Enhances Bayesian learning with rule-based evolutionary techniques.
problem Improving Bayesian inference with expert knowledge and data patterns.
method Combines Bayesian inference with rule-based systems and grammatical evolution.
result Automatically derives rules from data, improving point predictions and uncertainty quantification.
RSI uses Bayesian inference to monitor compliance in rule-governed domains.
problem Structural obstacles in compliance monitoring, including unlabeled outcomes and selective withholding of evidence.
method Rule-State Inference (RSI) treats formalized rules as Bayesian priors and infers compliance states through mean-field variational inference.
result RSI delivers formal guarantees of adaptability, consistency, and convergence, validated on a synthetic enterprise benchmark.
Bayesian learning rule unifies and generalizes various machine learning algorithms.
problem Machine learning algorithms are diverse and not always understood.
method Bayesian principles and natural gradients are used to derive algorithms.
result Derives a wide range of algorithms including classical and modern ones.
Introduces a rule-based Bayesian regression for better uncertainty quantification and expert knowledge integration.
problem Handling regression problems with uncertainty quantification and expert intuition.
method Combines Bayesian inference and rule-based systems for better model performance.
result Improves model performance with better uncertainty quantification and point predictions.
Bayesian method infers local rules for collective animal movement.
problem Learn local rules governing long-term group behaviors.
method Bayesian Inverse Reinforcement Learning with Linearly-Solvable Markov Decision Process.
result Recover true costs and find value of collective movement.
Paper proves Jeffrey's update rule minimizes relative entropy.
problem Improving Bayesian learning algorithms.
method More concise proof of Jeffrey's update rule.
result Jeffrey's update rule reduces relative entropy.
In this paper, we derive a Bayesian model order selection rule by using the exponentially embedded family method, termed Bayesian EEF. Unlike many other Bayesian model selection methods, the Bayesian EEF can use vague proper priors and improper noninformative priors to be objective in the elicitation of parameter prior…
New learning rule simplifies Bayesian updates for deep learning.
problem Bayesian learning rule's complexity and manifold constraints.
method Lie-group approach to simplify Bayesian updates.
result New algorithm learns sparse features in deep learning.
A new stopping rule based on E-values helps efficiently use sampling in Bayesian Deep Ensembles.
problem How long should sampling continue in Bayesian Deep Ensembles to yield significant improvements?
method Formulated as a sequential anytime-valid hypothesis test, using E-values to decide when to stop sampling.
result Only a fraction of the full-chain budget is often required for significant improvements.
We consider the problem of how decision making can be fair when the underlying probabilistic model of the world is not known with certainty. We argue that recent notions of fairness in machine learning need to explicitly incorporate parameter uncertainty, hence we introduce the notion of {\em Bayesian fairness} as a su…
This research improves binary classification by balancing overfitting and generalization with a novel Bayesian approach.
problem Improving binary classification models to avoid overfitting and generalize well.
method Introduces a PAC-Bayes type learning rule with a balancing parameter λ to balance training error and KL divergence to a prior.
result A choice of λ ensures uniformly vanishing excess loss, even in the agnostic case, by under-regularizing or over-regularizing appropriately.
Proposes an alternative method to train RBMs with binary synapses using Bayesian learning rule.
problem Training RBMs with binary synapses is challenging due to discrete nature of synapses.
method Proposes an alternative optimization method using the Bayesian learning rule, updating natural parameters instead of expectation parameters.
result No additional clipping is needed as natural parameters take values in the entire real domain.
Kernel Bayesian inference is a principled approach to nonparametric inference in probabilistic graphical models, where probabilistic relationships between variables are learned from data in a nonparametric manner. Various algorithms of kernel Bayesian inference have been developed by combining kernelized basic probabil…
Bayesian optimization stops when a solution is within ε of the optimum with high probability.
problem Stopping Bayesian optimization prematurely based on a probabilistic criterion.
method Introducing a (ε,δ)-criterion for stopping Bayesian optimization. result Bayesian optimization satisfies the (ε,δ)-criterion under mild assumptions. Bayesian neural networks are shown to be minimax and admissible under certain conditions.
problem Optimality of Bayesian neural networks in deep learning models.
method Analysis of decision rules induced by BNNs in the normal location model under quadratic loss.
result A hyperprior on the effective output variance yields a minimax and admissible decision rule.
