Enhances Bayesian learning with rule-based evolutionary techniques.
problem Improving Bayesian inference with expert knowledge and data patterns.
method Combines Bayesian inference with rule-based systems and grammatical evolution.
result Automatically derives rules from data, improving point predictions and uncertainty quantification.
Bayesian learning rule unifies and generalizes various machine learning algorithms.
problem Machine learning algorithms are diverse and not always understood.
method Bayesian principles and natural gradients are used to derive algorithms.
result Derives a wide range of algorithms including classical and modern ones.
Improved Bayesian learning rule handles positive-definite constraints efficiently.
problem Bayesian learning rule struggles with positive-definite constraints.
method Proposes an improved rule using Riemannian gradient methods for block-coordinate natural parameterization.
result Outperforms existing methods without increased computation.
Bayesian model predicts sequences better than LSTMs by identifying underlying rules.
problem Current RNNs struggle to generalize from limited training data and identify underlying rules in sequences.
method Bayesian model that learns underlying concepts from sequences and generalizes to new data.
result Bayesian model predicts sequences better than traditional LSTMs.
RSI uses Bayesian inference to monitor compliance in rule-governed domains.
problem Structural obstacles in compliance monitoring, including unlabeled outcomes and selective withholding of evidence.
method Rule-State Inference (RSI) treats formalized rules as Bayesian priors and infers compliance states through mean-field variational inference.
result RSI delivers formal guarantees of adaptability, consistency, and convergence, validated on a synthetic enterprise benchmark.
Bayesian method infers local rules for collective animal movement.
problem Learn local rules governing long-term group behaviors.
method Bayesian Inverse Reinforcement Learning with Linearly-Solvable Markov Decision Process.
result Recover true costs and find value of collective movement.
New learning rule simplifies Bayesian updates for deep learning.
problem Bayesian learning rule's complexity and manifold constraints.
method Lie-group approach to simplify Bayesian updates.
result New algorithm learns sparse features in deep learning.
Bayesian learning rule trains binary neural networks effectively.
problem Training binary neural networks is challenging due to discrete optimization.
method Proposes the Bayesian learning rule to estimate Bernoulli weights.
result Obtains state-of-the-art performance and enables uncertainty estimation.
Paper proves Jeffrey's update rule minimizes relative entropy.
problem Improving Bayesian learning algorithms.
method More concise proof of Jeffrey's update rule.
result Jeffrey's update rule reduces relative entropy.
Proposes an alternative method to train RBMs with binary synapses using Bayesian learning rule.
problem Training RBMs with binary synapses is challenging due to discrete nature of synapses.
method Proposes an alternative optimization method using the Bayesian learning rule, updating natural parameters instead of expectation parameters.
result No additional clipping is needed as natural parameters take values in the entire real domain.
This research improves binary classification by balancing overfitting and generalization with a novel Bayesian approach.
problem Improving binary classification models to avoid overfitting and generalize well.
method Introduces a PAC-Bayes type learning rule with a balancing parameter λ to balance training error and KL divergence to a prior.
result A choice of λ ensures uniformly vanishing excess loss, even in the agnostic case, by under-regularizing or over-regularizing appropriately.
A new stopping rule based on E-values helps efficiently use sampling in Bayesian Deep Ensembles.
problem How long should sampling continue in Bayesian Deep Ensembles to yield significant improvements?
method Formulated as a sequential anytime-valid hypothesis test, using E-values to decide when to stop sampling.
result Only a fraction of the full-chain budget is often required for significant improvements.
We consider the problem of how decision making can be fair when the underlying probabilistic model of the world is not known with certainty. We argue that recent notions of fairness in machine learning need to explicitly incorporate parameter uncertainty, hence we introduce the notion of {\em Bayesian fairness} as a su…
In a recent paper [1] we introduced the Fuzzy Bayesian Learning (FBL) paradigm where expert opinions can be encoded in the form of fuzzy rule bases and the hyper-parameters of the fuzzy sets can be learned from data using a Bayesian approach. The present paper extends this work for selecting the most appropriate rule b…
A novel Bayesian computation method using importance weighting improves numerical stability and performance.
problem Bayesian computation stability and performance issues.
method Nonparametric approach via feature means, importance weighting, and kernel Bayes' rule.
result Importance weighted kernel Bayes' rule yields superior numerical stability and performance.
