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arXiv research

A locally-built, LLM-digested index of recent arXiv papers in quant finance, geometry/topology, and statistical ML — keyword search served straight from SQLite on this machine.

168,657 papers · 148 categories

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66132197263 · Jun 202019922001200920172026
48 results for Bayesian OED

GO-OED maximizes predictive information gain on nonlinear QoIs.

problem Maximizing information gain on nonlinear predictive quantities.
method Nested Monte Carlo estimator, Markov chain Monte Carlo, kernel density estimation, Bayesian optimization.
result GO-OED outperforms conventional OED in nonlinear settings.

A new method for experimental design focuses on predicting downstream quantities of interest.

problem Designs that maximize parameter learning may not maximize downstream quantity prediction.
method Likelihood-free goal-oriented optimal experimental design (LF-GO-OED) using ABC density ratio estimation.
result LF-GO-OED maximizes the expected information gain for downstream quantities.

New bounds for Bayesian bandits show prior improves performance.

problem Improving regret bounds for Bayesian bandits.
method Upper confidence bound algorithm with finite-time logarithmic regret bounds.
result Derives O(cΔlogn)O(c_Δ\log n) and O(chlog2n)O(c_h \log^2 n) upper bounds for Bayesian bandits.

New algorithm learns LQR with O(T)O(\sqrt{T}) regret using Langevin dynamics and excitation.

problem Learning LQR with a O(T)O(\sqrt{T}) regret bound.
method Thompson sampling with Langevin dynamics and excitation mechanism.
result Achieved O(T)O(\sqrt{T}) regret bound for LQR learning.

Sparse matrices simplify computation of GP variances and likelihoods.

problem Efficient computation of posterior variance and log-likelihood for additive Matérn GPs.
method Represented posterior mean, variance, log-likelihood, and gradient using sparse matrices.
result Efficient computation of posterior mean, variance, log-likelihood, and gradient in O(nlogn)O(n \log n) time.

We consider testing and learning problems on causal Bayesian networks as defined by Pearl (Pearl, 2009). Given a causal Bayesian network M\mathcal{M} on a graph with nn discrete variables and bounded in-degree and bounded `confounded components', we show that O(logn)O(\log n) interventions on an unknown causal Bayesian ne…

2018-05-24abs ↗pdf ↗

New algorithm robust to outliers in Bayesian Optimization.

problem Vulnerability of Bayesian Optimization to extreme outliers.
method Introduces a new adversary with a frequency-bounded corruption budget and derives RCGP-UCB algorithm.
result Achieves sublinear regret in the presence of up to O(T1/4)O(T^{1/4}) and O(T1/7)O(T^{1/7}) corruptions with possibly infinite magnitude.

We consider a Bayesian method for learning the Bayesian network structure from complete data. Recently, Koivisto and Sood (2004) presented an algorithm that for any single edge computes its marginal posterior probability in O(n 2^n) time, where n is the number of attributes; the number of parents per attribute is bound…

2012-06-27abs ↗pdf ↗

Paper improves regret bounds for Gaussian process upper confidence bound in Bayesian optimization.

problem Minimizing regret in Gaussian process bandit optimization.
method Gaussian process upper confidence bound (GP-UCB) algorithm with refined analysis.
result Achieves O(Tln2T)O(\sqrt{T \ln^2 T}) cumulative regret under squared exponential kernel.

Bayesian bandit algorithms with approximate inference improve regret bounds in stochastic linear bandits.

problem Theoretical justification for Bayesian bandit algorithms with approximate inference in stochastic linear bandits.
method Proposed a theoretical framework to analyze approximate inference impact and conducted frequentist regret analysis on LinTS and LinBUCB.
result LinTS and LinBUCB preserve their original regret upper bounds with larger constant terms in approximate inference settings.

vOED-NFs uses normalizing flows to improve Bayesian OED without likelihood evaluations.

problem Optimizing experiments to maximize information gain in model parameters.
method vOED-NFs combines variational approximations with normalizing flows for efficient EIG estimation.
result vOED-NFs achieves lower EIG estimation bias compared to previous methods.

New analysis shows scores learn data manifolds better than distributions.

problem Learning the full distribution vs. just the data manifold.
method Novel analysis of scores in the small-σ regime.
result Scores learn data manifold information Θ(σ2)Θ(σ^{-2}) stronger than distribution information.

Evaluating the log determinant of a positive definite matrix is ubiquitous in machine learning. Applications thereof range from Gaussian processes, minimum-volume ellipsoids, metric learning, kernel learning, Bayesian neural networks, Determinental Point Processes, Markov random fields to partition functions of discret…

2018-02-21abs ↗pdf ↗

Enhances RL with function approximation, improving regret bounds.

problem Improving exploration in reinforcement learning with function approximation.
method Prior-dependent Bayesian regret bound for PSRL with linear mixture MDPs, using value-targeted model learning and variance reduction.
result Established an upper bound of O(dH3TlogT){\mathcal{O}}(d\sqrt{H^3 T \log T}) for PSRL.

A new method reduces Volterra kernel complexity and uncertainty quantification.

problem Challenges in modeling nonlinear systems with Volterra series due to high model order.
method Bayesian Tensor Network Volterra kernel machines (BTN-V) using canonical polyadic decomposition.
result Competitive accuracy, enhanced uncertainty quantification, and reduced computational cost.

