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arXiv research

A locally-built, LLM-digested index of recent arXiv papers in quant finance, geometry/topology, and statistical ML — keyword search served straight from SQLite on this machine.

169,341 papers · 148 categories

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52104156208 · Jun 202019922001200920182026
48 results for Bayesian ascent Monte Carlo

BaMC algorithm speeds up MAP estimation in probabilistic programs.

problem Efficiently estimating maximum a posteriori probability in probabilistic models.
method Bayesian ascent Monte Carlo (BaMC) algorithm for MAP search in probabilistic programs.
result BaMC is faster and more robust than other MAP estimation algorithms.

CAVI speeds up Bayesian MIDAS regression by 107x-1,772x with similar accuracy.

problem Efficiently estimating Bayesian MIDAS regression models with many predictors.
method Coordinate Ascent Variational Inference (CAVI) for linear MIDAS regression.
result CAVI produces posterior means nearly identical to Gibbs sampling with significant speedup.

Efficiently identifies important variables in binary outcomes using variational Bayes.

problem Bayesian variable selection for binary outcomes with computational challenges.
method Mean-field variational Bayes approximation with closed-form updates and efficient inference algorithm.
result Successfully identifies important variables and is orders of magnitude faster than MCMC.

Improved Hamiltonian Monte Carlo for Bayesian inference reduces variance and improves performance.

problem Efficiently sampling from posterior distributions in Bayesian inference with stochastic gradients.
method Variance reduction techniques applied to Hamiltonian Monte Carlo.
result Theoretical and experimental improvements in convergence and performance compared to variance-reduced Langevin dynamics.

Bayesian entity resolution merges together multiple, noisy databases and returns the minimal collection of unique individuals represented, together with their true, latent record values. Bayesian methods allow flexible generative models that share power across databases as well as principled quantification of uncertain…

2014-10-17abs ↗pdf ↗

ParaMonte::Python streamlines Bayesian data analysis with fast Monte Carlo and MCMC routines.

problem Efficiently sampling posterior distributions in Bayesian modeling and data science.
method Serial and MPI-parallelized Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) routines.
result Automated model calibration and uncertainty quantification in Bayesian analysis.

SBMC method improves uncertainty estimation in deep learning models.

problem Improving uncertainty quantification in deep learning models.
method A scalable Bayesian Monte Carlo method using a model and parallel SMC/MCMC algorithm.
result SBMC achieves comparable or better accuracy and improved uncertainty quantification compared to state-of-the-art methods.

Innovative inequalities for divergences with applications in PAC-Bayesian bounds and Monte Carlo.

problem Developing new inequalities for divergences.
method Introducing novel change of measure inequalities for ff-divergences and αα-divergences.
result Applications in PAC-Bayesian bounds and Monte Carlo estimates.

Noisy natural gradient improves variational inference for Bayesian neural nets.

problem Tradeoff between simple and complex variational families in Bayesian neural nets.
method Adaptive weight noise in natural gradient ascent to implicitly fit variational posteriors.
result Noisy natural gradient algorithms can train full-covariance variational posteriors efficiently.

Bayesian optimization improves Monte-Carlo tree search for better state value estimation.

problem Slow convergence in Monte-Carlo tree search due to averaging in backpropagation.
method Softmax MCTS and Monotone MCTS, using Bayesian optimization with Gaussian process prior.
result Our framework outperforms previous methods in computer Go.

We develop a new method to estimate failure probabilities in complex systems.

problem Estimating failure probabilities in safety-critical autonomous systems is challenging due to the rarity of failures and large state spaces.
method We propose an adaptive importance sampling algorithm that minimizes forward Kullback-Leibler divergence and uses Markov score ascent methods.
result Our method provides more accurate failure probability estimates than existing techniques.

A new variational method speeds up Bayesian phylogenetic inference.

problem Slow and inefficient MCMC methods in Bayesian phylogenetic inference.
method Combining subsplit Bayesian networks with variational inference for efficient tree topology and branch length estimation.
result Variational approach provides competitive performance with significantly fewer iterations.

New method uses diffusion models for Bayesian inverse problems.

problem Solving Bayesian inverse problems with linear-Gaussian models.
method Decoupled Diffusion Sequential Monte Carlo (DDSMC) method.
result Asymptotically exact solution demonstrated on various data types.

