arXiv research

Enhances UPSA to reduce noise in financial data.

We perform a comparative analysis of the Chinese stock market around the occurrence of the 2008 crisis based on the random matrix analysis of high-frequency stock returns of 1228 stocks listed on the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock exchanges. Both raw correlation matrix and partial correlation matrix with respect to the ma…

Low-rank tensor regression, a new model class that learns high-order correlation from data, has recently received considerable attention. At the same time, Gaussian processes (GP) are well-studied machine learning models for structure learning. In this paper, we demonstrate interesting connections between the two, espe…

This article investigates the correlation structure of the global crude oil market using the daily returns of 71 oil price time series across the world from 1992 to 2012. We identify from the correlation matrix six clusters of time series exhibiting evident geographical traits, which supports Weiner's (1991) regionaliz…

We analyze the spectral properties of correlation matrices between distinct statistical systems. Such matrices are intrinsically non symmetric, and lend themselves to extend the spectral analyses usually performed on standard Pearson correlation matrices to the realm of complex eigenvalues. We employ some recent random…

Measures collectivity in financial covariances and correlations to reveal trends and precursors.

Through simple analytical calculations and numerical simulations, we demonstrate the generic existence of a self-organized macroscopic state in any large multivariate system possessing non-vanishing average correlations between a finite fraction of all pairs of elements. The coexistence of an eigenvalue spectrum predic…

Average Oracle outperforms DCC+NLS in portfolio optimization.

Method identifies causal interactions between time series using extreme eigenvalue variability.

An important application of Lebesgue integral quadrature arXiv:1807.06007 is developed. Given two random processes, $f(x)$ and $g(x)$, two generalized eigenvalue problems can be formulated and solved. In addition to obtaining two Lebesgue quadratures (for $f$ and $g$) from two eigenproblems, the projections of $f$- and…

We revisit the index leverage effect, that can be decomposed into a volatility effect and a correlation effect. We investigate the latter using a matrix regression analysis, that we call `Principal Regression Analysis' (PRA) and for which we provide some analytical (using Random Matrix Theory) and numerical benchmarks.…

Optimal CATE estimation with structured contrast functions using KRR.

We study the problem of detecting an abrupt change to the signal covariance matrix. In particular, the covariance changes from a "white" identity matrix to an unknown spiked or low-rank matrix. Two sequential change-point detection procedures are presented, based on the largest and the smallest eigenvalues of the sampl…

Study on eigenvalue distribution of correlated time series, showing deformation of Marchenko-Pastur distribution.

In addressing the question of the time scales characteristic for the market formation, we analyze high frequency tick-by-tick data from the NYSE and from the German market. By using returns on various time scales ranging from seconds or minutes up to two days, we compare magnitude of the largest eigenvalue of the corre…

This study analyzes the correlation structure of global agricultural futures markets using RMT.

We uncover a new anomaly in asset pricing that is linked to the remuneration: the more a company spends on salaries and benefits per employee, the better its stock performs, on average. Moreover, the companies adopting similar remuneration policies share a common risk, which is comparable to that of the value premium. …

Signatures of universality are detected by comparing individual eigenvalue distributions and level spacings from financial covariance matrices to random matrix predictions. A chopping procedure is devised in order to produce a statistical ensemble of asset-price covariances from a single instance of financial data sets…

We investigate the daily correlation present among market indices of stock exchanges located all over the world in the time period Jan 1996 - Jul 2009. We discover that the correlation among market indices presents both a fast and a slow dynamics. The slow dynamics reflects the development and consolidation of globaliz…

We confirm universal behaviors such as eigenvalue distribution and spacings predicted by Random Matrix Theory (RMT) for the cross correlation matrix of the daily stock prices of Tokyo Stock Exchange from 1993 to 2001, which have been reported for New York Stock Exchange in previous studies. It is shown that the random …

We investigate the statistical properties of the correlation matrix between individual stocks traded in the Korean stock market using the random matrix theory (RMT) and observe how these affect the portfolio weights in the Markowitz portfolio theory. We find that the distribution of the correlation matrix is positively…

Study on eigenvalue distribution of correlated time series deforming the semi-circle law.

Logit correction improves model performance by correcting spurious correlations.

Improved portfolio optimization using Kendall-like correlation coefficients.

Study detects signal in financial stock correlations using phase-ordering kinetics.

Improved eigenvalue distribution method for financial data.

