A locally-built, LLM-digested index of recent arXiv papers in quant finance, geometry/topology, and statistical ML — keyword search served straight from SQLite on this machine.
We consider testing and learning problems on causal Bayesian networks as defined by Pearl (Pearl, 2009). Given a causal Bayesian network M on a graph with n discrete variables and bounded in-degree and bounded `confounded components', we show that O(logn) interventions on an unknown causal Bayesian ne…
We consider a Bayesian method for learning the Bayesian network structure from complete data. Recently, Koivisto and Sood (2004) presented an algorithm that for any single edge computes its marginal posterior probability in O(n 2^n) time, where n is the number of attributes; the number of parents per attribute is bound…
We study the problem of learning Bayesian network structures from data. Koivisto and Sood (2004) and Koivisto (2006) presented algorithms that can compute the exact marginal posterior probability of a subnetwork, e.g., a single edge, in O(n2n) time and the posterior probabilities for all n(n-1) potential edges in O(n2n…
Evaluating the log determinant of a positive definite matrix is ubiquitous in machine learning. Applications thereof range from Gaussian processes, minimum-volume ellipsoids, metric learning, kernel learning, Bayesian neural networks, Determinental Point Processes, Markov random fields to partition functions of discret…
Herding and kernel herding are deterministic methods of choosing samples which summarise a probability distribution. A related task is choosing samples for estimating integrals using Bayesian quadrature. We show that the criterion minimised when selecting samples in kernel herding is equivalent to the posterior varianc…
Herding and kernel herding are deterministic methods of choosing samples which summarise a probability distribution. A related task is choosing samples for estimating integrals using Bayesian quadrature. We show that the criterion minimised when selecting samples in kernel herding is equivalent to the posterior varianc…
Bayesian optimisation (BO) is a well-known efficient algorithm for finding the global optimum of expensive, black-box functions. The current practical BO algorithms have regret bounds ranging from O(NlogN) to O(e−N), where N is the number of evaluations. This paper exp…
We show that the square Hellinger distance between two Bayesian networks on the same directed graph, G, is subadditive with respect to the neighborhoods of G. Namely, if P and Q are the probability distributions defined by two Bayesian networks on the same DAG, our inequality states that the square Hellinger di…
Gaussian processes (GPs) with derivatives are useful in many applications, including Bayesian optimization, implicit surface reconstruction, and terrain reconstruction. Fitting a GP to function values and derivatives at n points in d dimensions requires linear solves and log determinants with an ${n(d+1) \times n(d…
Bayesian optimization with Gaussian process as surrogate model has been successfully applied to analog circuit synthesis. In the traditional Gaussian process regression model, the kernel functions are defined explicitly. The computational complexity of training is O(N 3 ), and the computation complexity of prediction i…
Discovering interaction effects on a response of interest is a fundamental problem faced in biology, medicine, economics, and many other scientific disciplines. In theory, Bayesian methods for discovering pairwise interactions enjoy many benefits such as coherent uncertainty quantification, the ability to incorporate b…
In this paper, we consider Bayesian image denoising based on a Gaussian Markov random field (GMRF) model, for which we propose an new algorithm. Our method can solve Bayesian image denoising problems, including hyperparameter estimation, in O(n)-time, where n is the number of pixels in a given image. From the persp…
We extend the herding algorithm to continuous spaces by using the kernel trick. The resulting "kernel herding" algorithm is an infinite memory deterministic process that learns to approximate a PDF with a collection of samples. We show that kernel herding decreases the error of expectations of functions in the Hilbert …
The paper addresses frequentist regret of Linear Thompson Sampling in stochastic linear bandits.
problem The frequentist regret of Linear Thompson Sampling (LinTS) is worse than its Bayesian counterpart.
method The paper proves the fundamental nature of the frequentist regret bound for LinTS and proposes a data-driven version of LinTS to achieve minimax optimal frequentist regret.
result The frequentist regret bound for LinTS is O(ddT), which is the best possible under certain conditions.
Influence maximization, adaptive routing, and dynamic spectrum allocation all require choosing the right action from a large set of alternatives. Thanks to the advances in combinatorial optimization, these and many similar problems can be efficiently solved given an environment with known stochasticity. In this paper, …
Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) algorithms are ubiquitous in Bayesian computations. However, they need to access the full data set in order to evaluate the posterior density at every step of the algorithm. This results in a great computational burden in big data applications. In contrast to MCMC methods, Stochastic Gra…
We study contextual linear bandit problems under feature uncertainty, where the features are noisy and have missing entries. To address the challenges posed by this noise, we analyze Bayesian oracles given the observed noisy features. Our Bayesian analysis reveals that the optimal hypothesis can significantly deviate f…