Kernel Bayes' rule has been proposed as a nonparametric kernel-based method to realize Bayesian inference in reproducing kernel Hilbert spaces. However, we demonstrate both theoretically and experimentally that the prediction result by kernel Bayes' rule is in some cases unnatural. We consider that this phenomenon is i…
Oblique BART improves tree-based predictions.
problem Axis-aligned decision rules in BART can be suboptimal.
method Developed an oblique version of BART using data-adaptive hyperplane partitions.
result Oblique BART outperformed axis-aligned BART and other tree methods on benchmarks.
The Bayesian learning rule is a natural-gradient variational inference method, which not only contains many existing learning algorithms as special cases but also enables the design of new algorithms. Unfortunately, when variational parameters lie in an open constraint set, the rule may not satisfy the constraint and r…
This work improves Bayesian Optimization for setting DNN hyper-parameters.
problem Manual setting of DNN hyper-parameters is error-prone and computationally expensive.
method Combines Bayesian Optimization with tuning rules to reduce search space and improve accuracy.
result Improves efficiency and accuracy of hyper-parameter tuning for deep neural networks.
A novel Bayesian computation method using importance weighting improves numerical stability and performance.
problem Bayesian computation stability and performance issues.
method Nonparametric approach via feature means, importance weighting, and kernel Bayes' rule.
result Importance weighted kernel Bayes' rule yields superior numerical stability and performance.
HRTPP improves TPP interpretability and accuracy in medical event modeling.
problem Lack of interpretability in TPPs for medical event sequences.
method Hybrid-Rule Temporal Point Processes (HRTPP) integrating temporal logic rules and numerical features.
result HRTPP outperforms state-of-the-art interpretable TPPs in predictive performance and clinical interpretability.
This paper establishes the asymptotic consistency of the {\it loss-calibrated variational Bayes} (LCVB) method. LCVB was proposed in~\cite{LaSiGh2011} as a method for approximately computing Bayesian posteriors in a `loss aware' manner. This methodology is also highly relevant in general data-driven decision-making con…
SBAMDT uses adaptive soft splits to model complex decision boundaries.
problem Limited ability of standard decision trees to capture complex decision boundaries.
method Probabilistic additive decision tree model with adaptive soft multivariate splits.
result Demonstrated improved predictive performance on synthetic and real datasets.
In this paper we propose a novel approach for learning from data using rule based fuzzy inference systems where the model parameters are estimated using Bayesian inference and Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) techniques. We show the applicability of the method for regression and classification tasks using synthetic data…
Bayesian neural networks update beliefs with soft evidence, improving accuracy and calibration.
problem Updating neural network weights with uncertain or soft evidence.
method Developed two algorithms to approximate Jeffrey's rule for updating neural network weights.
result Jeffrey-based methods outperform traditional approaches in accuracy and calibration, especially in noisy data.
In a recent paper [1] we introduced the Fuzzy Bayesian Learning (FBL) paradigm where expert opinions can be encoded in the form of fuzzy rule bases and the hyper-parameters of the fuzzy sets can be learned from data using a Bayesian approach. The present paper extends this work for selecting the most appropriate rule b…
New decision-theoretic characterization separates belief and decision posteriors.
problem Understanding the conditions under which loss-based updating coincides with Bayesian updating.
method Decision-theoretic approach to distinguish belief and decision posteriors.
result Generalized Bayes coincides with ordinary Bayesian updating only if the loss is proportional to negative log-likelihood.
Bayesian model estimates ACT impact on pediatric AML survival.
problem Estimating ACT impact on survival in AML patients with treatment timing issues.
method Generative Bayesian semi-parametric model with Gamma Process priors.
result Posterior inference for ACT efficacy under dynamic rules.
When people learn mathematical patterns or sequences, they are able to identify the concepts (or rules) underlying those patterns. Having learned the underlying concepts, humans are also able to generalize those concepts to other numbers, so far as to even identify previously unseen combinations of those rules. Current…
We aim to produce predictive models that are not only accurate, but are also interpretable to human experts. Our models are decision lists, which consist of a series of if...then... statements (e.g., if high blood pressure, then stroke) that discretize a high-dimensional, multivariate feature space into a series of sim…
Improving Bayesian filtering with strictly proper scoring rules
problem Bayesian filtering of partially and noisily observed dynamical systems
method Proper scoring ensemble filter (PSEF)
result Accurate approximation of challenging filtering distributions
We propose a probabilistic framework to directly insert prior knowledge in reinforcement learning (RL) algorithms by defining the behaviour policy as a Bayesian posterior distribution. Such a posterior combines task specific information with prior knowledge, thus allowing to achieve transfer learning across tasks. The …
Bayesian RL tackles uncertainty with deep generative models and sequential samplers.
problem Optimal decision-making in uncertain environments with limited data.
method Bayesian approach using deep generative models and prequential scoring rule for posterior inference. Policy learning via expected Thompson sampling.
result Improves policy learning in high-dimensional parameter spaces and continuous action spaces.
