Bayesian networks with latent variables are characterized and their likelihoods compared.
problem Characterizing and comparing likelihoods of Bayesian networks with latent variables.
method Characterized likelihood function and empirical Bayesian network. Proved dominance of global maximum likelihood from empirical model.
result The global maximum likelihood of the original Bayesian network is attained if and only if parameters are consistent with empirical model.
A new two-step MH method for Bayesian EL computation.
problem Complex likelihood support in Bayesian EL.
method Hierarchical Metropolis Hastings with reversible jump MCMC.
result Improved sampling from BayesEL posteriors.
R package for Bayesian empirical likelihood sampling using HMC.
problem Sampling from non-convex Bayesian empirical likelihood posteriors.
method Hamiltonian Monte Carlo (HMC) algorithm for numerical integration.
result Efficient HMC sampling from BayesEL posteriors.
Bayesian method infers contextual bandit policies robustly.
problem Inference of contextual bandit policies in small sample sizes.
method Empirical likelihood for Bayesian inference.
result Accurate uncertainty measurements and policy comparison.
Bayesian framework uses AI-generated data to improve parameter estimation.
problem Parameter estimation in models with unknown or unspecified likelihood.
method Exponentially tilted empirical likelihood with Dirichlet process posterior.
result AI-generated data can provide useful regularization for parameter estimation.
A new ABC method uses variational approximations for efficient inference.
problem Computational challenges in Bayesian inference for complex models.
method Variational approximation for log-posterior, empirical likelihood for estimating expected log-likelihood, differential entropy estimation.
result Posterior consistency established for the proposed method.
This paper connects masked pre-training to Bayesian model selection.
problem Understanding the success of masked pre-training and its generalization.
method The paper shows masked pre-training corresponds to maximizing the marginal likelihood.
result Masked pre-training with a suitable scoring function maximizes the marginal likelihood.
Many scientifically well-motivated statistical models in natural, engineering and environmental sciences are specified through a generative process, but in some cases it may not be possible to write down a likelihood for these models analytically. Approximate Bayesian computation (ABC) methods, which allow Bayesian inf…
Bayesian Quadrature improves ensembling for neural networks with dispersed likelihood peaks.
problem Ensembling neural networks struggles with dispersed, narrow peaks in likelihood surfaces.
method Uses Bayesian Quadrature to construct weighted ensembles of architectures.
result Empirically outperforms state-of-the-art baselines in test likelihood, accuracy, and expected calibration error.
We consider Bayesian inference when only a limited number of noisy log-likelihood evaluations can be obtained. This occurs for example when complex simulator-based statistical models are fitted to data, and synthetic likelihood (SL) method is used to form the noisy log-likelihood estimates using computationally costly …
Two data-dependent information metrics are developed to quantify the information of the prior and likelihood functions within a parametric Bayesian model, one of which is closely related to the reference priors from Berger, Bernardo, and Sun, and information measure introduced by Lindley. A combination of theoretical, …
Introduces BPEL for EL, enhancing flexibility and using MCMC for inference.
problem Computational challenges in EL methods.
method Bayesian Penalized Empirical Likelihood (BPEL) framework with MCMC sampling.
result Enhanced flexibility and practicality of EL methods with MCMC.
Improves Bayesian predictive performance in misspecified models.
problem Misspecification gap between inferential and predictive risks.
method Develops a multi-sample loss (PACm) to bridge the gap. result Empirical study shows improved predictive distribution.
Paper uses learned summary statistics for Bayesian inference with difficult likelihood functions.
problem Difficult to obtain exact likelihood function for observation data and simulation model.
method Simulation-based inference with learned summary statistics, using Cressie-Read discrepancy criterion.
result Effective inference performed over selected sample sets of observation data.
This work improves bounds on Bayesian coreset quality.
problem Limitations of existing theoretical analysis of Bayesian coresets.
method Develops general upper and lower bounds on KL divergence.
result Demonstrates flexibility of new theoretical bounds in various models.
Likelihood-free methods are an established approach for performing approximate Bayesian inference for models with intractable likelihood functions. However, they can be computationally demanding. Bayesian synthetic likelihood (BSL) is a popular such method that approximates the likelihood function of the summary statis…
This research improves neural likelihood approximation for Bayesian inverse problems.
problem Challenges in modeling and inference for high-dimensional Bayesian inverse problems.
method Develops a strictly convex approximation framework for neural likelihood.
result Empirical minimizers converge to the true likelihood as sample size increases.
