evolving dependency structure in dynamic Bayesian networks.
problem Missing larger-scale patterns in evolving dependency structures in dynamic Bayesian networks.
method Topological approach using Dynamic Bayesian Graphs and persistent homology.
result Stable topological summary (barcodes) captures evolving dependency structure in DBNs.
Traditional GANs use a deterministic generator function (typically a neural network) to transform a random noise input z to a sample x that the discriminator seeks to distinguish. We propose a new GAN called Bayesian Conditional Generative Adversarial Networks (BC-GANs) that use a random generator function…
In this work, dynamic Bayesian multinets are introduced where a Markov chain state at time t determines conditional independence patterns between random variables lying within a local time window surrounding t. It is shown how information-theoretic criterion functions can be used to induce sparse, discriminative, and c…
In this article, we investigate large sample properties of model selection procedures in a general Bayesian framework when a closed form expression of the marginal likelihood function is not available or a local asymptotic quadratic approximation of the log-likelihood function does not exist. Under appropriate identifi…
Develops methods for constructing likelihoods and priors for Bayesian networks.
problem Learning parameters and structure of Bayesian networks from limited data.
method Introduces assumptions for constructing likelihoods and priors from small assessments.
result Allows construction of likelihoods and priors for a wide range of network structures.
Improving Bayesian Optimization via Training-Aware Conditional Diffusion Models
problem Bayesian Optimization
method Bayesian Optimization with Conditional Diffusion Models
result DMS outperforms standard BO baselines
The paper refines NOTEARS for learning Bayesian networks, improving accuracy and efficiency.
problem Learning Bayesian networks from continuous optimization.
method Generalized algebraic characterizations and Karush-Kuhn-Tucker (KKT) conditions for optimization.
result Local search post-processing improves structural Hamming distance by a factor of 2 or more.
New Bayesian method for estimating portfolio VaR and CVaR that adapts to volatility changes.
problem Estimating VaR and CVaR of portfolios in volatile markets.
method Volatility-sensitive Bayesian estimation using conjugate priors and rolling window sizes.
result The new method provides better risk estimation, especially during turbulent periods.
A new algorithm optimizes unknown functions with noisy data and unmatched features.
problem Sequentially maximizing a function with unknown and noisy data and features not under control.
method Bayesian conditional mean embedding and Gaussian process for uncertainty.
result Empirically outperforms state-of-the-art algorithms.
Two neural network methods approximate conditional optimal transport for Bayesian inference.
problem Approximating conditional optimal transport for Bayesian inference in high dimensions.
method Neural network approximations of conditional optimal transport maps.
result Improved scalability and modeling choices for conditional sampling and density estimation.
Transformers can simulate MLE for Bayesian network sequences.
problem Understanding transformers' capabilities in Bayesian network sequence generation.
method In-context maximum likelihood estimation (MLE) for autoregressive sequence generation.
result A simple transformer model can estimate Bayesian network probabilities and generate new samples.
Classifiers based on probabilistic graphical models are very effective. In continuous domains, maximum likelihood is usually used to assess the predictions of those classifiers. When data is scarce, this can easily lead to overfitting. In any probabilistic setting, Bayesian averaging (BA) provides theoretically optimal…