This work improves Bayesian Optimization for setting DNN hyper-parameters.
problem Manual setting of DNN hyper-parameters is error-prone and computationally expensive.
method Combines Bayesian Optimization with tuning rules to reduce search space and improve accuracy.
result Improves efficiency and accuracy of hyper-parameter tuning for deep neural networks.
Bayesian RL tackles uncertainty with deep generative models and sequential samplers.
problem Optimal decision-making in uncertain environments with limited data.
method Bayesian approach using deep generative models and prequential scoring rule for posterior inference. Policy learning via expected Thompson sampling.
result Improves policy learning in high-dimensional parameter spaces and continuous action spaces.
In this paper we propose a novel approach for learning from data using rule based fuzzy inference systems where the model parameters are estimated using Bayesian inference and Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) techniques. We show the applicability of the method for regression and classification tasks using synthetic data…
Bayesian neural networks are shown to be minimax and admissible under certain conditions.
problem Optimality of Bayesian neural networks in deep learning models.
method Analysis of decision rules induced by BNNs in the normal location model under quadratic loss.
result A hyperprior on the effective output variance yields a minimax and admissible decision rule.
We propose a probabilistic framework to directly insert prior knowledge in reinforcement learning (RL) algorithms by defining the behaviour policy as a Bayesian posterior distribution. Such a posterior combines task specific information with prior knowledge, thus allowing to achieve transfer learning across tasks. The …
Kernel Bayesian inference is a principled approach to nonparametric inference in probabilistic graphical models, where probabilistic relationships between variables are learned from data in a nonparametric manner. Various algorithms of kernel Bayesian inference have been developed by combining kernelized basic probabil…
Improving Bayesian filtering with strictly proper scoring rules
problem Bayesian filtering of partially and noisily observed dynamical systems
method Proper scoring ensemble filter (PSEF)
result Accurate approximation of challenging filtering distributions
Introduces a rule-based Bayesian regression for better uncertainty quantification and expert knowledge integration.
problem Handling regression problems with uncertainty quantification and expert intuition.
method Combines Bayesian inference and rule-based systems for better model performance.
result Improves model performance with better uncertainty quantification and point predictions.
VB uses natural gradients in information geometry.
problem Estimating or computing natural gradients in VB.
method Natural-gradient descent algorithm and Bayesian Learning Rule.
result Simplification of Bayes' rule and generalization of quadratic surrogates.
Bayesian framework for policy learning in decision problems.
problem Maximizing expected welfare in decision-making problems.
method Loss-based Bayesian updating and squared-loss surrogate for welfare maximization.
result General Bayes posterior over decision rules with Gaussian pseudo-likelihood interpretation.
Bayesian neural networks update beliefs with soft evidence, improving accuracy and calibration.
problem Updating neural network weights with uncertain or soft evidence.
method Developed two algorithms to approximate Jeffrey's rule for updating neural network weights.
result Jeffrey-based methods outperform traditional approaches in accuracy and calibration, especially in noisy data.
In this paper, we derive a Bayesian model order selection rule by using the exponentially embedded family method, termed Bayesian EEF. Unlike many other Bayesian model selection methods, the Bayesian EEF can use vague proper priors and improper noninformative priors to be objective in the elicitation of parameter prior…
Asynchronous cooperative learning rules ensure all agents converge to correct hypothesis.
problem Cooperative learning in networks with unreliable communication.
method Proposed robust cooperative learning rule for weak communication networks.
result All agents' beliefs exponentially decay to the correct hypothesis.
PVI seeks a posterior that makes predictions closer to true data, not approximating the Bayesian posterior.
problem Finding meaningful posterior distributions under model misspecification.
method Predictive variational inference (PVI) seeks an optimal posterior density for close predictive matching to true data.
result PVI learns a posterior that is not the same as the Bayesian posterior, but is closer to the true data generating process.
We aim to produce predictive models that are not only accurate, but are also interpretable to human experts. Our models are decision lists, which consist of a series of if...then... statements (e.g., if high blood pressure, then stroke) that discretize a high-dimensional, multivariate feature space into a series of sim…
Despite their great success in recent years, deep neural networks (DNN) are mainly black boxes where the results obtained by running through the network are difficult to understand and interpret. Compared to e.g. decision trees or bayesian classifiers, DNN suffer from bad interpretability where we understand by interpr…
Bayesian optimization stops when a solution is within ε of the optimum with high probability.
problem Stopping Bayesian optimization prematurely based on a probabilistic criterion.