The hybrid Monte Carlo (HMC) algorithm is used for Bayesian analysis of the generalized autoregressive conditional heteroscedasticity (GARCH) model. The HMC algorithm is one of Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) algorithms and it updates all parameters at once. We demonstrate that how the HMC reproduces the GARCH paramete…

2007-02-27abs ↗pdf ↗

Improves sampling efficiency for complex Bayesian models.

problem Inference challenges in hierarchical Gaussian-process models.
method Optimised Riemannian-manifold Hamiltonian Monte Carlo (RMHMC) with dynamic programming.
result Significant improvement in sampling efficiency and model evidence calculation.

Paper assesses adversarial robustness of MCMC and BDK methods for deep Bayesian networks.

problem Assessing adversarial robustness of deep neural networks under MCMC and BDK approximations.
method Characterizes robustness of MCMC and BDK methods to FGSM and PGD attacks.
result Full MCMC-based inference shows excellent robustness, outperforming standard point estimation.

ParaMonte simplifies Monte Carlo simulations for various scientific fields.

problem Efficiently performing Monte Carlo simulations for complex models.
method Unified, high-performance, parallelized library for C, C++, Fortran.
result Automates and streamlines Monte Carlo sampling for arbitrary-dimensional functions.

This paper introduces a set of algorithms for Monte-Carlo Bayesian reinforcement learning. Firstly, Monte-Carlo estimation of upper bounds on the Bayes-optimal value function is employed to construct an optimistic policy. Secondly, gradient-based algorithms for approximate upper and lower bounds are introduced. Finally…

2013-03-11abs ↗pdf ↗

Bayesian inference using stochastic neural networks ensembles.

problem Approximating Bayesian posterior distributions.
method Formulate stochastic ensembles of neural networks, train with variational inference, and evaluate using Monte Carlo dropout.
result Stochastic ensembles provide more accurate posterior estimates than other methods.

The paper improves predictive uncertainty estimation using Dropout and Hamiltonian Monte Carlo.

problem Improving predictive uncertainty in classification tasks.
method Combining Dropout regularization and Hamiltonian Monte Carlo for Bayesian inference.
result The method effectively estimates predictive accuracy and generalizes better for difficult test examples.

FA-HMC improves Bayesian federated learning with rigorous guarantees.

problem Parameter estimation and uncertainty quantification in non-iid distributed data.
method Federated Averaging stochastic Hamiltonian Monte Carlo (FA-HMC) with convergence guarantees.
result FA-HMC achieves better convergence and communication efficiency than existing methods.

FBMS R package simplifies Bayesian model selection and averaging.

problem Complex regression settings with multi-modal posterior landscapes.
method Efficient MJMCMC and GMJMCMC algorithms for Bayesian model exploration.
result FBMS effectively handles Bayesian generalized linear and nonlinear models.

KMC uses gradient-free Hamiltonian Monte Carlo with efficient approximations for sampling.

problem Sampling from complex, intractable target densities.
method Adaptive MCMC based on Hamiltonian Monte Carlo with efficient kernel approximations.
result Substantial mixing improvements over gradient-free samplers.

Improved Bayesian regression for large datasets using multilevel Gibbs sampling.

problem Efficiently handling large-scale Bayesian regression with complex posterior distributions.
method Developed a multilevel Gibbs sampler for linear mixed models, incorporating data clustering and correlated samples for variance reduction.
result Significant speed-up achieved for Bayesian regression without sacrificing predictive performance.

A new method combines classification with population Monte Carlo for efficient ABC.

problem Inefficient particle proposals and subjectivity in ABC methods.
method Classification-PMC, blending adaptive proposals and classification.
result Classification-PMC outperforms state-of-the-art ABC methods in simulations.

Mesoscopic model infers neural population dynamics from spike trains.

problem Challenges in fitting mechanistic spiking networks to empirical population data.
method Fit mesoscopic model to aggregate population activity, using likelihood of single-neuron and connectivity parameters.
result Extracts posterior correlations between model parameters and defines subsets of parameters able to reproduce data.

Proposes a method to stabilize Black Box Variational Inference using the James-Stein estimator.

problem Stability issues and fine-tuning required in basic Black Box Variational Inference.
method Reframe stochastic gradient ascent as multivariate estimation problem using James-Stein estimator.
result Provides a simpler method with consistent performance in terms of model fit and convergence time.

A new metric tensor improves Riemann manifold Monte Carlo for Bayesian models.

problem Improving sampling efficiency in Bayesian hierarchical models.
method Metric tensor derived from log-density gradient covariance matrices.
result Metric tensors enhance sampling for complex Bayesian models.