Herding and kernel herding are deterministic methods of choosing samples which summarise a probability distribution. A related task is choosing samples for estimating integrals using Bayesian quadrature. We show that the criterion minimised when selecting samples in kernel herding is equivalent to the posterior varianc…

2014-08-09abs ↗pdf ↗

Herding and kernel herding are deterministic methods of choosing samples which summarise a probability distribution. A related task is choosing samples for estimating integrals using Bayesian quadrature. We show that the criterion minimised when selecting samples in kernel herding is equivalent to the posterior varianc…

2012-04-07abs ↗pdf ↗

A new sampler speeds up Bayesian mixture models.

problem Sampling from Bayesian finite mixture models is slow and hard.
method Introduces a non-reversible sampling scheme for Bayesian finite mixture models.
result The new sampler outperforms classical samplers in many scenarios, especially during convergence.

Bayesian optimisation (BO) is a well-known efficient algorithm for finding the global optimum of expensive, black-box functions. The current practical BO algorithms have regret bounds ranging from O(logNN)\mathcal{O}(\frac{logN}{\sqrt{N}}) to O(eN)\mathcal O(e^{-\sqrt{N}}), where NN is the number of evaluations. This paper exp…

2021-05-10abs ↗pdf ↗

Gaussian processes (GPs) with derivatives are useful in many applications, including Bayesian optimization, implicit surface reconstruction, and terrain reconstruction. Fitting a GP to function values and derivatives at nn points in dd dimensions requires linear solves and log determinants with an ${n(d+1) \times n(d…

2018-10-29abs ↗pdf ↗

EBUCB framework achieves optimal regret with bounded approximate inference error.

problem Theoretical gap between practical performance and theoretical justification of Bayesian bandit algorithms with approximate inference.
method Enhanced Bayesian Upper Confidence Bound (EBUCB) framework that accommodates bandit problems with approximate inference.
result EBUCB achieves optimal regret order O(logT)O(\log T) under certain conditions on inference error.

Proposes TAGI for efficient Gaussian inference in Bayesian neural networks.

problem Efficient inference in Bayesian neural networks with complex architectures.
method Analytical method for tractable approximate Gaussian inference (TAGI).
result Matches performance of gradient-based methods with O(n)\mathcal{O}(n) computational complexity.

New method reduces SBL complexity from cubic to linear, improving scalability.

problem Sparse Bayesian Learning's high computational complexity for large feature spaces.
method DQN-SBL, a diagonal Quasi-Newton method for SBL.
result DQN-SBL achieves competitive generalization with sparse models, scaling well to large-scale problems.

Paper introduces IO-NPF for efficient Bayesian experimental design.

problem Efficient Bayesian experimental design in non-exchangeable settings.
method Inside-Out Nested Particle Filter (IO-NPF) for non-Markovian state-space models.
result IO-NPF achieves O(T2)\mathcal{O}(T^2) computational complexity, improving efficiency.

WBCP improves conformal prediction for distribution shifts using weighted Dirichlet posteriors.

problem Handling distribution shifts in conformal prediction.
method Generalizes Bayesian Quadrature Conformal Prediction (BQ-CP) to arbitrary importance-weighted settings.
result WBCP maintains coverage guarantees while providing richer uncertainty information.

We extend the herding algorithm to continuous spaces by using the kernel trick. The resulting "kernel herding" algorithm is an infinite memory deterministic process that learns to approximate a PDF with a collection of samples. We show that kernel herding decreases the error of expectations of functions in the Hilbert …

2012-03-15abs ↗pdf ↗

The paper addresses frequentist regret of Linear Thompson Sampling in stochastic linear bandits.

problem The frequentist regret of Linear Thompson Sampling (LinTS) is worse than its Bayesian counterpart.
method The paper proves the fundamental nature of the frequentist regret bound for LinTS and proposes a data-driven version of LinTS to achieve minimax optimal frequentist regret.
result The frequentist regret bound for LinTS is O~(ddT)\widetilde{\mathcal{O}}(d\sqrt{dT}), which is the best possible under certain conditions.

DeltaBO accelerates Bayesian optimization with theoretical guarantees.

problem Improving Bayesian optimization performance through knowledge transfer.
method DeltaBO algorithm that transfers knowledge from related source tasks to target tasks using the difference function.
result DeltaBO achieves a regret bound of O~(T(T/N+γδ))\widetilde{O}(\sqrt{T (T/N + γ_δ)}), significantly better than existing methods.

Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) algorithms are ubiquitous in Bayesian computations. However, they need to access the full data set in order to evaluate the posterior density at every step of the algorithm. This results in a great computational burden in big data applications. In contrast to MCMC methods, Stochastic Gra…

2016-09-15abs ↗pdf ↗

Bayesian framework calibrates imperfect models using physics-informed priors and Hamiltonian Monte Carlo.

problem Quantifying uncertainty in imperfect computer models described by differential equations.
method Physics-informed Gaussian process priors, discrepancy function, Hamiltonian Monte Carlo, data approximations.
result Framework accurately recovers true parameters and produces accurate predictions.

New meta-learning framework for minimizing simple regret in bandits.

problem Minimizing simple regret in a sequence of bandit tasks with unknown distributions.
method Developed Bayesian and frequentist meta-learning algorithms for bandits, analyzing their meta simple regret.
result Bayesian algorithm achieves ildeO(m/n) ilde{O}(m / \sqrt{n}) meta simple regret, frequentist algorithm ildeO(mn+m/n) ilde{O}(\sqrt{m} n + m/ \sqrt{n}).

CEI achieves convergence rates for constrained Bayesian optimization.

problem Constrained Bayesian optimization with theoretical convergence rates.
method Analyzing simple regret upper bound for CEI in RKHS and Gaussian process settings.
result CEI achieves convergence rates of t12logd+12(t)t^{-\frac{1}{2}}\log^{\frac{d+1}{2}}(t) and tν2ν+dlogν2ν+d(t)t^{\frac{-ν}{2ν+d}} \log^{\fracν{2ν+d}}(t) for squared exponential and Matérn kernels, respectively.