The correlation matrix is the key element in optimal portfolio allocation and risk management. In particular, the eigenvectors of the correlation matrix corresponding to large eigenvalues can be used to identify the market mode, sectors and style factors. We investigate how these eigenvalues depend on the time scale of…

We study a $(k+1)$-dimensional hyperbolic space of a negative constant sectional curvature $κ=-1/ρ^2$. Let $λ$ be a real eigenvalue and $f_λ (x)$ be an eigenfunction of the hyperbolic Laplacian assuming a non-zero value at $x_0$. Then the average value of $f_λ(x)$ over any sphere centered at $x_0$ allows to identify th…

The cross correlation matrix between equities comprises multiple interactions between traders with varying strategies and time horizons. In this paper, we use the Maximum Overlap Discrete Wavelet Transform to calculate correlation matrices over different timescales and then explore the eigenvalue spectrum over sliding …

In this study, we attempted to determine how eigenvalues change, according to random matrix theory (RMT), in stock market data as the number of stocks comprising the correlation matrix changes. Specifically, we tested for changes in the eigenvalue properties as a function of the number and type of stocks in the correla…

Improved stochastic Halpern iteration for fixed-point approximation in normed spaces.

The dynamics of the equal-time cross-correlation matrix of multivariate financial time series is explored by examination of the eigenvalue spectrum over sliding time windows. Empirical results for the S&P 500 and the Dow Jones Euro Stoxx 50 indices reveal that the dynamics of the small eigenvalues of the cross-correlat…

The paper improves count data regression models for overdispersed data.

Using Random Matrix Theory one can derive exact relations between the eigenvalue spectrum of the covariance matrix and the eigenvalue spectrum of its estimator (experimentally measured correlation matrix). These relations will be used to analyze a particular case of the correlations in financial series and to show that…

The paper analyzes Nordic stock markets' correlation structures and regime shifts.

We study some properties of eigenvalue spectra of financial correlation matrices. In particular, we investigate the nature of the large eigenvalue bulks which are observed empirically, and which have often been regarded as a consequence of the supposedly large amount of noise contained in financial data. We challenge t…

Oracle inequalities and variable selection properties for the Lasso in linear models have been established under a variety of different assumptions on the design matrix. We show in this paper how the different conditions and concepts relate to each other. The restricted eigenvalue condition (Bickel et al., 2009) or the…

Non-linear shrinkage isn't optimal for portfolio optimization, especially when asset dependence is non-stationary.

Study non-asymptotic bounds on correlation in high-dimensional linear systems, revealing invariant subspaces and bottlenecks.

We analyzed cross-correlations between price fluctuations of global financial indices (20 daily stock indices over the world) and local indices (daily indices of 200 companies in the Korean stock market) by using random matrix theory (RMT). We compared eigenvalues and components of the largest and the second largest ei…

We investigate the computational complexity of several basic linear algebra primitives, including largest eigenvector computation and linear regression, in the computational model that allows access to the data via a matrix-vector product oracle. We show that for polynomial accuracy, $Θ(d)$ calls to the oracle are nece…

New averaging technique speeds up Newton method convergence.

We analyze cross-correlations between price fluctuations of different stocks using methods of random matrix theory (RMT). Using two large databases, we calculate cross-correlation matrices C of returns constructed from (i) 30-min returns of 1000 US stocks for the 2-yr period 1994--95 (ii) 30-min returns of 881 US stock…

In this technical report, we discuss several sampling algorithms for Determinantal Point Processes (DPP). DPPs have recently gained a broad interest in the machine learning and statistics literature as random point processes with negative correlation, i.e., ones that can generate a "diverse" sample from a set of items.…

We derive the exact form of the eigenvalue spectra of correlation matrices derived from a set of time-shifted, finite Brownian random walks (time-series). These matrices can be seen as random, real, asymmetric matrices with a special structure superimposed due to the time-shift. We demonstrate that the associated eigen…

Federated learning is the centralized training of statistical models from decentralized data on mobile devices while preserving the privacy of each device. We present a robust aggregation approach to make federated learning robust to settings when a fraction of the devices may be sending corrupted updates to the server…

New model-free RL algorithm tackles robust average-reward problems with finite sample complexity analysis.

This paper studies the lower bound complexity for the optimization problem whose objective function is the average of $n$ individual smooth convex functions. We consider the algorithm which gets access to gradient and proximal oracle for each individual component. For the strongly-convex case, we prove such an algorith…