This work analyzes Gibbs samplers for Bayesian hierarchical models without dimensionality constraints.
problem Analyzing convergence properties of Gibbs samplers for Bayesian hierarchical models.
method Using Bayesian asymptotics and total variation mixing times, the study provides dimension-free convergence results.
result Dimension-free convergence results for Gibbs samplers targeting hierarchical models under random data-generating assumptions.
Bayesian network structure learning is often performed in a Bayesian setting, by evaluating candidate structures using their posterior probabilities for a given data set. Score-based algorithms then use those posterior probabilities as an objective function and return the maximum a posteriori network as the learned mod…
Given a set of possible models (e.g., Bayesian network structures) and a data sample, in the unsupervised model selection problem the task is to choose the most accurate model with respect to the domain joint probability distribution. In contrast to this, in supervised model selection it is a priori known that the chos…
Empirical Bayes method improves Gaussian sequence model inference.
problem Estimating parameters in correlated Gaussian sequence models.
method Maximum Composite Marginal Likelihood (CML) estimator, leveraging geometric Brascamp-Lieb inequality.
result CML estimator converges at rate \( n_*^{-1/2} \) in weighted Hellinger distance.
The paper examines VI for overparameterized BNNs, revealing a trade-off between likelihood and KL terms.
problem Critical issue in mean-field VI training for overparameterized BNNs.
method Theoretical and empirical study of overparameterized two-layer BNNs using VI.
result A trade-off between likelihood and KL terms in overparameterized regime, with KL scaling crucial.
SC improves robustness in model comparison for misspecified models.
problem Model misspecification challenges in amortized Bayesian inference.
method Parameter posterior-based methods augmented with SC training.
result SC improves robustness under model misspecification.
Neural Empirical Bayes estimates source distributions from noisy simulations.
problem Estimating source distributions from noisy, simulated data.
method Uses neural density estimators to estimate a prior or source distribution over uncorrupted samples, then performs posterior inference.
result Recovering ground truth source distributions up to symmetries.
Active learning method for ABC statistics selection reduces expert work and improves posterior estimates.
problem Handling intractable likelihood functions in models with domain knowledge.
method Active learning method for selecting summary statistics in ABC.
result Better posterior estimates than existing methods, especially with limited simulation budget.
The intention of this paper is to estimate a Bayesian distribution-free chain ladder (DFCL) model using approximate Bayesian computation (ABC) methodology. We demonstrate how to estimate quantities of interest in claims reserving and compare the estimates to those obtained from classical and credibility approaches. In …
Stochastic variational inference for Bayesian deep neural network (DNN) requires specifying priors and approximate posterior distributions over neural network weights. Specifying meaningful weight priors is a challenging problem, particularly for scaling variational inference to deeper architectures involving high dime…
Paper develops efficient Bayesian inference for enzymatic SRNs with LNA metamodel.
problem Bayesian inference for nonlinear SDE-based mechanistic models with partial observations and measurement errors.
method Interpretable Bayesian updating LNA metamodel and efficient posterior sampling.
result Proposed approach demonstrates promising performance in empirical studies.
ABI bypasses likelihood intractability with nonparametric distribution matching.
problem Approximate Bayesian computation's inefficiency in high-dimensional settings and under diffuse priors.
method Adaptive Bayesian Inference (ABI) compares posterior distributions directly using nonparametric distribution matching and MSW distance.
result ABI significantly outperforms other methods in high-dimensional or dependent observation regimes.
Revises logistic-softmax likelihood for Bayesian meta-learning in few-shot classification.
problem Inherent uncertainty in logistic-softmax leads to suboptimal performance in meta-learning.
method Redesigns logistic-softmax likelihood with a temperature parameter for better control of prior confidence.
result Achieves well-calibrated uncertainty estimates and comparable/superior performance on benchmark datasets.
A new method improves SNPE for intractable likelihood models.
problem Simulation-based models with intractable likelihoods.
method Adaptive calibration kernel and variance reduction techniques.
result The proposed method provides a better approximation of the posterior.
We exhibit a strong link between frequentist PAC-Bayesian risk bounds and the Bayesian marginal likelihood. That is, for the negative log-likelihood loss function, we show that the minimization of PAC-Bayesian generalization risk bounds maximizes the Bayesian marginal likelihood. This provides an alternative explanatio…
Flexible Bayesian approach for generalized linear models, especially for sparse logistic regression.
problem Sparse logistic regression challenges in machine learning.
method Empirical Bayes approach with mean-field variational inference, tuning-free and scalable.
result Superior predictive performance in sparse logistic regression compared to existing methods.