Neural networks with binary weights are computation-efficient and hardware-friendly, but their training is challenging because it involves a discrete optimization problem. Surprisingly, ignoring the discrete nature of the problem and using gradient-based methods, such as the Straight-Through Estimator, still works well…
New methods for Bayesian inference using mean shift particle systems.
problem Approximating expectations with unnormalized densities in Bayesian inference.
method Mean shift interacting particle systems that minimize maximum mean discrepancy (MMD).
result Mean shift interacting particle systems converge quickly and capture complex distributions.
New tuning rules for Metropolis algorithms derived from Bayesian large-sample asymptotics.
problem Optimal scaling in random-walk Metropolis algorithms under realistic assumptions.
method Large-sample asymptotics to derive weak convergence results and tuning guidelines.
result Tuning guidelines consistent with previous ones when target density is product form, accounting for correlation structure.
VB uses natural gradients in information geometry.
problem Estimating or computing natural gradients in VB.
method Natural-gradient descent algorithm and Bayesian Learning Rule.
result Simplification of Bayes' rule and generalization of quadratic surrogates.
Paper introduces exact credible sets for classification problems.
problem No general way to construct exact credible sets for classification.
method Generalized credible set with connection to Neyman--Pearson lemma and randomized decision rule.
result Achieves any preassigned credible level for classification problems.
PVI seeks a posterior that makes predictions closer to true data, not approximating the Bayesian posterior.
problem Finding meaningful posterior distributions under model misspecification.
method Predictive variational inference (PVI) seeks an optimal posterior density for close predictive matching to true data.
result PVI learns a posterior that is not the same as the Bayesian posterior, but is closer to the true data generating process.
This paper presents a convergence analysis of kernel-based quadrature rules in misspecified settings, focusing on deterministic quadrature in Sobolev spaces. In particular, we deal with misspecified settings where a test integrand is less smooth than a Sobolev RKHS based on which a quadrature rule is constructed. We pr…
Bayesian unlearning uses Bayes' rule to remove data from a model, but faces challenges in obtaining the exact posterior.
problem Removing data from a trained model while maintaining model accuracy.
method Uses Laplace approximation and Variational Inference to approximate the updated posterior.
result Insights on the applicability of Bayesian unlearning in practical scenarios for neural networks.
We investigate and provide new insights on the sampling rule called Top-Two Thompson Sampling (TTTS). In particular, we justify its use for fixed-confidence best-arm identification. We further propose a variant of TTTS called Top-Two Transportation Cost (T3C), which disposes of the computational burden of TTTS. As our …
Bayesian framework for policy learning in decision problems.
problem Maximizing expected welfare in decision-making problems.
method Loss-based Bayesian updating and squared-loss surrogate for welfare maximization.
result General Bayes posterior over decision rules with Gaussian pseudo-likelihood interpretation.
This paper develops a mathematical and computational framework for analyzing the expected performance of Bayesian data fusion, or joint statistical inference, within a sensor network. We use variational techniques to obtain the posterior expectation as the optimal fusion rule under a deterministic constraint and a quad…
Combines control variates and adaptive importance sampling for Monte Carlo integration.
problem Improving Monte Carlo integration accuracy with control variates and adaptive sampling.
method A quadrature rule combining control variates and adaptive importance sampling.
result Non-asymptotic bound on the probabilistic error of the procedure.
Despite their great success in recent years, deep neural networks (DNN) are mainly black boxes where the results obtained by running through the network are difficult to understand and interpret. Compared to e.g. decision trees or bayesian classifiers, DNN suffer from bad interpretability where we understand by interpr…
An expanding literature articulates the view that Taylor rules are helpful in predicting exchange rates. In a changing world however, Taylor rule parameters may be subject to structural instabilities, for example during the Global Financial Crisis. This paper forecasts exchange rates using such Taylor rules with Time V…
This paper improves bandwidth selectors for SPBNs to enhance their performance.
problem Suboptimal density estimation and reduced predictive performance in SPBNs due to normal rule bandwidth selection.
method Theoretical framework for state-of-the-art bandwidth selectors (cross-validation and plug-in methods) are established and evaluated.
result Cross-validation selectors outperform the normal rule, especially in high sample size scenarios.