method Introducing a (ε,δ)-criterion for stopping Bayesian optimization. result Bayesian optimization satisfies the (ε,δ)-criterion under mild assumptions. Kernel Bayes' rule has been proposed as a nonparametric kernel-based method to realize Bayesian inference in reproducing kernel Hilbert spaces. However, we demonstrate both theoretically and experimentally that the prediction result by kernel Bayes' rule is in some cases unnatural. We consider that this phenomenon is i…
This paper improves bandwidth selectors for SPBNs to enhance their performance.
problem Suboptimal density estimation and reduced predictive performance in SPBNs due to normal rule bandwidth selection.
method Theoretical framework for state-of-the-art bandwidth selectors (cross-validation and plug-in methods) are established and evaluated.
result Cross-validation selectors outperform the normal rule, especially in high sample size scenarios.
Machine learning finds knots that bound ribbon disks.
problem Detecting ribbon knots in topology.
method Bayesian optimization and reinforcement learning.
result Successfully detected many ribbon knots up to 70 crossings.
In this paper, we present a novel and general framework called {\it Maximum Entropy Discrimination Markov Networks} (MaxEnDNet), which integrates the max-margin structured learning and Bayesian-style estimation and combines and extends their merits. Major innovations of this model include: 1) It generalizes the extant …
Oblique BART improves tree-based predictions.
problem Axis-aligned decision rules in BART can be suboptimal.
method Developed an oblique version of BART using data-adaptive hyperplane partitions.
result Oblique BART outperformed axis-aligned BART and other tree methods on benchmarks.
PROWL uses robust reward estimates to improve ITR selection.
problem Reward uncertainty in ITR estimation leads to inflated performance.
method PAC-Bayesian framework with reward uncertainty certificates.
result PROWL achieves better robust treatment regime estimation.
Adaptive Bayesian learning aggregates experts to improve performance.
problem Bayesian online learning's performance depends on inferential choices.
method Treat Bayesian update rules as experts and aggregate them based on sequential predictive losses.
result The aggregate competes with the best expert in hindsight at a low aggregation cost.
HRTPP improves TPP interpretability and accuracy in medical event modeling.
problem Lack of interpretability in TPPs for medical event sequences.
method Hybrid-Rule Temporal Point Processes (HRTPP) integrating temporal logic rules and numerical features.
result HRTPP outperforms state-of-the-art interpretable TPPs in predictive performance and clinical interpretability.
This work investigates the case of a network of agents that attempt to learn some unknown state of the world amongst the finitely many possibilities. At each time step, agents all receive random, independently distributed private signals whose distributions are dependent on the unknown state of the world. However, it m…
Bayesian Tensor Network combines prior and data likelihood for efficient prediction and parameter estimation.
problem Overfitting and poor performance in Tensor Network models.
method Introduce prior distribution, use Laplace approximation for posterior predictive distribution, and propose stable initialization for parameter estimation.
result Reduces overfitting and improves performance of Tensor Network models.
This paper establishes the asymptotic consistency of the {\it loss-calibrated variational Bayes} (LCVB) method. LCVB was proposed in~\cite{LaSiGh2011} as a method for approximately computing Bayesian posteriors in a `loss aware' manner. This methodology is also highly relevant in general data-driven decision-making con…
SBAMDT uses adaptive soft splits to model complex decision boundaries.
problem Limited ability of standard decision trees to capture complex decision boundaries.
method Probabilistic additive decision tree model with adaptive soft multivariate splits.
result Demonstrated improved predictive performance on synthetic and real datasets.
Bayesian deep learning improves accuracy and calibration without sacrificing scalability.
problem Bayesian inference's potential for deep neural networks.
method Marginalization over optimization, using neural networks' inherent structure and inductive biases.
result Improvements in accuracy and calibration compared to standard training methods.
New decision-theoretic characterization separates belief and decision posteriors.
problem Understanding the conditions under which loss-based updating coincides with Bayesian updating.
method Decision-theoretic approach to distinguish belief and decision posteriors.
result Generalized Bayes coincides with ordinary Bayesian updating only if the loss is proportional to negative log-likelihood.
Bayesian model estimates ACT impact on pediatric AML survival.
problem Estimating ACT impact on survival in AML patients with treatment timing issues.
method Generative Bayesian semi-parametric model with Gamma Process priors.
result Posterior inference for ACT efficacy under dynamic rules.
We present a particle flow realization of Bayes' rule, where an ODE-based neural operator is used to transport particles from a prior to its posterior after a new observation. We prove that such an ODE operator exists. Its neural parameterization can be trained in a meta-learning framework, allowing this operator to re…