Develops methods for constructing likelihoods and priors for Bayesian networks.
problem Learning parameters and structure of Bayesian networks from limited data.
method Introduces assumptions for constructing likelihoods and priors from small assessments.
result Allows construction of likelihoods and priors for a wide range of network structures.
Jointly learns feature and sample relevancies for robust sparse recovery.
problem Sparse recovery sensitivity to data contaminants like outliers or misspecified noise.
method Jointly learns feature and sample relevancies via marginal likelihood optimization.
result Consistent sparse and robust prediction models across diverse tasks.
This paper introduces NPR, a technique to improve Bayesian inference for multi-modal, high-dimensional simulations.
problem Challenges in Bayesian inference for multi-modal, high-dimensional simulations.
method Introduces Neural Posterior Regularization (NPR) to enforce exploration of input parameter space.
result Empirically validated that NPR significantly improves performance on various simulation tasks.
Framework for Bayesian inference using GP emulated MH sampler for noisy likelihoods.
problem Approximate Bayesian inference with limited noisy log-likelihood evaluations.
method Gaussian process emulates MH sampler for log-likelihood evaluations; sequential experimental design selects evaluation points.
result Approximate sampler is sample-efficient and robust to GP assumptions.
Bayesian autoencoders improve OOD detection by addressing Bernoulli likelihood issues.
problem Out-of-distribution (OOD) detection fails with Bernoulli likelihood for certain datasets.
method Proposes Bayesian autoencoders and alternative likelihood models to fix the issue.
result Bayesian autoencoders and alternative likelihood models improve OOD detection accuracy.
Given a set of possible models (e.g., Bayesian network structures) and a data sample, in the unsupervised model selection problem the task is to choose the most accurate model with respect to the domain joint probability distribution. In contrast to this, in supervised model selection it is a priori known that the chos…
Models for which the likelihood function can be evaluated only up to a parameter-dependent unknown normalising constant, such as Markov random field models, are used widely in computer science, statistical physics, spatial statistics, and network analysis. However, Bayesian analysis of these models using standard Monte…
Bayesian principles improve neural additive models for better feature selection and uncertainty.
problem Lack of calibrated uncertainties and feature selection in neural additive models.
method Augmenting NAMs with Bayesian principles to provide credible intervals, feature selection, and interaction ranking.
result Improved performance on tabular datasets and real-world medical tasks.
New method improves SBI efficiency and scalability.
problem Scalability issues in SBI methods for large datasets.
method Langevin dynamics with score matching, exploiting likelihood structure.
result Structured score network enhances statistical efficiency and scalability.
A new method improves likelihood-free Bayesian inference by transforming summary statistics and using efficient Variational Bayes.
problem Incorrectly assuming normally distributed summary statistics in likelihood-free Bayesian inference.
method Wasserstein Gaussianization transformation combined with robust BSL and efficient Variational Bayes.
result Highly efficient and reliable approximate Bayesian inference for likelihood-free problems.
Improved model-based estimation through tempered Bayes filter.
problem Improving predictive accuracy in partially-observable stochastic systems.
method Developed tempered Bayes filter combining likelihood and full posterior tempering.
result Tempered Bayes filter achieves improved predictive performance over the Bayes filter baseline.
In this paper we revisit the weighted likelihood bootstrap, a method that generates samples from an approximate Bayesian posterior of a parametric model. We show that the same method can be derived, without approximation, under a Bayesian nonparametric model with the parameter of interest defined as minimising an expec…
ABC method uses machine learning for likelihood-free inference.
problem Statistical inference in simulator-based models with intractable likelihoods.
method Direct comparison of empirical distributions via KL divergence estimator and contrastive learning.
result Asymptotic normality of ABC posterior distributions with properly scaled exponential kernel.
Bayesian inference uses Stein discrepancy for robustness in intractable likelihoods.
problem Intractable likelihoods in Bayesian inference.
method Generalised Bayesian inference with Stein discrepancy as the loss function.
result Robust generalised posteriors with closed form or accessible using MCMC.
In a Gaussian graphical model, the conditional independence between two variables are characterized by the corresponding zero entries in the inverse covariance matrix. Maximum likelihood method using the smoothly clipped absolute deviation (SCAD) penalty (Fan and Li, 2001) and the adaptive LASSO penalty (Zou, 2006) hav…